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Like many i reckon this year will be bad for the housing market , many sellers are now having to take 10% more off prices to sell , estate agents are begging vendors to reduce their prices or they go bust , they talked it up now they are talking it down , reports also coming through of estate agents closing through lack of business ....LOL .
The last 2/3 years has seen the extinction of the First time buyer who has been replaced by the amateur developers , speculators and brainless Buy to let mob { many seeing the rents not even covering the mortgage } all believing the hype in the media and watching property porn programmes on TV, brainwashed into thinking property only ever goes up .
The banks have been only to willing to give them the huge amounts of credit they need to fuel there delusionary property dreams , these banks have shown unimaginable irresponsible and reckless lending to inflate the housing bubble even more , but now the credit crunch is here Northern Rock has blown up and these banks can't sell there loans and mortgage backed securities on to greater fools { usually pension , insurance or hedge funds } so they have to keep the loans on there own books and of course are now being extra careful who they lend too.
So with the tightening in lending now here , prices should be unsustainable and i expect average NOMINAL falls of 15% this year in asking prices, BUT factor in some inflation and i expect REAL falls of 20% over the year **, furthermore many BTL 'ers are realising the games up and are desperatly trying to sell their failed " property investments " ...LOL.
** = 20% average , adjusted for inflation REAL falls will vary from region to region .
The biggest laugh of all will be the 1,000's of town and city centre flats all over the country , these will take the biggest hit , many of these were bought by clueless/naive BTL'ers , most of these plasterboard shoeboxes will be worth at least 50% LESS than what they were purchased for , this is already happening .....LOL ....in 20/30 years time half of these sh1t blocks will be demolished imo.
Any other betfairians got a view ?
The last 2/3 years has seen the extinction of the First time buyer who has been replaced by the amateur developers , speculators and brainless Buy to let mob { many seeing the rents not even covering the mortgage } all believing the hype in the media and watching property porn programmes on TV, brainwashed into thinking property only ever goes up .
The banks have been only to willing to give them the huge amounts of credit they need to fuel there delusionary property dreams , these banks have shown unimaginable irresponsible and reckless lending to inflate the housing bubble even more , but now the credit crunch is here Northern Rock has blown up and these banks can't sell there loans and mortgage backed securities on to greater fools { usually pension , insurance or hedge funds } so they have to keep the loans on there own books and of course are now being extra careful who they lend too.
So with the tightening in lending now here , prices should be unsustainable and i expect average NOMINAL falls of 15% this year in asking prices, BUT factor in some inflation and i expect REAL falls of 20% over the year **, furthermore many BTL 'ers are realising the games up and are desperatly trying to sell their failed " property investments " ...LOL.
** = 20% average , adjusted for inflation REAL falls will vary from region to region .
The biggest laugh of all will be the 1,000's of town and city centre flats all over the country , these will take the biggest hit , many of these were bought by clueless/naive BTL'ers , most of these plasterboard shoeboxes will be worth at least 50% LESS than what they were purchased for , this is already happening .....LOL ....in 20/30 years time half of these sh1t blocks will be demolished imo.
Any other betfairians got a view ?
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Found it - http://www.your-mortgagecentre.com/about_us.htm
Looks like Chisel has had a gastric band fitted.
Looks like Chisel has had a gastric band fitted.
That's Chisel - he started off life as Shelts on this thread.
I rememeber when we had massive inflation. Wages went up to keep pace. Vicious cricle of course. Sorted house prices out nicely though.
Recent inflation figures show that our economists and other lords and masters are like bomb defusers who have no idea which is the right wire to snip or indeed whether they are all bad.
I am quite happy that the bankers are giving us the finger. They always had us by the short and curlies and could always do what they like; at least we are being real now.
Watch one of thouse excellent vids on how money is created and see how and why bankers love boom and bust and win on the up and win on the down and are absolutely to powerful to fail.
Recent inflation figures show that our economists and other lords and masters are like bomb defusers who have no idea which is the right wire to snip or indeed whether they are all bad.
I am quite happy that the bankers are giving us the finger. They always had us by the short and curlies and could always do what they like; at least we are being real now.
Watch one of thouse excellent vids on how money is created and see how and why bankers love boom and bust and win on the up and win on the down and are absolutely to powerful to fail.
Shiite majority poverty stricken in Saudi oil producing region neither same religion as the Sunni king nor historic vassals.If they kick off up goes teh oil price like an oilrig on fire. Inflation massive massive slump.
Unemployment massive, mortgage default massive. Price collapse along with everything else.
Will he wes criticise the Saudi king if he come down heavy.
All th massive arms purchase are for killimg there own peopl anyway
Unemployment massive, mortgage default massive. Price collapse along with everything else.
Will he wes criticise the Saudi king if he come down heavy.
All th massive arms purchase are for killimg there own peopl anyway
OK, I'll talk in general terms here, just because it can be as complex as you like, but I'll try to outline the main points.
The UK has several advantages if you compare it with (say) the European economies that have come under pressure; we have our own currency (a direct means of injecting money into the economy - there are others)and central bank (tighter fiscal control) and the fiscal 'crunch' is less acute because the nature of our debt is rather different (it is longer term debt as opposed to those weaker economies).
We have never defaulted on our debt and this alone means that the crisis of confidence in the UK as a borrower can be averted relative to the crisis hit economies. We also (because of the central bank point) can resist rising interest rates much more readily which further weakened vulnerable economies. Retaining your credit rating is important because that effectively sets the cost of borrowing for the government.
We also have a lower debt to GDP ratio(particularly when you strip out the banking sector intervention) than, for example, Japan and the US.
It is the capacity to control your own financial destiny and borrow against a robust credit rating that means that the UK can remain solvent. Where this position is undermined, a downward spiral can occur and lenders of last resort are required.
However, fiscal tightening is necessary; in this context in terms of debt servicing, and one way to reduce the ratio is clearly to reduce government spending - hence the cuts. How fast and deep you need to cut is the debate that put people on the streets the other day.
It is vital though, that the economy itself remains strong and the balance has to be struck between throttling back on spending and encouraging growth - previous crises have largely been mitigated by the private sector pulling the economy out of recession. Again, rising unemployment and cutting spending are risky to the extent that spending shifts to social security (as jobs are lost) and growth is less vigorous (you will see attempts to cut key, expensive, benefits). This itself can lead to a downgrading of the UKs credit rating and indeed Moody's have recently issued a warning on broadly this basis.
Copied from someone. Any comments from the experts?
The UK has several advantages if you compare it with (say) the European economies that have come under pressure; we have our own currency (a direct means of injecting money into the economy - there are others)and central bank (tighter fiscal control) and the fiscal 'crunch' is less acute because the nature of our debt is rather different (it is longer term debt as opposed to those weaker economies).
We have never defaulted on our debt and this alone means that the crisis of confidence in the UK as a borrower can be averted relative to the crisis hit economies. We also (because of the central bank point) can resist rising interest rates much more readily which further weakened vulnerable economies. Retaining your credit rating is important because that effectively sets the cost of borrowing for the government.
We also have a lower debt to GDP ratio(particularly when you strip out the banking sector intervention) than, for example, Japan and the US.
It is the capacity to control your own financial destiny and borrow against a robust credit rating that means that the UK can remain solvent. Where this position is undermined, a downward spiral can occur and lenders of last resort are required.
However, fiscal tightening is necessary; in this context in terms of debt servicing, and one way to reduce the ratio is clearly to reduce government spending - hence the cuts. How fast and deep you need to cut is the debate that put people on the streets the other day.
It is vital though, that the economy itself remains strong and the balance has to be struck between throttling back on spending and encouraging growth - previous crises have largely been mitigated by the private sector pulling the economy out of recession. Again, rising unemployment and cutting spending are risky to the extent that spending shifts to social security (as jobs are lost) and growth is less vigorous (you will see attempts to cut key, expensive, benefits). This itself can lead to a downgrading of the UKs credit rating and indeed Moody's have recently issued a warning on broadly this basis.
Copied from someone. Any comments from the experts?
I think this thread may've finally died. I'm the only poster in about 7 weeks.
Your paste thing boils down to the fact that there will be less money spent by consumers on goods and services over the next 3 or 4 years. How the "real econmomy" is supposed to grow when no-one is buying goods and sevice beats me.
Of course logically we can export ourselves out of this. But for every export that is cheap there are loads of imports that are dearer including energy. Do not back the great british worker in a race with the chinese and a few others. Anyone trying to make money should actually transfer their operation to China IMO. Ask Tesco if I am right.
Consequently house prices down down down. Which of course compounds the problem.
Of course logically we can export ourselves out of this. But for every export that is cheap there are loads of imports that are dearer including energy. Do not back the great british worker in a race with the chinese and a few others. Anyone trying to make money should actually transfer their operation to China IMO. Ask Tesco if I am right.
Consequently house prices down down down. Which of course compounds the problem.
As I've mentioned numerous times on here, I'm a renter, have been for 15 years and desperately want to get on the property ladder and surely will do in the next 6 months. I'm only saying this to prove that I don't have a particular vested interest in my outlook for house prices. My guess is that they won't go down much if at all. The yields are not so bad for landlords now and I think this would be a driving factor in keeping the prices up. Prices have dropped about a third in real terms I think, that is enough imo. They probably look quite cheap to foreigners too in view of the weak pound. I'd guess end 2011 they'll be within a 5% of what they are now. End 2014 I reckon they'll still be within 5% of what they are now, then I reckon they'll be modest gains. Either way I'm pretty sure I'll be better off buying because with a 15 year mortgage I'm pretty sure that any drop in price will easily be outweighed by the increased equity I'd own through my repayments. What is the worst that can happen? They drop by 10%/year for the next 3 years? I really can't see it. I'm more worried about unemployment.
I'm more worried about unemployment.
So is everyone else. If unemployment gets as bad as some fear do you still see prices holding up.
This is an honest question. If one becomes unemployed. I mean out of work and cannot get another.
which is the best plpace to be mortgage or rented?
So is everyone else. If unemployment gets as bad as some fear do you still see prices holding up.
This is an honest question. If one becomes unemployed. I mean out of work and cannot get another.
which is the best plpace to be mortgage or rented?
My own experience of house prices. Our house could have sold in April 2007 for £200,000 - £210,000. Valuation(s) last week said we would might be lucky and achieve £160,000. This is in a desirable village, local primary school 500 yards away has an outstanding reputation. Once the austerity measures start kicking in over the next few years, surely there is only one direction prices can go? And I have been a house price optimist all along .....
Sold our house in 2007 for 3.8 times what we had paid for it in 1998. Put all the money in gold and according to the zoopla estimate we could now buy 3.75 times the house we sold with it. It's only houses..... who's counting?
House prices ex South East starting to roll over.
Analysts caught off guard by inflation figures over the next few months means that the BoE will have to raise interest rates by a token quarter per cent come the Autumn. This should be enough to panic the thousands of sellers who have had their houses on the market for months if not years.
If you check out the following cpi data - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdtables1.asp?vlnk=mm23 you will see what is coming despite what King, Peston, Flanders et al keep saying - and to think we laughed at Comical Ali during the Iraq War.
Analysts caught off guard by inflation figures over the next few months means that the BoE will have to raise interest rates by a token quarter per cent come the Autumn. This should be enough to panic the thousands of sellers who have had their houses on the market for months if not years.
If you check out the following cpi data - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdtables1.asp?vlnk=mm23 you will see what is coming despite what King, Peston, Flanders et al keep saying - and to think we laughed at Comical Ali during the Iraq War.
Govt planning a scheme so that developers can build now and pay later when building new homes...asked all councils to identify land that is available to build on. To be announced in autumn..is this the start of something ...
Govt planning a scheme so that developers can build now and pay later when building new homes...asked all councils to identify land that is available to build on. To be announced in autumn..is this the start of something ...
Randomly picking on this one; because all remarks on house prices are contingent on the fk up on borrowing as embodied in Greece etc not going t1ts up.
The reality is that there are so many ways that Greece et al can go t1ts up and get borrowing and lending beat that house prices have little chance of staying here they are.
If this was a horse race house price stabilty has so much running against it that it would be by any logic a total outsider. Lay lay lay.
PS building enough houses reduces demand and therefore reduces prices anyway.
PPS our economy is purely based on house price booms because we produce nothing but speculation and imaginary money.
Randomly picking on this one; because all remarks on house prices are contingent on the fk up on borrowing as embodied in Greece etc not going t1ts up.
The reality is that there are so many ways that Greece et al can go t1ts up and get borrowing and lending beat that house prices have little chance of staying here they are.
If this was a horse race house price stabilty has so much running against it that it would be by any logic a total outsider. Lay lay lay.
PS building enough houses reduces demand and therefore reduces prices anyway.
PPS our economy is purely based on house price booms because we produce nothing but speculation and imaginary money.
as house prices are considered falling Rents still seem very high to me in comparison
are the Rental markets being controlled in a way to deter further price falls and will they follow suit shortly ?
are the Rental markets being controlled in a way to deter further price falls and will they follow suit shortly ?
I would have thought unemployment and increasing house sharing ( including adult children and parents) would lower demand for expensive rentals. Any evidence?
The only real evidence is in the pricing melv
Every property i currently look at is touted as a great 'Investment Property' due to the 7% odd rental yields (Not actual Capital)
The only people really buying at the moment are the 'Investors' so something has to give
Do they even care is the property price falls as long as their rents stay the same ??
Renters are forced to pay the going rate (no negotiation there as with the property price) not to mention housing benefit etc ..
Every property i currently look at is touted as a great 'Investment Property' due to the 7% odd rental yields (Not actual Capital)
The only people really buying at the moment are the 'Investors' so something has to give
Do they even care is the property price falls as long as their rents stay the same ??
Renters are forced to pay the going rate (no negotiation there as with the property price) not to mention housing benefit etc ..
melv 25 Jun 11 00:08
our economy is purely based on house price booms because we produce nothing but speculation and imaginary money.
Not this ignorant bollox again.
The UK manufactures more now than it ever has. Manufacturing production is now two-and-a-half times what it was in the forties.
Happily it's all done so much more efficiently and productively that only a minority of the workforce need to be involved in manufacturing. The rest can do anything from servicing one of the world's financial centres to inventing Betfair.
As it says here:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/22/manufacturing_figures/
"Build a better mousetrap and a myth will arise that you don't build anything anymore."
our economy is purely based on house price booms because we produce nothing but speculation and imaginary money.
Not this ignorant bollox again.
The UK manufactures more now than it ever has. Manufacturing production is now two-and-a-half times what it was in the forties.
Happily it's all done so much more efficiently and productively that only a minority of the workforce need to be involved in manufacturing. The rest can do anything from servicing one of the world's financial centres to inventing Betfair.
As it says here:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/22/manufacturing_figures/
"Build a better mousetrap and a myth will arise that you don't build anything anymore."
I take my hat off the GBP's faith in the inviolabilty of house prices. I never thought they would hold up this long.
I also know that many brits consider that we are the most brilliant buisness brains and the most inventive lot that have ever walked the earth and we can easily genius our way out of this. I hope nobody is thinking of exports. Who to?. China? has no one noticed the dependance is in the opposite direction.
For the Nth time the writing is again on the wall for the economy in general and house prices in particular.
I admit the GBP will probably continue to beleive their house are made of gold and that Cameron and Osborn will come on with a great plan and we will back in house price madness in a couple of years.
But eventually the dam will burst.
I also know that many brits consider that we are the most brilliant buisness brains and the most inventive lot that have ever walked the earth and we can easily genius our way out of this. I hope nobody is thinking of exports. Who to?. China? has no one noticed the dependance is in the opposite direction.
For the Nth time the writing is again on the wall for the economy in general and house prices in particular.
I admit the GBP will probably continue to beleive their house are made of gold and that Cameron and Osborn will come on with a great plan and we will back in house price madness in a couple of years.
But eventually the dam will burst.
Agree with you melv.
It seems that monthly sales of about 45,000 for England and Wales is enough to keep prices steady.
Not enough forced sellers at the moment, and loads of people who would
love to sell choosing to leave their properties on the market for months and years,thinking that the market will improve to meet their selling price.
It seems that monthly sales of about 45,000 for England and Wales is enough to keep prices steady.
Not enough forced sellers at the moment, and loads of people who would
love to sell choosing to leave their properties on the market for months and years,thinking that the market will improve to meet their selling price.
there a lot of people renting and with rents increasing at 5% per annum, are these people going to start to buy ? Im surprised how well house prices have held up but we are a small country with a large population.. if house prices were to collapse they would of done by now.
Im surprised how well house prices have held up but we are a small country with a large population
so was japan
so was japan
Lodon in flames. All stockmarkets through the floor.
The cure; we all have to face austerity which means accept you have no money to spend. And we must go for growth. Absurd how can you grow with no money to spend.
Many on here have seen this this coming since winter 2007.
Yet still the GBP think house prices are going up next year.
I'll go further most people have no idea there is anything serious going on. They think Cameron and Osbourne will have sorted everythingout by next year; when their house sells for loads more than they paid for it. They still want a profiit from thier house sale; a loss to them is absurd and un thinkable and there are still some dreamers prepared to pay these prices.
Mad world man mad world. How long before reality bites.
The cure; we all have to face austerity which means accept you have no money to spend. And we must go for growth. Absurd how can you grow with no money to spend.
Many on here have seen this this coming since winter 2007.
Yet still the GBP think house prices are going up next year.
I'll go further most people have no idea there is anything serious going on. They think Cameron and Osbourne will have sorted everythingout by next year; when their house sells for loads more than they paid for it. They still want a profiit from thier house sale; a loss to them is absurd and un thinkable and there are still some dreamers prepared to pay these prices.
Mad world man mad world. How long before reality bites.
Just don't panic melv.
We need all citizens to remain strong in the face of adversity.
And if that means, for example, that our PM has to break into his summer holidays in Tuscany, then so be it.
We all have to make supreme sacrifices in this moment of great need in our great country.
We need all citizens to remain strong in the face of adversity.
And if that means, for example, that our PM has to break into his summer holidays in Tuscany, then so be it.
We all have to make supreme sacrifices in this moment of great need in our great country.
Few things annoy me more on matters like this than patronising sarcasm.
With inflation at 5% could house prices just stagnate at +/- 2% /year and therefore go down in real terms without having people having negative equity so much. Just a thought from a novice.
House prices gone down about a third in real terms already haven't they, from peak. A few years of stagnation with 5% inflation and they'll virtually have halfed from peak. That'd be enough to make them relatively affordable and giving a very healthy yield for investors too.
Not saying this solves the problems in the bigger financial malaise this country is suffering or 'owt.
Not saying this solves the problems in the bigger financial malaise this country is suffering or 'owt.
Not if people's wages don't go up with inflation, which they won't. They will still be unaffordable.
But wages, if inflation is 5%, will prob go up at 2-3%. If house prices stay around 0% then they become more affordable.
Bottom is 126k?,on natiowide average house price index,poss 2014?Anyone agree?,disagree?
Disagree. Demand will increase, not decrease. Supply will not cover demand. Prices will not drop. Will stay at or there abouts £155,000. imo
Demand is not dependant on supply. Demand means the amount of money aviable. People have less money demand goes down.
How can anyone think prices can reamon stable in this climate. Madness.
OK money printing and low interest are having an effect but peole are spending their money on inflation. Not buying houses. Of course there will be openings for slum landlords sudividing the housing stock. Wonderful.
How can anyone think prices can reamon stable in this climate. Madness.
OK money printing and low interest are having an effect but peole are spending their money on inflation. Not buying houses. Of course there will be openings for slum landlords sudividing the housing stock. Wonderful.
Just posting this to landmark this historical document.
The decline and fall of western capitalism.
And a solution.
All our governments are doing is trying to let us down easy and let us down slow. Its happening hard and fast isn’t it.
The most dirt poor, raggy @rsed, corruption ridden country in the world is doing a good job of defeating batman and Robin; the UK / US partnership in Afghanistan.
On radio 4 this morning. US analysts announce that the American dream is over. Future generations no longer doing better than the past and the trickle down model of society; let the richest 1% run off with all the pies and the crumbs will make us all rich; never ever worked and cannot work.
An exciting announcement has been made. The answer to the debt crisis is th enable first time buyers to borrow more and get on the housing ladder. Isn’t this were we came in? Which bit of debt crisis is not understood here.
Soon our police and the EDL will be violently attacking peace demonstrators who are just trying to get us to wake up see what’s going on and looking for a totally new way of living together.
Please lets have some quality fors and againsts this argument. Any good books vids internet sites?
All this and the GBP still think that by the next election house price boom and borrow borrow borrow borrow and capuccino capuccinno capuccino will be back again.
The decline and fall of western capitalism.
And a solution.
All our governments are doing is trying to let us down easy and let us down slow. Its happening hard and fast isn’t it.
The most dirt poor, raggy @rsed, corruption ridden country in the world is doing a good job of defeating batman and Robin; the UK / US partnership in Afghanistan.
On radio 4 this morning. US analysts announce that the American dream is over. Future generations no longer doing better than the past and the trickle down model of society; let the richest 1% run off with all the pies and the crumbs will make us all rich; never ever worked and cannot work.
An exciting announcement has been made. The answer to the debt crisis is th enable first time buyers to borrow more and get on the housing ladder. Isn’t this were we came in? Which bit of debt crisis is not understood here.
Soon our police and the EDL will be violently attacking peace demonstrators who are just trying to get us to wake up see what’s going on and looking for a totally new way of living together.
Please lets have some quality fors and againsts this argument. Any good books vids internet sites?
All this and the GBP still think that by the next election house price boom and borrow borrow borrow borrow and capuccino capuccinno capuccino will be back again.
A lot has been made of this FTB scheme supported by the government but it's just a smokescreen. The real news hardly gets a mention. That REITs are going to turn to residential housing and they will do it with huge tax breaks associated with stamp duty, rental income and capital gains.
In 10 years over 50% of UK housing will be private rented owned by corporations from all over the world.
In 20 years after the growth of multiple occupancy housing lots of people in the UK will end up living in Japanese style pods like these
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/business/global/02capsule.html
Enjoy yourself.... it's later than you think.
In 10 years over 50% of UK housing will be private rented owned by corporations from all over the world.
In 20 years after the growth of multiple occupancy housing lots of people in the UK will end up living in Japanese style pods like these
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/business/global/02capsule.html
Enjoy yourself.... it's later than you think.
Not much of a crash in the last four years. Land registry says about 12pc down from peak over five years ago. Unless you were on interest only you would have paid that much of the debt off anyway. And it seems like the govt are determined to keep house prices high by whatever means.
In one sense yes. When measured against the pound prices have moved little. Of course we are all poorer because the pound is worth less against a basket of both currencies and other tangibles. In those terms we've already had the crash.
There's nothing funnier than someone stating the obvious.....incorrectly!
Yellow
Instead of sniping from the sidelines like a gutless coward feel free to clarify what was incorrect about my post.
Instead of sniping from the sidelines like a gutless coward feel free to clarify what was incorrect about my post.
You sound like I got you excited.
Should I do this in public, or do you prefer that I take you at the back of the shed before I pull your pants down?
Should I do this in public, or do you prefer that I take you at the back of the shed before I pull your pants down?
Come on EO... No more changing the goal posts. It waa quite clear to me that the point of this thread was that house prices would crash. In pounds. They have dropped 12pc over five and a half years, not a crash imo. fk inflation, debt repayments are the same regardless of inflation. If anyone giving it the big I am five years ago failed to consider that the government might make efforts to keep HPs up then theyre guilty of ignoring a pretty major fixture in the methodology. I mean it is like pricing up a footy game when not taking into account the relative merits of one team.
"No more changing the goal posts"
I'd like to add to that, no more posting under aliases......
....and certainly no more trying to state the obvious and getting it wrong.
BTW, rob, did you know that "money is merely a piece of paper backed by confidence"?
I'd like to add to that, no more posting under aliases......
....and certainly no more trying to state the obvious and getting it wrong.
BTW, rob, did you know that "money is merely a piece of paper backed by confidence"?
Chill mate, I wasn't talking to you...........
.....and in the interest of fairness, your position on the housing market on here is equally flawed as the clueless mug who tried to state the obvious and got it wrong.
You are saying a crash never happened, whereas he is saying "we've already had the crash". The truth lies somewhere in between.
.....and in the interest of fairness, your position on the housing market on here is equally flawed as the clueless mug who tried to state the obvious and got it wrong.
You are saying a crash never happened, whereas he is saying "we've already had the crash". The truth lies somewhere in between.
rob
It's a fair point. I was an avid proponent of a housing crash for a long time and I did underestimate the lengths to which the government would go to underpin it. It's all relative of course. London and some other choice places are still living in la la land but lots of other places did crash even in sterling. I sold my house in spring 2008 and was informed a little while ago that the couple who bought it split up and took a £75,000 loss on the property a couple of years later. I felt very sorry for them but that's life.
It's a fair point. I was an avid proponent of a housing crash for a long time and I did underestimate the lengths to which the government would go to underpin it. It's all relative of course. London and some other choice places are still living in la la land but lots of other places did crash even in sterling. I sold my house in spring 2008 and was informed a little while ago that the couple who bought it split up and took a £75,000 loss on the property a couple of years later. I felt very sorry for them but that's life.
Melly
I asked you what was incorrect about my post. Either piss of get off the pot.
I asked you what was incorrect about my post. Either piss of get off the pot.
Wrong again. In fact the opposite. I grow increasingly weary of your vacuous interventions. You're a busted flush with little to offer outside cut and pastes and vitriol and you know it but what really hurts you is that you know that I know it.
Is this my signal to pull your pants down in public?
By George, I think it is.
By George, I think it is.
Eeternaloptimist 28 Mar 13 10:09
In one sense yes. When measured against the pound prices have moved little. Of course we are all poorer because the pound is worth less against a basket of both currencies and other tangibles. In those terms we've already had the crash.
Ever cross your mind you would have been better off staying in the Politics forum shouting "I love Thatcher" instead of trying to sound smart on here and getting caught how clueless you really are?
Yeah, we all get it, the government is going to great lengths to support the housing market from falling further and inflation is making us all poorer in real terms. Just like telling us money is fiat, stating the obvious earns you zero points on here, at least with anyone posting on here who can fog a mirror that is. Stating the obvious might have been okay of course in this case, or at least forgivable, if you simply said that, instead of trying to make your posts sound like a financial guru and smarter than you really are. This is where it all falls apart for you. You are all fluff and no substance.
"When measured against the pound prices have moved little"
"When measured against the pound"???? Did you have to think long and hard to drop this pearl of wisdom on the forum? What else are houses possibly selling for in the UK but GBPs? Last I checked the listings, no one is selling their home for renminbi, or ounces of gold, or barrels of oil, or my wife's diamonds. But far more important, "they have moved little" my arse. As rob already pointed out they have already moved down 12pc from peak in NOMINAL terms, and they moved down at least double that in REAL terms, depending whose inflation numbers you want to believe.
"Of course we are all poorer because the pound is worth less against a basket of both currencies and other tangibles."
Bandying about words that someone familiar with economics would use doesn't disguise your massive ignorance, quite the opposite, it exposes it. The GBP is not measured against a "basket of other currencies", only the USD does through USDX. That's because it is the world's reserve currency, and the GBP is not. What you probably meant to say is that the GBP, since it's a free floating currency and the FX market determines its value, has been losing value against some other currencies, causing some import prices to rise.
Of course anyone remotely familiar how the real world words, not just sh1t they read in newspapers and try to repeat on here to impress, would simply have said the GBP has been sliding against the USD which causes some prices on imported goods to rise. After all, the majority of international trade contracts are written in USDs (it's called the global reserve currency for a reason) so the relationship to the USD is just about the only one that counts. I'm surprised someone with your "legal experience" didn't know that! (Sorry, couldn't help myself there)
"In those terms we've already had the crash"
No, I'm afraid not. The only "crash" so far has happened on banks balance sheets and nowhere else. And that's because those "assets" on bank balance sheets were adjusted higher with M2M as home prices were rising, leaving a gaping hole on over leveraged banks when prices started going down. That's why M2M accounting was displaced with mark to fantasy, to hide bank insolvency. And that's why the government is hell bent in creating schemes and continues to throw money to support the housing market.
Moreover, the housing market is priced at the margin so to most people, those who didn't use their home like an ATM or just simply those not involved in selling or buying in the first place (which is most home owners) this is much ado about nothing. And not all markets are the same. Around where I live, home prices today are higher than pre-crisis levels. And it's not because London lives in la la la, it's because it has unique market characteristics that underpin this particular market. So to say "we've already had the crash" is not just stupid, it's indicative of your poor understanding of what really is happening in the housing market and what a "crash" is all about.
You can push that cart down the street now, just make sure you don't forget to take your liver with you. Pass me the Chianti.
In one sense yes. When measured against the pound prices have moved little. Of course we are all poorer because the pound is worth less against a basket of both currencies and other tangibles. In those terms we've already had the crash.
Ever cross your mind you would have been better off staying in the Politics forum shouting "I love Thatcher" instead of trying to sound smart on here and getting caught how clueless you really are?
Yeah, we all get it, the government is going to great lengths to support the housing market from falling further and inflation is making us all poorer in real terms. Just like telling us money is fiat, stating the obvious earns you zero points on here, at least with anyone posting on here who can fog a mirror that is. Stating the obvious might have been okay of course in this case, or at least forgivable, if you simply said that, instead of trying to make your posts sound like a financial guru and smarter than you really are. This is where it all falls apart for you. You are all fluff and no substance.
"When measured against the pound prices have moved little"
"When measured against the pound"????
Did you have to think long and hard to drop this pearl of wisdom on the forum? What else are houses possibly selling for in the UK but GBPs? Last I checked the listings, no one is selling their home for renminbi, or ounces of gold, or barrels of oil, or my wife's diamonds. But far more important, "they have moved little" my arse. As rob already pointed out they have already moved down 12pc from peak in NOMINAL terms, and they moved down at least double that in REAL terms, depending whose inflation numbers you want to believe. "Of course we are all poorer because the pound is worth less against a basket of both currencies and other tangibles."
Bandying about words that someone familiar with economics would use doesn't disguise your massive ignorance, quite the opposite, it exposes it. The GBP is not measured against a "basket of other currencies", only the USD does through USDX. That's because it is the world's reserve currency, and the GBP is not. What you probably meant to say is that the GBP, since it's a free floating currency and the FX market determines its value, has been losing value against some other currencies, causing some import prices to rise.
Of course anyone remotely familiar how the real world words, not just sh1t they read in newspapers and try to repeat on here to impress, would simply have said the GBP has been sliding against the USD which causes some prices on imported goods to rise. After all, the majority of international trade contracts are written in USDs (it's called the global reserve currency for a reason) so the relationship to the USD is just about the only one that counts. I'm surprised someone with your "legal experience" didn't know that! (Sorry, couldn't help myself there
) "In those terms we've already had the crash"
No, I'm afraid not. The only "crash" so far has happened on banks balance sheets and nowhere else. And that's because those "assets" on bank balance sheets were adjusted higher with M2M as home prices were rising, leaving a gaping hole on over leveraged banks when prices started going down. That's why M2M accounting was displaced with mark to fantasy, to hide bank insolvency. And that's why the government is hell bent in creating schemes and continues to throw money to support the housing market.
Moreover, the housing market is priced at the margin so to most people, those who didn't use their home like an ATM or just simply those not involved in selling or buying in the first place (which is most home owners) this is much ado about nothing. And not all markets are the same. Around where I live, home prices today are higher than pre-crisis levels. And it's not because London lives in la la la, it's because it has unique market characteristics that underpin this particular market. So to say "we've already had the crash" is not just stupid, it's indicative of your poor understanding of what really is happening in the housing market and what a "crash" is all about.
You can push that cart down the street now, just make sure you don't forget to take your liver with you. Pass me the Chianti.
Are you a repressed homosexual? All these male sexual conquest fantasies. Just throw that closet open. Nobody really cares that much these days.
"I don't just slay dragons, I rip their heart and liver out and eat it too."
Menelaus
circa 2013
Menelaus
circa 2013
This is what I have reduced you to. Nothing but an incoherent bellowing buffoon unsure of which way to turn and so you plough on. Poor Melly.
The only thing poor on here is you incoherent (and rather vile if I may add) effort to hide the fact that I used you as an a$$ wipe again.
But far more important, "they have moved little" my arse. As rob already pointed out they have already moved down 12pc from peak in NOMINAL terms
How much did they fall in America? How much in Ireland? How much in Spain? The crucial question is, based on historical trends how much are they still overpriced and how much would they have fallen had they fallen by the average of previous house price crashes? Most things are relative. Except your bellicose stupidity. That is absolute. Again you shot yourself in the foot by your admission about London which merely proved my own earlier point about there being a crash in some places but relative stability and even rises in others. There is no true national picture.
Around where I live, home prices today are higher than pre-crisis levels. And it's not because London lives in la la la, it's because it has unique market characteristics that underpin this particular market.
See my point above but again it is the cry of the deluded throughout history. This time it's different, unique characteristics, blah blah bah.
As for most of the rest of your post it's the same old same old. Yes the dollar is the world's reserve currency but that doesn't mean it is an invalid comparison to say that measured against those other currencies house prices have crashed. Similarly if measured again other tangibles like gold, silver etc there has been a house price crash as I pointed out. All incontrovertible facts which is why you keep referencing those mirrors, for what is your smoke without them?
Would you like that chianti left with you in the gutter or do you and the other winos have a special place to drink?
How much did they fall in America? How much in Ireland? How much in Spain? The crucial question is, based on historical trends how much are they still overpriced and how much would they have fallen had they fallen by the average of previous house price crashes? Most things are relative. Except your bellicose stupidity. That is absolute. Again you shot yourself in the foot by your admission about London which merely proved my own earlier point about there being a crash in some places but relative stability and even rises in others. There is no true national picture.
Around where I live, home prices today are higher than pre-crisis levels. And it's not because London lives in la la la, it's because it has unique market characteristics that underpin this particular market.
See my point above but again it is the cry of the deluded throughout history. This time it's different, unique characteristics, blah blah bah.
As for most of the rest of your post it's the same old same old. Yes the dollar is the world's reserve currency but that doesn't mean it is an invalid comparison to say that measured against those other currencies house prices have crashed. Similarly if measured again other tangibles like gold, silver etc there has been a house price crash as I pointed out. All incontrovertible facts which is why you keep referencing those mirrors, for what is your smoke without them?
Would you like that chianti left with you in the gutter or do you and the other winos have a special place to drink?
Talk about the pan calling the kettle burnt arse. The man who fantasises about pulling other mens pants down and buggering them complains of vile.
Oh, look what we have here, an incoherent "I'll create a diversion" by posting a "hey look over there" post as a follow up, to draw attention away from the fact that I just had my balls squeezed in a vice on the drivel I had posted earlier. Lovely
Where is the comparison to other countries mentioned in all the drivel you posted before (except the glaringly obvious part of course)? Why wasn't this "crucial question" addressed and answered by you before? Why don't you man up and grow some marbles and admit what you posted was stating the obvious garnished with rubbish words you don't understand trying to sound smart?
Why don't you act, how shall I put it......SANE for a change?
Where is the comparison to other countries mentioned in all the drivel you posted before (except the glaringly obvious part of course)? Why wasn't this "crucial question" addressed and answered by you before? Why don't you man up and grow some marbles and admit what you posted was stating the obvious garnished with rubbish words you don't understand trying to sound smart?
Why don't you act, how shall I put it......SANE for a change?
Isn't it obvious? How would I converse with you?
This is pure comedy. Dark and tragic for sure but really entertaining and face slapping obvious in its fails. There's also an element of suspense, like a third rate horror movie where the villain keeps coming back to life after dying countless times.
.....if you look closely though, his heart and liver are missing.
.....if you look closely though, his heart and liver are missing.
"I don't just slay dragons, I rip their heart and liver out and eat it too. Then I go on the internet in my bedroom to boast about it."
Menelaus
circa 2013
Menelaus
circa 2013
"I don't just slay dragons, I rip their heart and liver out and eat it too. Then I go on the internet in my bedroom to boast about it."
Indeed. I bet the rats wish they had ear plugs.
Indeed. I bet the rats wish they had ear plugs.
The dead zombie is back, the dead zombie is back, quick someone hand me a silver spike.
Remind me again, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured in pounds"?
I bet even the rats are enjoying watching you get tortured on here.
Remind me again, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured in pounds"?
I bet even the rats are enjoying watching you get tortured on here.
The Melly show seems to have lost its audience. Was it something you said?
No so fast, eeternalzombie.
Allow the forum to first digest the deep and profound wisdom we were so fortunate to have you share with on here. Sort of like savouring a very expensive vintage Port in small sips………before it turns into vinegar.
But just to clarify and help us along, remind us again, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"? Is it more, less or the same when measured against jelly beans?
Allow the forum to first digest the deep and profound wisdom we were so fortunate to have you share with on here. Sort of like savouring a very expensive vintage Port in small sips………before it turns into vinegar.
But just to clarify and help us along, remind us again, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"? Is it more, less or the same when measured against jelly beans?
Meths remains meths irrespective of whether you imagine it is vintage port Melly.
Just out of curiosity, on your first response to rob you said "we've already had the crash". In your second post, when rob called out that you were moving the goal posts, you back-pedaled and said "I did underestimate the lengths to which the government would go to underpin."
So, did you know better but were just plain lying in the first post to cover up your naive prediction, or were you being honest but just totally clueless?
I'm a stickler for accuracy.
Choose carefully.
(I think you'd be better off the admit you are clueless but since I've yet to come across one of your posts without lies and deception, my money is on lying)
So, did you know better but were just plain lying in the first post to cover up your naive prediction, or were you being honest but just totally clueless?
I'm a stickler for accuracy.
Choose carefully.
(I think you'd be better off the admit you are clueless but since I've yet to come across one of your posts without lies and deception, my money is on lying)
And I'm a stickler for comprehension. If you fail to comprehend some quite simple points then you are the one with the problem. Have another read and it should be obvious even to you. By the way I don't lie but you are going to get an even worse reputation if you continue to selectively misquote people.
I'll tell you what. If you continue to struggle all you have to do is swallow your pride say please and I will explain it even more clearly for you.
I'll tell you what. If you continue to struggle all you have to do is swallow your pride say please and I will explain it even more clearly for you.
But in parting, I still want to know however, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"?
I didn't and have no need to lie. Outside of cutting and pasting and your tired vaudeville routine you struggle with basic understanding of language and so not only do you not understand others you tie yourself in knots most of the time. You're an angry man. I can think of two likely causes which would be repressed homosexuality or impotence. Of course they could be linked.
No, no, seriously, stop messing about, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"?
I know you get yours for free down at the drop in centre so you wouldn't know but a loaf of bread doesn't usually cost £3 Melly.
What is usual for you is not usual for me but you have to be sane to understand that........and not green with envy.
I ask you again to explain, it's your terminology from a post in very same thread, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"?
I ask you again to explain, it's your terminology from a post in very same thread, how much is a £3 loaf of bread when "measured against the pound"?
Yes but your question springs from a damaged mind which failed to understand the point. Constantly repeating the question merely reinforces this fact.
I'm constantly rubbing your face in the sh1t you posted, using words you lifted from what you read without understanding them, and trying to pass them off on here as knowledge.
"When measured against the pound prices have moved little"
What the f/k are home prices in the UK measured against other than pounds halfwit? Marbles? Jelly beans? Or, your nonexistent wife's arthritis pills?
"When measured against the pound prices have moved little"
What the f/k are home prices in the UK measured against other than pounds halfwit? Marbles? Jelly beans? Or, your nonexistent wife's arthritis pills?
You can measure them against a variety of things and get a far more accurate assessment of where house prices and the wider economy truly stand. Do you really think people felt rich during Weimer even if they had a house but were holding paper? Let me ask you another question which will further illustrate my point. Feel free to put your trainers on and limber up ready to run:
If there has been a deliberate ploy of devaluing the currency and gold/silver and those various other currencies, including the dollar, I mentioned have risen in value against that currency would you say that when measured against gold et al there has been a house price crash since the financial crisis or do you still rigidly stick to this line that the only valid measure of what a house is worth has to be against that devalued currency?
You see I have a mental picture of you sat in your shiit and piss stained trousers, emaciated, malnourished and gravely ill but surrounded by millions of devalued pounds shouting out to anyone who will listen that you are a millionaire.
You are that man. You know Mr Flip Flop. The one who constantly tells us what peril we are in and yet for the sake of scoring non existent cheap points which nobody will read you want to rely on what you profess is a discredited currency.
Now go back and read my posts again. Carefully.
If there has been a deliberate ploy of devaluing the currency and gold/silver and those various other currencies, including the dollar, I mentioned have risen in value against that currency would you say that when measured against gold et al there has been a house price crash since the financial crisis or do you still rigidly stick to this line that the only valid measure of what a house is worth has to be against that devalued currency?
You see I have a mental picture of you sat in your shiit and piss stained trousers, emaciated, malnourished and gravely ill but surrounded by millions of devalued pounds shouting out to anyone who will listen that you are a millionaire.
You are that man. You know Mr Flip Flop. The one who constantly tells us what peril we are in and yet for the sake of scoring non existent cheap points which nobody will read you want to rely on what you profess is a discredited currency.
Now go back and read my posts again. Carefully.
Weimer????
If you are writing long posts to perform evasive maneuvers and sound smart, at least get the f/king names right.
I'm on conference call with clients in the US. What's your f/king excuse? Having trouble sleeping at night?
If you are writing long posts to perform evasive maneuvers and sound smart, at least get the f/king names right.
I'm on conference call with clients in the US. What's your f/king excuse? Having trouble sleeping at night?
So looking back, was Shelts/Chisel right after all? Did he not predict low interest rates for 5 years, house prices to stay stable, Mortgage rates to come down? Savings rates to fall.. Government to "throw the kitchen sink " at the problem.
I think they were ! Govt policy is all roads leading to the property market
Boom gonna continue now the oaps dont need to waste their money on an annuity.
struggle with a mortgage for 25 years ----- leave it to your kids -- let them blow it on drugs , cars , holidays etc etc etc
more and more young couples are now being strangled by debt . A sad state of affairs , cant even afford to go for a drink and have to work every weekend as well as overtime in the week just to make ends meet .
Youd be better of in jail imo .
Youd be better of in jail imo .
Like it or not, we're a low wage economy now.
How on earth did that happen?
How on earth did that happen?
Yep and getting lower. Especially as rents and mortgages to take up most of spending power.
Yep Shelts, chizel woz right. I don;t understand how. the same problem never went away and now we are going to have another house price boom on top of the the ever growing debt underlying it it all!!!!!!!! MADNESS
I mus be fick I do not get it. Oi fort you need ups and downs booms and busts etc for the money makers to work their psychedelic magicians mathematical tricks. I stand back in amazement.
Yep Shelts, chizel woz right. I don;t understand how. the same problem never went away and now we are going to have another house price boom on top of the the ever growing debt underlying it it all!!!!!!!! MADNESS
I mus be fick I do not get it. Oi fort you need ups and downs booms and busts etc for the money makers to work their psychedelic magicians mathematical tricks. I stand back in amazement.
Melv, you were not the only one not to get it! Whilst the Likes of Grey Shark were heralding a property market collapse, Shelts/Chisel stood firm and explained rationally why the UK property market would not go bad. Explaining that Interest rates would get slashed and Government would do all it can avoid a collapse, mainly to protect the Banks. The reality is that this thread died when the doom mongers arguments were shown to be a figment of their imaginations.
Like it or not, we're a low wage economy now.
How on earth did that happen?
1) international competition sending decent paid non-leadership/creative jobs to places where people work harder/are better educated/are paid less.
2) and to where companies pay less tax/rent and have to put up with less onerous regulation.
3) technology replacing many decently paid jobs and creating new roles not defended by pre-existing protectionist movements.
4) immigration.
5) government subsidising jobs through tax credits, etc.
How on earth did that happen?
1) international competition sending decent paid non-leadership/creative jobs to places where people work harder/are better educated/are paid less.
2) and to where companies pay less tax/rent and have to put up with less onerous regulation.
3) technology replacing many decently paid jobs and creating new roles not defended by pre-existing protectionist movements.
4) immigration.
5) government subsidising jobs through tax credits, etc.
yes, FA the chiseler was vindicated, but only at the cost of the government exacerbating the problem. we now have an economy which will never be able to support interest rates at a level suitable for wise allocation of resources. the problem has been postponed (perhaps by long enough for continiung immigration and a shortage of housebuilding to avoid a massive crash as opposed to lengthy stagnation, but not to avoid wider economic doom).
And still the property market continues to increase, mortgage rates continue to fall , and the Doom mongers have disappeared. Where is Grey Shark? Where is Chisel?
quit when your ahead...sell and buy in spain...thank me in ten years time
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