Banwana

I share your concerns. But ysterdays budget showed that the UK will keep its AAA rating . The tax rises were enormous, but the budget is being addressed. We should be optimistic about the future..

I see chisel is still spouting VI shiit. I note the Halifax announced a 0.6% drop the other day. Wasn't that the third month in a row? And at the time of year when you expect HPI. Is that what you mean by stable house prices? Keep blowing on the popped bubble buddy.

I also note that you are now talking about low inflation instead of deflation. I spanked your arse on that one as well didn't I?

You've convinced me. A rise of 200% isn't evidence of the biggest bubble in history. We are in a new paradigm where houses only ever go up in price. Where do I sign?

House prices have already crashed.
The Halifax index is 17% below it's August 2007 peak.

The debate is how much more (if any) they will fall.

^^^^
tuck 11 Jul 10 11:22   
a rise of 200% and a fall of 17% (very doubtful) gives a rise of 183% over a 12 yr period...would not want to be renting

Very doubtful ???? , Halifax figures ......
June 2010   = £167,570
August 2007 = £199,770

sure looks like a 17% fall to me .



a rise of 200% and a fall of 17% gives a rise of 183% over a 12 yr period

^^^^
yet another example tuck of your complete ignorance of the market .
EXAMPLE
House valued at £100,000 12 years ago
House goes up 200% in in value to £300,000
House loses 17% of TOTAL value of £300,000 so now worth £249,000 so NOT your 183% but 149% .


Now go stick your head back in the sand and carry on believing all is well

^^^^

Your first comment on this thread 2.5 yrs ago was that you predicted a 50% drop in the price of flats and you thought this was funny. Do you agree that you were inaccurate with this comment ?

It is pretty obvious i was refering to the 1,000's of new build city and town flats bought by amateur property investers , many of these now have a saleable value of half of what they were purchased for back at the peak of the boom in 2007 . And i still think it's funny HA HA .



A 150% increase in property over the next 12 yrs would be very nice for the home owners of this country...

Your obviously expecting massive hyperinflation over the next 12 years then ....

Birchola 12 Jul 10 07:24   


I bought two such flats back in 2007.  One has held its value.  The other is worth 10-15K less than the purchase price. 


You're living in the wrong area mate , property in my area has doubled in the last 7 days and it's still going up

EEternal!!

Very Funny, but I think you will find that this is not a one way street! Inflation os likley to fall below target in next 6 months. House price inflation is starting to cool, and there is still little in the way of mortgages at higher loan to values at sensible rates.. This can only lead to a TRICKY housing market, but will ensure interest rates stay low and that those with mortgages have a better lifestyle than those that rent!!

I am finding this debate a little bit tedious at present. Renters are clueless of teh benefits of a home with mortgage where the interest rate is low and the mortgage balance falling. They continue to rent, paying landlord too much rent and still have the same risks as everyone else. Are there really people out there renting that could buy if they wanted? I am not convinced?

well chisel you tell me this... i live in arguably the best suburb in melbourne - south yarra. I rent a one bedroom apartment paying 16,000 a year.
The apartment opposite me sold last weekend for 475,000.

That (using your words) 'clueless' owner will have to pay (oppurtinity cost adjusted for deposit) $33,250 at todays rate of 7%. On top of this they have to fork out body corporate fees of $1,800, council rates of $1500 and repairs and maintenance conservatively at $2,000 a year.

So im loving renting paying $16,000 a year to enjoy south yarra

Mr owner nextdoor not quite so buoyant paying $38,500 a year.

Tell me chisel, or rather convince me - why should i buy??? give me 22,500 good reason why

yeah fair call.. and your right i would buy a property but only when its better off financially for me than renting.

grey shark.

Are you anywhere near Weymouth?

Good to see this thread springing back into life, Chisel finds it "tedious" but cannot seem to stay away, judging from recent reports form those involved in the industry he will need another delivery of sand if he is to keep his head buried.
I'm an owner, and I can only see prices heading in one direction from here, down.

Sharky

you really do get your self at it !! As if I care where you live

Pangloss , self certificated mortgage have been banned for over a year now, so really unsure why this ridiculous piece of journalism makes the news..

In addition, it is a FSA requirement that even if a lender does not check income, the mortgage adviser MUST have the proof on file. Leners can ask for this proof at any time before and after the process..

Lady fingers. What I find tedious is that the doom mongers have been saying how great it is to rent during the past 18 months, when the rate they get on their saviongs has plummetted and house prices have risen 12%... There is no sign that rates are going to rise, and there is no reason house prices are going to plummett. Anyione that thinks it good to rent for year without buying at a time when they can get the lowest mortgage rates in history, honestly needs their head tested.. Why wait another tow or three years when you cvan get a five year fixed at 4% or a 10 year Fixed at 5%?? Ifg they wait and buy at a lower price, the mortgage rates they get may be 6 or 7 % Their lifestyle will be beter if they take teh mortgage and buy the house now...l I did say last year when rates dropped to 0.5% that it was agood time to buy if you have teh money, and the income..Any regrets Sharky?

Sharky, it is very quiet on House price crash these days isnt it? Even some of your cronies on House price crash have given up and bought a home!

Desperate!!. I am going to tell you what is going to happen. Lenders will very soon reach out to more borrowers by improviung the rate sthat they lend at and the higher loan to value loans will also become cheaper.. I may be lucky, but things are getting very busy at the moment

So people waiting to buy cheaper will have better rates.

You said exactly the opposite in your previous post.


I think you find that in a falling market,high loan to
value loans will disappear.

I wouldnt bother !! Rates are staying where they are for teh forseeable future!! Even when they do rise it wont be by much!

In addition ...This is not a falling market!! Moe availability of mortgages will help maintain property values.

http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/mortgages/coalition-ready-to-let-property-values-fall/1015197.article

25% off from here.

Association of Mortgage Intermediaries director Robert Sinclair said the Government does not want to stimulate the housing market and it may even want to see property values fall from a “disproportionate” level.

He said: “They do not want to be in that position again where people treat their properties like an ATM. We have got this big pressure coming from the Treasury where we saw this big rise in the capital value of property which they believe was disproportionate.

“They do expect this fall in the capital values of residential properties from about £4trn. They think £3trn might be a better number, nobody is going to come out and say that though.”


Seems like 25% to me.

Between 1988-2005 prices fell 38-40%.
Expect the same again.
When people have stopped talking about house prices then that will be the bottom of the market.

tuck  16 Jul 10 16:17
the article states if the Tories look after the economy then property will look after itself..25% down
 
tuck
don't think it's a good idea you mention percentages in your posts after your embarassing post from 11th July in which you showed your complete ignorance and lack of understanding of how percentages work on the downside .