CADOGAN PETROLEUM - CAD - Joey's next big tip 37.5p at present but worth around 140-160p imo

i'm onboard CAD bought yesterday for £0.5275 and plonked them in an isa.
Also had a tickle of ORE & HER (orogen gold & herencia)

missed the move in CAD but on board with EnCore Oil(EO.) @ 110p---lots of rumours of imminent t/over---good press y/day

Good news from CAD today RE the farm out with ENI. Good to see a management that knows what it's doing. Nice to see another company values some of our resources as highly as we do. There was a slight bit of negative news RE the payment owing from GPS as well. On the bright side, we still own the legal rights to those plants until the payment is made in full. Not really sure why the price dropped based on this news, but shouldn't really matter either way if you are holding long term as should be well over £1 in the medium term.

Certainly sounds like more positive than negative with the two news releases. Mid June could be crunch time? Is that when the shares could take off?

There will be other news at the end of this month - End year results and a drilling update. Should see a steady rise from now on. Might possibly get a better entry price than current, but could just as easily kick on from here, so for the sake of a few p, makes sense to get on board or add to your position, and keep them safe until its somewhere in the £1+ range

Still holding CAD. Just wondering if any of you had any views of Gulf Keystone (GKP). Very positive reserves story but various political/legal complications holding the price back.

nice.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11417805/Cadogan_Petroleum_18April2011.pdf

sold my holding today at 51p, think there might be a fall before the drilling update

What to make of today's news?

No dividend (expected?), plus the other news item.

Anyone digested the accounts from this am?

Double dutch to me. Seems like they are in a much stronger position than last year so why the fall in share price again?

doesn't really say anything that wasn't already known lol. Back in profit now which is a good thing. I don't think there will be a huge amount of movement until the eni deal is finalised in june. I guess there has been a bit of a drop as people think they can move their money to whatever the latest hot stock is and then get back in here in a couple of months. I'm just taking this as an opportunity to add to my position.

think 60p will be the tops for this one, will get out there.

And what are you basing that on exactly?

I can't imagine for a second you have actually done any sort of calculation.

There are various conservative broker estimates of 115p floating around, so if you know something they don't, please enlighten us.

I have done many calculations upon my purchase price, thats all hat I need to base my opinions on, what I meanyt is that as the 50p has held I feel onceit hits 60p it will stay there for a while so that is my exit point.

Any reason why CAD is falling through the floor?

Insiders knowing the results of drilling tests?

look at the AIM market generally--nearly all oil & gas shares well down,thanks to Mr Osbournes NSO Tax & some over expectancy drilling reports(or lack of)--im a holder of xcite,encore & sound oil--hasnt been a good week tbh,although there was a small amount of short covering which helped today......

Would think drop in oil prices has a lot to do with the recent fall.

There aren't any impending drilling results as far as I can tell. The Pokrovska 1 drill (which was stopped due to bad weather) is now part of the ENI deal, so I assume they will be the ones completing that. As that deal hasn't been signed off yet, I'm not sure what work if any will have been started on it.

Phil posted above about bailing before the drilling update, never checked any reports to see what was due.

Get driving your cars chaps, even for short trips, every little helps :)

Time to get stuck in again, one of the directors bought another 40k worth follow his spending spree a couple of weeks back. Wouldn't be doing this if he thought they were going to bomb any further....

43p ouch.

oil shares been hammered time to start buying more again i suspect. Have an absolute corker for a 10 day trade very shortly (oil sector).

good to see you joey !!

cheers for the cad profits.

Big day today!

35.5p

33.5p

[i]Global Process System Inc ("GPS") Settlement

Further to the announcement made on 16 June 2011 at the Annual General Meeting concerning the GPS Settlement , information received subsequently  (16 June 2011) from GPS has indicated that a payment will not now be voluntarily made by them prior to the sale of the gas plants.  Cadogan continues to retain legal title to the gas plants during the sale process and will obtain a further valuation shortly, so that the Board can accurately assess whether any impairment to their value is necessary in the Half Yearly Report.

Although Cadogan may  continue to allow GPS to market the plants as per the settlement agreement, the Company will also commence efforts to market the plants directly to end users and will enforce its rights under the agreement for any shortfall, against the $30 million currently outstanding under the settlement agreement.   

GPS are currently following up several opportunities for near term requirements for gas processing facilities with similar specifications to Cadogan's gas plants. The Board remains optimistic that payment in respect of its rights against GPS will be received in 2011.[/i]

Phill
18 Apr 11 20:19 Joined: 27 Oct 02 | Topic/replies: 50 | Blogger: Phill's blog
sold my holding today at 51p, think there might be a fall before the drilling update

Not a bad call, Phill.

yeah good call selling at 51p but CAD are so undervalued with the giant ENI aboard. The market is awful so there's no rush to buy (anything) yet though who knows if we've hit the bottom? The CAD directors have paid much much more for their stake recently - just shows how far we've dropped.

I bought a few more at 34p so I've dragged my average from 39p down to 38p (wow). I'm still down but not even considering selling at a loss. ENI knew what was planned regarding nuclear power in Italy and the Ukraine is very important to them. I have reduced my exit amount though.

38p now . Looks a bargain with newsflow to come.

interesting action in the auction tonight with a buyer looking for close to 400,000 shares. A very strong rumour of a shale gas deal any day. Boom Boom time ;-/

FAO: joeydeacon-Are you marcus brent or bobby j on the other ones?

I presume you mean on other forums?

No I'm connected to a well known small cap brokerage which I'm unwilling to divulge. I do a lot of work on the presentation side to funds such as J.O.T and European junior oils.

jd thanks for the advice i hold 2 lots of shares cad/caza
both just over 22p (missed xel no cash)looking forward to
next advice(need deposit for house).
                                 peppies.

joey, RBS worth a punt?

I wouldn't buy a bank with my worst enemies cash ;-)

30.5p

25p

The cash in bank is worth 30 odd pence.

can't even log into my hl account, it just freezes. Things will get better

its most probably stop losses people had on their accounts forcing the price down

fortunes to be made for the brave here

I managed to get on today at 27p, and at 30p. Was trying to fill my boots at 27p but td sh1terhouse broke down upon heavy volume at the crucial time.

Most of the trading sites crashed at some point it was impossible to get any quotes at one stage. Next week will be better I think (or hope)

There's речовина* afoot.
(*stuff)

banana, got any views on chariot oil? reckon it could be massive. wouldn't have thought bp and petrobras would be wasting their time with them if they didnt see potential. they are targetting 8.9 billion barrels (chariot's share), total 17 billion or something). assuming they only found 3 billion or so, including whats recoverable, plus further farmouts which are probably likely, would have thought could end up with a market cap similar to tullow oil (who have 2.9 billion barrels). Tullow were worth 15 billion not long ago. Chariot are worth approx 250 mill. So you are talking a potential 40-60 bagger upon first production of 3 billion barrels.

Think you are looking at a 3-5 year investment on it. I know tullow took 27 months from first drill to production of their ghana field, which was a record I think. Hence a 3-5 year investment imo. Could pay handsomely.

The bonus is that they are grossly undervalued at present as well. Should be nearer £4 a share. So £1.30 is a bargain price. I am accumulating these as we speak. Going to try and pick up a 5 figure number of shares while still at this price.

Yeah I had a good look at it especially after the deal with BP. Putting a lot of trust in an African Government, even a stable(ish) one, is a proper punt and is one of the reasons I have left RMP alone too. You are right that it does have huge potential. Did I read that Citigroup sold their entire stock? If thats true that would worry me.

It's not citigroup themselves selling. It is one of their big clients in a nominee account. But that person is likely to have been on board since the 20p stage and is just reducing exposure. Who knows the reason. Completely different kettle of fish to RMP; I agree that one is very risky, plus if puntland/georgia don't come off it will be worthless. Char seems a different kettle of fish, and imo if BP wants to get involved (who are notoriously picky about who they invest in) then that seems a green light to me. BP also have the best success out of any major in exploration prospects.

Think the only other company that offers this much potential oil is GKP, and that one is infinitely more riskier.

Ta, not even sure where/when I (half)picked that up. I'll have a look at it and ask about.

What about Global Petroleum too? Its another ISA punt. Chariot could find them in the same position as Cadogan with a take over before it reaches even half its broker target price, although still a profit the timeline is a bit too long for me. I had an email this morning from a friend who believes Chariot is a lot less risky than what is currently being said. He must have quite a few.

I'll check out global. I think chariot is a different kettle of fish to cadogan. If it does get taken over then it will be just before production starts, once they have proved up stuff. At that stage the broker targets of ~£4 will be a distant memory. I also think chariot is a lot less risky than most other oilers. I don't see namibia as a problem in the slightest. It has a good mining industry, and lets face it, BP and petrobras wouldn't have farmed in if they thought it was a risky area. imo you will have a ton of majors scrambling over themselves to get into the west coat of africa pretty soon. Imo once the drill bit gets turning this won't take that long to hit £10. The massive gains are over 3-5 year time period but I'm prepared to wait. Btw the news is that the overhang has nearly clearly, so with that gone should start to see this rise.

I appreciate I am just spouting off about random companies now...do you have any opinions on Victoria oil and gas? Their cameroon (looks like I'm obsessed with Africa ) project seems like a nice little earner, first gas sales end of this year. They have plenty of it left to explore, so should increase reserves further. Plus the beauty of it is that they have just acquired 95% of the project after one of the partners couldn't stump up their costs. The only issue perhaps is they may need to raise another £10 mil to develop it now, a possible dilution? They also have this other potentially massive project in russia, but that is a long way off. I'm targetting 12p+ short to medium term.

I'll know who they are but the last time I read about them was in March Whippet. I'll do a bit of reading this weekend. The delay of QE3, which is purely political, is starting to worry me. My plan has always been to buy and dump (into what who knows?) some point next year after a few weeks/months of QE3 but I wonder if thats going to happen now. Maybe its time for the very bitter pill now rather than delaying. Suppose its better invested in shares rather than holding currency. Plus I might go on Charlie Sheen style bender, fed up with the pointlessness of it all

I have a theory that you should still be able to make money in these type of shares even if the wider economy/market doesn't do to well. What I am thinking is that the element of risk has been poorly priced into all of these AIM shares at the moment. That is the prices of most of them are really low at the moment because people think they are risky, and there is minimal value factored into prices based on the potential of the company (as it was during June 10 to April 11, or before 07). This is a problem if you are trying to make a quick buck, because it simply isn't going to happen, but if you are prepared to hold for 3-5 years you should be ok imo. When eventually the company you are invested in starts to get some proper cash flow, or has a major discovery booked, then you should see a rerating accordingly. Until then all the good noises coming out of the company will go unnoticed. Of course you also need to make sure you invest in things that are already well funded, as it could get quite tough to raise cash in the future if things go belly up (although the fact that barclays lent HP $8 billion the other day for the autonomy purchase might suggest things aren't that bad).

Of course if oil prices crash then most of these discoveries will probably get left in the ground until it recovers.

What are your thoughts on gold miners banwana? Surely it is about time they exploded to the upside? I have noticed the gold bugs index is close to breaking out, I know people in US/Canada watch this a lot, could be a great time to buy miners? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^HUI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^hui;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

any thoughts on good small/medium cap gold or silver miners?

I believe that also, however my plan was always to try and make a buck by buying minor oilers and miners with big potential, hope to ride their discoveries/take overs, enjoy the madness of QE3 which I had hoped would be even bigger than QE2 and then pick the right time to get out. I am a gambler and will need a huge slice of luck but then I wouldn't be on this website if I didn't have that type of head. I think you know my thoughts on ORE as I do on yours with OTC.

bubbling up nicely now.

There are announcements about gas contracts tomorrow, and cadogan could well be involved in partnership with eni.

There are also suggestions that some russian companies are interested in buying cadogan.

http://www.epochtimes.com.ua/ru/ukraine/economics/rossiyskie-investory-skupa...

i have a chunk in this

I did the research on my portfolio this week (mainly small caps) and despite a sea of red, I am comfortable with the companies I hold.

In fact I cannot believe some of the share prices so I have topped up many of my investments.

This is pure sentiment driven atm and share prices are looking very attractive for those with balls.

A great example is the disparity between gold and gold miners.

Could be an excellent Monday for ORE holders even at 1p. As for CAD, I can't see this going over much more than £1 unfortunately. The board is being Italianized!

A great deal of whispers around the place of a bid coming. The bulletin boards are awash all of a sudden with this talk but most importantly the talk is at work. ENI most certainly but how much? They are installing their own men and the last piece is the impending installment of a new chairman. Cards on the table and I am saying 125p though we could easily be chased up by a rival possibly Shell/Chevron. I am adding here all the time now.

Don't think SPQR are going to want to sell out on the cheap are they? This works in our favour, unless you believe they are a shill for ENI somehow. The directors all have financial interest here so again will not want to sell out on the cheap. If a bid comes I believe it will be for at least 125p (especially as cad's own broker is stating that price) but I'm hopeful this will remain an ongoing concern for a while yet.

watch for a volume spike this week mr whippet ;-)
Game on at CAD now and yes "a shill for ENI"!
SPOT ON :-)

at least my main buy is boldly weathering the storm......i'll probably now regret saying that sometime soon

^that's what I was thinking.

The thing is we would probably be 60p+ by now if the market wasn't so bad, so we are probably still out of pocket in the grand scheme of things, but at least we aren't losing money.

looks like something is happening today.

555 mmboe is the upside here. huge, huge value at a mkt cap of £110m with £45m in cash and with revenue increasing to £20m this year.

50.5p - 51.0p

Ouch. I'm not looking at the price until tomorrow.

Doh! i've had some more in my sipp, sold something i'd made 10% on and bought these again at 37p GLA

These are the perils of investing small cap.

Cad is still a good long term play.

The market is crazy atm.

I have a big holding of a gold tiddler which is going to go big at some point.  Yesterday they announced a deal (farm in/JV) worth double their current market cap over the next 5 years and they have countless other projects in which the company own 100%.

the share price went up 10% on news and now is lower than the original price before the news now

Something seemed very, very fishy with that 40% drop earlier. The RNS looked like it was written by a 5 year old, and seemed to deliberately overplay the things that went wrong rather than the many successes.

Unfortunately many small investors will have got shafted this morning, either through stop losses being triggered or selling because the RNS was very confusing. There was definitely a big II mopping up all the shares into that drop, other small investors have attested that it was impossible to buy during that point. Someone has though, and they have made a killing.

To understand the RNS you need to realise the fact that they are drilling in two distinct zones, the Upper (up to 5000 metres) and Lower Visean (5000m and below).

The prospective reserves report for both the POK and ZAG licenses are for the UPPER zone only. These are 51.7mmboe and 90mmboe respectively. It was thought that the lower zones may contain more gas/oil on top of these figures, but this wasn't certain.

So the RNS today states that they found gas in the UPPER POK well. They haven't released flow rates yet but this looks positive. So that 51.7 mmboe figure above is well on track. The LOWER zone in the POK well contained water however. So it has been plugged. Maybe a tad disappointing, but it was a bit pie in the sky to expect gas/oil further down as well.

As for ZAG, the same thing happened. The lower zone is non productive. They are still testing the upper zone, but the fact that they are carrying out additional work to the well suggests there is gas there as well.

So overall a positive set of results, poorly worded.

I agree. I read the RNS and it didn't alarm me unduly (speaking as someone with 28 years experience in oil exploration). The fact that secondary targets below the main reservoir came in wet is par for the course. If they had found anything then it would have been a bonus. Luckily I dont have a huge holding in CAD, just some shares I bought for the long term, so I wasn't getting closed out or anything when the price went down. Similar thing happened with Exillon too a couple of weeks ago. Anything possible with GKP too.My best buy has been Coastal though.

actually I have just reread the RNS and looked at some of the company presentations, and it is even more interesting.

The well V24/25 is actually in the lower visean zone. They have found gas here. The well V26 which is lower down in the lower visean was water.

So they have found gas in the upper visean - a prospective 51mmboe.
They also found gas in the upper part of the lower visean at V24/25 - could be any amount.

It looks like a similar case at the ZAG well as well. Very interesting.

Could I ask as you are an expert in this - am I correct in assuming that the higher the porosity of the rock the more potential for gas/oil in there?

What is interesting is that the lower visean has a porosity of 12%, and the upper visean 10%. (there's also the tournasian lower down with 16% porosity which they may target with other drills). So would I be correct in assuming that the lower visean may have more gas per square metre of rock than the upper visean because it is more porous? If we have a prospective 51mmboe in the upper visean do you see the possibility for 60% of that amount again in the lower zone because it is more porous (albeit the zone isn't as large)

also regarding water, is it in anyway beneficial to have water sitting below your reservoir? (may help in recovery rates or getting the gas/oil out in some way?)

Yes the oil or gas in place is the product of the gross rock volume times the porosity times (1- Sw) where Sw is the fraction of the pore space which contains water. If you are above the free water level then there is still some water in the pores if the rock is water-wet.

porosity also is related to permeability, which is a measure of how easily the fluids can pass through the rock. If the porosity gets too low (typically below 5 -10%) the low permeability may make it hard to get the gas or oil out.

Having an aquifer under the hydrocarbons may help in that it provides a drive mechanism to keep up the reservoir pressure and help recovery. However if the water encroaches to the well perforations it may kill off the well's production since water weighs more than hc. Most fields in the N Sea have water injection through dedicated wells which increases the overall recovery factor.

Do you write as the alchemist whippet? Similar writing style.

anyone got any thoughts on the latest developments?

The latest RNS was a bit double dutch to me I am afraid....I only understand the technical stuff. If anyone else has a view I would be interested to hear.

The story with Exillon was a bit similar. An RNS made the shares plummet but now they are back to where they were. I quite like the Russian/Ukraine plays because the technical costs are very low compared to the N Sea and I don't think the political risk is nearly as bad as Kurdistan.

well it seems like it is being done to enable to the CEO to get things moving more quickly with regards to farm outs (or outright sales of assets) and further acquisitions. At the moment, the process of having to get PIs to vote on anything being done is slightly farcical, because the fact is that only approx 10% of the shares are held by PIs. We have no bearing on anything because most of it is held by a few groups. As an example, that eni deal took 3 months to go through, once you announce a vote (60 day notice), then pass it.

The move to standard listing means they don't have to in act a vote on most things, they just go out and do it. Personally I trust the BoD to get things done, otherwise I wouldn't have been here in the first place. Also our ceo is one of the biggest shareholders (through his spqr fund) so I believe he will want to get the best deal for all shareholders. Clearly he is looking to prove up the assets and sell out, which is why he wants to speed up this process.

Whippet, Any good shares left to invest 5k in?  I still have RRL

do you have any shares in HER jacqui? looks mighty impressive given all the high grades they are finding. patricia is worth about 4p/share as it stands, and will probably be worth double that when they update the mining inventory in q1 2012. plus there are 3 possible porphyry copper deposits they are targetting which could be huge. So 2.4p to buy is a bargain and I can't see how you can go wrong at this price.

There are a few others I have but her is my favourite I think.

ttt, thoughts from any of the forum shrewdies on cadogan

looks very very undervalued. notice some big hitter that used to work for Eni has now joined the board, makes be think big things are on the way, as he wouldn't be messing about with a minnow otherwise imo. also two new guys have just taken a 10% in the company (looks like they are mates of the ceo). I'm expecting an operations update in april, so not long to wait for the price to go up substantially imo. this one looks like a relatively low risk share.

Not liking this company much right now. 37p looks a very long, long away.

Agreed, Banwana. Interestingly, on iii posters are still claiming these RNS's are meant as tree shakers. At what point will investors admit the company is going nowhere fast? I hope it comes good for those still invested, but it could be a long road to break even for some.

i'm sure something must be going on, why else are there 3 new major shareholders who are friends of the ceo? plus all the negatively spun RNS's for some reason. First they talked about finding water at the bottom of pok well(and nothing about finding gas in the rest of the well). now they have said eni aren't taking up the 30%, but still haven't said if the well is actually commercial (eni think 30% more isn't worth £25m, but that still means the it could be worth £85m total, which is hardly insignificant for a company cad's size). my average is 28p anyway so going to give this a few more months, as i'm certain something good will happen by then.

Small jump for CAD today

Today's RNS - "Dear Private Investors, We have geat pleasure on returning your ass on a plate. Please forgive the bolognese sauce. All the best. Ciao bella sciocchi, The Board."
Ducks arse water.

what does today's rns mean?

CAD taking another beating the last few weeks. Time to bail?

18p i'm banking on not making 65 now

don't throw away the share certificates just yet - they will be useful for burning to keep ourselves warm in a few months.

someone has sold 11455 shares and there down 9.88%.....i hope nobody sells 114550 shares

You mean Wipeout's cut and paste stuff were actually priced in and never panned out?

Who woudda thunk?

not checked these for a couple of months and i notice they have dipped under 15p today for a while and the trades page is full of sells might sell myself and buy a kitkat with whats left

13.11p today, soon be single figures

UP 14.72% on Friday to 13.65p

make that 17.42%

ah well back from my travels, moved in my pad & back to work thought i check my mid numbingly disasterous investments
cad are plodding along still around the 13p mark

doh mind numbingly

ffs it's gone up, that's unusual somethings wrong

Whatever happened to joey? Is he still holding out for £1.40?