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Xmas No1 market

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Replies: 1,571
By:
armagnac
When: 27 Nov 23 20:37
the snowball is small Sad
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 27 Nov 23 20:37
How's the tull doin cider?
By:
Cider
When: 27 Nov 23 20:41
Under 30!
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 27 Nov 23 20:43
Poor.  But that sounds a lot more than zero
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 27 Nov 23 20:44
On the missus's xmas cassette it was like the first track, so in 2003 it would have been top 10 on streams :(

Behind the waitresses
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 27 Nov 23 21:47
Any sign of Adam faith, lonely pup in a Christmas shop?
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 28 Nov 23 07:41
Another slab of cash, at 3 this time
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 28 Nov 23 08:05
This could be bookies yer knarr,   hills went to 4/6 so they must have been raking it in
By:
Cider
When: 28 Nov 23 09:21
very random if it's not a striking consultant
By:
Cider
When: 28 Nov 23 09:22
Jack back to the top on spoty, but not showing the rapid growth of last week.
By:
Cider
When: 28 Nov 23 17:28
it's happening army Grin


By:
armagnac
When: 28 Nov 23 17:30
no way Laugh
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 28 Nov 23 17:44
The birdy song
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 19:20
Wed mids

Jack 32130

Wham 18219
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 19:38
Are the pogues showing much?   Assume the plan was a download but they'd surely need a few streams too
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 19:47
This is the thing, the market is extraordinarily baffling. As far as I can identify, there is no campaign, no linked charity cause, nada. And they are only heavy favourites due to the much publicised health travails of Shane, and the assumption there would be this collective effort, that currently doesn't exist to engineer enough people to be downloading the track at the right time to make it Xmas number 1. My personal view is that is a stretch and a half.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 19:55
You just can't imagine pogues fans being organised. I think of them all as like army :)

In a nice way obviously
By:
armagnac
When: 29 Nov 23 20:05
i'll have you know i'm organised mess Happy
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:05
There's very little active interest in dated groups these days. Over the years I've played this market I have to anticipate what people who don't know what they are doing will do. And that means if Shane was to pass before the chart week that counts, they would be pushed in to odds on. So I have to be prepared for that possibility.

To give a flavour of where they are at, on spoty yesterday they were #25 on 171K. With Wham 390K (#3) and Mariah 378K (#4). So you could make an argument that they have a head start to win on downloads should that event happen, due to residual streaming. But it would need a perfect storm, or rather an imperfect storm as I put it.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:06
I think the bets are from vey vey drunk irish people on the hs and what we see on here is bookies covering
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:09
Very easy story to pass around, shane is on his last legs and it's an absolute cert for no1
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:12
Yes it would be great to get some intel on what type of turnover they get from this event from losing accounts, and which no hoper runners. It is of course typical specials that the market basically hinges on whether a human dies at the right time for people backing that runner. The other angle is that there has always been a primary runner that makes the market. XF for many years, then Hoyle. So this year it is Pogues.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:13
Could even be restricted to a small number of shops in kilburn :) 

Bookies are risk averse creatures so pass it on to us
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:16
I spent a fair time in PP Kilburn funnily enough. They've sat it out so far.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:18
It would definitely explain why it appears as lumps here instead of a flow
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:23
There is a public perception that the song is more popular than it is actually reflected in the charts. Obviously it has had some bad publicity due to the meatballs nonsense, but when I first started looking at these markets it was the #1 Xmas song from memory, vying with MC. It's now just a another Xmas song in the middle of the rather large streaming pack.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:24
I just layed some sidemen for old times sake
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 29 Nov 23 20:25
The whole market feels like a timewarp
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:27
Was hovering over that earlier myself. Last year's effort dropped 4th Dec (Sunday). I don't expect them to do one this year though.
By:
Cider
When: 29 Nov 23 20:40
The next crucial data point imv is this w/e coming. Especially, can wham or mariah touch a million on spoty saturday.
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 08:55
Taylor chucks in a Wednesday curveball (from the vault!).
By:
bearcub
When: 30 Nov 23 11:55
Shane RIP
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 12:00
the heavy handed player was an insider, what people will do for a bit of money Laugh
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 12:00
the game is on Cool
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 30 Nov 23 12:36
Lol

Yep, released from hospital to die at home

I did think that was possible but gambling got the better of me
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 13:00
Yes it was something that I was always factoring in, even though the less likely one of the two transpired. He was still being backed on oddschecker last night, and this morning which is when I saw the rte article posted.

But this is just the beginning. The news cycle moves on so quickly. We'll get some insight into how the news transacts into actual chart data very quickly. Initially with the live iTunes chart.

Apparently Piers Morgan is starting a campaign. The remaining Pogues will be pleased!
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 13:01
Plus of course spoty numbers tomoz.
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 13:22
4 @ iTunes and last time of checking
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 13:23
which is maybe around 300
By:
Cider
When: 30 Nov 23 13:30
There's no such thing as pre sales for this as well. My balls are right on the line here, but I am still against it. Lots and lots of noise as could be expected, but how much of that will convert into sales data for the important days in 15 days' time. I'm thinking, not much.
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