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I also laid some Kaz during and after the dance. I thought it fell very flat, pretty disappointing. Initially the market has not reacted a negatively as my first impression was. We'll see how things are when trading is re-established on Sunday post elimination broadcast.
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VICKY FTW :)
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I alerted you to the price after all :)
Yes in my gambling dotage I do now bet runners I am effectively ruling out. Sorry to repeat stuff (it's an affliction!) but after learning painful lessons, I am not as dogmatic in my positions as I once was. You can see this from the Xmas #1 thread from last year, for example. Cheap insurance is worth it for me, worth sacrificing a little profit to guarantee a nice draw. |
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Feel free to start quoting me on some of my comments regarding Vicky and her treatment in the early weeks. Cos if you don't I feel ill end up re-quoting myself in December :D
Ok, so if they are going to push Vicky for the win they will need to get the other girls out in the next 4 weeks. They will need the following final Lewis George Vicky. |
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Just having a rewatch sober. George's comments were moderate, and won't have won him any new support. Motsi mentioned a little bump. Shirley and Anton picked it up and gave him some real solid praise, but Craig completely debunked the pair of them.
Should drift when the market re opens but might be a few weeks until the floating voters knock him off top spot. |
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You are extremely inconsistent Bobbasaurus. Almost captain flip-flop ;) You were all about Alex this week, until she was exposed again on the live, now back on to Vicky who you had virtually abandoned!
Alex has a comeback narrative baked in for sure, seems almost certain, in the short term. But so many oldsters run out of steam on this, and ultimately that's the way Alex is looking too. It's been disguised well, but she is positively glacial on the floor. Blackpool will likely not be kind to her. Yes Vicky has prod support, that's never been disputed, certainly not by me. But why would a 'tco' be trading at 20+ half way through the series? It's because producers can't engineer a winner on this show from nothing. They can't always stop people from winning either, that they don't want. George would need to be topping the vote to make the final I'd have thought. |
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Incorrect. I've said almost from the start that one of the girls will beat George in the final I've remained firm on that and kept my book accordingly.
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Where did the green for Lewis pop out from? Anyway, obviously that was your book position as you'd been fixated on Vicky for the early part of the series. But your commentary had switched to Alex.
eg Bobbasauras • November 3, 2025 7:25 AM GMT George at 2.5 and Alex at 6.5 is genuinely one of the most bizarre set of misplaced odds this show has ever seen. I assume (yes risky) that you mean Alex was ridiculously too big at 6.5 (and George too short at 2.5). |
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Just for clarity, my view on Vicky's chances on the OR haven't changed. The big drift this week offered up the opportunity of cheap green on a runner being supported by the producers, that I flagged on here. Nothing had changed to have caused it. It wasn't massively different to the trading after they had made her the table topper this week to be fair (and a couple of others flopped).
Plus, there's always a chance on this of someone getting crocked out of the show. |
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Why would tco be trading at 20 mid series?
Because there is insider trading at play. I told you weeks ago if we went on scores and comments Vicky's and Georges odds would have swapped. Vicky has left George behind in the dancing stakes, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon, especially once George goes back to Latin. I have merely flipped between Alex and Vicky in my thought process based on the events evolving over the last few weeks. But my book remains the same, and I'm hoping either one of them wins. If Vicky can tone down her reactions for the run in, and she continues to get the support, along with the journey narrative AND continues to pull it off in the performance, then of course she can win. I doubt she's anything more than about 10% off the top of the vote this weekend. I disagree with you about the producers influence, in some series there are runaway contestants they can't stop. This series doesn't have any. I reckon they could easily engineer a win for anyone left in with the exception of Bal, Lavoix, and Amber. Lewis would take a bit of work but it's doable. |
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You didn't take the 20+ as there is insider trading?
As I stated, if there is (a big big if), it doesn't change the outcomes/results, only the trading. It follows, if you think the market is reflecting the actual voting, then George must have been leading it by a margin (up to yesterday at least). So why would they then be misplaced odds? You can't have it both ways. If Vicky was so far behind in the voting that she was being laid to 20+, that would make her a very unlikely winner, wouldn't it? |
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No because she was being matched at 10s last night.
Of course last weekend could have been a really poor return for her (even though she avoided the dance off from a vulnerable position) when you consider all the attention was on Lewis, and Vicky went completely under the radar. This weekend is a completely different ball game. She topped the leaderboard and more importantly DESERVED to be there. This will never happen for George so he won't pick up any floating support other than his Tiktok army that have been voting for him on mass since day one. |
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The new graphs aren't without bugs, the 24h one appears to show 12.5 was the lowest matched, and out to 14 at the suspend.
Right, so if the 'insider' lays her out again during early trading next week, you may as well admit defeat? |
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Not necessarily because there are still **** loads of free votes up for grabs week on week as popular contestants get knocked out at the business end.
But yes I agree that if she's back around the 20 mark then it's pretty much game over. |
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Personally I'll be expect her to come in to single figures again
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Vicky moves back into top female odds. However, insider movement normally takes a day or 2 to follow on
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The ds sleuths have surfaced this.
https://www.tiktok.com/@reverie.clips/video/7536360305069280534 |
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If the final 3 are the top 3 in the betting market then a Vicky win is very much the plan.
Lewis will be the best dancer, but an obvious ringer, leaving the prods to hammer home the message that Vicky is the most improved and the obvious journey winner. |
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George on the drift :)
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LPM 2.08?
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Was excited to to get 3 or 4s then
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Give it time
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You are easily pleased Bobbasauras! When does the inside money show up?
The trading broadly reflects what happened on the show, though Karen and Vicky are shorter than it warranted, probably picking up the slack from Alex. |
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What price will she need to be before you start to consider inside money?
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I don't follow it at all, but I believe the detail of the Thorp poll was only made public after the voting was closed on Saturday. Vicky topped the poll, gamblers are suckers for a poll, so maybe that's why 14 was still available at the suspension. Anyway, for me it's not the price that would indicate knowledge of the vote, it would be clumsy trading. Now, both George and Lewis have had £3K lumps to lay in this market. I'm not saying that was informed, but that's the type of clumsy trading you would likely see from an unsophisticated player with an advantage.
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It's normally around now that the insider stars affecting the price. I'm not saying the current price is a sign that she's topping the vote, more an indicator that she's bang in the mix.
You asked if I would concede game over if she drifted, so surely with her shortening considerably we now have to take her chances of winning seriously? |
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No, as like I said, she had a good week. After drifting markedly for no reason. So it's right that she shortened.
George being backed in after having a very poor week last week was unusual. His price returned to what it was before the ccc disaster. If she drifted after topping the table, first 10s and obvious prod favour, and you think someone has access to the voting. Yes naturally, that would be effectively GO. |
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It's commonplace on IAC now, runners have great shows and drift. Runners have poor shows and get backed in. Huge spikes, positive and negative, with nothing happening. Plus clumsy trades. It screams insider trading, as there is insider trading! Of course you can still play, especially before any voting results, and try and second guess the patterns. But it makes the normal way of trading a reality show unviable.
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I expect the prods to go full throttle on her now. They've played the long game and Georges lead will be very slight if anything at all.
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Vickys price continues to plummet
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Cat is evidently smitten, they all love George lol. It will be a wet Saturday evening, not just the tears. Seriously, George's VTs have been predominately irreverent so far, this looks like being a gear change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBGdaItFF2I |
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Which means absolutely nothing when he's mid table in the dancing stakes
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Oops! I now know where I've been going wrong for the last 18 years :)
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Name me one single winner that's followed Georges trajectory. I'll wait.
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Presumably Chris last year. I know Bill was bottom of the table at least once. I literally could not care what the specific scores are, or their position on the table. The narrative counts, first 10 etc. But position and score is only relevant for dance off jeopardy.
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Not really, cos you at least need to be the best of the non dancers to have a chance of winning. In the publics eyes there are at least 2 non dancers that are better than George, even though Karen has had dance training.
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