TimeformBlog

B Fifty Two won twice in the spring and showed further improvement when sixth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot last time. This isn't much easier, though.

Bling King got off the mark over this trip at Brighton in May. He ran well next time, but seemingly had his limitations exposed in the Chesham at Royal Ascot on his latest start and this is tougher still.

Caspar Netscher got off to an ideal start when landing a gamble at Beverley on his debut. He has shown better form since, sticking to his task when third in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot and ought to go well again.

Effervescent found plenty when off the mark in a six-furlong maiden at Haydock in May and was a good second next time, but was laboured in the Coventry on his latest start and needs to bounce back.

Factory Time has won both his starts to date and was barely extended when brushing aside Bling King at Chepstow last month. It would be a surprise if he isn't capable of better still and he is very much respected again.

Jack Who's He rallied to some purpose when gaining a second win at Newmarket in April. He struggled to make an impact in stronger company at up to six furlongs since, and a similar scenario probably awaits.

North Star Boy knuckled down well to get off the mark at Ascot in May. He has been far from discredited in Group races the last twice and can't be discounted back at an easier level.

Saigon made an excellent start when reeling in a well-backed rival on debut at Yarmouth earlier this month and is a useful prospect who shouldn't be taken lightly.

Telwaaw was the smooth winner of a maiden at Doncaster last month and improved again when sixth in the Chesham at Royal Ascot last time, shaping as if likely to be more at home back over this trip.

Wise Venture's debut win here worked out well and he had little trouble following up at Yarmouth last month. He is well worth his place in this stronger race and would be foolish to underestimate.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Saigon
2. Factory Time
3. Wise Venture

Timeform View: A good renewal of this listed prize. Caspar Netscher has achieved the most in form terms, but the unbeaten Saigon, Factory Time and Wise Venture all possibly boast more potential.

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Mungo Park is a member of this year's Timeform Horses to Follow, and there were definite concerns that he would be one of those in the minority that sink without trace after not being seen out until last week. In the event, those fears were allayed with a promising third in a 10-furlong maiden at Warwick and Mungo Park looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to open his account at Hamilton (15:05). Mungo Park is a big, unfurnished colt who was always likely to make up into a middle-distance three-year-old, so it's encouraging that he shaped with such definite promise in two maidens in 2010. His reappearance effort at Warwick represented a big step forward on that form and there's good reason to think he'll prove capable of further progress, considerably more so than today's main form rival Sunday Bess.

A switch from John Best to William Haggas has already borne fruit once this week in the shape of Agent Archie, who won first time for his new yard at Yarmouth on Tuesday, and today looks a good opportunity for Elspeth's Boy to repeat the trick at Epsom (20:20). He looked a good prospect when making a winning debut at Lingfield in 2009, so much so that he ran in the 2000 Guineas on his next start. That proved too much, but Elspeth's Boy got back on track at a more realistic level later in the year when catching the eye in a couple of handicaps on the polytrack. He does need to prove he can be as effective on turf, but figures on a realistic mark tonight even without accounting for any improvement his new yard might have unlocked.

Like Mungo Park, Silvery Moon is a physically imposing horse who appeals as very much the type to do better with time and he could well reward his connections' patient approach at Doncaster (20:40). Silvery Moon had four goes in maidens at seven furlongs and a mile as a three-year-old in 2010, improving with each start and all the while shaping as if there was still more to offer. On the face of things, he took the first backwards step of his career when fifth in a handicap at Beverley on his reappearance in May, but he shaped a good deal better than the bare result that day, making late inroads from a poor position under mainly a hand ride. Two months on and off the same mark, he is worth backing to deliver on that long-promised potential.

Recommendations
Back Mungo Park @ 2.78 15:05 Hamilton
Back Elspeth's Boy @ 4.1 20:20 Epsom
Back Silvery Moon @ 9.2 20:40 Doncaster

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14:30 - Three-year-old High Samanais tackling the two miles for the first time on his handicap debut, but the way he stayed on over a mile and a half last time suggests that the trip should be well within his compass. Joining High Samana on the shortlist is last year's winner Ambrose Princess, who has a fine course and distance record (she also won on her only other start at the track) and is solid back-up should High Samana fail to fire.

15:00 - Whitby Jethas been in good order this season, finishing placed on all four starts, including winning at Newcastle on fast ground. The race he contests today will be his first try over a mile and quarter, but the manner of his easy win at Newcastle in May suggested he would have no trouble with the trip increase. Spade found the drop to a mile against her last time and she gets another chance to prove ten furlongs is right up her street (given a lot to do over the trip on her penultimate start) and has every chance of reaching the placings, too.

15:30 - No messing in the maiden, we're banking on Godolphin's Burj Hatta. He didn't appreciate the soft ground when disappointing last time, but the form of his second at Yarmouth two starts back is strong (the winner going on to score impressively at the July Meeting last week) and this represents an ideal opportunity to get off the mark before tackling handicaps.

16:00 - Musically ran into some useful prospects at Newbury on her debut and the third has won subsequently. She wasn't given a hard time once her chance had gone that day and, consequently, is sure to have learnt plenty. If showing the improvement we expect, she should be thereabouts. Should things not work out as anticipated, we'll also take Fire and Sparks, a filly who did improve for her debut when finishing fifth at Kempton last time. Fire and Sparks looks sure to continue to progress and can reverse recent form with White Spirit.

16:30 - A classified stakes with many of the runners trying to find their first solid form this season isn't ideal, but with a little nouse we should be able navigate it. Emerald Wildernesswas travelling well before meeting trouble in running in a valuable handicap at Sandown last time and, as that was his first run for 16 months, we can expect a bold show in this weaker event today. Wilfred Picklesmay not be the classiest runner in the field (in fact he's ninth of 11 on Timeform ratings), but he has never been out of the frame in his five starts over course and distance, making him strong back-up material.

17:00 - Even though there are only seven runners, Redvers is a confident selection after his Bath success last week. Redvers overcame trouble in running that day, showing a willing attitude to get up close home and with the booking of star apprentice Harry Bentley taking the eye, it would be a surprise should he not go very close.

Selections - 16 lines
14:00- 1, 8
14:30 - 1, 3
15:00 - 4
16:00 - 5, 7
16:30 - 3, 10
17:00 - 1

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William Haggas has his string in top form and can make another successful northern raid with Beechcraft Baron (16.50) in the last at Catterick. We've almost certainly yet to see the best of Beechcraft Baron after just four runs and it seems significant that he was sent off favourite on his handicap debut at Windsor last month. He looked short of pace on that occasion, so the step up to seven furlongs should suit. Back in a maiden today, and a weak-looking one at that, Beechcraft Baron is well worth another chance.

The upwardly-mobile Redvers (17.00) can notch up another success at Lingfield. Trained by Ralph Beckett, Redvers took a big step forward when winning for the second time in three starts at Bath last week, pouncing late having had to wait for a gap to come. He comes up against a field of mostly exposed-looking rivals today, and even under a penalty needs backing at a shade of odds on.

The pick of the action comes this evening at Sandown where Galiando (19.55) is fancied to make it two from two for Jeremy Noseda. He scored a shade cosily in a maiden at Goodwood last month, staying on strongly to pick off two rivals rated in the 80s, and seems sure to make his presence felt even though he's bred to stay further than a mile.

Recommendations
Back Beechcraft Baron @ 3.5 Catterick 16.50
Back Redvers @ 1.92 Lingfield 17.00
Back Galiando @ 3.35 Sandown 19.55

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Able Master was a smart six- and seven-furlong performer for Bryan Smart in 2009 but has been in decline since and was well beaten in a handicap at Doncaster on his reappearance last month.

Cloudy Start progressed well at three years for Henry Cecil, winning twice at up to a mile. He hasn't made much impact in handicaps more recently, but this represents a drop in class and it's dangerous to write him off.

Emerald Wilderness is a free-going sort who is effective on a range of surfaces. He was far from disgraced when denied a clear run in a good handicap on his return and has a good chance granted better luck in what looks an easier race.

Ezdeyaad improved to land four handicaps over seven furlongs and a mile last year when trained by Alan Swinbank. He took advantage of a falling mark when winning at Folkestone in May, but was disappointing last time and needs to bounce back.

Hurricane Spirit ended a losing run when bagging a handicap over a mile at Kempton in September 2009. He has had only a handful of starts since and offered little encouragement on his comeback here last month.

Layline was in fine form on polytrack earlier in the year, winning over a mile and a quarter here in February. He has been well below his best on turf the last twice, but the return to this surface may help.

Suited And Booted made good progress in 2010, winning a maiden at Windsor prior to picking up handicaps over seven furlongs and a mile at Newmarket. He hasn't been anywhere near his best in four starts this time round and has left Richard Hannon since last seen.

Uphold returned to his best when winning a mile-and-a-half handicap at Salisbury in June on his first start for this yard. He folded tamely after again making the running last time and is now back down to a trip he won over last year.

Vitznau is a useful performer on his day, but hasn't looked quite the force of old in four starts for his new yard in 2010 (formerly with Richard Hannon). He will at least find this trip more suitable than the six furlongs he tackled last time.

Wilfred Pickles won for the second time in three starts when holding on grimly over a mile here on the all-weather in March. His latest run on turf here was too bad to be true, but he has plenty to find at the weights.

Cloud Illusions improved when winning a handicap over a mile at Newmarket on her reappearance. She was out of her depth in a listed race last time and this isn't as tough, but others hold stronger claims on form.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Emerald Wilderness
2. Cloudy Start
3. Layline

Timeform View: With the likelihood of a strong pace this could go the way of Emerald Wilderness, who showed enough on his reappearance at Sandown to think he retains his ability. Cloudy Start can also play a part if returning to anything like his best form, while Layline may bounce back returned to the all-weather.

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13:30 - Brave Battle will never have a better chance to show his form at the minimum distance given the stiff nature of this track, but the drop in trip is a still a slight concern and he's taken on in favour of both Greek Secret and King of Swords, the former not long with this yard and entitled to come on for his return, and the latter seemingly coming to the boil and suited by a testing 5f.

14:00 - Angel of Hope can probably reverse Hamilton form with the more exposed First Fast Now, which should be enough to see him placed, and the second vote goes to Mantuana, who's a bigger price than might have been expected this morning for all she has to prove herself as effective on turf as fibresand.

14:30 - No heroics here. Abidhabidubai has more ability than Janet's Pearl for win purposes, but the most sensible Placepot strategy given the lack of opposition is to select both in the strong likelihood that lines will be doubled for leg four.

15:00 - There's a firm chance this will be strongly-run, with Old English, I Confess and West End Lad all confirmed pace-setters, which should play into the hands of come-from-behind horse Ours. It's rarely pretty with Ours, however, and the solid insurance is undoubtedly recent course winner Shadowtime.

15:30 - This isn't a 'win' tipping piece, but it's hard to resist putting forward front-running three-year-old Mojolika as a very solid option in a race featuring four hold-up horses with many more miles on the clock, most appealing of whom for the saver line is hat-trick seeking John Forbes.

16:00 - Plenty of these don't appeal at all, though in another race that should be run at a sound pace it may pay to side with a couple of hold-up types, pick of whom look to be Striker Torres and Violent Velocity, who both have course-and-distance wins to their name in 2011. Overlooking Corsicanrun isn't easy, however, but line saving is the order of the day after a string of multiple-selection legs.

Selections: 64 lines
13:30 - 3, 7
14:00 - 5, 9
14:30 - 2, 4
15:00 - 2, 3
15:30 - 1, 5
16:00 - 3, 4

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Agent Archie completed a three-timer at up to a mile and quarter for John Best earlier in his career. He has struggled in a couple of races at St Moritz when last seen in February, but has since been gelded and joined the in-form William Haggas.

Destiny Blue hasn't always looked straightforward but goes well here, scoring for the second time over a mile in May. He didn't fare so well in a better race at Carlisle next time and this isn't any easier.

Lyric Poet was much improved with a tongue tied fitted in 2010, winning twice at up to a mile and proving consistent. There has to be a chance he'll need his first start since December.

England Rules built on an encouraging debut when winning a maiden at Windsor in May. He may not have been suited by softer ground when down the field on his handicap debut last time (also badly hampered) and is worth another chance.

Negotiation made all in a course-and-distance handicap last summer only to be disqualified. He has run well the last twice and his turn might not be far away, with the return to this trip likely to suit.

Rutland Bay won a seven-furlong maiden at Wolverhampton in November. He put in a couple of improved efforts up in trip in handicaps this year before possibly finding soft ground against him last time and remains unexposed.

Quiz Mistress won a maiden over the extended nine furlongs at Wolverhampton in November. She lost all chance at the start on her reappearance, but ran well despite wandering back on polytrack last time. She drops back in trip here and remains with potential.

Top Diktat remains with potential after a series of promising efforts in all-weather maidens. The step up in trip will suit on his handicap/turf debut and he should make his presence felt.

Falmouth Bay made a fine start when landing a seven-furlong maiden at Wolverhampton in January. It hasn't been plain sailing in handicaps since, but there was much more promise in his run at Beverley last time and he has dropped to a tempting mark.

Ferruccio is a progressive maiden who was only bean narrowly at Leicester last time. The step up in trip will suit and he's sure to go one better at some stage.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Top Diktat
2.    Falmouth Bay
3.    England Rules

Timeform View: Plenty of unexposed types to consider, with Top Diktat taken to make a successful switch to handicaps and turf. Falmouth Bay and Ferruccio look big dangers, while the lightly-raced England Rules and Rutland Boy possibly both found softer ground against them last time and could bounce back.

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18:20 - Linda Stubbs' runner is bound to get to the front in the opening seller and he appeals as the only solid horse in the race, so he's worth banking on.

18:50 - Balti's Sister made a positive start but has produced a tame effort since, so she's best opposed for placepot purposes. Fast On and Invincible Dream are both open to further improvement after just two runs and it's hard to see both of them being out of the three.

19:20 - The third race simply looks like a match between Final Liberation and Susan Stroman, and the former had a particularly hard race at Kempton last time, so I'm going to take a chance and bank on Ed Dunlop's filly, whose pedigree suggests this longer trip will be right up her street.

19:50 - The market support this morning for Thundering Home is significant given that he's starting out for a new yard, so he's the obvious first selection and is accompanied by Revolutionary, the only three-year-old in the race.

20:20 - The penultimate leg is trappy, but the race Al Burkaan won at Catterick last time isn't worth much, so he's worth opposing as a short-priced favourite. Tamasou, who's got better with the run for this stable, is the obvious one to oppose him with, and Madonna Dell'orto goes in as a bit of insurance, too.

20:50 - Finally, another banker. Arabian Heights did very well to finish second at Lingfield last week bearing in mind the test was inadequate and, now stepped up to a trip more conducive to his pedigree, he can get off the mark.

Selections: 8 lines
18:20 - 2
18:50 - 1, 3
19:20 - 3
19:50 - 1, 9
20:20 - 2, 4
20:50 - 2

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First up today is Izzy The Ozzy (16:30) who is expected to win on her handicap debut at Ayr this afternoon. The David Barron-trained filly stepped up markedly on her debut when running away with a maiden at Ripon last time. It would be fair to say that it was not the strongest event run this year, but Izzy The Ozzy could hardly have scored any more easily and there promises to be much more improvement to come now that she is sent handicapping.

Next up is Hughie Morrison-trained Ice Nelly (16:50) who has shaped as if capable of better on all her starts to date. Ice Nelly was notably strong in the betting when third in an apprentice event over a mile at Salisbury last time, and again finished with plenty more to give. Now upped in trip and with the assistance of a fully-fledged jockey, she seemingly has a lot in her favour and should go very close this afternoon.

Last but by no means least is Totheendoftheearth (20:10). The Sylvester Kirk-trained filly faces stiff opposition in the form of Walter Swinburn's Hurricane Lady who is seeking a hat-trick this evening. However, Totheendoftheearth will be suited by a return to a mile and appeals as a type to do better now handicapping from a fair opening mark. Add to the fact that Ryan Moore takes the ride and she looks more than capable of winning this evening.


Recommendations
Back Izzy The Ozzy @ 2.48 in the 16:30 at Ayr
Back Ice Nelly @ 3.8 in the 16:50 at Ffos Las
Back Totheendoftheearth @ 4.6 in the 20:10 at Windsor

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The Mellor Fella won a maiden at Pontefract in 2010 and left that form well behind when winning a seven-furlong handicap at Doncaster on his reappearance. He flopped over a mile last time but it would be no surprise to see him bounce back.

Next Edition made all over seven furlongs at Redcar in 2010 and improved when second on his nursery bow on his final start that year. He is yet to fire this time round, though, folding tamely at Newcastle last time.

Shamdarley showed significant improvement when switched to handicaps, winning with something in hand at Doncaster in May. H has had excuses both starts since and it's too soon to rule out further progress.

Izzy The Ozzy is a half-sister to several winners including a Grade 2 winner over a mile and a half in the US. She left her debut well behind when slamming her rivals over a mile at Ripon last time and should have much more to offer now sent handicapping.

Honest Deal was unraced as a two-year-old but has made up for lost time, comfortably landing the odds in a maiden over a mile at Hamilton in May. H was only third to Shamdarley in a handicap at Doncaster next time and was no threat at Newcastle on his latest start.

Circle of Angels left her debut run well behind when winning a nine-furlong maiden at Hamilton in mid-June. She carried her head awkwardly when a well-beaten favourite in a handicap there last time, but it's still early days.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1.    Izzy The Ozzy
2.    Shamdarley
3.    Circle of Angels

Timeform View: Izzy The Ozzy was having only her second start when running away with a maiden at Ripon last time and can make a winning start in handicaps. It's possible to excuse both of Shamdarley's defeats since his Doncaster success and he could emerge as the biggest threat.

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