Specials
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***Strictly Come Dancing 2025***
***Strictly Come Dancing 2025***
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Replies: 3,747
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George obviously has a core support. The problem is as the floating voters start switching on r their fave goes out unless he ups is game he won't pick up much more
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Listening to Johannes on ITT, I can see this being a breakthrough dance. Just hope it's not over marked
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Absolutely agree about George. He needs to start improving. I'm hopeful that we'll see that this week. A decent song for the 1st time since his 1st 2 dances.
Plenty of potentially strong dances to come too. As for Alex, excellent music, so should be another good week for her |
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I think Alex is lacking a really popular dance to reprise in the final. Hopefully Saturday is the show stopper she needs.
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Curiously, some significantly increased liquidity entered the OR market this week. Which is obviously a positive.
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I think it's almost certain that it's insider money keeping George at the top. I have always assumed strictly has been safe from this.
Going to take a few weeks of carry over to knock him off the top of the voting then. |
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He looked excellent in the short training clip. So could just be that
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The one I saw he stumbled. His dance is nowhere near a show stopper no matter how well danced.
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It's money on both sides for all the main runners in the market. Pretty rare for a specials market these days, outside of EV.
The market is certainly opposing your analysis of the likely 'TCOs', Bobbasaurus. And the likely voting. |
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About 16%, Alex and Vicky combined.
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They always show them messing up during part of the clip. He looks excellent to my eyes in the first few seconds though. Good hold and posture and movement across the floor
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to Bobby ^^
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Seems I may have underestimated Georges blind support that have followed him into the show. Do I still think he gets beat in the run in? Absolutely.
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At least you know he won't be filling the internet during the final, should he manage to make it that far.
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George closing back in to odds on after his male rival produced one of the best dances ever, while he bopped about on the spot. Crazy times :D
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And the producers want him stuffed
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And they will get their way
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Don't bet on it
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Already have
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George in tails for Saturday apparently. Pimp vibes.
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Shirley Ballas has already prepped us with "I love a man in tails" a week or two ago. Tomorrow they'll be opening up a new front in the push for George campaign. If he does well, and he probably will with what he's been given.
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At this point George would be one of the most bizarre winners ever. Below average dancer, finished bottom around the mid competition point Yes he might have some sort of redemption this weekend with a slow number, but as soon as he faces another party latin he'll be exposed massively again. I still have faith that the producers have a plan for a decent winner. Only problem for me is if it's Karen.
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I've had to add some insurance against Karen
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Quite benevolent of you to leave the 20 up on bf for the chosen one, for other market participants to take. Fair play
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Yep, George in a tail suit
You sense it could be his highest scoring week. Assuming he doesn't mess upKaren looked amazing in the short clip, so makes sense to cover her, Bobby |
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November 3, 2025 12:54 PM GMT
I would be surprised if they managed to get Karen to the final. She is still surely at best the 4th most popular out of the remaining. However if the prods decided to ramp the hell out of her in the remaining weeks then she would have no problem making the final. The issue is she is absolutely rubbish at Ballroom  |
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Been a very entertaining series already
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What's the one consistent Cider?
Odds on fave gets beat |
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It would be crazy not to bring Karen onside at these odds when you see her training vid and yet another consecutive vote winner dance on the horizon
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Funnily enough, confessing you had George covered when he was trading evens (after talking his chances down for the whole series!) was your first flip :p
She is still surely at best the 4th most popular out of the remaining If you have her 4th most popular at best right now, where are you expecting her to be after this next dance? |
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For me she is probably in the top 2, pv. From a consistency perspective. Lewis would likely have broken the top 2 last week. It's unlikely they will be able to maintain that level every week from now. But it did at least make a win for him seem plausible for me, which he wasn't previously. Almost certain finalist anyway, obviously.
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I'd have Karen neck and neck with Alex going into this weekend purely based on the assumption that she is going to be above her on the leaderboard. However, if Alex tops the scoreboard and its genuine then she will become the lead female again. It's all to play for, and as you've said you have to be prepared for all eventualities in specials.
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Indeed, it's just odd to be effectively writing off her chances at circa 20, and a few days later backing her at circa 13, off the back of a bit of training footage.
Personally I'm in the luxury position of winning whatever happens, so long as I don't royally mess it up through greed! Should George fall short then Karen is the obvious beneficiary, and if he doesn't even make the final, Lewis benefits by default being last man standing (assuming Chris doesn't make it). |
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What's your book pay out % then?
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I'm Vicky 40% Alex 40% Lewis 10% Karen 10%
Anyone else, bankrupt |
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Also regarding insider money (which there clearly is)
Is it not probable we get inside money every year, only this year it's more blatant due to a poor dancer being favorite. Hasn't pretty much every favorite from this stage gone on to win the show? The only one I can really think of being an outsider as such was Ore. Having said that, hes not going to be uncatchable at this point or he'd be a lot shorter. |
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They are all different %s and rags large green but there's no value in laying off. In order of weighting for the genuine prospects it's Karen, George, Lewis.
Knowledge in the market, possibly but we've seen it before in specials where a strong opinion in a thin market can stand out. I know for sure that happens in Xmas #1 market, as I'm a market maker there and I bet under and lay over the market as it's the only way to get matched at all. Having said that, there was notable liquidity this week, but on all the key runners, both sides. Important to remember that insider knowledge only affects the prices, not the outcome. The elimination market is suspect, but hardly anything getting matched these days anyway. |