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Eurovision 2026

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By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:23

subtitles

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 21:31

I do like Malta

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:33

the first song tonight stands out as it had a bit of sass/spunkk. for some reason the one that was knocking around my head after Tuesday was Croatia

By:

Henry VIII When: 14 May 26 21:36

Laid a lot of Aus at 7. Don't think it's winning.

By:

Henry VIII When: 14 May 26 21:37

It could go lower, a lot waiting at 7.4, but it's been massively talked up.

By:

FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK When: 14 May 26 21:37

Happy with my Noway bet
Easy top 5 tonight

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:38

Surely does well with juries H. Maybe even top with the high profile act.

By:

Bobsyauncle When: 14 May 26 21:40

It's been favorite to top Jury for weeks now. Looks pretty safe to say it will top it.

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:40

So a back to lay, or just lay when the scores start percolating.

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 21:43

Not everyone knows how it works, so you could see Aus going to 3s or something

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:44

I don't get Finland's price really. It might be likeliest but I don't see it running away with either side.

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:47

I suppose it's the beauty of coming in blind. 3/1 would be tight

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 21:48

May 14, 2026 -- 9:44PM, Cider wrote:

I don't get Finland's price really. It might be likeliest but I don't see it running away with either side.

One of the only ones that'll score well with both sides really. That, and it smashed the EurovisionWorld poll, which is usually a very good sign (winner from last 10 years is always in the top two)

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 21:49

It is weak compared to previous years, but has the fewest question marks

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 21:53

Interesting Lifter, so they are perceived likely to do well with juries. I can put several ahead of it. I think my primary strategy will be a lay to back

By:

Escapee When: 14 May 26 21:59

G'Luck

In profit if I get 2 out of 3

Semi Final 2 -- To Qualify

15 Runners 10 Winners £317,868 Matched

				831.2%	984.4%
	Denmark	-	-	-	1.01	1.04	-	£14,073
					£4,181	£93
	Australia	-	-	-	1.01	1.65	-	£6,638
					£2,919	£2
	Romania	-	-	1.01	1.02	1.03	1.04	£30,479
				£5,909	£3,026	£93	£93
	Ukraine	-	-	1.01	1.02	1.03	1.04	£21,196
				£8,859	£342	£509	£50
	Cyprus	1.6	1.62	1.8	1.86	1.91	1.92	£41,367
		£3	£2	£44	£1	£103	£20
	Malta	1.3	1.34	1.35	1.48	1.5	1.58	£21,508
		£106	£27	£3	£33	£10	£9
	Bulgaria	-	1.01	1.02	1.03	1.04	1.05	£47,585
			£13,239	£1,245	£577	£250	£217
	Czechia	1.21	1.22	1.23	1.26	1.27	1.33	£36,004
		£4	£59	£4	£17	£76	£20
£20.5, -£50	Norway	1.21	1.28	1.3	1.33	1.34	1.39	£27,986
		£250	£4	£60	£261	£174	£12
£10.5, -£50	Albania	1.12	1.14	1.15	1.19	1.21	1.22	£25,081
		£436	£187	£24	£22	£54	£1
£36.26, -£21	Switzerland	2.16	2.66	2.82	3.1	5.8	-	£6,261
		£8	£16	£28	£2	£9
	Latvia	1.05	1.5	1.8	2.5	2.78	2.8	£15,225
		£4	£52	£78	£268	£2	£14
	Armenia	2.22	2.24	2.5	2.82	3	3.05	£14,690
		£14	£7	£3	£8	£8	£41
	Luxembourg	1.06	3.85	3.9	4.3	4.4	4.5	£8,772
		£132	£5	£10	£4	£8	£54
	Azerbaijan	20	26	27	44	48	50	£1,002
		£11	£26	£6	£29	£26	£6

By:

Bobsyauncle When: 14 May 26 22:00

Personally think
Greece
Bulgaria
Israel
All finish ahead of Finland in televote

Australia for certain ahead in the Jury.

So really depends how close they come to Australia in the Jury on whether they can win

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 22:01

May 14, 2026 -- 9:53PM, Cider wrote:

Interesting Lifter, so they are perceived likely to do well with juries. I can put several ahead of it. I think my primary strategy will be a lay to back

I originally backed it (as in the OP) on the perception that it would be a 200+ jury song.

Which songs would you put ahead of it?

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 22:05

May 14, 2026 -- 10:00PM, Bobsyauncle wrote:

Personally thinkGreeceBulgariaIsrael All finish ahead of Finland in televoteAustralia for certain ahead in the Jury. So really depends how close they come to Australia in the Jury on whether they can win

With Greece televote, I'm not sure. It is fishing in the same pond as Moldova and Bulgaria. Can see those songs sharing the vote, Israel a big poltical vote, etc

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 22:06

Oz
Denmark
Ro
possibly Check, Poland

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 22:09

more of a case that it doesn't stand out to me as being jury gravy, but top half obviously. it is EV and I've been known to be wildly off beam on occasion !

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 22:09

Oh wow, you don't see it doing well at all

By:

FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK When: 14 May 26 22:13

Tosh getting into this ten

By:

Lifter When: 14 May 26 22:15

Fandom pulls through for Cyrpus

By:

Escapee When: 14 May 26 22:16

Top 10 favourites in the to qualify markets all won.

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 22:21

Invariably there's a random that does unexpectedly well with the juries. Poland perhaps

By:

Cider When: 14 May 26 22:55

The way I see it these days is effectively betting on the position after the jury votes are in. Painting by numbers it may be but won't go far wrong laying short ones that will likely do less well with juries and backing big ones that will do well. There is wisdom in the market, ie it will know that Oz are unlikely to do great in the tv, but less than one might anticipate. It's a fascinating challenge anyway and the OR market often sees wild swings on the back of a few jury reveals.

By:

Henry VIII When: 14 May 26 23:03

With Aus I was closing a deal but I don't find it attractive now, what Lifter said about doing well with both jury/tele = Finland, Denmark, what else?

By:

Bobsyauncle When: 15 May 26 05:36

Denmark effectively out of contention after the running order reveal

By:

Bobsyauncle When: 15 May 26 05:41

The general consensus is that Finland have had a bad draw straight after the fan favorite/high energy Moldova.

By:

Lifter When: 15 May 26 07:45

Finland go odds-on and Aus goes to 5.7 area. Greece out to 15s. Bad night for the pro Euro betting commentators

By:

Lifter When: 15 May 26 07:52

Finland 1.90* shortening quickly

By:

Lifter When: 15 May 26 07:56

1.80* has there been a leak or something

By:

Henry VIII When: 15 May 26 07:59

May 15, 2026 -- 5:41AM, Bobsyauncle wrote:

The general consensus is that Finland have had a bad draw straight after the fan favorite/high energy Moldova.

Voting now starts just before the first song and continues until 40 mins after long song. Order importance vanishes. Is it best now to be early? I think this was an excellent change, makes the contest fairer, ironically makes them less able to nobble a country.

By:

Henry VIII When: 15 May 26 08:00

BTW Finland is the fan favorite, not Moldova

By:

Bobsyauncle When: 15 May 26 08:51

Probably worded it wrong. For people watching for the first time, Finland on straight after Moldova is a cause for concern.

By:

Lifter When: 15 May 26 09:06

I'm taking chunks of my Finland profit at these 1.80-1.90 levels. Riding down from 8s, it just makes sense and the value has been captured.

By:

Henry VIII When: 15 May 26 09:48

Moldova is s**t though isn't it? (Might sneak into 10th).

By:

Cider When: 15 May 26 10:14

Yes I don't think anything will stop Finland winning. Just the route to be established. How much of a deficit on Delta will the market tolerate? Probably quite a bit. I've moderated my position, making Finland green, being prepared to get more on if they drift early in the reveal.

By:

Cider When: 15 May 26 10:21

What you don't want is to be overshadowed in the running order with a heavyweight coming immediately after. Moldova is soppy, throwaway nonsense, followed by the much classier Finland. In my opinion, that is a big positive. The other acts I do like to do well (not necessarily ft win) are Bulgaria, Ro and Croatia.