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Phill
18 Apr 11 20:19 Joined: 27 Oct 02 | Topic/replies: 50 | Blogger: Phill's blog sold my holding today at 51p, think there might be a fall before the drilling update Not a bad call, Phill. |
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yeah good call selling at 51p but CAD are so undervalued with the giant ENI aboard. The market is awful so there's no rush to buy (anything) yet though who knows if we've hit the bottom? The CAD directors have paid much much more for their stake recently - just shows how far we've dropped.
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I bought a few more at 34p so I've dragged my average from 39p down to 38p (wow). I'm still down but not even considering selling at a loss. ENI knew what was planned regarding nuclear power in Italy and the Ukraine is very important to them. I have reduced my exit amount though.
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38p now . Looks a bargain with newsflow to come.
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interesting action in the auction tonight with a buyer looking for close to 400,000 shares. A very strong rumour of a shale gas deal any day. Boom Boom time ;-/
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FAO: joeydeacon-Are you marcus brent or bobby j on the other ones?
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I presume you mean on other forums?
No I'm connected to a well known small cap brokerage which I'm unwilling to divulge. I do a lot of work on the presentation side to funds such as J.O.T and European junior oils. |
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jd thanks for the advice i hold 2 lots of shares cad/caza
both just over 22p (missed xel no cash)looking forward to next advice(need deposit for house). peppies. |
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joey, RBS worth a punt?
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I wouldn't buy a bank with my worst enemies cash ;-)
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30.5p
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25p
The cash in bank is worth 30 odd pence. |
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can't even log into my hl account, it just freezes. Things will get better
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its most probably stop losses people had on their accounts forcing the price down
fortunes to be made for the brave here |
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I managed to get on today at 27p, and at 30p. Was trying to fill my boots at 27p but td sh1terhouse broke down upon heavy volume at the crucial time.
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Most of the trading sites crashed at some point it was impossible to get any quotes at one stage. Next week will be better I think (or hope)
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There's речовина* afoot.
(*stuff) |
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banana, got any views on chariot oil? reckon it could be massive. wouldn't have thought bp and petrobras would be wasting their time with them if they didnt see potential. they are targetting 8.9 billion barrels (chariot's share), total 17 billion or something). assuming they only found 3 billion or so, including whats recoverable, plus further farmouts which are probably likely, would have thought could end up with a market cap similar to tullow oil (who have 2.9 billion barrels). Tullow were worth 15 billion not long ago. Chariot are worth approx 250 mill. So you are talking a potential 40-60 bagger upon first production of 3 billion barrels.
Think you are looking at a 3-5 year investment on it. I know tullow took 27 months from first drill to production of their ghana field, which was a record I think. Hence a 3-5 year investment imo. Could pay handsomely. The bonus is that they are grossly undervalued at present as well. Should be nearer £4 a share. So £1.30 is a bargain price. I am accumulating these as we speak. Going to try and pick up a 5 figure number of shares while still at this price. |
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Yeah I had a good look at it especially after the deal with BP. Putting a lot of trust in an African Government, even a stable(ish) one, is a proper punt and is one of the reasons I have left RMP alone too. You are right that it does have huge potential. Did I read that Citigroup sold their entire stock? If thats true that would worry me.
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It's not citigroup themselves selling. It is one of their big clients in a nominee account. But that person is likely to have been on board since the 20p stage and is just reducing exposure. Who knows the reason. Completely different kettle of fish to RMP; I agree that one is very risky, plus if puntland/georgia don't come off it will be worthless. Char seems a different kettle of fish, and imo if BP wants to get involved (who are notoriously picky about who they invest in) then that seems a green light to me. BP also have the best success out of any major in exploration prospects.
Think the only other company that offers this much potential oil is GKP, and that one is infinitely more riskier. |
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Ta, not even sure where/when I (half)picked that up. I'll have a look at it and ask about.
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What about Global Petroleum too? Its another ISA punt. Chariot could find them in the same position as Cadogan with a take over before it reaches even half its broker target price, although still a profit the timeline is a bit too long for me. I had an email this morning from a friend who believes Chariot is a lot less risky than what is currently being said. He must have quite a few.
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I'll check out global. I think chariot is a different kettle of fish to cadogan. If it does get taken over then it will be just before production starts, once they have proved up stuff. At that stage the broker targets of ~£4 will be a distant memory. I also think chariot is a lot less risky than most other oilers. I don't see namibia as a problem in the slightest. It has a good mining industry, and lets face it, BP and petrobras wouldn't have farmed in if they thought it was a risky area. imo you will have a ton of majors scrambling over themselves to get into the west coat of africa pretty soon. Imo once the drill bit gets turning this won't take that long to hit £10. The massive gains are over 3-5 year time period but I'm prepared to wait. Btw the news is that the overhang has nearly clearly, so with that gone should start to see this rise.
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I appreciate I am just spouting off about random companies now...do you have any opinions on Victoria oil and gas? Their cameroon (looks like I'm obsessed with Africa
) project seems like a nice little earner, first gas sales end of this year. They have plenty of it left to explore, so should increase reserves further. Plus the beauty of it is that they have just acquired 95% of the project after one of the partners couldn't stump up their costs. The only issue perhaps is they may need to raise another £10 mil to develop it now, a possible dilution? They also have this other potentially massive project in russia, but that is a long way off. I'm targetting 12p+ short to medium term. |
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I'll know who they are but the last time I read about them was in March Whippet. I'll do a bit of reading this weekend. The delay of QE3, which is purely political, is starting to worry me. My plan has always been to buy and dump (into what who knows?) some point next year after a few weeks/months of QE3 but I wonder if thats going to happen now. Maybe its time for the very bitter pill now rather than delaying. Suppose its better invested in shares rather than holding currency. Plus I might go on Charlie Sheen style bender, fed up with the pointlessness of it all
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I have a theory that you should still be able to make money in these type of shares even if the wider economy/market doesn't do to well. What I am thinking is that the element of risk has been poorly priced into all of these AIM shares at the moment. That is the prices of most of them are really low at the moment because people think they are risky, and there is minimal value factored into prices based on the potential of the company (as it was during June 10 to April 11, or before 07). This is a problem if you are trying to make a quick buck, because it simply isn't going to happen, but if you are prepared to hold for 3-5 years you should be ok imo. When eventually the company you are invested in starts to get some proper cash flow, or has a major discovery booked, then you should see a rerating accordingly. Until then all the good noises coming out of the company will go unnoticed. Of course you also need to make sure you invest in things that are already well funded, as it could get quite tough to raise cash in the future if things go belly up (although the fact that barclays lent HP $8 billion the other day for the autonomy purchase might suggest things aren't that bad).
Of course if oil prices crash then most of these discoveries will probably get left in the ground until it recovers. What are your thoughts on gold miners banwana? Surely it is about time they exploded to the upside? I have noticed the gold bugs index is close to breaking out, I know people in US/Canada watch this a lot, could be a great time to buy miners? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^HUI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^hui;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined any thoughts on good small/medium cap gold or silver miners? |
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I believe that also, however my plan was always to try and make a buck by buying minor oilers and miners with big potential, hope to ride their discoveries/take overs, enjoy the madness of QE3 which I had hoped would be even bigger than QE2 and then pick the right time to get out. I am a gambler and will need a huge slice of luck but then I wouldn't be on this website if I didn't have that type of head. I think you know my thoughts on ORE as I do on yours with OTC.
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bubbling up nicely now.
There are announcements about gas contracts tomorrow, and cadogan could well be involved in partnership with eni. There are also suggestions that some russian companies are interested in buying cadogan. http://www.epochtimes.com.ua/ru/ukraine/economics/rossiyskie-investory-skupayut-aktsii-ukrainskikh-neftegazovykh-kompaniy-99213.html |
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i have a chunk in this
I did the research on my portfolio this week (mainly small caps) and despite a sea of red, I am comfortable with the companies I hold. In fact I cannot believe some of the share prices so I have topped up many of my investments. This is pure sentiment driven atm and share prices are looking very attractive for those with balls. A great example is the disparity between gold and gold miners. |
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Could be an excellent Monday for ORE holders even at 1p. As for CAD, I can't see this going over much more than £1 unfortunately. The board is being Italianized!
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A great deal of whispers around the place of a bid coming. The bulletin boards are awash all of a sudden with this talk but most importantly the talk is at work. ENI most certainly but how much? They are installing their own men and the last piece is the impending installment of a new chairman. Cards on the table and I am saying 125p though we could easily be chased up by a rival possibly Shell/Chevron. I am adding here all the time now.
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Don't think SPQR are going to want to sell out on the cheap are they? This works in our favour, unless you believe they are a shill for ENI somehow. The directors all have financial interest here so again will not want to sell out on the cheap. If a bid comes I believe it will be for at least 125p (especially as cad's own broker is stating that price) but I'm hopeful this will remain an ongoing concern for a while yet.
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watch for a volume spike this week mr whippet ;-)
Game on at CAD now and yes "a shill for ENI"! SPOT ON :-) |
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at least my main buy is boldly weathering the storm......i'll probably now regret saying that sometime soon
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^that's what I was thinking.
![]() The thing is we would probably be 60p+ by now if the market wasn't so bad, so we are probably still out of pocket in the grand scheme of things, but at least we aren't losing money. ![]() |
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looks like something is happening today.
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555 mmboe is the upside here. huge, huge value at a mkt cap of £110m with £45m in cash and with revenue increasing to £20m this year.
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50.5p - 51.0p
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Ouch. I'm not looking at the price until tomorrow.
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Doh! i've had some more in my sipp, sold something i'd made 10% on and bought these again at 37p GLA
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