TimeformBlog

Saturday's card at Kempton looked full of quality on paper and it didn't disappoint, with novice Quinz emulating Gloria Victis by winning the highly-competitive Racing Post Chase despite only limited experience over fences, in the process continuing Philip Hobbs' and Richard Johnson's stranglehold on the valuable race.

Prominent throughout, Quinz put in such an exemplary round of fencing that connections are now very much considering the Grand National, despite his jockey not initially being convinced the horse was ready for such a test. The fact that he may never get another chance to race off 10-8 could shape their thoughts and there's every possibility that he may now miss the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase at Cheltenham for the Aintree showpiece. He also has the option of the Mildmay Novices' Chase at the same meeting so it will be interesting as to where we see him next.

Mount Oscar rolled back the year's and nearly emulated Marlborough, who won the race aged twelve in 2004, when looking likely to overhaul the winner, before Quinz seemed to find more after the last. This was a spirited performance and, incredibly for one of his age, his highest rated effort over fences.

Nacarat ran a gallant race in third but the weight seemed to tell, possibly finding the rain-softened conditions more testing than he would have appreciated. It's hard to be certain whether the breathing operation and first-time tongue strap had any effect as it wasn't surprising that his effort petered out in the straight on the ground and we may know more when he is back on a better surface.

In the Pendil Novices' Chase, Captain Chris finally landed his first win over fences after succumbing to Ghizao (twice) and Medermit in his three chase starts. In all honesty this race wasn't much of a test for him though as American Trilogy's jumping left a lot to be desired, whilst Adams Island simply wasn't good enough. Like the same owner's Wishfull Thinking, Captain Chris is still in the RSA Chase, but recent reports suggest they could both take their chance in the Golden Miller, rather than take on the likes of Ghizao and Medermit again, and they are both strong contenders.

The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle saw a clutch of ex-French horses make their British debut and it was Arc winner Zarkava's half-brother Zarkandar who impressed most. Having apparently taken time to get over being gelded, Zarkandar created a good impression on his hurdling debut, suddenly appearing on the bridle in the straight after momentarily being out-paced by sharper rivals turning in. Somewhat excitable beforehand, his performance on track was thoroughly professional, and he now heads straight to the Triumph Hurdle, for which he is now one of the leading fancies.

Runner-up Molotof , who's fluent jumping allowed him to travel well throughout the race, ran an encouraging race before being overhauled close home and can surely win good races for a trainer who won the race with Punjabi, Binocular and Soldatino in the last four years.

The Dovecote Novices' Hurdle provided a very impressive winner in Sire de Grugy, who had no trouble ploughing through the soft ground and stepped up on his minor wins at Fakenham and Folkestone to put himself firmly in line for further Graded success. He won't have that opportunity at Cheltenham, however, as he is not entered in anything, but Aintree beckons and providing he gets his conditions, he'll be a force to be reckoned with as his jumping looks assured and he's open to more improvement.

Paul Nicholls will have been disappointed with the running of Toubab, whose ability to jump probably wasn't helped by the soft ground, but he will have been delighted with the progress of Empire Levant, who stepped out of juvenile company with a highly promising, albeit well-beaten, second. He too may prefer better ground so is one to follow closely back on more suitable terrain.

In the concluding bumper, Oscar Magic opened his account at the first time of asking, at the expense of previous winner Tour d'Argent. He clearly knew his job, responding well when pressed to record a pleasing win and he looks to have a bright future over hurdles. In the meantime, however, he's now close up in the market for the Champion Bumper at the Festival.

Heavy conditions at Newcastle produced an Eider that caused some within the industry to question it's four mile one furlong distance, as the race itself reduced most competitors to a walk, none more so than eventual third Morgan Be, who somehow scrambled over the last to bag some prize money after being all but pulled up in the straight. All the plaudits must go to winner Companero however, as he brushed off his trainer's pre-race talks of retirement with a pillar-to-post victory, showcasing a foot-perfect round of jumping and seemingly endless reserves of stamina to win by 30 lengths from the very tired Giles Cross. The runner-up, who loves heavy ground but may not have stayed the full marathon distance, was the only horse to give chase to the winner and deserves full credit for doing so.

Despite having what looked a very hard race, both horses have been reported to be none the worse for their exertions, but time will tell whether it will have left its mark permanently.

Switching codes, there was also quality action on the all-weather at Lingfield where the front-running Waveband produced a career-best in taking the Listed Cleeves Stakes from another filly in Anne of Kiev. Seemingly thriving since joining David Barron in October of last year, she is equally as effective on turf so connections have an exciting prospect to start the season with.

On Sunday, the Graded action continued at Fontwell where Celestial Halo confirmed his well-being with victory in the National Spirit Hurdle. Not having to match his Kingwell performance of a week ago, he nonetheless impressed by backing the performance up with another classy effort and is now due to attempt to right the wrongs of last year's fall when leading in the Aintree Hurdle. In this form he will be a major player.

Of the supporting races, Fruity O'Rooney was perhaps the classiest performer and he made all to win the novices' chase, carrying on the Moore family's fine form after Sire de Grugy's performance yesterday. However, he is now going to be hard to place with a double penalty from now on and is seemingly no better than a fairly useful staying novice.

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Fifty of the best prospects for the Flat from Timeform's experts, plus big-name interviews & much, much more. Read on to find out exactly what's inside...

We do our homework. Those aren't our words, but the words of Walter Swinburn. Our words would be 'Horses To Follow is absolutely brilliant and you must get a copy.' Swinburn's endorsement came on completion of the interview he kindly gave us, in which we apparently asked the right questions about the right horses, but also some of the 'wrong' horses as far as he was concerned; those he might have preferred to keep under wraps, as any shrewd trainer would.

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A slight lull in proceedings this week as the anticipation builds ahead of 'Super' Thursday. Nevertheless Stephen Molyneux has identified a trio of bets at Meydan to keep us going.

The 16:15 is probably the most competitive race on the card but that should at least guarantee a good price about Persiste Et Signe who is taken to reverse form with Sweet Lightning. They were both comfortably put in their place by Golden Sword last time, no disgrace in that, Sweet Lightning finishing second but it was the performance of Persiste Et Signe back in seventh that caught the eye more. He was responsible for a sound gallop and was briefly clear off the home turn, no disgrace in eventually getting swallowed up and he can also be expected to come on for the run given it was his first outing for two months. He was consistent in France, certainly more consistent than Sweet Lightning, and there is nothing as well handicapped as Golden Sword to be worrying about here.

Races for the classic generation have been weak affairs at the Carnival this year and the listed event at 16:55 is no exception. As a result it looks a good opportunity for Janood who took too long to get going when fourth behind Zanzamar on his reappearance over seven furlongs. He made a promising start to his career last year, winning his first two starts including a listed race at Newbury. Admittedly the form is nothing special and he did go off the boil afterwards, but it looks significant that Godolphin are persevering with him and he should be good enough to account for today's rivals.

The 18:15 will see several re-oppose from a race won by Across The Rhine last week, Swop finishing ahead of Hujaylea and Warsaw that day but it is the last-named of that trio that makes most appeal here. He was a winner on his penultimate start (Hujaylea back in third) and he travelled really strongly last time only to be caught too far back when the sprint for home began. He was fairly flying at the finish and looks well worth a try over this trip. Swop is a big danger given that he was arguably unlucky as well having met some trouble, but he struggles to get his head in front despite often shaping well and preference is for Warsaw.

Recommendations:
Back Persiste Et Signe in the 16:15
Back Janood in the 16:55
Back Warsaw in the 18:15

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The postponement of the previous Saturday's card arguably hit the totesport Trophy more than the other races on the day, with numbers reduced and the fall in prizemoney meaning its long-held title as Britain's most valuable handicap hurdle didn't apply. In a thrilling finish to the contest, however, Recession Proof (h141) took his record over hurdles to three from four in little under four months and his form up a notch in the process as he defeated Bothy (h140) a short head. He has been rated as value for closer to a length victory after almost throwing the race away by wavering on the run-in, having moved alongside going best of the first three by some way.

The runner-up matched the form of his second to Menorah in the Greatwood from a 9 lb higher mark, having also raced to the fore throughout, whilst the front-running Notus de La Tour (143) improved a little on the form of last season's Fred Winter second as he finished one and a quarter lengths back in third.

Soldatino (h152p) remains a potentially high-class hurdler for all he's come up short in two handicaps since finally making it back, inconvenienced here by a baulk turning in and early mistakes that saw him drop towards the rear. Favourite Walkon (h153) also met some trouble in running but moreover left the impression that his hard-fought second at Ascot the previous month had left its mark.

Noland (c150+) had proved most disappointing in a handicap at Cheltenham on Cotswold Chase day but, re-equipped with a tongue strap, returned to a level of form much more in keeping with his high-class best when landing the Aon Chase. He was favoured by the weights and had the run of things to an extent, however, and is likely to have his work cut out if heading next to the Ryanair at the Festival.

His stable-companion What A Friend (c160) was conceding 10 lb to both him and the third and ran right up to his best in going down by a head. Yet, he again tended to race lazily and looked most awkward under pressure. He holds entries in the Gold Cup and the Grand National, though a repeat victory in the Bowl at Aintree might be a more achievable target. Fair Along (c148) also ran right up to the pick of his form over fences on his first outing in this sphere since 2007/8. His jumping was hesitant at times though he typically stuck on gamely in the straight.

The Game Spirit Chase half an hour later lacked a serious Champion Chase contender for once and it's probably best to take a cautious view of the form, with few giving their running and the proximity of Oiseau de Nuit in third supporting such a judgement. However, French Opera (c161) put his disappointing reappearance behind him to return to his best with a six-length beating of a slightly below-par Tchico Polos (c156). He may well go up in the weights for this, which would make his task harder if tackling the Grand Annual, whilst he's still got something to find with the principles in the Champion Chase.

French Opera's trainer Nicky Henderson was also in big race-winning form the following day courtesy of Riverside Theatre (c167) in the Ascot Chase. The seven-year-old matched the form of his King George second and confirmed himself a top-class chaser with an authoritative success, travelling well for most of the way and quickening on two out to beat a back-to-form Gauvain (c158) by ten lengths. He was short of experience when fifth in the Arkle on his only previous visit to Cheltenham and will hold strong claims if returning there for the Ryanair next month.

The runner-up returned to something like the level of form that had seen him win a valuable minor event at Cheltenham in November, up with the pace for much of the way and beating the remainder convincingly. Big Fella Thanks (c151) has the Grand National as his longer-term target and shaped well with that in mind in finishing fourth, having not been not knocked about by Dominic Elsworth after a bad mistake three out. Tartak (c160) was seeking a hat-trick following wins in the Peterborough Chase and a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham, but he was let down by his jumping, too.

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The Cheltenham Festival build-up is well and truly in full swing now, with Saturday's Racing Post Chase at Kempton a mouth-watering precursor of things to come. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field.

Leading trainer Philip Hobbs has won the Grade 3 handicap three times since 1999, most recently with Farmer Jack in 2005, and he has young pretenders Quinz and Mostly Bob entered in the three-mile contest this time, with both looking to hold strong form claims.

The first-named is a very solid jumper, but making the running told last time ultimately told when third behind Time For Rupert. As a result, he is much better judged on his previous run when comfortably dispatching the well-treated Far More Serious in an Ascot handicap. Even though you have to go back to 2000 to find the last novice to succeed (Gloria Victis), Quinz is well worth considering on Saturday, very much the type to win at graded level.

Fairly useful hurdler Mostly Bob has translated his ability to fences and confirmed his fall first time out was unlucky with his two improved performances, most notably when winning with an assured round of jumping at Doncaster last time. It will be intriguing to see if Richard Johnson retains his partnership with either of the two Hobbs horses, as he has won the race four times since the turn of the century.

Just like in the Grand National Trial last week, weight hasn't seemed a burden to runners in the Racing Post Chase, with the aforementioned Farmer Jack, Marlborough and Gungadu all carrying top weight to victory in recent years. The horse that carries the baton this year is Nacarat.

The winner in 2009 and runner-up last year, Nacarat seems as good as ever this season and is actually clear Timeform top rated for this race. Having undergone a breathing operation since his King George fourth, it's likely that the front-running tactics that have stood him in such good stead in the race previously will be employed again, and there's no reason why he won't go very close once more, especially if allowed to dictate his own pace.

Next best in on figures is the consistent Fistral Beach, who was fancied for last year's race before unseating at the second. A horse whose ability should have won him more races than it has, he looked better than ever when successful on his return at Wincanton and will be a big danger if backing that effort up. Any further rain will enhance his chances more, and Paul Nicholls has recently announced that Tony McCoy will take the ride.

Tatenen, like former stablemate Fistral Beach, was another horse to produce a career-best last time, when winning an Ascot handicap chase by 16 lengths, yet it appeared that the strong pace suited him more than his rivals and his overall profile tempers enthusiasm with regards to him following up.

Another with an inconsistent profile is last year's winner, Razor Royale, who, in trying to retain his crown, is attempting a feat that hasn't been achieved since Docklands Express in the early nineties. After two disappointing runs so far this season, it's impossible to know how much ability Razor Royale retains. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has also entered the unreliable Beat The Boys, and Crescent Island, who returned with a bang last time at Wetherby but must avoid the dreaded 'bounce'.

Hey Big Spender is a far better jumper than his recent form figures suggest and confirmed that last time when posting a career-best effort with a win at Warwick. If he jumps like he did last time, he's another who could go close.

Sagalyrique, another fluent jumper who usually finds plenty, seems to have enjoyed the change of scenery since leaving Alan King for Donald McCain, and comes into this on the back of two handicap chase victories. He needs to step up a gear but the fact that those last two efforts were the highest-rated performances of his life bode well.

Of the market principals, the one who actually has to improve most is Bakbenscher, who missed the end of last season through injury, but has made amends so far this year. However, the suspicion remains that, due to his suspect jumping, big-field handicaps may not suit him and it would be a surprise if he were not to find a few too good in a race of this nature.

Finally, Mount Oscar will be the oldest horse in the field if lining up, and veterans can win it, highlighted by Marlborough's triumph in 2004 and Desert Orchid's victory as a sprightly eleven-year-old in 1990, but his lethargic performance under his regular jockey last time doesn't suggest he's in great form.

Recommendation

Back Quinz @ 8.4 in the Racing Post Chase



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Timeform look back at the weekend's racing at Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and Gowran Park.


The Betfair Ascot Chase hasn't always proved the best contested of Grade 1 events, though this year's renewal was well up to standard, and in beating Gauvain by 10 lengths Riverside Theatre produced a performance surpassed in the recent history of the race only by 2008 winner Kauto Star. Riverside Theatre stands among the leading form contenders for the Ryanair at the Festival, and is now the second favourite at 7.2, though unlike the favourite Poquelin (5.2) Riverside Theatre needs to prove his effectiveness on the track having jumped less than fluently in last season's Arkle.

Gauvain beat the rest convincingly and will presumably also have the Ryanair on his agenda. He will be no forlorn hope for a place there judged on his Ascot effort, with his good course record a positive in that respect. So far as those that finished further behind are concerned, Big Fella Thanks ran a somewhat eye-catching race with a view to the Grand National, though that impression is mitigated to an extent by his apparent failure to stay the two previous times he has run at Aintree. The race was marred by the fatal injuries suffered by Pride of Dulcote in a fall at the eighth fence.

The Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot was billed as a straight shootout between Master of The Hall and The Minack, representing Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls respectively, and it may well have developed that way but for a bad mistake by The Minack at the fourteenth. That left the door open for Master of The Hall to register a smooth success and he is clearly a smart chaser in the making. That said, his form as things stand is some way short of what the principals can offer for his next target, the RSA Chase, and he is a 19.0 shot for that race at the time of writing.

Master of The Hall wasn't the only Nicky Henderson horse with Festival pretensions seen out at Ascot on Saturday, as Sprinter Sacre made it two from three over hurdles with victory in the two-mile novice on the card. Sprinter Sacre didn't need to improve to land short odds in a falsely run race, but clearly still has a good deal of potential and must rate as a leading contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, for which he is the 10.0 third favourite behind Cue Card and his stablemate Spirit Son.

Another performance of note at Ascot came courtesy of Sonofvic and Tornado Bob, who fought out the finish to the two-and-a-half-mile novice hurdle, with the former just prevailing. Both are good prospects, and though Sonofvic doesn't have a Festival entry, Tornado Bob is no forlorn hope for either the Spa or the Baring Bingham, the big prices currently available about him for either of those races not doing justice to his chance on form.

Up at Haydock, the day's feature race was the three-and-a-half-mile Grand National Trial which was won for the second year running by Silver By Nature. Silver By Nature produced a career-best effort to defy a mark 6 lb higher than for last season's success, and looks a leading contender for the Grand National itself. He is a 19.0 shot for that race at present and his chance will only be enhanced if conditions at Aintree come up testing.

Perhaps the most interesting race at Haydock was the three-mile Prestige Novices' Hurdle which was won by Howard Johnson's Back In Focus, who ran to a level of form you rarely see from a hurdling debutant to lower the colours of Court In Motion. Back In Focus takes over from that rival as favourite for the Albert Bartlett (Spa) Novices' Hurdle at the Festival, and looks a tremendous staying prospect. Court In Motion shaped as if he was just stretched by conditions, but wasn't too far below form in the end, and remains a contender for the Festival.

The staying hurdlers were also in action at Haydock in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle, in which Cross Kennon maintained his progressive profile, outstaying Bensalem to record a six-length success. Cross Kennon will presumably have a crack at the World Hurdle next before going novice chasing next season. Bensalem will reportedly revert to fences now for the Festival Handicap Chase on the Wednesday of Cheltenham, for which he is the 8.0 favourite.

The other race of note at Haydock was the Victor Ludorum juvenile hurdle in which Houblon des Obeaux battled back to beat Third Intention. The winner's Triumph Hurdle bid reportedly depends on whether conditions are sufficiently testing at Cheltenham, though the runner-up arguably shaped best anyway, and probably has more to offer when getting a well-run race. At 22.0, Third Intention is a lively outsider for the Triumph.

The third of Saturday's jumps cards in Britain took place at Wincanton, where the highlight was the Kingwell Hurdle. Mille Chief won the race and is now on track for the Champion Hurdle, though he was arguably fortunate to do so after the runner-up Celestial Halo hit the last, and will head to the Festival with only outside claims for the Champion.

Mille Chief's stablemate Smad Place may prove a stronger contender to give Alan King a winner over timber at the Festival after he got back to winning ways in the two-mile juvenile hurdle at Wincanton. He is a 12.5 shot for the Triumph Hurdle, and looks open to further improvement. The runner-up Jump City does not have a Triumph entry, but he confirmed himself a good prospect on his hurdling debut in pulling a long way clear of the third with Smad Place.

There were meetings in Ireland on Saturday and Sunday and the most interesting horse seen out there was probably Dunguib, who made a winning return to action in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park on Saturday. Dunguib told us little new about him in landing the odds in a three-runner race, but still shortened up for the Champion Hurdle and is now a 15.5 shot for that race. Strictly judged on form, there are plenty of likely runners in the Champion that have achieved more than Dunguib to date.



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There was an across-the-card double for the yard on Saturday, but there was also a tragic loss at Ascot.


What had looked a competitive opening novice hurdle at Ascot did, indeed, see the rating principals fill the first four places, with Sonofvic maintaining his unbeaten record with a useful performance to see off another improver in Tornado Bob, the pair finishing well clear in a good time. Sonofvic travelled smoothly before responding well after the last, and although he doesn't hold any Cheltenham entries, he certainly looks Festival class, if more as a novice chaser further down the line.

The Minack, who lined up for the Reynoldstown, lost all realistic chance with a bad mistake at the fourteenth fence. Although he did recover to make ground after three out, the effort had taken its toll and it was for that reason, rather than a lack of stamina, that he lost out on second to Billie Magern near the line. Whilst this performance must only be seen as a blip, as he is usually a reliable jumper, he would still have to show a fair bit more if lining up in either the RSA or Golden Miller at Cheltenham.

In Ascot's listed handicap chase, Breedsbreeze proved disappointing, failing to travel with his usual fluency before fading into a remote seventh of the eight runners. He became very tired three out, suggesting that a testing three miles in rain-softened ground stretches his stamina, yet it will remain to be seen whether anything else comes to light as he just never seemed like he was on top of his game.

Over at Wincanton, handicap hurdle favourite Carlicue made a mistake at the eighth but that cannot be the sole the reason for him dropping out so tamely and, like Breedsbreeze, it remains to be seen whether any other factors come to light after this performance. On his previous form he seemed likely to prove up to defying the sort of mark he raced off , but the fact the tongue strap has been employed so early on in his career is slightly off-putting.

Whilst Riverside Theatre was impressive in the Betfair Ascot Chase, the race was marred by the fatal injury suffered by Gold Cup contender Pride of Dulcote when coming down at the eighth.

There was more disappointment for Nicholls in the next, too, as Like Minded, tongue tied for the first time, made a promising move three out only to find his effort petering out in the straight. Still lightly raced, however, there may be better to come when he tackles further and fences.

Nicholls saddled two in Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle, which looked a relevant Champion Hurdle trial beforehand, but it will have left many scratching their heads.

Celestial Halo looked more like his old self in going down by a nose to Mille Chief, showing there's still races to be won with him, and whilst the suspicion that he needs further might still hold true (came off the bridle well before the straight) he battled all the way and could have beaten Mille Chief but for making a mess of the last. His chasing career, and his World Hurdle entry, will surely fall by the wayside for the time being and, as he's not in the Champion, he will likely have to wait until April for his chance to right the wrongs of last year's Aintree Hurdle.

Stablemate Silviniaco Conti's Champion Hurdle chances now look slim after failing to land a blow, for all that he was conceding weight all round. Even allowing for the fact he'd been off two months and stays further, he just never seemed like getting involved, and for now there is a question mark over him.

The useful-looking Polisky made his British debut in the novice hurdle at Ascot after finishing second in a listed race for newcomers on his only French start for Guy Cherel. He was always going to be up against it, tackling the potentially top-class Sprinter Sacre, yet put up a sterling performance in defeat, chasing the winner from three out and then not knocked about when his chance had gone in the straight. Like Sonofvic, a lack of a Cheltenham entry doesn't detract from his profile, and he is presumably seen more as a potential novice chaser for next term anyway.

Compatriot Aerial was Timeform top-rated ahead of his British debut in a handicap chase at Wincanton and was most impressive, winning with loads to spare. His only error came two out but he fairly cruised home after that and, as a young chaser on the up, must be considered should he line up at Prestbury Park.

Finally, another British debutant in Jump City was facing an impossible task trying to give weight to the year-younger Smad Place in the last at Wincanton, but he made the Triumph Hurdle fancy work harder than his odds would have implied, coming clear of the remainder. A former Flat winner, Jump City achieved a high figure for a hurdling debutant and rates as a smart prospect, sure to win good races.



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Unbeaten mare Black Caviar stretched her winning run to nine races in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday and Timeform have awarded her a rating of 131+ for that performance, which sees her ranked the leading sprinter in the world.


Timeform's Australian handicapper Gary Crispe commented "There is little doubt that Black Caviar ran to a lofty figure of 131+ in the Lightning Stakes but even more scary is the prospect that she has more to give.

"That will not be good news for her rivals when she lines up in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap down the straight 1200m at Flemington on March 12. Even though the Newmarket Handicap will be run under handicap conditions, it seems unlikely any weight turnaround will be big enough to halt her winning run.

"And that is significant for Black Caviar and for Australia's racing historians. On Saturday she joined Grand Flaneur, the 1880 Melbourne Cup winner as one of only five horses in Australia's racing history to have ever commenced their careers with an unbeaten run of nine races. The other three are Mollison, Rancher and Eye Liner. Grand Flaneur was retired unbeaten after nine wins. So Black Caviar will be chasing a piece of racing history in the Newmarket Handicap.

"In terms of historical significance, Black Caviar with a 131 Timeform rating now sits ahead of previous 'household' names such as Takeover Target 128, Starspangledbanner 128, Scenic Blast 128, and Miss Andretti 127.

"She also now resides clearly at the top of the female Timeform ratings list for Australia and New Zealand in the last 40 years as the highest rated filly or mare."

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There is Grade 1 action at Ascot on Saturday in the shape of the 21-furlong Betfair Ascot Chase. The race has been won in recent years by some of the best chasers around, the three most recent winners being Monet's Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Kauto Star. A field of seven will contest this year's renewal, with the standard on form set by King George runner-up Riverside Theatre. His most significant challenger according to the market is Paul Nicholls' upwardly mobile chaser Pride of Dulcote, though the Timeform ratings point to Tartak, Deep Purple and Gauvain having achived more to date, admittedly none of that trio having anything like Pride of Dulcote's potential.

The other Graded action on the card at Ascot is the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase over three miles. The ratings suggest that three of the four runners, namely Billie Magern, Master of The Hall and The Minack, are closely matched on form, though it is the last two named that have the greater potential, and the race could well develop into a straight shootout between them.

There are also a couple of £40,000 handicaps set to take place at Ascot. The chasers go in the three-mile Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Chase, in which the most interesting runner is arguably the French raider Royal Tune, who has already made a winning visit to these shores this season. Later on, the hurdlers go in the two-and-a-half-mile Betfair Mobile Handicap Hurdle. Ascot regular Lough Derg runs again after his very good second in the Holloway's over course and distance last month, though there are plenty of other interesting ones in the field, not least the Paul Nicholls-trained Like Minded.

Haydock also plays host to a really good National Hunt card on Saturday. The most valuable event on the card there is the three-and-a-half-mile Grand National Trial, which promises to be a thoroughly gruelling test. Last year's winner Silver By Nature carries top weight on this occasion, though has sound claims of doubling up from just a 6 lb higher mark. Dangers may include Mobaasher and the up-and-coming duo King Fontaine and Major Malarkey.

The current favourite for the Spa Novices' Hurdle at the Festival, Court In Motion also has his final tune up before Cheltenham at Haydock in the three-mile Albert Bartlett (Prestige) Novices' Hurdle. He will face seven others and ought to take all the beating. Court In Motion takes his chance in the novice race rather than the Rendlesham Hurdle, which follows over the same course and distance. The most interesting runner in the Rendlesham is Bensalem, who shaped well returning from a length absence when behind Grands Crus at Cheltenham last time.

Further Cheltenham clues will almost certainly be offer at Wincanton, which stages the Kingwell Hurdle. This year's renewal is well up to scratch as a competitive race in its own right as well as a potentially informative Champion Hurdle trial. Mille Chief is the shortest of the five Kingwell runners in the ante-post market for the Champion Hurdle, though he faces no easy task at Wincanton against Overturn, Silviniaco Conti, Celestial Halo and Ronaldo des Mottes.
Saturday's other two meetings in Britain take places over jumps at Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Lingfield, while there is also good NH action at Gowran Park in Ireland, where Dunguib returns to the fray in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle.

On Sunday there is all-weather racing at Kempton, while both Market Rasen and Sedgefield stage National Hunt fixtures. The day's best jumping takes place at Naas where there are three Grade 2s on the card. Willie Mullins has some interesting runners there, not least Golden Silver and the promising novice hurdler Day of A Lifetime.

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Rarely a Carnival meeting goes by without a Mike de Kock-trained winner, yesterday very much an exception, so the South African will be keen to get back on the board today and Absolute Heretic looks to hold sound claims in the 15:50. He very much caught the eye on his reappearance when set loads to do by Jamie Spencer before flying home to finish seventh behind Lolamar, sure to have gone much closer all things being equal. He doesn't boast quite the same profile of most of his stablemates, relatively unproven in pattern company, but at the same time he is still fairly unexposed and the way he was finishing last time gives every hope of him staying the extra three furlongs here.

Godolphin have had several imports from Australia over the last year or so and it's fair to say they have underwhelmed, but hopefully Caymans can rectify that to a degree in the 16:30 and his profile is certainly different to those that have disappointed. He was given plenty of time to acclimatise, unraced at the Carnival last year and only making it to the track once in Britain in 2010, his effort in heavy ground minor event at Nottingham easily excused (was also his first start for 19 months). He is clearly a smart performer on his day, finishing in the frame in three Grade 2 events in Australia in 2009, and all that ability looked to remain intact judged by the way he tanked through his reappearance before eventually finishing fourth behind Presvis. That was over 9f, he even briefly looked the winner when sent on in the straight, but most of his best form down under came over shorter so this drop to 1m looks to be in his favour. This is clearly a weaker race back in handicap company and it will be disappointing if he can't give Frankie Dettori yet another winner.

I make no apologies for including Mac Love (17:05) again even though he finished well held last week, as everything about that run confirmed my thoughts beforehand, that he is indeed back in much better form and hopefully he will avoid all the trouble that has plagued his last two outings. He only finished tenth behind Raihana, but that form was given a big boost yesterday with Raihana, Le Drakkar and Haatheq all running really well again and it wasn't beyond the realms of possibility that Mac Love would have finished in and amongst that trio had he not been hampered on more than one occasion. There is a much smaller field today which should reduce the risk of the same thing happening again and more importantly, the handicapper has dropped Mac Love 3 lb for that which qualifies him for this lesser event. This is his big chance to bring home some prize money.

Recommendations:
Back Absolute Heretic in the 15:50 Meydan
Back Caymans in the 16:30 Meydan
Back Mac Love in the 17:05 Meydan

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