TimeformBlog

Rarely a Carnival meeting goes by without a Mike de Kock-trained winner, yesterday very much an exception, so the South African will be keen to get back on the board today and Absolute Heretic looks to hold sound claims in the 15:50. He very much caught the eye on his reappearance when set loads to do by Jamie Spencer before flying home to finish seventh behind Lolamar, sure to have gone much closer all things being equal. He doesn't boast quite the same profile of most of his stablemates, relatively unproven in pattern company, but at the same time he is still fairly unexposed and the way he was finishing last time gives every hope of him staying the extra three furlongs here.

Godolphin have had several imports from Australia over the last year or so and it's fair to say they have underwhelmed, but hopefully Caymans can rectify that to a degree in the 16:30 and his profile is certainly different to those that have disappointed. He was given plenty of time to acclimatise, unraced at the Carnival last year and only making it to the track once in Britain in 2010, his effort in heavy ground minor event at Nottingham easily excused (was also his first start for 19 months). He is clearly a smart performer on his day, finishing in the frame in three Grade 2 events in Australia in 2009, and all that ability looked to remain intact judged by the way he tanked through his reappearance before eventually finishing fourth behind Presvis. That was over 9f, he even briefly looked the winner when sent on in the straight, but most of his best form down under came over shorter so this drop to 1m looks to be in his favour. This is clearly a weaker race back in handicap company and it will be disappointing if he can't give Frankie Dettori yet another winner.

I make no apologies for including Mac Love (17:05) again even though he finished well held last week, as everything about that run confirmed my thoughts beforehand, that he is indeed back in much better form and hopefully he will avoid all the trouble that has plagued his last two outings. He only finished tenth behind Raihana, but that form was given a big boost yesterday with Raihana, Le Drakkar and Haatheq all running really well again and it wasn't beyond the realms of possibility that Mac Love would have finished in and amongst that trio had he not been hampered on more than one occasion. There is a much smaller field today which should reduce the risk of the same thing happening again and more importantly, the handicapper has dropped Mac Love 3 lb for that which qualifies him for this lesser event. This is his big chance to bring home some prize money.

Recommendations:
Back Absolute Heretic in the 15:50 Meydan
Back Caymans in the 16:30 Meydan
Back Mac Love in the 17:05 Meydan

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