WillGreenwood

I was part of an England side that lost their opening Six Nations match in France in 1998 and it's a real test of a team to see if they can bounce back. Fortunately, we managed it with a big win over Wales at Twickenham but as a player you feel desperate after losing your opener.

That's the situation facing both Wales and Scotland when they meet at Murrayfield on Saturday. The away side are in serious trouble and, if they lose - which Betfair punters expect them to - my wooden spoon bet on Italy will be in jeopardy. I have to say, odds of 5.5 on the Welsh finishing bottom of the pile are quite appealing.

Scotland scored three tries in Paris and many people believe they are a strong side. But if the French had been more clinical with their final pass, they could have won by 50 points. I would have predicted a home win in this match by seven to nine points but we could see a fair few tries at Murrayfield and, if you fancy backing a points extravaganza, you could bet on Scotland to win by over 12.5 points at 3.15. That would be a ballsy move, and the Scots will be buoyed by their performance in Cardiff last year, but I don't think they'll trounce the Welsh so I'm going to back Scotland with a handicap of 2.5 points at 1.81.

I'm currently turning out for a veterans team and even our coach would have pulled off Gordon D'Arcy on Saturday. The Ireland centre had a shocker in Rome but, with Declan Kidney's squad decimated by injuries, he should get a chance to redeem himself in what will be cracking game against France.

This is the first Six Nations match to be played at the new Aviva Stadium in Dublin and I expect the home side to rise to the occasion. It's important to remember that Leinster have already beaten Clermont there this season and I'd be taking that as the form line for this match rather than recent internationals.

At times France were ridiculously good against Scotland but Ireland were holding something back against Italy and 2.62 is a great price for a home win.


Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble:
Back England -22.5 points @ 2.04
Back Scotland -2.5 @ 1.81
Back Ireland @ 2.62

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I lived in Italy for six years as a kid when my old man was playing for Rugby Roma and based on that I could have qualified to play for the Azzurri. I still have a lot of affection for the country and I often dreaded playing against them at Twickenham. Had Clive Woodward left me out for those games, I would not have been disappointed.

I remember nearly losing to Italy in a World Cup qualifier in 1998 but in Six Nations matches I did not enjoy beating them by a big score. Running in multiple tries, we were like a schoolyard bully or a cat toying with a mouse.

Italy are tough, technically strong and the way for England to beat them on Saturday is to have three backs looking for space with three more being confrontational and getting in their opponents' faces. Italy often freeze at Twickenham and hopefully that will be the case this time. Now that I've retired, I'm a lot happier for England to beat them emphatically.

I always enjoyed away matches in Rome. My dad made great friends during his playing days there and they would all be at the Stadio Flaminio when I was playing for England. I'd see them after the match and they'd be pinching my face in that fond way that Italian men do, saying, "Little Willie! Little Willie!" I was about 34-years-old at the time so it was a bit embarrassing. Lovely people though.

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As the opening Six Nations match in a World Cup year and with the history between the two nations, Wales v England on Friday night is going to be immense. It's the greatest game in the greatest stadium and I wish I could pull my boots on and have one last crack at the Welsh.

England are deserved [1.66[ favourites to get off to a winning start but it won't be easy. They're a better side than Wales on paper but the atmosphere in Cardiff is unbelievable, the Millenium is a beautiful stadium and it will be buzzing at kick-off. This match will be less about individual performances, more about team mettle, standing up in the Dragon's cauldron and coming away with no regrets.

Warren Gatland's attempts to wind up Dylan Hartley were brilliant. Martin Johnson has responded, ex-players like Jeremy Guscott and Jonathan Davies have got involved and all these niggles add to the occasion. Getting stuck in before a match as big as this one is just what you want to see.

There are plenty of battles to relish all over the pitch but the bottom line is that each player must out do his opposite number. Mike Tindall and Shontayne Hape's clash with James Hook - if he plays there - and Jamie Roberts in the centre is key, while two of the nicest guys in the world, Toby Flood and Stephen Jones, can't be nice on Friday night. The contest up front is intriguing too; England must go after the Welsh scrum as they have a clear advantage, but the home side will aim to dominate in the line-out.

The Welsh fans will sing for the whole eighty minutes and their players will get a massive lift from the partisan atmosphere. England scrum-half Ben Youngs can silence the home support by scoring a try and I hope he celebrates as he did when he went over for Leicester against the Scarlets a few weeks ago. Youngs has the arrogance about him that England players need in order to succeed in Cardiff. People think arrogance is a bad thing but in rugby it can be an asset.

I'm encouraged by the progress England have made in the last few months. They will have learned from their autumn defeat to South Africa and been buoyed by the victory over Australia. They have come together and there is great spirit in the camp.

I expect England to win this one and go into their three home games with momentum. I scored the winning try when the Red Rose last triumphed in Cardiff, in 2003, the score that day was 25-9 but I expect the home side to get a few more points on the board on Friday. I don't expect England to cover the 12.5 points in the winning margin market but they can win by around 25-17, which would cover the 2.5 handicap. I'm backing England -2.5 at 1.9 and I can't wait. Truly, it's going to be immense.

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Ireland have a lot of injuries to contend with so they certainly won't take their trip to Rome lightly. Italy don't stop tackling, that's what I love about them, but when a good side lifts the tempo they can't keep up. Nick Mallet's men will want to turn the match into an arm wrestle and keep things tight so the likes of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon Darcy need to open the game up.

The days of teams expecting to smash Italy are long gone, they're too well organised to go down by huge margins. I lived in Italy for six years so I'm chuffed to see them improving year on year. Ireland will have too much but they'll have to fight for their victory. Back them to win by Under 12.5 ponits at 2.22.

As for Scotland I enjoyed being coached by Andy Robinson and I like what he's done with the team. I loved their tenacious performance against South Africa in the autumn, they have a great back row and Alastair Kellock is looking good as captain at lock.

France will be apprehensive about this match and the Scots need to get into them in the first 20 minutes. From a betting perspective, I'm tempted to trade France in the first half and get back on them after the break. Following their awful performances in the autumn, and with the crowd getting on their backs if they don't start well, France will be too nervous to win big. Ultimately they will come through and I'm backing them to win by under 12.5 points at 2.4.

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Outright Winner
With three home games and a great team spirit developing under Martin Johnson, I'm backing England at 2.94 as worthy favourites in Betfair's Six Nations winner market. I expect them to win their first away match against Wales so if they emerge victorious from their three matches at Twickenham they should be home and dry and going to Dublin for a Grand Slam decider.

Grand Slam
This is an interesting one. Many people are saying that 2011 could see the closest Six Nations for years and that would suggest that Betfair punters are right to make No Winner 1.7 favourite in the Grand Slam market. In my mind though, I expect England to beat Wales and I'm backing them to win their home games, so that sets up an intriguing prospect: England could go to Dublin on March 19 one victory away from a clean sweep. By that logic, you would, by backing England to win the Grand Slam at 6.6, be backing them to beat Ireland. And 6.6 is pretty good odds when you look at it like that.

Wooden Spoon
Scotland can beat Wales at Murrayfield, they won against Ireland last season and can mix it up against Brian O'Driscoll and co. this year too. I'm pleased to see Italy improving but I'm afraid I can't look past the Azzurri for the wooden spoon at 1.4.

Top Try Scorer
England's Chris Ashton is the 6.4 favourite to get over the line more than any other player but I'm nervous about his chances. He's a quality player but he's been injured and he hasn't been quite the same since that knock on the head he received against South Africa. I actually fancy Ben Youngs to have a great tournament and will back him if he's added to the Betfair market.

Top Points Scorer
I'm firmly behind Toby Flood the market favourite at 3.0. He can score tries and kick goals, I see him getting a run in the England team and I expect England to do well so all the ingredients are there for Toby to notch up plenty of points. Remember, the leading points scorer in the Six Nations is frequently the fly-half from the team that ends up winning the tournament. I might add a saver on Ireland's Jonathan Sexton at 3.6. He's a try scorer who can feed off Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy and he's also a great kicker.

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