A disappointing day saturday, but still £112 in profit. I guess i still have a lot to learn about dutching and have some way to go to match zerohype's standard. Anyway ive decided to try a more mathematical approach on two races today.
2.30 Carlisle is a 9 runner claimer, now if all the horses in this race were of roughly the same ability (though obviously that is not the case) and i were to select what i believed to be the best three horses in the race, i would have roughly a 33% chance of having the winner. So what im looking for is a profit of 33% or higher for my investment. The three that i believe to be the best here are;
The Osteopath 3
Fremen 3.1
Moheeb 10.5
At the odds shown this would give almost exactly a 33% return which is just enough to make it playable, however it is early and i may be able to better this later.
3.15 Leicester a 9 runner seller where i think the three to be on are Kingswinford 2.8
Mark Anthony 4.2
Rainy Night 12
Again being nine runners i would be looking for a return of 33% or higher although at current odds this would return a 47% profit and therefore i reckon i am getting good value here, though again it is early and i may be able to get better yet.
27 May 11
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23 May 11
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Jonnyebeneezers Dutch
Comments: 6
An excellent start to the day with Fremen winning at 7/2 beating The Osteopath. Must admit that personally i had to move in again when the roi hit 72%. This was probably due to the support for Moody Tunes who could only manage 3rd.
For 72% the odds were as follows:
The Osteopath 3.2
Fremen 5
Moheeb 15
For 72% the odds were as follows:
The Osteopath 3.2
Fremen 5
Moheeb 15
slightly disappointing with the second race with kingswinford 2nd and rainy night 3rd. The winner i think benefitted from racing against the rail. Anyway still slightly ahead on the day and now going for a 3rd race.
The 5.00 Carlisle has seen a non runner which now gives some value to the following selections
Electioneer 3.1
Pelmanism 3.9
Hansomis 22
i think the winner will come from these three and the roi is at 60% for roughly a 27% chance
The 5.00 Carlisle has seen a non runner which now gives some value to the following selections
Electioneer 3.1
Pelmanism 3.9
Hansomis 22
i think the winner will come from these three and the roi is at 60% for roughly a 27% chance
An excellent result there with Pelmanism winning at 15/8 and Hansomis finishing 2nd at 16/1
The 5.15 at leicester would have been interesting but there is absolutely no value for me. The best three on form here are No Heretic, Starlight Walk and Echoes Of Motivator but at odds of 1.39, 7.2 and 15 the return is only around 8% where i would be looking to beat 37.5% as that is the chance i would have of winning.
One final race for me today, the last at Sligo which is a nh flat race. I think the three to concentrate on here are as follows.
Canadian Diamond 3.8
Miss Nomer 3.9
Rematch 6
with 10 runners i would be looking to make at least a 33% roi and at current odds it returns around 45%
Canadian Diamond 3.8
Miss Nomer 3.9
Rematch 6
with 10 runners i would be looking to make at least a 33% roi and at current odds it returns around 45%
The Osteopath 2.82
Fremen 3.7
Moheeb 15