TheSnapper

   
TheSnapper    $1 575,62
Mr.Kelly    $445,44
GreenGiant Poker    $139,14
Reserves    $1 024,90
Total Funds    $3 045,96
-------------------------------

Mr.Kelly has been in a rotten slump this month. He is down -25%. His stats tell a  poor story. 53 bets and only 27 wins resulting in -15,30 units at level stakes. So, whatever staking sytem is used, Mr.Kelly would be in a loss, and so far Kelly staking has worsened his situation (-25% Kelly stake vs -15% flat stake) compared to flat unit staking.

However, his stakes have shrunk down to $145 from $300, so his bank is getting better protection against a slump now... and that's the trade-off. Mr.Kelly sacrifices worse short-term performance to gain better long-term bank protection. HE will lose less and less during a long slump than Mr. Level Staker, but should also recover at a faster rate.We'll see how it goes!


My stats continue to be healthy. I'm grinding along at a slow rate using a fixed stake:
Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge by Stake
230    155    67,39%    $870,54    $75,62    +10,08        8,69%
------------------------------

Poker
GreenGiant got smashed twice in 45-seaters. No profit.
-----------------------------

Multiples Trading
I was testing my new system yesterday. I did two multiples yesterday. Both picked up $3 in profit for $10 trades, so in total I have done 3 tests, gained $8 profit for 3 trades.

The next step is to make a solid investment plan for this system. I think it could be something like this: A two-trade multiple ( a double) using a multiple of up to 10 units (a 4.0 and a 2.5 bet, or a 3.0 and a 3.3, for example) and a bank set at $200. So the total of the back multiple would equal $200. The first lay is always for 20% more than the stake, so if the first leg loses, you gain 20% and you are finished. If it goes to a second leg, you can again lay again for the 20% gain as you are protected by the big back multiple. In theory, it sounds good and it may work, but I can see some problems. You have to keep good control of your position and watch out for mistakes. Also, other sports multiple prices are really bad, and may be impossible to turn a profit. The horseracing multiple SP quoted is also 5% lower than Betfair SP. On the other hand, multiples carry no commission charges.
Anyway, the idea is that a small bank of $200 could rather quickly grow using these constant profits and recycled investment (Mr.Kelly's favourite --- compounding earnings).
So, I'll set it up and start today a new bank dedicated to Betfair Multiples. Stay tuned.