thehappysnapper

This is what the new staking plan is all about and its there to protect myself from getting frustrated after nights like this and going on tilt, having 10 bets a night in all the handicaps and listed races and generally doing my balls. I dont feel i did a great deal wrong with 2 of the 3 runners going off much shorter than i backed them Sweet Lavender got done by a vastly improved Cecil horse that not even the master of warren place himself would have predicted and Ted Durcan had his own ideas about Protanto who travelled nicely but was never really put in the race. If hes prepared to ride him like that in her 2nd start god only knows what he is going to do next time on his 3rd run for a hanidcap mark which must be the road they have decided to take already.

As for Alshmemi he ran a great race and must admit i thought he was going to hold off all challengers and at one point even looked like he might kick away from the field all together. I dont think it was the idea to be in front so long as he probably very slightly over raced in the early stages and first time out saw far too much daylight. Out in front a long time and he just started to wander coming up the sandown hill which probably cost her the race but i think the form will be very strong and will be interesting to see what mark he gets. A really slick mover and can definitely keep improving, i think the handicapper will rate the race quite highly but if he gets away with a mark the right side of 80 then i will be having a very close look at him.

Back to the general results for a second after 8 runners i have had just one 3/1 winner which isnt the best start but i started this thread to test the new staking plan and i have to be pretty happy with what i have seen. If was backing them all 10pts win for example i would be 40pts in the red already and pulling my hair out again because so many of the runners have gone close but under the new system i'm a tidy 22pts in front and feel completely in control of my punting.

Lets see what tomorrow brings

Oh and nearly forgot to mention 6 followers already after 4 days. Think Jesus only managed 12 didnt he?



Yarmouth 2.10 Protanto 4th @ 9/2 (-5pts)
Sandown 2.55 Alshmemi 3rd @ 8/1 (+14pts)
Kempton 7.10 Sweet Lavender 2nd @ 11/10 (-4pts)
Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)

Running Total
P/L +22pts

Not going to bang on for too long about Sweet Lavender in the kempton maiden after all it is 2/1 favourite so i dont need to tell you its got a winning chance.

The next three in the market are all sure to run thier race and have earnt their handicap ratings in the mid 70's but just think there is a fair chance Sweet Lavender is fair bit better after just the one run i think she has already run to a mark on the mid 70's and that performance last time has to be one of the most eye catching runs i have seen on the all weather this year. Nothing else got into the race from off the pace apart from this girl who was simply eating up the ground in the last furlong. The extra 2 furlongs will be ideal may well prove to be out of the top draw. being a 2/1 shot i have just played her win only so for the sake of the blog p/l i will be recording the bet as 4pts win at 9/4.

Third and final bet in the first at yarmouth is Protanto at 7/1 win and Evens a place. Not going mad on this one just 1pt win and 4 place mainly because of the 50 days break between first and second run which is always a bit of a negative in my book. Theres not really any confidence behind any of the new comers and im sure stoutes wants a fair bit further than the 7 furlongs on offer here.

Obviously got Electrician as the one to beat but altho that was an Ascot maiden he was 2nd in first up the form has to treated with a degree of caution when baring in mind the first and second favs at 2/1 and 9/4 clearly didnt fire (i backed the hills horse) and he was left to fight out the finish with another completely unfancied runner. Clearly the most likely winner but wouldnt be at all surprised to see Protanto give him race after shaping with loads of promise in a much better race at newmarket first time out.

to recap....

4pts Sweet Lavender @ 2/1 or better
1 win by 4 place Protanto @ 7/1
2 win by 8 place Alshmemi @ 9/1

I hate it when pundits say that every time there is a half decent maiden, no one even has video recorders any more.

Anyway if you havent realised already the vast majority of my bets will be in maidens, in fact currently its all of them, and again today i intend to play in three, one at each track.

I will kickoff with my strongest at the prices which comes in the sandown 2.55 in the shape of Alshmemi, anything around 9/1 (365) win and 2/1 place looks cracking value and im expecting a big run. This nicely bred colt was just far too keen first time up and didnt stand a chance of seeing his race out but ridden with cover last time he raced far more professionally and had clearly learnt plenty. I expect to see him take another big step forward from that form today, altho a reproduction of it would surely see him in the mix anyway, with the drying conditions likely to be a massive boost. To a small sample size Bernardini has a 35% strike rate on good ground.

Greek War is just far far too short at 2/1 and has to be taken on. His fourth last time is in a good enough newmarket maiden but was no means the strongest run at the track this year. Theres loads of interesting contenders in this race including loads of newcomers from big yards i really think anyone taking 2/1 needs their head read.

Free House ran well enough in a newmarket race thats working out very well but that form has now been well and truely exposed and the market has taken no chances at around 5/1 on the fair. Everything that finished in front of him has won next time i have been lucky enough to back a couple of them but to put this in perspective i got 9/2 a few weeks back about Travelling who finished in front of him to win a bad wolverhampton maiden now Meehans horse is as short as 4/1 with 365 to win a hot race like this. A chance but the cat is well and truely out the bag regards the form and even 5/1 doesnt offer that much value.

I cant comment on all the interesting newcomers, there are 7 in total from big yards all i will say is PLEASE PLEASE REMEMBER TO SET YOUR VHS RECORDER.


two more bets to follow....

first winner for the blog and its first follower, feels like Christmas and Birthday coming at once.

So would offically like to take this opportunity to welcome pete and pleased to hear you got involved in yesterdays great gamble on holiday reading.

It was a poor heat luckily for us because i dont think we had great deal more to offer and wouldnt have thought he will be one to follow next time. For the sake of my records i ended up with 1/2 a place and 3/1 win giving me a tidy profit of 10pts after the boys in the reduction factor department had their pound of flesh.

I had a feeling i had studied the racing too long when came up with Sleep Dance espeically as when selecting the non runner Russian Affair earlier in the day she didnt really feature in my thoughts. In theory it worked out quite nicely for her from the draw she got the ideal sit behind a strong pace which towed her into the last couple of furlongs with ease. At this point i actually thought we were travelling was well as any and probably better than the other held up horse and eventual winner. But once coming off the bridle she showed her true colours and quickly dropped out of contention. I highly doubt she will ever win a race and wouldnt suggest shes one to follow. I recorded a bet of 5pts place at 9/4 and 2 win at 20/1 which was actually more than i meant to record as only had 4 by 1 but for the sake of the blog's record i will stick with 5 by 2 giving me hefty loss of 7pts.

Much higher quality racing at kempton, yarmouth and sandown ahead of us which means they will no doubt be competitive affairs but one or two runners do take my eye at first glance.

I'll be back....


Folkestone 2.50 Holiday Reading 1st @ 3/1 (+10pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Sleep Dance upl @ 12/1 (-7pts)
Folkestone 3.20 Russian Affair NR
Previous P/L (+14pts)

Running total +17pts

This final bet of the day has probably come about because i've been over thinking and spent too long look for some that isnt there. But going to have a small bet (5pts place 2pts win) on Sleep Dance in the 3.50 Folkestone. Could also play it each way with the books at 14/1 and therefore getting nearly 3/1 a place but just dont want a great deal on win and then I also run the risk of another non runner coming out. From an ideal draw in stall 8 i do think she can serve it up to the boys who dont look the most convincing bunch. The bare form of Sleep Dance's 3rd isnt very good it has to be said but she didnt enjoy the cleanest of breaks and was definitely doing her best work late on so the step up to 7f will most likely help.

Got to take a real leap of faith to back Hannon's thing that hasnt run any sort of race since April and Cumani's isnt the most convincing either and has a bad draw to boot.

The fav should take the race and whilst i have basically ruled out backing anything under 5/2 if he was to get out towards the 6/4 mark i would have to consider breaking my new golden rule. If he was drawn on the rail i would probably play at the price altho im not convinced about coming back to 7f. 2nd in a newmarket maiden would normally make you odds on to win a folkestone maiden but it wasnt the strongest of contests and he never looked like winning it.

around 20/1 on the fair and 9/4ish to make the frame isnt a bad price for a small investment.

oh and i have my first follower, the blog is really starting to cause a bit of stir.

dont ask the rp they report good to soft and good to firm on the same page. I'm sure its an honest mistake and its still on the soft side and that is what i have based my meticulous form study on this morning.

Very keen on Holiday Reading at 7/2 and 8/11 to place in the first maiden. Drawn a little further away from the all important stands side rail than i would ideally like but thats were the negatives end. Meehan's horses normally take a run or two at least to reach peak fitness and hopefully Holiday Reading can take another step forward today. Was an ok introduction at sandown looking tried in the closing stages when hanging to his right onto the unfavoured ground up the hill. Was quite testing that ground and the drying conditions certainly wont hurt today. But it was his last effort at Newmarket in a much better race than this which took my eye, breaking well and racing front rank for the first 6f and only really backed out of contention in the last furlong over a mile. Back to 7f today will be perfect and so will the less testing track, looking at his breeding i actually think 6f could be his best trip.

Asifa didnt really do a great deal first time out. did miss the break but didnt think he was as eye catching in the closing stages as many and pretty sure he isnt one of their better ones with Pat Cosgrave taking the ride. What number is he in the pecking order?

Marcus Augustus form is awful even tho he has some placed efforts to his name after closer investigation not a single race has worked out.

Really only think he has the favourite Viola Da Gamba to beat. she is decent enough filly and battled on gamely to finish 2nd over course and distance last time behind a decent one of paul coles. I backed her that day and never felt i was going to get the win money and just think she may lack a little bit of speed.

Still searching for my first win on day 3 of the blog but am confident by 2.55 my quest will be over.

The only other bet i'm having today is Russian Affair in the 3.50 maiden at the same course. I dont think there is much between General Synod, Semmsu, and Russian Affair in truth but with my boy drawn in 9 he is at a huge advantage. Doesnt do anything massively quickly and im not convinced he will be able to hold of Upcountry in the closing stages either but at around 9/2 to win and 4/5 to place im willing to pay to find out.

Again will be playing the place part of the bets to 80% of my stake.

I don't know why Darsan didnt run i guess it was on a vets cert and i dont know if she would have beaten the winner but it was an awful race i think and would have to of gone close.

If only abundantly was withdrawn as well i would have had an ok night but she just never travelled on the surface and may be worth another look back on a turf track if turned out again before the end of the season but more likely will aimed at handicaps after one more run.

hoping to unearth some gold at folkestone but every horse im interested in seems to have been drawn too far from the golden highway under the stands rail. 

Bets to follow....


Kempton 3.10 - Abundantly upl @ 8/1 (-10pts)
Kempton 2.40 - Darsan NR
ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)


Day two running total
P/L +14pts

The preceding fillies maiden at 2.40 is also a race i want to be involved in and im taken by the very promising Darsan @ around 5/1 and even money to place.

The race in which she began her career was probably only a modest one in truth altho the front 4 did pull 7 lengths clear of the reminder so it was by no means terrible. Darsan drawn wide, missed break, raced keenly before thundering home over 7f at kempton last time. Wall rarely has a first time out winner and she can take a big step forward today and shake up the godolphin shortie from aa better draw. The yard are also in really decent form which is never a bad thing.

There are one or two interesting fillies in this worth a mention. The favourites chance is obvious but did get run down by a 66/1 shot last time and there was a bit of a bunch finish to the race so im not overly strong on the form at the moment, certainly not strong enough to be interested in her at the current price of 11/10.

Barathea Dancer has had loads of chances all her form is there to see and wouldnt be surprised to see her go close but its not my style backing horses with her profile i would much prefer to be on something on the upgrade.

As i said yesterday im much less interested in Al Zarooni'a 3yo's than his 2yo's and u have to wonder what has been the problem for then to only be making their debut's so late in the season a comment that also applies to Prescotts runner. Market moves would obviously be significant.

Of the horses that have run there 4 in the race the 3 i have mentioned and Becketts fabulouslyspirited who is definitely interesting now up in trip to a more suitable distance. Havent really got anything too negative to say about her and the form in the book looks ok apart from maybe the form of the yard who are now 22 without a winner in september.

Darsan at 5/1.

Only just seen the replays of yesterdays ffos las races and if only Katia remembered at any point in the last 3 furlongs what the long rubber thing in her hand was used for she probably would have won. That said she is a 7 pound claimer so dont want to be too harsh on the lass.

firstly nothing really interests me at brighton so skipped straight onto the all weather card at kempton where both fillies maidens are good betting heats.

Will start with the 3.10 mainly because im very keen to take on Parisian Princess at around 7/4. A decent 3rd in an ok race at the course last time and the extra furlong looks like it will help but i reckon this is an ok race and interesting to note she has been sent off 40/1 and 33/1 previously.

Winners Wish is a bigger price than i thought she would be this morning with Dettori booked and a run at HQ under her belt but i wasnt massively taken with the run i think there was swish of the tail early on and didnt look the most willing in the closing stages, it may just have been down to greenness but just wasnt overly taken with her, they didnt go very fast early so arguably was in the best position and ended up getting beat a fair way.

The meehan pair are both coming back from 3 month breaks and just one run away from a handicap mark. i would be amazed if hes got either fit enough to be competitive.

Not much i can say about the hannon newcomer Misdemeanour apart from Azamour has a massive 20% strike rate on the all weather and the market does have to be watched.

The only other two to talk about are Abundantly and Zamarelle. Havlin gave the former a very educational introduction at chepstow last time just nudging her into the race hands and heels after badly missing the break. She travelled like a really nice horse tho and was still moving the best 2 furlongs out and with a little effort from the saddle would certainly have got a lot closer. I'm please Havlin did look after her last time tho as the ground would have been against her and he may have done more damage than good. I'm not sure what the deal is exactly with Drowne, Morrison and Charlton apart from he seems to be the first choice jock for both yards and appears to have the choice of which horse he fancies most. so with that being said i find very interesting hes opted for Morrisons Adundantly today after ridding Zamarelle twice in the past for charlton and has some ok form in the book it has to be said. There wasnt much wrong with her run at salisbury when 5th behind some nice horses and may well have been running on unfavourable ground off the rail for the whole race.

Double figures of around 12/1 look on the cards and i'm having on in abundance

Unsurprisingly the first 2 runners make the frame justifying my new slightly odd staking plan of 80% on in the place market. Both trading at long odds on to win. For results purposes i will be recording profit/loss as 8pts place 2pts win on all selections for example 8pts at 5/2 = 20pts - 2pts win for Journalistic is an 18pt profit.

ffos las 2.20 - Journalistic 2nd @ 20/1 (+18pts)
ffos las 2.50 - Drakes Drum 3rd @ 7/2  (+6pts)


Day one running total
P/L +24pts