World Cup 2014
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World Cup Preview
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To be fair to Iran they did top the group and beat South Korea home and away in qualifying plus they are also the WR number one nation by FIFA in Asia. Another bit of trivia for you. They received the five biggest attendances of any nation in World Cup qualifying. So I would say from both perspectives they definitely deserve to be there.
Of every nation at the WC they look to have the weakest squad on paper, but results and rankings say otherwise, plus they have an excellent manager. They conceded just 2 goals in their final qualifying group, plus Carlos Queiros's Portugal conceded fewest goals in South Africa four years ago. I'd say they will park the bus well. So whereas you've got probably the two most attacking teams in the tournament you might well have the most negative up against them. Iran v Nigeria won't be pretty and if they are good enough I think there is every chance Iran can frustrate Nigeria in their opener and nick a win Mourinho Style. The Arg/BH/Iran 1-2-3 looks a decent price at 9/1 to me. If they get a draw with Nigeria and it comes down to gd with them at the bottom their more cautious approach might see them prevail. I'm also on the 7/1 most goals, despite Iran being so defensive, as it's too big a price with the two most attack minded teams in the group. |
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 Group H Belgium: Mogi das Cruzes  Best price = 20/1 FIFA's key players On paper, Belgium can call upon an armada of stars, all plying their trade in Europe’s most prestigious championships. The depth of their talent pool is striking, with Nacer Chadli threatening to eclipse crowd favourite Eden Hazard before the latter has approached anything near his peak. Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois and Toby Alderweireld are the latest stars to emerge, while the likes of Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen, Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Steven Defour have already established themselves as senior figures. My key player: Vincent Kompany  Coach: Marc Wilmots Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Mexico 1986 (Fourth place), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Antwerp 1920 (Winners) Algeria: Sorocaba   Best price = 2,500/1 FIFA's key players Madjid Bougherra is a key figure at the back, and he scored the all-important winner in the second leg against Burkina Faso. Sofiane Feghouli is an exciting attacking midfielder, while Medhi Lacen holds things down in front of the defence. Islam Slimani emerged as the most prolific option in attack during qualifying. My key player: Sofiane Feghouli  Coach: Vahid Halilhodzic Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Spain 1982, Mexico 1986, South Africa 2010 (Group stages) Russia: Itu   Best price = 100/1 FIFA's key players This latest Russian side is built on solid defensive foundations. Goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev did not miss a single minute of the qualifying competition and conceded just five goals during the course of it, while Sergey Ignashevich marshalled the defence with aplomb. Yet Fabio Capello’s most prized assets can be found in what is a technically gifted and astute midfield unit, where Roman Shirokov and Victor Fayzulin have continued to hone the partnership they have forged at Zenit St Petersburg, scoring six goals between them in the qualifiers. Perhaps not surprisingly, the team’s top scorer was Kerzhakov. Though not always a starter, the Zenit striker helped himself to five goals during the campaign, the most important of them being that winner against the Portuguese. A lethal finisher, the former Sevilla man could wreak havoc in Brazil. My key player: Igor Akinfeev  Current coach: Fabio Capello Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup England 1966 (Fourth place) Korea Republic: Foz do Iguacu   Best price: 500/1 FIFA's key players The squad's make-up kept changing during the qualifying and under new coach Hong Myungbo, a new-look team has taken shape. A series of emerging stars, notably German-based Son Heungmin and Koo Jacheol, have graduated into the team's backbone force. Bolton Wanderers' Lee Chungyong is the new man wearing the captain's armband and home-based Kim Shinwook and Lee Keunho are proven goal-scorers. My key player: Young-Gwon Kim  Current coach: Hong Myungbo Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan 2002 (Fourth place) Group H Summary Belgium have a staggering amount of quality throughout their team. When you look at names like Courtois, Kompany, Alderweired, Hazard, Fellaini, Witsel and Lukaku it's easy to see why they are favourites for Group H and 5th favourites overall. They are plenty short enough now at 20/1, but they are my ideas of Group winners here. The draw has been fairly kind to them, and they will play at three favourable locations. Their base of Mogi des Cruzes is perfect for their three group games and they won't experience Brazil's hot and humid parts in this group. Algeria have plenty of players in European leagues, and whilst they will probably think this group represents a decent opportunity to go through, I think it is a tough group and can see Algeria finishing bottom. Russialook a different proposition to previous years under Capello. Gone are the days when they had a squad full of players from Western Europe. This group almost all play in the strong Russian league, and that might be a good thing as Russia have seriously underperformed in recent World Cups. But it means Russia are tough side to figure out. This group could work out as a two horse race between the Russians and Koreans to qualify with Belgium. I'm surprised the bookies favour the Russians so strongly (1/2) and I think Korea may represent a little value to qualify at 15/8. Korea don't have the star names of Japan, or even previous Korea sides, but they have enough quality to be taken seriously by everyone in this group, they've experience of South and Central America and I think they could cause a small shock by getting through to the knockout. Suggested Bets Korea to qualify 15/8 |
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My bets on the group stages
Cameroon to qualify from Group A 5/1 Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1 Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10 Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4 Uruguay to win group D 15/8 Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1 No bet from Group E Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1 Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less Lay Germany to qualify from Group G at 1.18 Ghana to qualify from Group G 3/1 Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8 |
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mary.any1-any idea on the ball being used,was it the last wc-used a flyer and all the opening games v lowscoring
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great write up even if i dont agree with it all!
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thanks
 don't know about the ball rommel, sorry |
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thanks for that MC1 - i take from this the factual info , very nice of you
most of your bets are ok -chile not sure without key player..no chance here..korea...if you watched them over last 2 yrs they've been diabolical... like to keep debate going here - will put up soem bets ive made after ive got them all in which will be in next day or so... |
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Nice on KG. Going to put my outrights up shortly along with a few other bets, but just finalising them.
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marychain, you make some interesting points in your assessments but I have to disagree with you about Spain. It seems you have written off their chances because Barcelona had a bad season. I think it's very naive to believe that Iniesta and Xavi are past it. I am sure they will prove you wrong.
Spain's style of football will help them enormously in these conditions, they are all about possession football and keeping their shape, an incredibly difficult team to play against. Opponents just cant get the ball or keep the ball. Even Holland became so frustrated they resorted to kicking in the last WC final. The way Spain keep the ball and let the ball do all the work means they will conserve lots of energy while their opponents run around like headless chickens, exhausting themselves in the process. It's like playing against a brick wall. I just cant see any team beating Spain in a competitive match. They destroyed Italy in the Euro's Final. They beat Holland 1-0 in the last WC final but they were so superior it might as well have been 5-0. They have no equal in world football. |
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I think France will be the biggest flops in this WC. In my experience the world tends to punish stupidity and any manager who refuses to play their best players definitely qualifies as stupid. I predict an embarrassing early exit for France. When you play the best you need your best players. Deschamp and France are about to be taught that painful lesson. You just cant get away with that kind of stupidity at this level.
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If we were talking about 2008 Spain or 2010 Spain or maybe even 2012 Spain then fair enough but this team have been on the go a long, long time and time waits for no man. I saw an aging Spain in the Confederations Cup, and you can talk about their keep-ball suiting them in the conditions but if you think back to the Uruguay/Spain Confed Cup game last year in Recife Spain wilted badly towards the end despite having almost all the possession for the first hour and racing into a 2-goal lead. Since then Spain have aged and Uruguay's players have come to their peak. This is all in my opinion.
There's a good chance those two sides play each other in Salvador in the Quarter-Final. Spain will be massive favourites but Uruguay will know that if they can keep it close for the first hour they can beat Spain in the last half hour or extra time. |
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Yes the players are getting older but I have yet to see any evidence that Spain are on the decline. Their style of play suits the conditions. The hotter and more humid it is, the more extreme it is, the better for Spain. The Confederations Cup doesn't mean much imo.
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My point was that possession style of play or not Spain wilted against Uruguay. The other thing that counts against them is that the flip side of their possession game was always their astonishing workrate and their ability to close down and harry the opposition in numbers and win the ball back quickly. Xavi and Iniesta are not able to do that anymore, as Barcelona have shown this season.
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There are several competitions within each World Cup, and this one is no different. Group winners. qualifiers, etc; etc;
In the conditions - which we can only guess at whatever info. we have gleaned - there are possibilities of at least one non-pedigree side progressing, notably Ghana, and maybe Uruguay continuing their World Cup renaissance. I expect some immensely tedious and boring matches as coaches more and more play so as not to get beat and not to induce unwanted pressure in the first two games. If any European sides are to impress then only the very best have a chance, which means Spain, Germany and Holland - the others have absolutely no chance. Ghana and Uruguay are my two to do well and are very good bets to qualify. Thereafter the draw will determine their future prospects. Great presentation marychain1 - many thanks. |
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marychain you're reading far too much into an unimportant friendly tournament - the world cup will be very different
spai |
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spain don't care much about friendlies. everyone beats spain in friendlies...
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fair enough, you are entitled to your opinion but they don't interest me.
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Anyone else agree that the Dutch squad looks the worst in living memory.
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Strootman is a massive loss. Given the way Greece rolled over Romania in their play off match, their impressive qualifying form doesn't look quite so impressive. RVP Sneijder De Jong and VDV all look on the slide. Strootman was their one star player who looked on the up.
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I do agree though. The assumption (I think) is that the Dutch have a wealth of talented players. Then you look at their squad and realise that actually, this year, they don't.
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Absolutley superb MC congrats
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metaphor -the confed cup is always something that you should take into consideration..certain teams really struggled with the conditions
this is massive to me.... |
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World Cup Outright Bets
Those who have read my group analyses may already have an idea on who I see as likely winners, but here’s my look at the favourites. I can see why some people don’t rate Brazil - they don’t seem to have the stars of recent years, and some of their key players haven’t had the best of seasons. There have also been loads of rumours of the lack of support for this tournament, and bad organisation. I’ve heard talk about the pressure of being at home as well. But the way I look at it is this – the Confederations Cup gave us a big clue of how this tournament will go. The Brazil squad with its lack of stars is perfect to get the job done, and in Big Phil Scolari they have the perfect manager. Loads of Brazil’s players leave their club form far behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I look at Brazil’s team and I like every part of it, where other teams seem to have weakness in some positions. Moreover, like the London Olympics, once this tournament gets going the public will get on board, big time! The atmosphere for the Confederations Cup final against Spain was astonishing, it lifted the Brazil team and they will get that and more match after match in this World Cup. Anyone that beats Brazil will have to do it in Brazil’s back yard, and I don’t know who is capable of that. They have a really friendly group, and if they don’t win it comfortably it will be a big shock. They will probably play Holland or Chile in the second round, which isn’t ideal, but I’d expect them to beat either. A quarter final against the Group C winners (Columbia?) or Group D runners up (Italy? England?) awaits, but that will in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and would be a tough ask for a European side. By the semi-finals they will be on a roll and this tournament will be buidling to a crescendo. Semi-finals and final could be against anyone but it will presumably be the crème-de-la-crème. Home advantage will be a massive factor at this stage and all being well I’d expect to see Brazil a very short price. They are my idea of the winners and will be my main bet. Argentina have the best player in the world in my eyes in Messi, and have talent all over the pitch. I expect them to score a lot of goals but I think they are vulnerable against the very good sides. I backed them 4 years ago and was ultra-confident after the group stages that they would get the job done but they got turned over by a supremely professional German team and all the talent in the world is nothing if you can’t find a team and formation that suits. The suspicion has to remain that Argentina will not be as secure defensively as other top sides. A Brazil v Argentina final would be an amazing spectacle and while that could happen I think the semis might be where Argentina’s tournament ends. Germany and Spain probably represent the best European sides on paper. Spain have a fairly tough group featuring Holland and Chile but I would expect them to get through it. This group have been on the go a long time though, and I expect Spain to suffer defeat before the semi finals. Their midfield has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the world for years but Xavi and Iniesta are no spring chickens and possible knockout games in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and Salvador may prove their undoing. Germany are rightly perceived as real challengers, they have a great combination of World Cup pedigree and a top side. They do have a tough group in terms of quality of opposition, the miles they have to travel and the conditions they’ll play in. If they get through the group they’ll be very dangerous but at the price I’m happy to oppose them. I’m not sure that Gomez or Hofland will score them enough goals for them to threaten the best sides in this tournament. Belgium are next favourites, and when you look at their team and draw they could go a long way. At 20/1 they’re short enough now though, but well done to those who got on at fancy prices. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay will all have their fans due to it being a home continent WC. Chile are without Arturo Vidal though, which tempers my enthusiasm for them. Also, Chile and Colombia do not really get to play European sides in the most hot and humid venues so you wonder how much of an advantage a home continent WC really is. Add in Colombia missing Falcao and I’m not sure they really represent a betting proposition as the big prices have all gone. Uruguay are a different case though in my eyes. They don’t seem to have any major injury concerns, have been there and done that getting to the semi-finals last time. They have genuine class in Suarez and Cavani and face Italy in Natal which could be to their advantage. Spain in the quarter finals would be the biggest potential blot on the landscape but they represent a big danger to all. The other sides I am interested in backing are France and Portugal. I think both these teams have the potential to go a long way in this tournament. France have strength throughout the team, a decent-looking group and have no issues with playing in difficult conditions. Portugal have a cracking looking side, and if Ronaldo fires can go a long way. They have a tough group but I think they can win it and have a very successful tournament. They may have an advantage over other sides from being in a Portugese-speaking country, and I want them on board. The issue for me with these two sides is that if they both win (or come second in) their groups they are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals. Because of this I have decided to just go with Portugal and leave France (reluctantly) unbacked. Bets To win 2014 World Cup Brazil 3/1 General Those who know me will know I rarely back favourites for anything, preferring to look for something at a bigger price. But I am convinced that Brazil have the strongest all round team, even though they don’t necessarily have the best players in each position. I have had my biggest bet on Brazil at 3/1, although I have held some back as I do anticipate offers once the season ends. I will be hoping that some firms go 4/1 or bigger and I will be looking to take advantage of this. Uruguay 28/1 Coral Of all the bigger priced South American sides Uruguay are the ones who have fewest questions to answer. The have unquestionable ability, track record, winning mentality and if they get through the group, which I think they will, they will be a tough ask for anyone. Spain in the quarters is a potential blot on the landscape, but I think they can overcome that hurdle and go a long way. Portugal 33/1 General Not a one-man team by any means but Portugal have Ronaldo and he is capable of beating any opposition by himself. That shouldn’t be necessary, as Portugal have an excellent side and playing this tournament in a Portugese speaking country may make this feel a bit like a home world cup for them. To make the quarter finals Japan 6/1 General Ghana 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook With a (1,2 ¼) book in a 32 team tournament there is little point in backing outsiders each way. If you do fancy a couple of long shots to progress further than their odds would suggest, most books are pricing up the “to make the quarters” markets. The two I am going to back in this are Japan and Ghana. They are priced up at 6/1 and 10/1 respectively. Japan have the easier group on paper, and if everything goes to form they would likely be underdogs in their second round games but they only need to win one knockout match for these bets to land. Top Goalscorer and Player of the Tournament David Luiz 66/1 POT Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer I’m not a big one for this sort of bets. I’ll never forget having an each way double on Baros 50/1 and the Czech Republic 18/1 as top scorer/winners in Euro 2000 and being sicker than the Czechs when Greece scored with the last kick of the game in the semi-final. It’s just a small each way bet on the top goalscorer market for me. Honda will play and take free kicks. He has a decent record for Japan and is a very nice price. In the POT market I’ve gone for a defender. Not normally a good idea and Luiz’s reputation isn’t great in Britain but the Portugese, Brazilians and Spanish love him. He’s going to be a starter for the home side and favourites and he’s extremely noticeable. I can’t get the image of Luiz lifting the trophy out of my head and I had to back him at the price. |
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Total list of my bets
Brazil to win World Cup 3/1 General (keeping an eye for offers in run-up) Uruguay to win World Cup 28/1 Coral (Refund as free bet if Brazil/Argentina win WC) Portugal to win World Cup 33/1 General Japan to make QF 6/1 General Ghana to make QF 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook David Luiz 66/1 POT Betfair Sportsbook Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer Paddy Power -------------------- Cameroon to qualify from Group A 5/1 Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1 Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10 Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4 Uruguay to win group D 15/8 Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1 No bet from Group E Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1 Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less Lay Germany to qualify from Group G at 1.18 Ghana to qualify from Group G 3/1 Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8 |
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Great write up mary.
One extra dimension I think you may have over-looked from a conditions PoV is the kick off times; 13:00 (local) kick off times will be very hot, and these will again not be favoured by the Europeans imo. There are 6 games in the group stages which combine both the difficult humidity AND the early kick off times. These may be of interest for an anti-European play and/or Under backers: Mexico v Cameroon Germany v Portugal Italy v Costa Rica Italy v Uruguay Bosnia v Iran USA v Germany There are a further 7 which have an early kick off time but at a venue considered 'Normal' for European teams: Colombia v Greece Belgium v Algeria Argentina v Iran South Korea v Algeria Australia v Spain Holland v Chile Costa Rica v England |
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Thanks Ted, on that basis Italy look a good lay v Uruguay.
Also a definate unders back. |
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Absolutely cracking point that Ted, and you're right, it's something I hadn't considered at all
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Luiz is 100/1 for "Golden Ball" with skybet. Its the same thing is it not?
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1) Player of the tournament is a FIFA award for the tournament's best player
2) Golden Ball is the official Golden Ball competition which is scored goals, then I think assists as a tiebreak and then even more complicated rules to separate further. 3) Top goalscorer is generally just goals but dead heat for a draw. Make sure you know which one you're betting on. It's unlikely David Luiz will score more than a couple so I wouldn't back him in 2) or 3) |
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Hang on, misread that. Golden Ball....
Golden Ball and Player of the Tournament are synonymous. Sorry thought you put Golden Boot. This is getting confusing. |
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It is quite late so i'll let you off
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The top goalscorer and Golden boot winner are slightly different.
Top scorer market dead heat rules apply. Golden boot award, first who scored most goals, if dead heat,finalised by most assists. Hope this clears the water. |
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Fantastic write up mary. Always enjoy reading your posts and am happy to read you are on board with a few of my selections. My bets so far:
Brazil to win Neymar Golden Boot Uruguay to win Portugal to win Group G Suarez Golden Boot |
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dont waste your time on suarez - everything is known about him , at international level now he will be marked way tighter than ever before...no chance here zero chance....
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all these bets i got through an indy - i give him big volumeand he gives me soccer oddschecker numbers...if i put em in they would be gone on bookmakers sites..no kidding here.
so pay attention to this stuff and bet it , i dont give this stuff out too often .... all bets are found under team specials on oddschecker...these are sort of stuff where you can hurt the books ..great value here 1. austraila under group points 1.5 1/2 2. england over group points 4.5 9/10 3. algeria over group points 1.5 8/11 4. algeria over group goals 1.5 8/15 5. costa rica over group points 0.5 8/11 6 . costa rica over goals 1.5 17/20 7. italy under group points 5.5 21/20 8 .italy under group goals 5.5 5/6 i made italy and algeria bets stronger than rest. i also bet at huge numbers bosnia and the swiss each way like 8 months ago , these numbers have come well in now if you want to bet on the exchange on the outright - i will advise to wait as closer to the event the big boys will come out to play and plenty of teams will be pushed out to something then...at moment no value really outrights - so wait..also tradtional bookmakers will have all sorts of specials also |
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I couldn't agree more. The while Premiership knew about Suarez at the start of the season and it didn't help much did it?
Can't understand the reasoning at all. Great players will always find a way to be effective. |
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knowing about suarez doesn't mean you can stop suarez
uruguay are an excellent side with many dangerous players - suarez will get many opportunities to score |
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i'm very impressed with your in depth analysis marychain. i might not always agree with your conclusions but your analysis is always interesting to read.
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marychain, i see you referenced argentina's thrashing by germany last wc - i would take that result with a pinch of salt if i were you. i don't know what went wrong in that game but argentina just did not turn up - i remember it well and they struggled to string more than two passes together. the form is very suspect. if i were you i would ignore it.
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