It may be true that the average temperature isn't much different between Italy and Uruguay, but Uruguay seemed to cope pretty easily in the Confed cup where Italy and Spain struggled noticably. Spain wilted after bossing the first hour of their game with Uruguay and similarly Italy in their game against Japan looked out on their feet in the last half an hour.

I think humiditity may be a more important factor than just heat, and the combination of the two will be hardest of all.

just read there will be 3minute water breaks during games if temp above 32degrees ffs slow games

you fellas are brain washed watching suarez in the an overated league - will be funny to watch when he fails badly ..cannot wait


anyway fellas dont be bitter , i just put up proper bets here...this is strong ..just bet this stuff at different books and thank me later

ability matters far more than weather conditions. the team with the best players will almost certainly win.

it's difficult to see past spain. they've been there and done it all. they're winners. they have proven ability and are under no pressure. lets face it they don't owe anyone anything. no one will dare complain if they fail to win, and looking around there are no outstanding sides. the argies look good on paper but never deliver. brazil are nothing special. who else? germany, holland and italy aren't good enough to beat spain as we have seen. anyone else? i cant think of any... 


so to recap ... a settled team with a proven and settled style of football - lots of ability - under no pressure - proven winners - wont mind the conditions


spain will win the wc

Well we've taken our positions, and we're entrenched. There's no point going over old ground repeatedly, but I wish to point out for the record my belief that Xavi and Iniesta are past their best, Spain will be found out by a more mobile outfit at some stage and won't win the World Cup.

If they do I'll hold my hands up and say I was wrong. Won't be the first time after all.

mary reckons brazil to win it.

World Cup Outright Bets

Those who have read my group analyses may already have an idea on who I see as likely winners, but here’s my look at the favourites.

I can see why some people don’t rate Brazil - they don’t seem to have the stars of recent years, and some of their key players haven’t had the best of seasons. There have also been loads of rumours of the lack of support for this tournament, and bad organisation. I’ve heard talk about the pressure of being at home as well. But the way I look at it is this – the Confederations Cup gave us a big clue of how this tournament will go. The Brazil squad with its lack of stars is perfect to get the job done, and in Big Phil Scolari they have the perfect manager. Loads of Brazil’s players leave their club form far behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I look at Brazil’s team and I like every part of it, where other teams seem to have weakness in some positions. Moreover, like the London Olympics, once this tournament gets going the public will get on board, big time! The atmosphere for the Confederations Cup final against Spain was astonishing, it lifted the Brazil team and they will get that and more match after match in this World Cup. Anyone that beats Brazil will have to do it in Brazil’s back yard, and I don’t know who is capable of that. They have a really friendly group, and if they don’t win it comfortably it will be a big shock. They will probably play Holland or Chile in the second round, which isn’t ideal, but I’d expect them to beat either. A quarter final against the Group C winners (Columbia?) or Group D runners up (Italy? England?) awaits, but that will in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and would be a tough ask for a European side. By the semi-finals they will be on a roll and this tournament will be buidling to a crescendo. Semi-finals and final could be against anyone but it will presumably be the crème-de-la-crème. Home advantage will be a massive factor at this stage and all being well I’d expect to see Brazil a very short price. They are my idea of the winners and will be my main bet.

Argentina have the best player in the world in my eyes in Messi, and have talent all over the pitch. I expect them to score a lot of goals but I think they are vulnerable against the very good sides. I backed them 4 years ago and was ultra-confident after the group stages that they would get the job done but they got turned over by a supremely professional German team and all the talent in the world is nothing if you can’t find a team and formation that suits. The suspicion has to remain that Argentina will not be as secure defensively as other top sides. A Brazil v Argentina final would be an amazing spectacle and while that could happen I think the semis might be where Argentina’s tournament ends.

Germany and Spain probably represent the best European sides on paper. Spain have a fairly tough group featuring Holland and Chile but I would expect them to get through it. This group have been on the go a long time though, and I expect Spain to suffer defeat before the semi finals. Their midfield has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the world for years but Xavi and Iniesta are no spring chickens and possible knockout games in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and Salvador may prove their undoing. Germany are rightly perceived as real challengers, they have a great combination of World Cup pedigree and a top side. They do have a tough group in terms of quality of opposition, the miles they have to travel and the conditions they’ll play in. If they get through the group they’ll be very dangerous but at the price I’m happy to oppose them. I’m not sure that Gomez or Hofland will score them enough goals for them to threaten the best sides in this tournament.

Belgium are next favourites, and when you look at their team and draw they could go a long way. At 20/1 they’re short enough now though, but well done to those who got on at fancy prices. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay will all have their fans due to it being a home continent WC. Chile are without Arturo Vidal though, which tempers my enthusiasm for them. Also, Chile and Colombia do not really get to play European sides in the most hot and humid venues so you wonder how much of an advantage a home continent WC really is. Add in Colombia missing Falcao and I’m not sure they really represent a betting proposition as the big prices have all gone. Uruguay are a different case though in my eyes. They don’t seem to have any major injury concerns, have been there and done that getting to the semi-finals last time. They have genuine class in Suarez and Cavani and face Italy in Natal which could be to their advantage. Spain in the quarter finals would be the biggest potential blot on the landscape but they represent a big danger to all.

The other sides I am interested in backing are France and Portugal. I think both these teams have the potential to go a long way in this tournament. France have strength throughout the team, a decent-looking group and have no issues with playing in difficult conditions. Portugal have a cracking looking side, and if Ronaldo fires can go a long way. They have a tough group but I think they can win it and have a very successful tournament. They may have an advantage over other sides from being in a Portugese-speaking country, and I want them on board. The issue for me with these two sides is that if they both win (or come second in) their groups they are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals. Because of this I have decided to just go with Portugal and leave France (reluctantly) unbacked.

Bets

To win 2014 World Cup
Brazil 3/1 General Those who know me will know I rarely back favourites for anything, preferring to look for something at a bigger price. But I am convinced that Brazil have the strongest all round team, even though they don’t necessarily have the best players in each position. I have had my biggest bet on Brazil at 3/1, although I have held some back as I do anticipate offers once the season ends. I will be hoping that some firms go 4/1 or bigger and I will be looking to take advantage of this.

Uruguay 28/1 Coral (with money back if Brazil/Argentina win) Of all the bigger priced South American sides Uruguay are the ones who have fewest questions to answer. The have unquestionable ability, track record, winning mentality and if they get through the group, which I think they will, they will be a tough ask for anyone. Spain in the quarters is a potential blot on the landscape, but I think they can overcome that hurdle and go a long way.

Portugal 33/1 General  Not a one-man team by any means but Portugal have Ronaldo and he is capable of beating any opposition  by himself. That shouldn’t be necessary, as Portugal have an excellent side and playing this tournament in a Portugese speaking country may make this feel a bit like a home world cup for them.

To make the quarter finals
Japan 6/1 General
Ghana 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook
With a (1,2 ¼) book in a 32 team tournament there is little point in backing outsiders each way. If you do fancy a couple of long shots to progress further than  their odds would suggest, most books are pricing up the “to make the quarters” markets. The two I am going to back in this are Japan and Ghana. They are priced up at 6/1 and 10/1 respectively. Japan have the easier group on paper, and if everything goes to form they would likely be underdogs in their second round games but they only need to win one knockout match for these bets to land.

Top Goalscorer and Player of the Tournament
David Luiz 66/1 POT
Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer

I’m not a big one for this sort of bets. I’ll never forget having an each way double on Baros 50/1 and the Czech Republic 18/1 as top scorer/winners in Euro 2000 and being sicker than the Czechs when Greece scored with the last kick of the game in the semi-final. It’s just a small each way bet on the top goalscorer market for me. Honda will play and take free kicks. He has a decent record for Japan and is a very nice price. In the POT market I’ve gone for a defender. Not normally a good idea and Luiz’s reputation isn’t great in Britain but the Portugese, Brazilians and Spanish love him. He’s going to be a starter for the home side and favourites and he’s extremely noticeable. I can’t get the image of Luiz lifting the trophy out of my head and I had to back him at the price.

Not sure about Portugal enjoying the support of the locals; colonial resentment and all that.

Not knocking Portugal but that 2004 side was better than the present one; Figo, Rui Costa, Deco, Carvalho, an emerging R0naldo etc etc etc...and at home.

Knight Rider, the problem with your theory is the Confederations Cup is nothing more than a friendly tournament that no one really takes seriously, except maybe for the host nation because it's in their own back-yard. Spain are notoriously poor in friendlies, everyone can beat them when the fixture means nothing. However, in competitive games it is very different. No one can beat them. If Brazil defeat Spain in the WC then fair enough but I just don't think they're good enough.

I remember France in the 2002 WC and they were actually very unlucky. They outplayed the opposition but couldn't get the ball in the net. Hitting the woodwork several times. It was one of those where had they scored one they would have scored 3 or 4. Zidane was injured, missed the first 2 games and was rushed back for the 3rd game when he wasn't fit to play. A huge loss for any side.

But that doesn't matter anyway because Spain are not France. As we know France relied heavily on Zidane. Spain don't rely on one player, they are a proper team where the individual is only one cog in the machine. And that's a great way to describe Spain... they are a machine that destroys nations.

As I said before age might catch up with Spain, but until I see it with my own eyes I expect them to do what they always do...win.

looking better all the time now for costa rica deriative bets i put up page 2, smash these prop bets

told u fellas about that uruguay forward - looks like hes had a very hard season it came up on him now which always happens to strikers who have had an above average season ...not a massive shock

cr7 will suck in the wc - why ,not sure he has the hunger -  he will be pretty happy with the champs lg as i said i seen an interview with him the other day , was not positive at all about wc

thankyou

reminder to all who bet outright on betfair from page 2 , please wait on the outright market many teams will be pushed out as the big players enter the market, since last week 90% of the teams have moved out

different when a player get injured then certain teams in same group will move in - so wait on outsiders in particular

Thanks for all the hard work; much appreciated and definitely made me think twice / to strengthen my confidence in certain bets

Main bets so far -

Group B - Dual Forecast Spain/Chile 2.88
          Quadcast      Spain/Chile/Holland/Australia   5.2
Group C - Japan Qualify 2.1-2.2
Group D - Dual Forecast England/Italy 3
Group E - Dual Forecast Ecuador/France 2.96

Winner
Germany 7.4  /  Argentina 5.8

Outside Bets

Top Scorer
Aguero  18 , Higuain  22 , Ibisevic  170

Tournament Hat-trick?  No 4.2

Group B
Dual Forecast  England / Costa Rica   46
Rock Bottom    Uruguay                11

good chance i reckon

Twitter has just went mad with rumours Ribery is out.

massive drift on France if those rumours are true..

he is their best player

My money is on Spain £25 at coral, money back if Brazil or Argentina win it,get on!