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*** Eurovision Grand Final IR Thread ****
*** Eurovision Grand Final IR Thread ****
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Replies: 1,252
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The usual shenanigans between Azer & Armenia....all 12 judges scoring the other country last on jury score,and both televotes last also.
________________________ To be fair, can you blame anyone for scoring either of these songs poorly!!  |
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Interesting that the bellwether countries of Latvia and UK both gave the winner 12 points. If either ever voted first what betting fun......
2 disqualified countries votes I see...still half asleep so don't yet know if any ramifications re result? |
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I said yesterday Latvia is your friend. five years on trot and 4/5 for UK.
The Guardians of Fair Play - Latvia |
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Yes good spot
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Azer actually got to number 1 in the Armenian iTunes a week or two ago. Maybe some kind of funny PR business.
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Not disqualified then?
.http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/eurovision-2015-votes-disqualified-montenegro-5751425 |
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But I'm sure the SF momentum point is valid.
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I didn't say it was fatal to chances Cider...just detrimental.
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Cider just likes to keep me lucid...even when I am already
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Germany's invisibility didn't help them this year
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But Satellite had loads of momentum from my recollection, Lena was the talk of the contest. If Italy had taken part in a semi, the result would have been the same.
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We can take learnings after the result, obviously, but there's often way too much overthinking and backfitting imv.
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You only have to look at itunes to see the importance of visibility. Sweden jumped after semi and Italy after final. True it wouldn't have made a difference re Italy but we are talking generalities. And this isn't backfitting someone made the point about momentum on here before the final...and they are right.
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...and isn't learning from results what keeps us ahead collectively?
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It's backfitting because you're fitting the result to your hypothesis. So Italy wins, and you would say the semi momentum thing is a red herring?
iTunes is related to the pv. Italy 'won' the pv. It was beaten because it didn't win the juries over. |
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Nah
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So to be clear
 ..you are saying not being in a semi has no impact whatsoever in any circumstances on any country in any year on the size of their pv? |
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My view is that it doesn't have a material impact on the result.
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We will agree to disagree though the evidence says different imo. There is a direct link between itunes and result and it has been proved visibility increases itune ratings...you are saying chicken and egg I'd rather say egg....anyway Henry agrees and he's the dog's bollox on here really.
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There is no evidence.
If you're saying a semi performance increases iTunes sales before the final, of course it does. If you're saying itunes sales influence the result, of course they don't. |
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Some people may correlate iTunes sales to the pv. And if you use that measure you'd have to factor in a non semi performing country. But that's another subject entirely.
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I can't agree that not having a level playing field makes no difference whatsoever...the only question should be how much difference it makes. Even you agree because you say it has no "material" impact which is something more than "no" impact. At the margins in any given year it could therefore make a difference. Can you lucidify and confirm you are saying "no" difference ever?
At the risk of stretching the analogy latecomers to BB generally do less well...and would someone win XF if they missed the first 6 weeks? |
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In a way it helps the shrewdies as we have to factor all this in.
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lol my bet came in
serbia to be top 10 f00king crawled over the line Laugh _____________ Was my favourite moment of the night when I was sweating on my Serbia Top 10 bet and then thanks to the balls up Georgia came on last to vote and could't vote for itself to scupper that 10th spot. |
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my angle was not so much the pv being influenced by semis as the jury vote, as in either the jury members feel that they are more familiar with the semi final songs or subconciously semi final songs feel as though they have earned the right to be in the final perhaps?
the jury are making their votes after the dress rehearsal, (my understanding) which immediately follows the semis, so even though the pre qualifiers get practice time the judges have had more chance to assess the semi finalists and see them in a competitive light we can gauge pv from downloads and hits on various sites but is human nature in the jury voting slightly different because they are closer to the action / competitors maybe even getting the chance to meet and talk to them off stage thus changing their voting? one to ponder for another year though, wd winners last night |
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Lena romped home without a semi performance.
______ She was the outlier. 2010 - UK finished bottom; Spain near the bottom and France underperformed in mid-table despite trading as a dangerous outsider (in the 30s IIRC) on the final night. Generally the same pattern (other than 2012) with most of the big five struggling year after year. Hell, even the might Sweden struggled in 2013 when they didn't have a SF to go through. The Big Five should gang up on the EBU and DEMAND to be in the semis. |
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Yup! I felt Sweden wouldn't get good jury votes and felt very sweet on it now winning the public vote. Seems the 3rd most popular song won by 50+ points, which is quite a margin, all thanks to the jury! To me the market knew!
________ The betting market was so well tuned this year. Got the 1-2-3 bang on (a-la-2012). The fact no patriotic money coming in on UK stunned me. 2010-14 UK were an auto lay for me every year. Honestly thought buying at 90 was easy money when UK came down under 20 at some point. Market completely knew it was a dud. Took me two months to accept it. Top Ten market was well tuned by the end. No Georgia bombing at 1.5 (2013) France at 1.1 (2011) |
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All of what elise said at foot of Page 29 is bang on. Auto qualifying is a death knell for winning and maybe why we never have countries winning back to back any more
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The market acted like Sweden couldn't really lose. Absolutely convinced insiders were rife and they knew Sweden had hacked up with the jury vote leaving them pretty much unstoppable.
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Why is automatic qualification a bad thing? Sateillite and Grande Amoure never performed in the semis yet both won the public vote convincingly.
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All we can learn is that the market was rife with insiders. Most people on this forum believed that Sweden were not going to win the public vote and many thought they wouldn't be liked by the juries (based on copyright issues and him being a bit of a plonker). However, the market acted like defeat was all but impossible and whenever he drifted he came straight back in again, almost like people knew his jury backing made him all but unstoppable.
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By this I mean I would eat my hat if the market acted the same had there been no jury voting. I strongly believe Sweden would have drifted to 4.0+ and Russia and Italy would have been sub 4.0.
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Glad Russia didn't win. Not that I don't like the song or anything but her performance last night was not good at all, she looked like she was having a panic attack and her emotions were all over the place, would have been a travesty for her to win when there were so many flawless other performances.
Latvia and Belgium can hold their heads high. Loic especially, he comes across as really struggling with his English/struggling to sing in the language with his accent, so for him to be performing this week to such a high standard and achieve that placing for a country with little to no voting bloc is incredible |
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Why is automatic qualification a bad thing? Satellite and Grande Amoure never performed in the semis yet both won the public vote
________ That's just two songs out of 30+ since 2010. Add Italy 2011 to the mix and you have 3 Top 3s out of 34 acts since 2010. It's the fact that year after year France, UK and Spain are in the bottom few. Even a pretty decent known act like Cascada finished about 18th. Decent act like Blue with a solid song finished 11th - surely Top Ten with double exposure. |
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Don't buy it at all. Italy romped home last night by a distance all over Europe and most had never heard it before!
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Good call re Belgium, flemstar.
I'll throw Israel into the hat as well for an act that did well despite being friendless. No qualifiers since 2010; generally disliked country politically; an act that had potential to be looked down on yet a nice payout at 5/2 or better for Top Ten. |
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Don't buy it at all. Italy romped home last night by a distance all over Europe and most had never heard it before!
_____ Look at the bigger picture How did France, Spain, Austria Germany and UK do? All terribly Look at France 2012 - great song.....but it bombed. |
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One could argue that it's due to complacency with the auto-qulaifiers. My understanding is that Germany were fed up with repeatedly doing badly and put a lot of effort into Lena's year. Funnily enough, they won as a result having pre-qualified.
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