TheSnapper

TheSnapper    $1 592,05
Mr.Kelly    $478,20
GreenGiant Poker$129,64
Reserves    $971,36
   
Total Funds    $3 095,15
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Mr.Kelly picked up another winning day yesterday, going 6/8 for a $10,76 profit, which has been added to his staking bank (now back up to $178). So, that's good news.

I won 10/17 yesterday (which is 2 bets more than I should have made, but whatever...)for a profit of $10,39. My stakes are now up to $7,96 per bet.


compounding, compounding, compounding....stay on it and focus on it...

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TheGreenGiant got beaten up again, losing 2 SNG, no profit. He is still in profit by about 30% overall, however.

   
TheSnapper    $1 581,66
Mr.Kelly    $467,44
GreenGiant Poker$132,64
Reserves    $968,30
Total Funds    $3 074,00

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Mr. Kelly won 3/4 yesterday for a gain of $22, so that's good news. He's still down for the month, though, even at level stakes, but it was nice to see his stakes rising and him getting his confidence back again. He is now using $167 to calculate his stake size, up from $145 yesterday. (Remember, Mr.Kelly started with just $20 and compounded it to over $3000 before burning down to under $2000. I then recalculated his betting bank and set him up again with $600 using a range between 0,4 and 12% as a stake, depending on the odds).

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I won 7/11 horse lays for a steady gain of $6,04. I am going to recalculate my own stake each day at a fixed 1%. Mr.Kelly is very unhappy about this staking. He hates fixed stakes, because there is no compounding of profits. For him, it is stagnation, and costs profits in the long run. Of course, in the short term you have more steady gains, with less volatility. So, for myself, I will take the balanced approach...the 1% adjusted daily will provide a compounding effect (although not as much as MrKelly wants).

My stats this month are:
   
Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
241    162    67,22%    $943,51    $81,66    10,89    4,52%    8,65%

So, the edge by stake (ROI) is 8%. If I am making an average of 12 bets per day, using just 1% of the bank per bet, that would mean risking around 12% of my bank per day. I will put a limit of 15 bets per day to effectively create a "stop-loss" for a bad day at -15% loss to the bank. Not exactly Kelly Staking, which requires a recalculation after each bet, but the trade-off is that I can make many more bets, increasing turnover and profits, while getting some compounding while still protecting the bank against a really bad run.
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Multiples Betting
I did 3 multiple trades yesterday for a profit of around $6 for the $12 states. I am suspending the entire idea, however, after checking my math. It seems that my back bets which "cover" my lay bets may not be enough to cover all the liabilities. Hmmmn...I will have to study this some more. Yesterday, after the first leg of a double bet won, I was facing a $23 overall loss should the second leg also have won. Luckily, it didn't, and I escaped with a few pennies in overall profit. But, the alarm bells rang! This may not be so easy after all, and it is a bit of a pain to run.
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The GreenGiant got smacked yesterday again, crashing out of 2 more 45-seater SNGs
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TheSnapper    $1 575,62
Mr.Kelly    $445,44
GreenGiant Poker    $139,14
Reserves    $1 024,90
Total Funds    $3 045,96
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Mr.Kelly has been in a rotten slump this month. He is down -25%. His stats tell a  poor story. 53 bets and only 27 wins resulting in -15,30 units at level stakes. So, whatever staking sytem is used, Mr.Kelly would be in a loss, and so far Kelly staking has worsened his situation (-25% Kelly stake vs -15% flat stake) compared to flat unit staking.

However, his stakes have shrunk down to $145 from $300, so his bank is getting better protection against a slump now... and that's the trade-off. Mr.Kelly sacrifices worse short-term performance to gain better long-term bank protection. HE will lose less and less during a long slump than Mr. Level Staker, but should also recover at a faster rate.We'll see how it goes!


My stats continue to be healthy. I'm grinding along at a slow rate using a fixed stake:
Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge by Stake
230    155    67,39%    $870,54    $75,62    +10,08        8,69%
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Poker
GreenGiant got smashed twice in 45-seaters. No profit.
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Multiples Trading
I was testing my new system yesterday. I did two multiples yesterday. Both picked up $3 in profit for $10 trades, so in total I have done 3 tests, gained $8 profit for 3 trades.

The next step is to make a solid investment plan for this system. I think it could be something like this: A two-trade multiple ( a double) using a multiple of up to 10 units (a 4.0 and a 2.5 bet, or a 3.0 and a 3.3, for example) and a bank set at $200. So the total of the back multiple would equal $200. The first lay is always for 20% more than the stake, so if the first leg loses, you gain 20% and you are finished. If it goes to a second leg, you can again lay again for the 20% gain as you are protected by the big back multiple. In theory, it sounds good and it may work, but I can see some problems. You have to keep good control of your position and watch out for mistakes. Also, other sports multiple prices are really bad, and may be impossible to turn a profit. The horseracing multiple SP quoted is also 5% lower than Betfair SP. On the other hand, multiples carry no commission charges.
Anyway, the idea is that a small bank of $200 could rather quickly grow using these constant profits and recycled investment (Mr.Kelly's favourite --- compounding earnings).
So, I'll set it up and start today a new bank dedicated to Betfair Multiples. Stay tuned.

Current Bank
TheSnapper    $1 583,41
Mr.Kelly    $438,05
GreenGiant Poker    $143,64
   
Shannon's Demon    $1 024,90
   
Total Funds    $3 046,36
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Dull stuff, to be sure. Mr. Kelly seems mired between $400 amd $500. I have fallen back under $1600, and the Demon is bracing for a terrible beating as Greece collapses and drags down the whole EU with it.
Only The GreenGiant is making any headway...75% profit so far as the bank builds up.
Mr.Kelly is in bad need of a big rally!
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I have also been trying out a rather different idea for Betfair. I have been studying Betfair multiples and working on a system for creating a back bet consisting of 2 or more different events, and then laying against them. The idea being that your big multiple provides "cover" for your lay bets. In theory, this form of derivative trading should lead to small, steady profits. It is, however, not so risk-free and you have to keep a good eye on your position as you go.

I tried this out on Saturday. I created a $10 multiple back bet combining a 3.5 and 3.0 runner. This bet is struck at SP odds, so I didn't know the exact amount it was for , I think it was around $90 if both horses won. I then laid the first runner for $12. The first runner lost and I had a $2 gain ($12 - the $10 muliple bet). If the runner had won, I would then have been faced with either a $90 win if the second horse won, or a $50-$60 loss if it lost. I would have green it up and walked away with a small profit before the race.

Anyway, you could repeat this all day if you want, and then do it on football and other sports. Just an idea for how to use Betfair multiples to create your own derivatives to trade against. (Just a note: keep the odds and stakes low so it doesn't blow up in your face!)

   
TheSnapper    $1 597,71
Mr.Kelly    $453,55
GreenGiant Poker    $136,30
   
Shannon's Demon    $1 024,90
Total Funds    $3 076,16

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Ouch! Mr.Kelly  had one of his worst days on record yesterday. He went a shocking 3/12 for a loss of -$109,88. His stake has shrunk to $153. However, it is  a good way to test how elastic this bankroll management system is. We'll see if he can bounce back in the next few days.

To be fair, I also lost yesterday, but using level stakes limited the damage quite a bit. I went a poor 7/15 for a loss of -$19,92 which is -2.66 units. My total is now +13.03 units, so it's not at all the disaster Mr.Kelly experienced!

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             Current Bank
TheSnapper     $1 617,63
Mr.Kelly     $563,43
GreenGiant Poker $142,40
Reserve             $1 000,00
Total Funds     $3 181,06
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Yesterday was a solid return for Mr.Kelly. He went 8/11 for a gain of $21,24. He is still under water since his return, however. His stake is now moved up to $263,43.

I was grinding away again at my level stakes. I also went 8/11 for a gain of $10,96. I need 9 more units of profit before I move my stake up by 25%. (I am using a simple 25% up, 25% down ladder for my level stakes).
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The GreenGiant went on another rampage yesterday and has now been officially joined my Florida fund. He hit the money 3 times out of 6 for a gain of $20,88 for a total buy-in of $5,10.


The GreenGiant stats for MTT (Multi-Table tournaments)
Events    Buy-Ins    Total Profit    ROI%
14,00    $16,70    $47,10           182,04%

The GreenGiant uses a simple strategy which involves no poker knowledge. He justs waits and waits until he gets the right hand in the right situation and then puts all his chips in the pot. Although is sounds stupidly simple, it is not. It is based on some deep research that shows that even if the GreenGiant shows you his cards in certain situations, you will still not be able to defeat him (in the long -run)! That's right...not you or anyone else in the world...and you don't need to know much about poker.

That's what I said. Even if you know what cards the big guy has, you cannot defeat him....whatever cards or strategy or knowledge of poker you have won't work. He is un-exploitable...all he should need now is a bankroll and some time, and that could be the problem...finding enough time to play so much poker to build up a Giant bankroll. (oh well, every super-hero needs a weakness,right?)

          Start BankCurrent Bank
TheSnapper    $200,00    $1 606,67
Mr.Kelly    $20,00    $542,19

Shannon's Demon    $1 046,59   

Total Funds    $3 195,45   
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Well, Mr.Kelly was back at work yesterday, but unfortuntely he lost 4/6 races for a net loss of -$57,81.
I, however, won 2/2 for a small profit of $9,42.

Mr.Kelly's stake is now based on $242,19 today after the loss. He still holds $300 as reserve and his bank total is $542,19.

In theory, Mr.Kelly can gamble forever and not go broke using this system.

I worked all last night compiling data for Mr.Kelly. The stats are very interesting. For a brief review for all of you, after piling up great profits for a few months, Mr.Kelly had a bad run in July and burned through a lot of his profits. I decided to take a break, check his stats and relaunch the big guy.

His stats break down as follows (all are lays in the place market under 4.0 odds just at the off):
Bets: 542
Total Stake: $24,256.51
Total Liabilities: $45,057.98
Total Profit: $2,187.35

Wins: 375
Losses: 167
Win%: 69.1%
Ave odds: 3,38

Level Stakes Units Profit: +95.12


Now, the question is which edge to use for his new Kelly stake: 1) his edge according to level stakes (17.5%)or 2) edge according to total stake (9%) or 3) edge according to liabilities (4.8%)

The problem is that most Kelly staking references assume you are backing, but Mr.Kelly is laying. Before, he was laying to 6%, but the stats show that this was too high and resulted in overstaking...which probably cost Mr.Kelly so much.

So, I will take 4% as Mr.Kelly's new stake per runner.

So, I have set up a new bank for Mr.Kelly with $600. $300 will be used in Betfair and the stake is calculated from this. So, in this way, Mr.JKelly is ring-fenced from other funds and he can only burn through his $300. The other $300 will be invested in reserves. (In this way, even if Mr.Kelly blows down to $300, eventually the reserves will supply him with more money from investments to keep going). He will be back at work today and I'll post the results, and hopefully start a new chart! Each day, half of his profits will be sent to his reserves and half used to increase his stakes.

Meanwhile, I will grind along using (nearly) level stakes for runners in the same market. You will be able to compare the results of level staking vs Kelly Staking as we go.

Mr.Kelly turned $20 into $2000. It should be feasible for the big guy to crank out $30,000 from $300!

Now I have this hopefully set up better, we can get on to Florida. (The prices there are getting shocking! Historic lows...)
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The slobbering dogs got slimed last night by Charlton!! Woof!

Tonight, they are eagerly rushing to bet on Euro soccer matches. Therefore, I'm going to lay the following matches for fun as a side bank ("called the slobbering dog system"):

Lay:
Croatia under 1.45
England under 1.15
Italy under 1.44
Scotland under 1.57
Denmark under 2.00

Don't know if I'll get any of these beasts matched, but we'll see how hungry the dogs are tonight!

Horseracing    $795,83       
Shannon's Demon    $1 398,53                   
Total Funds    $3 197,77       

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One soccer pick for tonight:

Lay Charlton @1,97

My soccer strategy is simple. Be contrarian. If everyone and their dog is backing, it's time to lay. Unfortunately, only 1 match on today. Whatever...Charlton has 80+% of all bets made... The slobbering dogs have heard the bell ringing...
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Horseracing Place Results

Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
172    121    70,35%    $604,94    $89,96    11,89    6,91%    14,87%

I got knocked back a bit this weekend, but I am still doing ok.

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Poker



In Poker , the GreenGiant has been stomping all that stand before him. He won a 45-seater, 2 9-seaters and hit the money in a 18-seater and 2 9 seats over the weekend. Overall, he gained about 23 buy-ins!

I am considering adding the GreenGiant to the Florida fund, even though he only uses small buy-ins at the moment. But the strategy is proving successful. The GreenGiant simply relies on what Warren Buffet has said for years...Be GREEDY when others are FEARFUL and be FEARFUL when others are GREEDY...i.e. be a contrarian.This idea seems to work very well in poker too...players are too aggressive at the wrong time, and too timid at the wrong time. The GreenGiant has a simple strategy...he doesn't want to play in complex situations on the river or the turn. He is either IN (in a big way) or OUT (fold). He relies on players being over cautious, especially around the bubble ( 4 players remaining for 3 prizes, for example). He has won some astonishing hands along the way...other players think that the Giant wants to beat their cards, but he doesn't...he wants their blinds. That is the key to his success.

But it would take some time for the GreenGiant to build up a bank large enough to help to get to Florida. Currently, he has about 50 buy-ins at the $1,50 tourneys. He will move up when he gets to 50 buy-ins for the $2 level. The plan is for the GreenGiant to move up level by level, each time playing with 100 buy-ins and dropping back when he goes down to 25 buy-ins. It will take some time to move up to $10, $25 and above tourneys...and the opponents are sure to be tougher. We'll see how the strategy works as he goes up.

Bank updates

Horseracing    $795,83        Bets:    129    Profit in Units:    13,48
Baseball    $202,50        Bets:    60    Profit in Units:    -1,24
Soccer    $200,91        Bets:    4    Profit in Units:    0,46
NHL    $200,00        Bets:    0    Profit in Units:    0
NBA    $200,00        Bets:    0    Profit in Units:    0
NFL    $200,00        Bets:    0    Profit in Units:    0
                       
                       
Shannon's Demon    $1 398,53                   
Total Funds    $3 197,77        Bets:    193    Profit in Units:    12,70


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MLB
A poor day in the MLB yesterday, with only 2/7 winners. Horseracing picked up another 1,36 units in profit. Today marks the official launch of my soccer lay bank. Feel free to use my picks, as I have already made the bet myself. (I'd always be wary of a chef who won't eat his own cooking.)
No MLB picks yet, I'll try and get them out for today, but I'm a bit streched for time.

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Soccer
Here are my soccer lays for tonights matches. Some really lop-sided, stupid international matches involving many really half-motivated, crappy players. It's a complete lottery... However, always remeber that if it's bad for backers, it's good for layers! I check the correct score markets and find bad odds to lay. These are odds which are off by at least 10%. So, if you lay these selections over time, you should be well in profit.I don't claim to know anything at all about any of the teams involved. It is just a numbers game, nothing else...These are all lay bets, and you need to keep your stakes very low because the liability is usually over 10x your stake! The great thing about soccer is that there are are so many matches and so many correct scores possible...there are always bound to be many prices which are bad. So, lay these match correct scores at my odds or lower. (I may have other, unmatched bets which are not listed here because they are unmatched).

Norway v Iceland / Correct Score     3 - 1 15        
Norway v Iceland / Correct Score     2 - 1     9.8
Hungary v Sweden / Correct Score     2 - 2     19.5
Luxembourg v Romania / Correct Score     1 - 3     18        
Luxembourg v Romania / Correct Score     1 - 2     13.5        
Luxembourg v Romania / Correct Score     1 - 1     19        
Belarus v Bosnia / Correct Score     2 - 2     20        
Malta v Croatia / Correct Score     1 - 3     19.5        
Malta v Croatia / Correct Score     1 - 2     14        
Russia v FYR Macedonia / Correct Score     3 - 1     14.5        
Russia v FYR Macedonia / Correct Score     2 - 1     13.5        
Andorra v Armenia / Correct Score     1 - 3     20     
Andorra v Armenia / Correct Score     1 - 2     13        
Lithuania v Liechtenstein / Correct Score     3 - 1     17     
Stockport v Luton / Correct Score     2 - 2     16