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ATP Monte Carlo 16/04
ATP Monte Carlo 16/04
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Replies: 1,060
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anyone here have an acca on montecarlo? the funny thing is I tried placing one, it shows up in my account statement but not in current bets.
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yes 30-40 is obviously more dangerous than 0-15. But 0-0 is the same as 30-30 and, as deuce and as 15-15.
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the server has 60-80% chance of winning his service games and the returner has 20-40% chance of winning return games (average figures)...for a returner to get to 30-30, he has defied his maximum 40% and he's doing better than expected, meaning the server has underperformed, so it will be harder for him to close it out if he is underperforming.
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at 30-30, the returner has achieved 50% of the game points.
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thats irrelevant.
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how is it irrelevant
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AZ91, you are trying the impossible. you can rather beat rafa on clay
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it is totally relevant because you said "30-30 is the same as 0-0". they are NOT the same. every returner would rather be in a 30-30 position than a 0-0 position
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not sure it's as black and white as that. but I would say 30-30 is not the same as deuce because it means the receiver has won 2 points against serve. harder to win 4 points on serve than it is to win 2.
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Because they are level on points.. it is not worth trying to explain it to you.
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yes, it is harder to win 4 points than 2, against serve. But it is equally, easier for the server to serve two good points than four. The probability is the same.
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The probability is not the same.
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they are level on points indeed, but the difficulty of getting points as a returner is higher than the difficult for a server to get points
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That difference is service/return of serve expectation was described by the odds at the start of the game/set/match and so within it, on level points, it should not deviate.
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so to be in a 30-30 position is an advantage to the returner, as oppose to the server
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its not an advantage to the returner. Ignore those four points, and focus on the next and you'll see what I am saying.
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If a football match was first to score 4 goals and Team A were 1.66 next goal, and Team B were 2.5 next goal (for every goal) then Team B would have a bigger chance of winning the match at 2-2 than at 0-0.
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lol anyone on Kohl? I stuck 20 on but not happy so far, on at 1.9
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I am on Kohlschreiber.
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good then we can lose together. I think RMB nailed it
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if you looked carefully at 100 games where the score is 0-0
and 100 other games where at some point the score is 30-30. you will definitely find that there are many more breaks from the 100 games from the 30-30 batch. and this concludes why 30-30 is not the same as 0-0 |
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Honestly, Kohlschreiber is surely motivated to play Nadal in the next round
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Somehow, I doubt you would, particularly as there is a tennis betting theory which says always back the server at deuce and 40-A
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joined you two. at kohl on 2.06
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yes.
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good theory if isner is serving on worlds fastest court
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its something to do with the variance in the odds, I don't use it, but I saw it previously.
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What if that same server has been broken his last 5 service games?
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dont know, leefee, look it up.
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Andujar looks more like a homeless person each time he plays.
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in all honesty, i think there's too many 'if's' and 'buts' to conclude anything. there are hunderds of different scenarios and each one needs to be treated differently
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That sounds too much like hard work S-or-A
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If Andujar breaks, watch his odds go ridiculously low.
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Backing the server at *40-A has nothing to do with whether they're more likely to be broken from 0-0 than 30-30. In ATP the majority of points are won by the server, assuming this, then 30-30 is definitely a better position for the returner than 0-0. Obviously anomalies occur when the server is more likely to win each point i.e. most of the WTA serving to Serena.
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