May 27, 2024 -- 11:45AM, edy wrote:

It's a match with a few question marks for me, but I think it's a somewhat fair price. Zverev won the Rome Masters in the most recent big clay tournament prior to Roland Garros, but he generally hasn't been in eye watering form during the clay season and didn't have to beat anyone of note in Rome. He also has had some tendencies in the past to have trouble finding his way into slams (i.e. struggled against players he should be beating easily). If not for Zverev's own struggles for form, I'd think the price would actually be on the high side against a Nadal who has shown little during this clay season that he can still compete with the best on the surface, which Zverev belongs to.Another question mark is Nadal's fitness and ability to go the a long distance. Total unknown to me as he simply hasn't played any long matches in a while, but I'd lean towards him not being able to do it.As for the match up itself: Zverev has a negative head to head with Nadal, but he has beaten him on clay (fast altitude clay in Madrid) and also ran him close for two sets at their latest encounter at Roland Garros. Sadly Zverev ruptured every ligament in one of his ankles during the second set tiebreak. Zverev generally likes playing left handers as his backhand is his far better wing, especially when it comes to returning.....All that said.....as SamuelMertensBertens wrote.....it is Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros (and I think this reputation is another reason that keeps the price higher than maybe it should be on level of play and match up)

indoors now. Not good for Rafa.