TheSnapper $1 581,66
Mr.Kelly $467,44
GreenGiant Poker$132,64
Reserves $968,30
Total Funds $3 074,00
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Mr. Kelly won 3/4 yesterday for a gain of $22, so that's good news. He's still down for the month, though, even at level stakes, but it was nice to see his stakes rising and him getting his confidence back again. He is now using $167 to calculate his stake size, up from $145 yesterday. (Remember, Mr.Kelly started with just $20 and compounded it to over $3000 before burning down to under $2000. I then recalculated his betting bank and set him up again with $600 using a range between 0,4 and 12% as a stake, depending on the odds).
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I won 7/11 horse lays for a steady gain of $6,04. I am going to recalculate my own stake each day at a fixed 1%. Mr.Kelly is very unhappy about this staking. He hates fixed stakes, because there is no compounding of profits. For him, it is stagnation, and costs profits in the long run. Of course, in the short term you have more steady gains, with less volatility. So, for myself, I will take the balanced approach...the 1% adjusted daily will provide a compounding effect (although not as much as MrKelly wants).
My stats this month are:
Total Bets Total Wins Win% Total Stake Total Profits Units in Profit Edge Edge by Stake
241 162 67,22% $943,51 $81,66 10,89 4,52% 8,65%
So, the edge by stake (ROI) is 8%. If I am making an average of 12 bets per day, using just 1% of the bank per bet, that would mean risking around 12% of my bank per day. I will put a limit of 15 bets per day to effectively create a "stop-loss" for a bad day at -15% loss to the bank. Not exactly Kelly Staking, which requires a recalculation after each bet, but the trade-off is that I can make many more bets, increasing turnover and profits, while getting some compounding while still protecting the bank against a really bad run.
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Multiples Betting
I did 3 multiple trades yesterday for a profit of around $6 for the $12 states. I am suspending the entire idea, however, after checking my math. It seems that my back bets which "cover" my lay bets may not be enough to cover all the liabilities. Hmmmn...I will have to study this some more. Yesterday, after the first leg of a double bet won, I was facing a $23 overall loss should the second leg also have won. Luckily, it didn't, and I escaped with a few pennies in overall profit. But, the alarm bells rang! This may not be so easy after all, and it is a bit of a pain to run.
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The GreenGiant got smacked yesterday again, crashing out of 2 more 45-seater SNGs
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