I worked all last night compiling data for Mr.Kelly. The stats are very interesting. For a brief review for all of you, after piling up great profits for a few months, Mr.Kelly had a bad run in July and burned through a lot of his profits. I decided to take a break, check his stats and relaunch the big guy.
His stats break down as follows (all are lays in the place market under 4.0 odds just at the off):
Bets: 542
Total Stake: $24,256.51
Total Liabilities: $45,057.98
Total Profit: $2,187.35
Wins: 375
Losses: 167
Win%: 69.1%
Ave odds: 3,38
Level Stakes Units Profit: +95.12
Now, the question is which edge to use for his new Kelly stake: 1) his edge according to level stakes (17.5%)or 2) edge according to total stake (9%) or 3) edge according to liabilities (4.8%)
The problem is that most Kelly staking references assume you are backing, but Mr.Kelly is laying. Before, he was laying to 6%, but the stats show that this was too high and resulted in overstaking...which probably cost Mr.Kelly so much.
So, I will take 4% as Mr.Kelly's new stake per runner.
So, I have set up a new bank for Mr.Kelly with $600. $300 will be used in Betfair and the stake is calculated from this. So, in this way, Mr.JKelly is ring-fenced from other funds and he can only burn through his $300. The other $300 will be invested in reserves. (In this way, even if Mr.Kelly blows down to $300, eventually the reserves will supply him with more money from investments to keep going). He will be back at work today and I'll post the results, and hopefully start a new chart! Each day, half of his profits will be sent to his reserves and half used to increase his stakes.
Meanwhile, I will grind along using (nearly) level stakes for runners in the same market. You will be able to compare the results of level staking vs Kelly Staking as we go.
Mr.Kelly turned $20 into $2000. It should be feasible for the big guy to crank out $30,000 from $300!
Now I have this hopefully set up better, we can get on to Florida. (The prices there are getting shocking! Historic lows...)
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The slobbering dogs got slimed last night by Charlton!! Woof!
Tonight, they are eagerly rushing to bet on Euro soccer matches. Therefore, I'm going to lay the following matches for fun as a side bank ("called the slobbering dog system"):
Lay:
Croatia under 1.45
England under 1.15
Italy under 1.44
Scotland under 1.57
Denmark under 2.00
Don't know if I'll get any of these beasts matched, but we'll see how hungry the dogs are tonight!
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