theirry

Nice view

I think my trading would improve if I had a decent setup. Something like this would be good.

Following on from my decision to only bet at evens or greater todays bets are

blackpool v bolton: back the draw @3.7
sunderland v wolverhampton: back the draw@3.45
west brom v everton: back the draw @3.45

Just a quick bet

1.30 york: back pymans theory @2.04 to place

Following yesterdays defeat with federer falling at the hands of gasquet Ive finally realised that you cant win by betting based on ablility. All things being equal the person or team with greatest ability should always beat their opponent. They should only lose to someone of lesser ability or skill. The fastest 100m runner should always beat the person who runs slower and so on. However this assumes that the person will perform to their maximum ability and this can not be guranteed. That is the problem with sports betting because you have no idea how someone will perform on the day. Will they perform above or at their potential, lower then their potenital or will their opponent perform above their potential. There is no way to predict this which is why tottenham lost at blackpool and federer lost to gasquet. So I feel that it really is a coinflip. If im taking coinflips I want even money 50/50. For that reason I will from this point only be betting on even money odds 2.0 or greater.

Ive been trying a few ideas lately and this one is a really simple concept. So many times I place bets and then afterwards think 'I knew it, I knew I shouldnt have done that'. This is normally for a variety of reasons. Maybe its late and nothing to bet on, maybe im in a rush, maybe im tired. Whatever the reason theres normally an inner voice thats pointing out this is not a banker. Thats it its really simple if theres any reasonable doubt then the selection will become a lay.

So we start today with federer v gasquet.

There is a bit of doubt but no reasonable doubt. Anyway I look at tennis stats and see federer is 8-1 h2h. Hes been to semi-final of sony eriksson, quarter final of monte carlo and semi of madrid. Gasquet on the other hand has had a lot of 1st and 2nd round exits. Add to the fact federer is widely accepted as the best player ever to pick up a tennis racquet and this is a clear back.

federer to win

Lets take a look at Jarkko Nieminen vs Tomas Berdych

Now here is reasonable doubt. I have no idea from the off who will win. Looking at the stats im still not sure about either. For me thats value. Berdych at 1.19 is a lay.

Lay berdych

Been another good day with my system once again producing a 100% strike rate in greyhound laying. Same again tommorow I hope.

Time to put my system to the test again

nottingham bags 10/05/11

11.03 lay trap 6
11.19 lay trap 5
11.34 lay trap 2
11.48 lay trap 4
12.04 lay trap 2
12.18 lay trap 4
12.32 lay trap 5
12.47 lay trap 1
1.04 lay trap 5
1.19 lay trap 6
1.33 lay trap 3
1.51 lay trap 1

Well todays been a good day with my greyhound laying system producing a 100% strike rate. Lets see if it continues tommorow

This system came to me purely by accident. Its based on me misnterpreting all the figures, stats, and other data in relation to greyhounds. However it has resulted in a system which seems to be quite succesfull. It relies on me however continuing to take data to mean something it doesnt. I cant explain the system but I will post all selections in a minute. 

sheffield bags 09/05/11

12.27 lay trap 3
12.42 lay trap 2
12.58 lay trap 6
1.12 lay trap 2
1.27 lay trap 1
1.44 lay trap 2
1.58 lay trap 4