i]skipp 18 Jul 10 11:45   
GS
Where is the crash you predicted nearly 3 yrs ago ?
[/i]

Opening post from 2 and half years ago was for 15% nominal falls for 2008 , that is exactly what happend , since spring 2009 massive government intervention and stimulus have delayed the falls and given false hope to R-Soles such as yourself , the price for that manipulation and stimulus is about to be paid , enjoy it.

EEEEternal Optimist!!

What are you on about!! And Grey Shark, it is not your opening post that was that far wrong, but 18 months ago I dont think you predicted that the crash would stop and a mini boom occur!

Prices will not move far from where they are at present, but I think they are more likely to fall slightly than rise..

Prices will not move far from where they are at present, but I think they are more likely to fall slightly than rise..

The following article from "thisismoney" suggest otherwise--

Soaring numbers of homeowners are deciding to sell their properties in a move which will trigger a sharp house price fall, a report warns today.
Asking prices have fallen for the first time this year and are predicted to plunge even lower by the end of the year.

The average asking price, currently around £236,300 in England and Wales, will drop another £14,000 by December, the report by property website Rightmove said.

Asking prices dropped by 0.6% this month, with the typical seller knocking off £1,435 - the first drop since December.

The report blames the price fall on a rising tide of homeowners deciding to sell. More than 30,000 homes are flooding onto the market each week - almost 50% higher than last July. In London, the number of new sellers is 7% higher than last summer.

But there are too few buyers, according to Rightmove. As a result, the market will be controlled by buyers who will ask for big discounts. The site, which advertises about 90% of all properties for sale, said mortgages are being 'rationed', which is further cutting the number of buyers.

Each week, only 11,000 mortgages are being approved - just a third of the number of properties coming onto the market.

Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said: ' Buyers have got the upper hand.'

Meanwhile the number of unsold properties has been rising every month. In January, the average was 3 per estate agent, today it is 77 - the highest in two years.

Since the start of the year, asking prices jumped by about seven per cent, from an average of £221,463 to £236,332. But Mr Shipside said this gain will be 'wiped out' by the end of the year.

He said: 'With agents beginning to choke on a surfeit of new stock, sellers are going to have to price at bargain levels and bullishly promote their properties.'



The commercial director of Rightmove seems to see things differently to the office junior from Bognor.

chisel 20 Jul 10 09:58   
as with Interest rates this low sellers will not have their hand forced..


It's not all about interest rates ....

1)Up to half a million tenants to the bank oopps sorry that should be homeowners are having their unaffordable mortgages paid by the taxpayer , many of these will be coming off these charity schemes soon and there is no money to carry them on .

2)At least half a million public secter jobs to be lost over the coming 2-3 years already happening actually and this will have a knock on effect to the private secter including excrement such as yourself. The bulk of these public and private workers will be tennants to the bank and so will be struggling to pay their mortgages on their over priced properties.

3)Tax increases , VAT up to 20% in 6 months ,the cost of living going up whilst for most wages face cuts and freezes

4)Sentiment and the media turning bearish over the last few weeks warning the masses of the pain to come , this is bourne out by your recent posts on this forum becoming more desperate as you cling on to a few straws of hope .

The whole story.

Mortgage lending picks up in June

Lending in the first half of the year has been the same as in the first six months of 2009
Mortgage lending picked up in June, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

Gross lending, which includes lending to people remortgaging as well as house buyers, rose by 15% in June to £13.1bn.

This was 7% higher than a year ago and also the biggest monthly figure so far this year.

However, the CML said June's increase was just a seasonal pick-up and that lending remained subdued.

"There are signs of house prices stabilising and more properties coming onto the market following the abolition of home information packs" said the CML's economist CML Paul Samter.

"This may improve liquidity in the market, but transaction levels are subdued and likely to remain so while access to credit remains constrained," he added.

Subdued
Both of the main monthly house price surveys, from the Halifax and the Nationwide, show that prices have been levelling off in recent months, after rising briskly since the spring of 2009.

And the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) predicted last week that house prices in the UK might start to fall as the number of sellers start to outweigh the number of buyers.

The subdued outlook for the property market was underlined by comments from the Bank of England, in the latest edition of its monthly publication Trends in Lending.

"The major UK lenders expected demand for secured lending to remain muted," it said.

chisel 20 Jul 10 13:14   
Calling peopel with mortgages Tenants is ridiculous.


Tenant has several interpretations ....

http://www.elook.org/dictionary/tenant.html

[noun] any occupant who dwells in a place

[verb] occupy as a tenant

why don't you advise all your clients to refuse to pay their mortgages , then you and they will soon find out who realy OWNS their properties as the repossesion proceedings start . A 'homeowner' is not such until there is no mortgage or debt attached to their property , until such time they are little more than 'tenants to the bank'




You are the one who pays a landlord rent each month I just hope the landlord doesnt take your advice and sell his home   


Rent is a pittance , the landlord are two her's and not a his , they have no mortgage but on current values are honestly enjoying a yield of 2 and half % , pathetic .... keep guessing away chisel .

^^
EO as you well know chis does't know his @rse from his elbow ......

JML

You will find that mortgage approvals were actually up 15% year on year if you listen to the CML. Grey Shark , one thing is for sure, home owners may not own all their home but they do own some of it. If they are sensible abd pay their mortgage they WILL own all of it one day.

Many renters in this country that are unable to save a deposit or unwilling to buy , WILL NEVER OWN A PROPERTY..

That is the differnce. EO and Grey Shark, people in this country are payoing more off their mortgage than ever before. This is a good time for home owners with variable rates that in some cases are less than 1%. Do you really think it a bad thing to borrow money at less than 4% to buy a home.. If you HONESTLy think it is then you are seriously deluded!

JML

You can get sub 4% on mortgage up to 75% for your information. You can Fix two years at 3.15 and 3 years at 3.89%. You can Fix at 4 years at just over 4 and 5 years at 4.5%... These rates are low, and affordable.. Rates ARE NOT going up any time soon. In case you did not notice, the BOE was considering further easing , which means they seriousl y considered pumping more money in!! Arangement fees are about 1000 per rtgage, but if you borrow less than 100k it may be worth you paying a slightly higher rate and have a low fee or no fee at all.

There are GREAT mortgage options out there.

With a 15% deposit rates are almost down to 5% for 3 years, but at 90% rates are over 6%!! Still, rather affordable if you buy the right property at the right price. Please also remember that it is 18 months now since rates were slashed, and many existing homeowners have NEVER had it so good. I pay 1.25% on my mortgage , and 2.25% on my Buy To Lets... Surely I must be doing something wrong? Many of my friends and customers are on lifetime Tracker mortgages between 0.05 and 1% above the base rate... I can assure you that they are delighted they bought a home/remortgaged with me!!

JML

But you have somewhere to live and you are paying capital !!

I am sure that most of the people out there renting that do not have enough money for a deposit , would absolutely love to own their own home!

Those sitting in rented with money in the bank are a differnt kettel of fish. Thing is , if they did not buy in the last 18 months they have had a nightmare, as they would have been able to buy a cheaper property, or they would have had an affordable mortgage that they could be paying money off ! If I were one of them, I would be thinking that the number of properties coming to the market presents a good opportunity to buy!

and it isn't that i can't afford to buy....there's a flat just about big enough for us to live nearby in decent condition which i could buy three times over with cash. but the owner has had it up for sale for 18 months and gradually dropped the price by about 40% to what he paid for it in 2006 (before he spent loads doing it up). such illiquidity doesn't appeal.

Homeowners are facing a doomsday scenario of property prices diving by up to a quarter by the end of 2012.

This huge plunge could wipe more than £42,000 off the value of the average home. For the 3.3m who bought in the high-cost years of 2006 and 2007, as well as those who have bought this year, the spectre of negative equity and repossession could loom again.

Even those who put down larger deposits could find themselves stranded as their equity is eroded. If they try to borrow with depleted equity they could face massive fees and high interest rates. The devastating prediction comes from consultancy Capital Economics, which believes house prices could be down 5% by the end of this year and continue to fall another 10% next year and, a further 10% in 2012.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/article.html?in_article_id=510276&in_page_id=8&position=moretopstories#ixzz0v1RHFxNN

Chisel,

5% down this year - I thought this was fairly close to your current prognosis.

Care to share your 2011, 2012 predictions?  Clearly not -10%, -10%?

Kings statement also made a complete nonsence of what you posted on the other thread.
-----


chisel

everything is deflationary, and I am absolutely certain that next year will be tougher than this year!!

Deflation is a massive fear in 2012. If you strip out the vat increase inflation will be well below the 2% target

-------------
Kings saying inflation is here to stay and his hands are tied, theres not much he can do about it at the moment.
Of course it becomes a whole different ball game if his fears are proved wrong and the economic recovery continues, be difficult to hold the ultra low interest rate argument in the face of inflation then.

Chisel

Your claims on inflation become ever more ridiculous, the Governments Vat increase does not come into force until January!
how is that effecting the current above target inflation?, nothing to do with prices going up then?
What about this for a ludicrous statement,

chisel

Deflation is a massive fear in 2012. If you strip out the vat increase inflation will be well below the 2% target


Stip it out!! it hasn't been introduced yet! so you know what inflation will be come January, thats more than Mervin King does.

Your were predicting deflation over a year ago, and were shown to be completely wrong, prices have risen every month since then, now you have kicked it even further down the road 2012, you will still be wrong then

Mervyn King is not worried about deflation. What he is worried about is higher interest rates turning more debts bad, at the money sucking black hole largely owned by the government, that is RBS. RBS has done £57bn even while being allowed to rob savers with low rates and businesses and mortgage holders with higher rates.

"One of the main worries for RBS remains the likelihood of a medium-term increase in interest rates, with the APA saying that the currently low interest rates was the main reason the losses on the portfolio had not been higher.

In particular, the worry for RBS is that many of its borrowers that are just about surviving paying low interest rates will default with only a small increase in rates."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7905434/UK-taxpayer-in-line-for-5bn-profit-from-insuring-banks-toxic-assets.html

Potlis

He does not have to agree with me. It is blatanntly obvious that if VAT increases Infakltion also increases. The same thing will happen in January 2011 when VAT goes to 20%

If YOU undestood inflation you would knwo the answer. I will explain anyway. When inflation is calculated , The corresponding month from the previous year drops off the inflation figures. Therefore , when VAt 20% in January 2011 , the 17.5% figures fromj previois year drop off the cahrt. And the same thing happens every month......Until January 2012, when like for like VAT rates at 20% are compared. Do you really understand what you are going on about? Or are you so blinkered that you can not understand that because things got so bad, it will take years to get back to normal. The government has topay back 180 billion plus more.. Do you think that it is possible to do this with high interest rates??? It is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE

You are absolutely spot on . This is ALL about the banks. It always has been. Lets give people as long as possible to pay back their debt. Banks will recapitalise and all will eventually be okboni

If YOU undestood inflation you would knwo the answer. I will explain anyway. When inflation is calculated , The corresponding month from the previous year drops off the inflation figures. Therefore , when VAt 20% in January 2011 , the 17.5% figures fromj previois year drop off the cahrt. And the same thing happens every month......Until January 2012, when like for like VAT rates at 20% are compared. Do you really understand what you are going on about? Or are you so blinkered that you can not understand that because things got so bad, it will take years to get back to normal. The government has topay back 180 billion plus more.. Do you think that it is possible to do this with high interest rates??? It is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE
------------------
That reads as if you were pi$$ed when you posted it, and makes about as much sense.
Why dont you do some research before posting more claptrap,ONS figures show CPI inflation to have been 2.9% before the reintroduction of the vat cut, it then rose to 3.6% in January, which was inline with economists forecasts that the vat cut would effect CPI by 0.5%, as many of the items contained in the index are VAT exempt.
So inflation was almost 50% above target before the reintroduction of the vat cut, hardly supports your "than boom" theory, or that its vat and not prices thats the problem, does it?
Your trouble is that for business/personal reasons you desperately need rates to stay where they are, and you are willing to spout any nonsense in support of that.

Potlis

I explained why I believe inflation is slightly higher than it would otherwise be!!  It matters not a jot in any case . Inflation is unlikely to rise further in months ahead, rates are staying low and I intend on making the most of it .

In addition, my business would do much better if rates were to rise slightly! I have hundreds of customers paying Trackers or variable rates, which at present are too low for them to consider changing to a Fixed. When rates go up , these people will contact me to change deal!!  For teh minute I will continue ticking along, and enjoy the low interest rates. I know they will not be here forever, but if 5 years of low interest rates, I will hopefully have very little to pay!

Nah, too thin chisel, even you aren't dumb enough to have argued for the maintainence of a policy that restricts your business profits for years, well maybe you are!!, but the rest of your profession won't be, if "slightly higher rates" meant higher profits for the debt peddlers, the chorus for rates to rise would be deafening.

Interesting report in Saturdays Times, advises people to give mortgage brokers a swerve, as the best deals are no longer available through them, you need to go direct to the lender.