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*** Strictly Pricewatch ***
*** Strictly Pricewatch ***
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Saturday morning of the eighth elimination weekend (at Blackpool)
Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.53 - 1.54 (shortening all week, 1.53 lowest) Karim Zeroual..................5.5 - 5.9 (has been matched up to around 7 this week) Alex Scott.......................19.5 - 20 Saffron Barker.................20 - 21 Emma Barton..................23 - 27 Michelle Visage................32 - 44 Chris Ramsey..................100 - 150 Amount matched £239,526 Back 103%, Lay 98.3% Eighth Elimination high street prices - 4/6 Chris, 3/1 Emma B, 8/1 Michelle, 9/1 Alex, 16/1 Saffron, 66/1 Karim, 100/1 Kelvin Top Male - 1/3 Kelvin, 9/4 Karim, 50/1 Chris Top Female - 5/2 Saffron, 5/2 Alex, 5/2 Emma B, 4/1 Michelle |
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Monday morning after eighth elimination - Michelle Visage
Chris danced first and after being praised and scored 33 he quickly went from odds on to odds against for elimination, briefly matched as high as 5, before shortening back over the show as everyone else (apart from Michelle) also did well. Only after Michelle was scored bottom of the leaderboard did he drift back out again. He was matched between 6 and 1.84 (some small amounts lower) with LPM 5.4. Michelle, dancing second last with high expectations of her Vogue, fell way short and quickly shortened to 2s then odds on. She was matched between 14 (+£10 at 26) and 1.25 with LPM 1.36 After Chris did well, one by one others came into contention for elimination before also doing well. Emma danced second and was matched down to 2, Alex danced third and was matched down to 2.1 & Saffron danced fifth and was matched down to 2.5 Kelvin & Karim top scored with 39, Emma next on 37 Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.48 - 1.56 Karim Zeroual..................5.4 - 5.6 Emma Barton..................19 - 20 Alex Scott.......................18.5 - 21 Saffron Barker.................26 - 30 (was in the dance off) Chris Ramsey..................44 - 85 Amount matched £249,319 Back 103.9%, Lay 96.2% |
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Saturday morning of the ninth elimination weekend
Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.42 - 1.45 Karim Zeroual..................6 - 6.6 Emma Barton..................13 - 16.5 Alex Scott.......................25 - 30 Saffron Barker.................36 - 80 Chris Ramsey..................65 - 90 Amount matched £255,115 Back 104.1%, Lay 95.9% Ninth Elimination high street prices - 11/8 Chris, 2/1 Saffron, 5/1 Emma B, 5/1 Alex, 33/1 Karim, 100/1 Kelvin Top Male - 1/3 Kelvin, 5/2 Karim, 25/1 Chris Top Female - 6/4 Emma B, 7/4 Alex, 9/4 Saffron |
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Monday morning after ninth elimination - Saffron Barker
Saffron danced first and after receiving a lowly 26 she shortened to odds on to go. She was matched between 4.1 and 1.41 which was the LPM. Her LPM in the Outright was 50 Alex, also scoring 26, was matched between 6.8 and 3 (small amounts below), LPM 3.2 Emma was matched between 7.6 and 3.5, LPM 6.4 Chris, original fav to go again, was matched as low as 2 (+£4 at 1.91 & £20 at 1.8) and up to 5.8 with small amounts higher, up to 23, LPM 22 Kelvin & Karim again both top scored, 38 this time Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.41 - 1.47 (LPM at suspension 1.43) Karim Zeroual..................8.2 - 10 (shortened to 4s after dancing in 2nd spot, LPM at suspension 5, obviously higher now after being Bottom 2) Emma Barton..................10.5 - 12 (LPM at suspension 16.5) Alex Scott.......................23 - 34 (LPM at suspension 40) Chris Ramsey..................22 - 25 (LPM at suspension 30 Amount matched £259,276 Back 102.6%, Lay 93.3% |
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Saturday morning of the tenth elimination weekend (musicals weekend)
Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.42 - 1.48 Emma Barton..................7.6 - 8.4 (shortened over the week) Karim Zeroual..................8 - 8.8 Chris Ramsey..................25 - 29 Alex Scott.......................34 - 40 Amount matched £267,192 Back 104.1%, Lay 96.8% Tenth Elimination high street prices - 11/10 Chris, 21/10 Alex, 5/1 Emma B, 8/1 Karim, 66/1 Kelvin Top Male - 2/11 Kelvin, 9/2 Karim, 12/1 Chris Top Female - 4/6 Emma B, 6/5 Alex |
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Monday morning after tenth elimination - Alex Scott
Chris danced first, scored 28, briefly went odds on but then drifted after Alex danced second and only scored 27. They were both trading around the evens mark for a while but then Alex when odds on and ever shorter Alex was matched between 3.3 & 1.4 with LPM 1.41. Her LPM in the outright was 110 Chris was matched between 3.3 & 1.6 with LPM that 3.3 Karim received the first 40 of the series with Kelvin & Emma both scoring 39 Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.42 - 1.46 (shortened from 1.5 pre dance to 1.4 after scored, LPM at suspension 1.49) Karim Zeroual..................7.2 - 8 (shortened after dancing, after receiving 40 briefly hit 5 then drifted to high 5s. LPM at suspension 5.6) Emma Barton..................7.4 - 7.8 (8.6 pre dance, then 7s then hit 6.4, LPM at suspension 7) Chris Ramsey..................55 - 75 (LPM at suspension 38) Amount matched £273,857 Back 100.8%, Lay 95.1% |
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Top Female market, won by Emma, had £6,040 matched and doesn't look pretty for backers. Lowest prices matched:
Emma Barton 1.51 £10 1.61 £15 1.63 £4 2.00 £42 2.02 £31 2.04 £4 2.12 £15 2.14 £4 2.24 £4 2.36 £86 2.40 £20 Alex Scott 2.00 £20 2.02 £16 2.12 £4 2.22 £20 2.40 £22 2.60 £8 2.68 £8 2.70 £4 3.00 £14 Saffron Barker 2.00 £40 2.80 £10 2.82 £100 2.84 £4 3.10 £6 3.25 £143 3.30 £12 3.50 £76 Michelle Visage 2.00 £296 2.10 £786 2.12 £165 2.14 £64 2.16 £100 2.18 £20 2.20 £90 2.22 £13 2.38 £213 2.40 £198 2.42 £79 2.44 £48 2.46 £8 2.48 £24 2.50 £344 |
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Saturday morning, semi final tonight
Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher.................1.41 - 1.45 (1.36 been matched during the week) Emma Barton...................5.9 - 6.2 (shortened over the week) Karim Zeroual..................7.8 - 8.6 Chris Ramsey..................80 - 200 Amount matched £291,434 Back 103.1%, Lay 97.8% Eleventh Elimination best high street prices - 1/4 Chris, 9/2 Emma B, 10/1 Karim, 40/1 Kelvin Top Male - 1/5 Kelvin, 7/2 Karim, 16/1 Chris |
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Monday morning after eleventh elimination - Chris Ramsey
Chris was always longs odds on to go and was well adrift on the leaderboard, scoring 54 points He was matched between 1.4 and 1.06 with LPM 1.1 Kelvin top scored on 77 (receiving the second 40 of the series), Karim 74, Emma 67 Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher..................1.33 - 1.35 (1.4s pre show, briefly higher, 1.35 after receiving 40 for his first dance, 1.31 end of second dance, 1.4 during judges criticism but then lower after receiving 37, LPM at suspension 1.31) Emma Barton...................4.8 - 5 (backed down to 5 pre show, drifted after only scoring 31, 7.6 pre second dance, back to 5s afterwards, LPM at suspension 6.2, opened shorter last night after not being B2) Karim Zeroual...................19 - 22 (7s pre show, price quite erratic during the show in a weak market, trading 6s up to 10, opened much higher after being B2 again) Amount matched £303,995 Back 102.6%, Lay 98.6% |
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Saturday morning, FINAL TONIGHT
The market has been, a little surprisingly, fairly volatile this week Kelvin had drifted to 1.47 on Tuesday before shortening back. Yesterday morning, a lump of over 2k went up backing at 1.4, taking all day to get matched and afterwards his price has drifted out again overnight Emma has shortened all early week, 3.7 by Tuesday evening, 3.5 even been matched, but then drifted yesterday morning, 4.3 at least matched, was still 4 to back yesterday 8pm but has shortened considerable overnight, 3.45 lowest & LPM Karim was still trading 19 - 20 yesterday morning but then drifted dramatically yesterday and more overnight, 46 has been matched Current prices: Kelvin Fletcher..................1.47 - 1.48 Emma Barton....................3.25 - 3.45 Karim Zeroual...................30 - 42 Amount matched £335,721 Back 103%, Lay 98.9% |
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Winner - KELVIN FLETCHER
Dead Heat for 2nd - Emma Barton / Karim Zeroual The market had the correct three finalists after the first live show! (although that wasn't always the case subsequently) The final was one show and ran from 7:05pm to 9:10pm with just the three finalists after Will Bayley's withdrawal mid series due to injury 7pm - Kelvin 1.42, Emma 3.6, Karim 40s, £363,063 matched (roughly half of the previous year) 1st Dance - Karim - hit 30 after scored 2nd Dance - Emma - 3.65 pre dance, 3.35 end of dance then 3.25 but 3.45 after Craig mentioned a synch issue 3rd Dance - Kelvin - 1.46 pre dance, similar by end but 1.40 after scored 7:41pm - after 1st round (Judges' Pick) - Kelvin 1.44, Emma 3.5, Kelvin 34, £388,537 matched 7:41pm - LINES OPENED (6 votes were available online) 4th Dance - Karim - low 30s 5th Dance - Emma - 3.45 pre dance, 3.6 during judges comments, 3.95 after Craig only giving an 8 6th Dance - Kelvin - 1.4 pre VT, 1.36 as dance starts, 1.33 end of dance then 1.27, 1.14 briefly matched plus small amounts below as judges eulogised, 1.2 end of judges comments, 1.17 after scored 8:09pm - after 2nd round (Showdances) - Kelvin 1.17, Emma 7.4, Karim 40s, £410,052 matched 7th Dance - Karim - 48 pre dance, 42 end of dance, 34 after scored and tears for the umpteenth time 8th Dance - Emma - 7.8 pre dance, 7 end of dance then 6 before back to 7 after more Craig negative remarks 9th Dance - Kelvin - 1.19 pre dance, 1.17 end of dance 8:39pm - after 3rd round (Favourite Dances) - Kelvin 1.17, Emma 8s, Karim 40s, £444,795 matched 8:51pm - LINES CLOSED (but Betfair didn't suspend for another 5 minutes) - last prices matched Kelvin 1.18, Emma 7.4, Karim 40, final amount matched £454,048 Lowest & highest matched for Kelvin Fletcher (highs matched pre live show, lows matched during the final) 1.10 £22 1.12 £222 1.14 £1,766 1.15 £1,976 1.16 £8,238 1.17 £15,503 1.18 £7,533 1.19 £2,092 1.20 £3,016 ---------------------------- 10.0 £254 10.5 £54 11.0 £131 11.5 £60 12.0 £114 12.5 £20 19.0 £14 55.0 £1 Lowest & highest matched for Emma Barton (highs matched around week 8, lows matched on the Saturday morning of the final) 3.20 £17 3.25 £1,005 3.30 £172 3.35 £375 3.40 £704 3.45 £1,449 3.50 £3,114 3.55 £1,224 3.60 £2,259 ------------------------------ 25 £210 26 £40 27 £24 28 £62 29 £63 30 £28 32 £13 36 £29 Lowest matched for Karim Zeroual (lows matched week 2 to 3) 3.15 £20 3.20 £4 3.25 £94 3.30 £164 3.35 £349 3.40 £497 3.45 £483 3.50 £599 3.55 £611 3.60 £763 3.65 £744 3.70 £1,266 Lowest matched for Chris Ramsey 18 £20 18.5 £34 19 £56 19.5 £66 20 £250 21 £89 22 £111 23 £236 24 £372 25 £363 Lowest matched for Alex Scott (lows matched pre 1st live show) 5.0 £59 5.3 £18 5.4 £18 5.5 £168 5.6 £262 5.7 £218 5.8 £274 5.9 £807 6.0 £443 6.2 £2,400 Lowest matched for Saffron Barker (lows matched pre 1st live show) 8.2 £6 8.6 £41 9.0 £9 9.2 £7 9.4 £92 9.6 £62 9.8 £18 10.0 £275 10.5 £902 11.0 £646 11.5 £242 12.0 £148 Lowest matched for Michelle Visage (lows matched during the week 3 show) 8.0 £4 8.2 £31 8.4 £4 8.8 £12 9.0 £158 9.2 £72 9.4 £236 9.6 £198 9.8 £439 10 £892 Lowest matched for Mike Bushell 25 £4 32 £16 34 £11 36 £20 38 £36 40 £123 42 £65 44 £138 46 £109 Lowest matched for Emma Weymouth 15.5 £52 16.0 £292 16.5 £67 17.0 £137 17.5 £218 18.0 £90 18.5 £238 19.0 £642 Lowest matched for Will Bayley 14.0 £6 14.5 £29 16.0 £42 17.0 £4 17.5 £19 18.0 £10 19.5 £55 20.0 £277 21.0 £95 22.0 £36 23.0 £164 24.0 £750 Lowest matched for Catherine Tyldesley (lows matched pre 1st live show) 4.0 £159 8.0 £72 8.2 £143 8.4 £27 8.6 £85 8.8 £154 9.0 £70 9.2 £244 9.4 £238 9.6 £475 9.8 £384 Lowest matched for David James 26 £9 27 £18 28 £4 29 £20 32 £10 40 £8 42 £3 44 £19 46 £22 Lowest matched for Dev Griffin (lows matched during the 1st live show) 10.0 £2 10.5 £3 11.0 £222 11.5 £98 12.0 £494 12.5 £658 13.0 £828 13.5 £426 14.0 £501 14.5 £630 15.0 £1,079 Lowest matched for Anneka Rice 29 £10 36 £20 38 £30 42 £21 44 £90 46 £3 48 £52 50 £135 Lowest matched for James Cracknell 14.5 £12 15.0 £189 15.5 £96 16.0 £96 16.5 £72 17.0 £260 17.5 £118 |
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Horse
fabulous stuff each week well done you. You say about half was Matched compared with last year. Why do you think such a drastic difference when every year it's exactly the same thing, that being everyone's betting on a dance competition on the telly. So why such a drop do you think? Cheers |
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I don't know LOU, it was a surprise to me how much the liquidity dropped, but it's a continuing trend in most Specials markets these days plus bookies offering less and less side markets and the ones they do being very erratic with their appearances.
The liquidity during the live shows was terrible, spreads like 14 - 29, or 5.2 - 7.8 during the shows with very little getting matched. Betfair have dropped the Bottom 2 market, rightly so, some weeks like £4 was getting matched. The "big players", whoever they are, just don't seem interested in playing Strictly, in stark contrast though with IAC this year which was as busy as ever so not sure why such a difference with this year's liquidity trends on these two shows. Strictly - final amounts matched: 2014 - £565,245 2015 - £878,966 2016 - £942,609 2017 - £881,566 2018 - £891,977 2019 - £454,048 |
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Thanks horse
Yes I can't put my finger on why? Like I said same show every year so whereas we can understand it may drop a bit but by about 50%? No logic to that whatsoever. Oh well I did my bit so I'm happy enough I suppose. Cheers |
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NEW SERIES - STRICTLY COME DANCING 18 - (COVID RAVAGED) AUTUMN 2020
This year's participants started to be announced on 1st Sept with the reduced line-up of 12 completed on the 4th, and what a very poor line-up it is. With 4 special shows, featuring past highlights, starting to air this Saturday (19th Sept), the first live show is expected to air on 24th Oct, perhaps with the pairing reveal show airing 17th Oct. Betfair prices: Maisie Smith.....................3.1 - 3.15 (ignoring small amounts, matched between 3.55 & 3) HRVY................................6.8 - 7.8 (9 & 4.9) Max George......................6.8 - 8.8 (7 & 5.1) Jamie Laing......................8.4 - 8.6 (11 & 6.4) Nicola Adams...................9.8 - 11.5 (12 & 6.4) Caroline Quentin..............12 - 19 (big gamble, £15 matched at 95 then between 65 & 13) Jason Bell........................20 - 21 (32 & 13) Clara Amfo.......................25 - 38 (27 & 21) JJ Chalmers.....................30 - 34 (44 & 32) Ranvir Singh....................50 - 100 (75 & 40) Bill Bailey.........................65 - 70 (130 & 50) Jacqui Smith...................110 - 250 Amount matched £5,551. Back 108.9%, Lay 94.7% |
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A Pricewatch? What a welcome return!
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Launch show tonight with first live show next Saturday. The pairings reveal have not been leaked anywhere, as far as I know.
Current prices: Maisie Smith.....................3.25 - 3.95 (small amounts have been matched down to 2.74 and £32 matched at 5.9 somehow) Max George......................6.8 - 10.5 (4.6 been matched) Jamie Laing......................8 - 8.8 HRVY................................9 - 9.8 (drifted when news broke he had Covid 19. 11 highest matched) Nicola Adams...................9.2 - 10 (13 been matched, shortened last couple of days) Caroline Quentin..............13 - 13.5 (11 now lowest matched) Jason Bell........................17 - 18 Clara Amfo.......................21 - 27 (30 been matched) JJ Chalmers.....................15.5 - 32 (25 now lowest matched) Ranvir Singh....................36 - 46 Bill Bailey.........................55 - 70 Jacqui Smith...................110 - 250 Amount matched £13,046. Back 110.2%, Lay 90.2% |
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Monday morning, after the launch show.
Prices were moving during the show as the 12 celebrities partners were revealed but then the group dance at the end of the show caused some drastic changes. Current prices: Maisie Smith.....................2.94 - 3 (shortened to near 3 during the show, lower after the group dance, 2.66 been matched) Max George......................6.8 - 7 (12 matched during the show, shortened back yesterday) HRVY................................6.6 - 7.2 (shortened during the show and group dance) Jason Bell........................11 - 12 (had shortened during Saturday, as low as 8.2 pre show) Clara Amfo.......................14 - 14.5 (was getting matched around 15 during the show, lowest of 12 matched since) Jamie Laing......................17 - 18 (drifted during group dance and further since, 19 highest matched) Nicola Adams...................18 - 19 (drifted during show then more during group dance and since. 25 been matched) Caroline Quentin..............18.5 - 19.5 (drifted during show then more during group dance) Bill Bailey.........................22 - 23 (still around 50 pre dance, plunge during, 17.5 lowest matched, settled low 20s) Ranvir Singh....................75 - 80 (drifted during group dance and since. Has a sweet dog though) JJ Chalmers.....................75 - 95 (20 matched during the show, big drift during/since group dance) Jacqui Smith...................250 - 500 Amount matched £39,556. Back 104.6%, Lay 99.5% |
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Saturday morning of the first live show
Current prices: Maisie Smith.....................2.98 - 3 HRVY................................6.4 - 6.6 Max George......................8.4 - 8.6 Clara Amfo.......................12 - 12.5 (low of 10 been matched) Nicola Adams...................15 - 15.5 Jason Bell........................15 - 17.5 Jamie Laing......................14.5 - 19.5 (high of 21 been matched) Caroline Quentin..............18 - 18.5 Bill Bailey.........................18.5 - 20 (low of 16 been matched) Ranvir Singh....................75 - 80 JJ Chalmers.....................80 - 120 Jacqui Smith...................260 - 550 Amount matched £49,746. Back 103.6%, Lay 98.1% First Elimination (which will be next weekend) - 11/10 Jacqui, 7/2 Ranvir, 6/1 JJ, 20/1 Bill, 20/1 Jason, 20/1 Caroline, 20/1 Nicola, 25/1 Jamie, 25/1 Clara, 50/1 Max, 66/1 HRVY, 66/1 Maisie Top Male - 2/1 HRVY, 7/2 Max, 6/1 Bill, 6/1 Jamie, 6/1 Jason, 20/1 JJ Top Female - 5/6 Maisie, 9/2 Clara, 6/1 Nicola, 13/2 Caroline, 25/1 Ranvir, 100/1 Jacqui Winning Gender - 5/6 Female, Evs Male |
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Sunday morning after the first live show
HRVY top scored with 25 (out of 30), Maisie 24 Current prices: HRVY................................2.82 - 2.96 (had shortened to high 4s pre dance, in pimp, low of 2.72 matched afterwards) Maisie Smith.....................3.2 - 3.25 (low of 2.6 matched after dancing) Clara Amfo.......................11.5 - 12 (low of 8 matched after dancing) Caroline Quentin..............13 - 13.5 (low of 8 matched after dancing) Max George......................17 - 19.5 (drifted pre show, around 10 to 12, further drift during the show, 19 highest) Nicola Adams...................19 - 22 Bill Bailey.........................29 - 34 Jamie Laing......................50 - 65 (big drift after dancing, in first, 95 highest) Jason Bell........................60 - 65 (big drift after dancing, 60 highest) Ranvir Singh....................80 - 85 JJ Chalmers.....................120 - 240 Jacqui Smith...................270 - 490 Amount matched £82,815. Back 103.8%, Lay 97.8% |
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Looks like there could be good liquidity this year as going back to last year on the Saturday morning of the second live show the figure was £89k matched whereas now with still two days to go till the morning of the second live show we're already up to £100k already.
It is a shorter season this year though to be fair but still encouraging. |
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Saturday morning of the first live show
Ironically, this being 31st October, there is no halloween theme this year. Yah. Current prices: Maisie Smith.....................3.2 - 3.4 HRVY................................3.25 - 3.45 (had drifted to high 3s earlier in the week) Caroline Quentin..............10.5 - 12 Clara Amfo.......................11.5 - 12.5 Nicola Adams...................15 - 15.5 Max George......................15 - 16 Bill Bailey.........................24 - 25 Jamie Laing......................38 - 40 Jason Bell........................48 - 55 Ranvir Singh....................50 - 60 (shortened a bit yesterday) JJ Chalmers.....................120 - 240 Jacqui Smith...................410 - 1000 Amount matched £102,885. Back 105.5%, Lay 97.9% First Elimination - 4/7 Jacqui, 8/1 Jason, 8/1 JJ, 10/1 Jamie, 10/1 Ranvir, 20/1 Bill, 40/1 Max, 50/1 Nicola, 66/1 Caroline, 66/1 Clara, 200/1 HRVY, 200/1 Maisie Top Male - 4/9 HRVY, 6/1 Max, 8/1 Bill, 14/1 Jamie, 20/1 Jason, 33/1 JJ Top Female - 4/7 Maisie, 9/2 Clara, 5/1 Caroline, 7/1 Nicola, 33/1 Ranvir, 100/1 Jacqui Winning Gender - 8/11 Female, 11/10 Male |
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Saturday morning of the SECOND live show |
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Monday morning after the first elimination - Jacqui Smith
Jacqui was bottom of the leaderboard both weeks. At suspension she was matched between 2.2 and 1.2 with lpm 1.33 Jamie's lpm at suspension was 4.3, Jason 9, JJ 9.4 £5,262 total matched on the market at suspension. Bizarrely the market was reopened during the Sunday results show with further small amounts matched for a new total of £5,390 The Bottom Two market had £119 matched and needs to be put to sleep Maisie top scored with 25 (out of 30). HRVY, Nicola & Bill all received 24 Current prices: Maisie Smith.....................3.2 - 3.3 (trading 2.9s during/after her dance before touching 3.6 a bit after) HRVY................................3.35 - 3.5 (around 3 whilst dancing, drifted a bit during judges comments) Bill Bailey.........................7 - 7.4 (24 pre dance, 16.5 as finished, 10.5 after scored, opened lower yesterday, low of 6 been matched) Caroline Quentin..............13.5 - 15 (shortened during the show to 8 as pimp was looking likely but she danced 2nd last, drifting to 10 then 16) Max George......................16.5 - 17 (drifted as high as 24 after Craig's comments) Clara Amfo.......................18.5 - 20 (15 getting matched as dance finished, drifting further during the show) Nicola Adams...................18.5 - 23 Ranvir Singh....................65 - 85 (36 matched during her dance before then drifting back out) Jason Bell........................60 - 140 (32 getting matched pre pimp dance but then quickly drifted afterwards) Jamie Laing......................80 - 120 (drifted after dancing) JJ Chalmers.....................210 - 390 Amount matched £119,424. Back 104.7%, Lay 97.3% |
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Saturday morning of the third weekend (second elimination) and it's Movies week
Bill - Early week had drifted to 8s but by Thursday morning had shortened to 5s then continued to shorten, low of 4 matched by evening (this mostly on news there would be 5 in the final). Overnight 3.8 had been matched then Friday evening 3.5 then 3.25 were matched, for plenty. Drifted back out a bit overnight. Current prices: HRVY................................3.5 - 3.95 (4.4 matched yesterday evening) Bill Bailey.........................3.85 - 4.1 (see above) Maisie Smith.....................4.1 - 4.2 Max George......................14.5 - 17 Clara Amfo.......................16.5 - 18 Caroline Quentin..............17.5 - 19 Nicola Adams...................25 - 30 Ranvir Singh....................50 - 70 Jamie Laing......................90 - 130 JJ Chalmers.....................130 - 290 Jason Bell........................130 - 480 Amount matched £141,875. Back 106.4%, Lay 97% Best bookie prices for: Second Elimination - 13/8 JJ, 7/2 Jason, 7/2 Jamie, 12/1 Ranvir, 12/1 Clara, 25/1 Caroline, 25/1 Max, 25/1 Nicola, 50/1 Bill, 100/1 HRVY, 100/1 Maisie Top Male - 5/4 HRVY, 11/8 Bill, 8/1 Max, 33/1 Jamie, 33/1 Jason, 50/1 JJ Top Female - 8/13 Maisie, 9/2 Caroline, 11/2 Clara, 8/1 Nicola, 25/1 Ranvir Winning Gender - Evs Male, 11/10 Female |
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Monday morning after the second elimination - Jason Bell
Jason was clear bottom of the leaderboard with just 12 points. At suspension he was matched between 5 and 1.15 with lpm 1.2 Nicola, second bottom on the leaderboard, was also in the dance off. She was matched between 20 and 8 with that 8 being lpm JJ was matched between 3.35 and 1.89 with that 3.35 the lpm although he was 12 to back at suspension £3,238 total matched on the market at suspension. The market was reopened during the Sunday results show with further small amounts matched for a new total of £3,672 Ranvir top scored with 27, Bill second with 26 Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................2.94 - 3.1 (4 to 4.3 pre dance in pimp, 4 end of dance, 3.4 matched during judges comments, 3 matched by suspension, low of 2.8 matched last night) Maisie Smith.....................3.9 - 4 (4 as dance started, shortened to 3.7 then 3.5 but back to 3.9 after judges scored then up to 4.6 matched after show, shortened back on market reopening) HRVY................................4.8 - 4.9 (3.25 pre dance, 3 matched during, back to 3.4 after judges comments, 3.7 end of show, around 4 at suspension, opened higher last night) Ranvir Singh....................19.5 - 20 (46 pre show, 36 as dance started, 28 end of dance, then 21 during judges comments, 18 then 15 matched after scored, 14 lowest matched) Max George......................21 - 23 (had shortened to around 12 pre dance in second last spot, drifted afterwards) Clara Amfo.......................21 - 26 Caroline Quentin..............28 - 32 (15 pre show, 18 when starting dance, 20 afterwards then continued to drift since) JJ Chalmers.....................75 - 160 (180 pre dance, matched at 70 then 50 after scored, then bits matched even shorter before drifting back out) Nicola Adams...................85 - 150 Jamie Laing......................100 - 190 Amount matched £175,347. Back 102.4%, Lay 95.8% |
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Saturday morning of the fourth weekend (third elimination)
News broke on Thursday that Katya has tested positive for Covid 19 and therefore she and Nicola have had to leave the competition Motsi will also be absent for the next couple of weekends and has been replaced by Anton on the judging panel Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................3.2 - 3.3 (low of 2.78 matched early week, drifted to around 3.5 after Nicola's withdrawal, due to no 5 person final now + fears no one is safe from Covid) Maisie Smith.....................3.8 - 3.85 HRVY................................4.6 - 4.7 (had drifted to high 5s earlier in the week before shortening back) Clara Amfo.......................10.5 - 12 (had shortened to around 17 by Weds, shortened further that evening after positive comments on ITT) Ranvir Singh....................18.5 - 19.5 Caroline Quentin..............29 - 30 Max George......................32 - 46 (highest matched 36) Jamie Laing......................80 - 140 JJ Chalmers.....................130 - 180 Amount matched £206,043. Back 103.3%, Lay 97.8% Best bookie prices for: Third Elimination - 6/4 JJ, 6/4 Jamie, 10/1 Max, 10/1 Ranvir, 12/1 Caroline, 16/1 Clara, 66/1 HRVY, 100/1 Bill, 100/1 Maisie Top Male - 4/5 Bill, 6/4 HRVY, 10/1 Max, 33/1 JJ, 50/1 Jamie Top Female - 4/6 Maisie, 4/1 Clara, 5/1 Ranvir, 9/1 Caroline Winning Gender - 8/13 Male, 5/4 Female |
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Monday morning after the third elimination - Max George
Max, joint second bottom of the leaderboard, at suspension was matched between 13.5 and 1.25 with lpm that 1.25. In the voting window he was backed relentlessly to go, ever shortening JJ, clear bottom on the leaderboard, was matched between 5 and 1.4 + £20 at 1.21 with lpm 4. The odds on money was matched after he had danced but he then drifted after Max's shortening Jamie was matched between 3.5 and 2 with lpm 3 Maisie, who ended in the dance off, only had £20 matched at 21 £5,985 total matched on the market at suspension. The market was reopened during the Sunday results show with money matched on Max at 1.01 & 1.02 for a final market total of £7,045 Clara top scored with 29, Bill & HRVY second with 27 (both getting a 10 from Shirly in addition to Clara's two) Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................1.82 - 1.85 (matched at 2.5 into the show, 2.8s when dancing in 6th spot, 2.54 end of dance, 2.2 then 2.1 matched during Shirley's comments, 2 then 1.9 after scored, even lower later in show, 1.75 lowest by suspension) HRVY................................5.5 - 5.6 (drifted to 7s after Bill shortening, 6s at suspension) Clara Amfo.......................8.6 - 8.8 (danced in pimp, shortened to 8.6 during judges comments then 7s after scored back to 9s at suspension) Maisie Smith.....................11 - 12.5 (drifted from around 3.75 to 4.5 during judges comments, then further drift on Bill's shortening, 6s at suspension, higher last night after being bottom 2, briefly 14 + 15 matched) Ranvir Singh....................24 - 25 Jamie Laing......................42 - 55 Caroline Quentin..............44 - 85 (drifted during then after dance, 95 been matched) JJ Chalmers.....................150 - 350 Amount matched £237,328. Back 104.1%, Lay 98.6% |
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Saturday morning of the fifth weekend (fourth elimination)
Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................1.83 - 1.86 HRVY................................7.4 - 7.6 Maisie Smith.....................8.2 - 8.4 Clara Amfo.......................8.4 - 8.6 Ranvir Singh....................21 - 22 Jamie Laing......................32 - 40 Caroline Quentin..............75 - 95 JJ Chalmers.....................250 - 490 Amount matched £270,062. Back 102.1%, Lay 98.8% Best bookie prices for: Fourth Elimination - 13/8 Caroline, 2/1 JJ, 11/2 Jamie, 8/1 Maisie (14 Exchange), 12/1 Ranvir, 22/1 Clara, 33/1 HRVY, 66/1 Bill Top Male - 4/9 Bill, 11/4 HRVY, 22/1 Jamie, 50/1 JJ Top Female - 5/4 Clara, 2/1 Maisie, 7/2 Ranvir, 20/1 Caroline Winning Gender - 4/11 Male, 9/4 Female |
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Monday morning after the fourth elimination - Caroline Quentin
Caroline, second bottom of the leaderboard, at suspension was mostly matched between 4.5 and 1.6 with lpm 1.8 Clara, bottom on the leaderboard, was mostly matched between 5 (small amounts up to 50) and 1.45 with lpm 2.6. She went odds on after being scored but then drifted back out after the show JJ was matched between 6.8 (+ £12 at 8 & £14 at 8.8) and 2 (+ £6 at 1.6) with lpm 4.3 Maisie, the other Bottom 2 again, was matched between 25 and 5 with that 5 being the lpm Jamie lpm 5.1, Ranvir 7. £7,562 total matched on the market at suspension. The market was reopened during the Sunday results show with money matched on Caroline at 1.01-1.04 for a final market total of £8,659 It was Blackpool weekend. They weren't in Blackpool, but they pretended they were. Jamie top scored with 29 Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................1.78 - 1.84 HRVY................................4.8 - 4.9 (7s pre show, 6s pre dancing, 5s after, opened mid 5s last night before shortening) Maisie Smith.....................13.5 - 15.5 (7s pre and post dancing, drifted to 8s/9s at suspension, matched as high as 22 last night before shortening back) Ranvir Singh....................14.5 - 16 (danced in pimp, trading 11-16 pre dance, 10 matched during dance, 12 after scored, around 17 at suspension, back to 12 last night before then drifting again) Clara Amfo.......................16 - 17.5 (8.6 pre dance, 10 by end, 16 during judges comments, 20 after scored, matched as high as 50 before back to 30s by suspension) Jamie Laing......................30 - 34 (30 pre dance, 25 during, 16 during judges comments, 15 after scored, back to mid 20s by suspension) JJ Chalmers.....................150 - 470 Amount matched £288,109. Back 102.1%, Lay 96.6% |
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Saturday morning of the sixth weekend (fifth elimination)
Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................1.86 - 1.89 (bit of a drift yesterday) HRVY................................5.7 - 6 (drifted from low 5s yesterday) Maisie Smith.....................8.6 - 9.6 (been slowly shortening thru the week but particularly yesterday. 12/1 on high street) Ranvir Singh....................8.6 - 10 (shortened yesterday) Clara Amfo.......................18 - 29 (been drifting thru the week but particularly yesterday) Jamie Laing......................28 - 40 JJ Chalmers.....................110 - 190 Amount matched £304,490. Back 104.4%, Lay 96.5% Best bookie prices for: Fifth Elimination - 6/4 Jamie, 7/4 JJ, 7/1 Clara, 13/2 Maisie, 12/1 Ranvir, 25/1 HRVY, 66/1 Bill Top Male - 4/9 Bill, 5/2 HRVY, 16/1 Jamie, 40/1 JJ Top Female - 13/8 Ranvir, 7/4 Maisie, 2/1 Clara Winning Gender - 4/11 Male, 3/1 Female |
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How about this what a pathetic joke the High St Bookies are.
I saw Horse's last post about Maisie being 12/1 on the high st. I could lay her as low as 9.6 here for about £65 and more a bit higher. Like most of you I can't get a bet on with these bookies but thought I'd try. I put in £200 at 12/1 with Paddy's, they offered me 42 pence!. I then tried Unibet who offered me 72 pence. What a fcukin joke. Why do they advertise these prices and take nothing on them? These are major bookies. I ended up getting £12.52 (big deal!) at 10/1 with Unibet. It's just ridiculous. Who can actually get a bet on with them? |
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Monday morning after the fifth elimination - Clara Amfo
Clara traded between 9.2 and 1.5 (+£14 at 1.4) with LPM 1.7. She plunged in price after dancing first and only getting 19 points Jamie, the other Bottom 2, traded between 5.1 (+£16 at 6.8) and 2.02 with LPM 4 JJ traded between 11.5 and 2.22 with LPM 6.6 £5,075 matched on the market at suspension. The market reopened during the Sunday results show with money matched on Clara at 1.01 & 1.02 for a final market total of £6,207 HRVY topped the leaderboard with the first series 30, Maisie just under with 29 Current prices: Bill Bailey.........................1.85 - 1.91 HRVY................................3.95 - 4.2 (5s pre dance, into low 4s during, hit low 3s briefly after being scored, back to 4 end of show) Maisie Smith.....................7.4 - 7.8 (trading 8s to 11s pre and during show, touched 7.8 during dance in pimp, 8.2 as show ended) Ranvir Singh....................14.5 - 16 (11 after dance, 15 end of show) Jamie Laing......................40 - 46 (danced second and plunged to 12.5 during, 14 end of judges comments but then steadily drifted all the way back out, 30s by end of show) JJ Chalmers.....................120 - 240 Amount matched £330,011. Back 103.4%, Lay 97.8% |
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Saturday morning of the seventh weekend (sixth elimination) - Musicals week
Current prices: Bill Bailey..........................1.85 - 1.86 HRVY................................4.5 - 4.6 Maisie Smith......................7.8 - 8 Ranvir Singh......................14 - 15 Jamie Laing......................36 - 38 JJ Chalmers......................85 - 100 Amount matched £347,180. Back 100.8%, Lay 98.3% Best high street prices for: Sixth Elimination - 6/5 Jamie, 11/8 JJ, 10/1 Ranvir, 12/1 Maisie, 25/1 HRVY, 33/1 Bill Top Male - 8/15 Bill, 2/1 HRVY, 12/1 Jamie, 25/1 JJ Top Female - 8/13 Maisie, 11/8 Ranvir Winning Gender - 1/4 Male, 11/4 Female |
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Monday morning after the sixth elimination - JJ Chalmers
JJ, already joint favourite-ish with Jamie to go, quickly went odds on after dancing first and only scoring 20. He had £2 matched at 3.5, £11 at 2.7, £4 at 2.68 then traded between 2.4 and 1.3 with LPM 1.4 Jamie, the other Bottom 2, traded between 4.4 (+£6 at 6 & £17 at 5) and 1.79 (+£24 at 1.53) with LPM 3.4 £4,619 matched on the market at suspension. The market reopened during the Sunday results show with more money matched on JJ between 1.05 and 1.01 for a final market total of £6,850 HRVY topped the leaderboard with 29, Maisie 28, Ranvir 27, Bill only 24 Current prices: Bill Bailey..........................2.52 - 2.7 (traded his lowest yet, 1.7, leading up to the show. traded 1.7s & 1.8s during dance, 1.9s after scored before drifting further after HRVY danced, LPM at suspension 2.24, opened higher last night) HRVY................................2.58 - 2.66 (4.5 pre show, around 4 pre dance then into 3s during, 3.3 after scored, LPM at suspension 2.9, 2.8s after market opened before shortening further, 2.5 lowest) Ranvir Singh......................6.8 - 7.2 (15 pre show, 13 as dance began and after emotional VT, 11 during judges comments, then 10s, even 8s briefly, after scored, LPM at suspension 9.4, opened 9s then lower last night, 6.4 lowest) Maisie Smith......................12.5 - 13 (9s pre show, same after dancing, LPM at suspension 10.5, further drift last night) Jamie Laing.......................65 - 75 Amount matched £396,555. Back 103.4%, Lay 97.5% |
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Saturday morning of the eighth weekend (seventh elimination) / Semi-Final
Current prices: Bill Bailey..........................2.64 - 2.68 (shortened to evens during Monday before drifting back out to 2.2/2.3 ish but then further drift Thursday and particularly yesterday) HRVY................................2.52 - 2.6 (out to 3 earlier in the week but has shortened on Bill's drift) Ranvir Singh......................6 - 6.2 (has shortened last couple of days, particularly yesterday) Maisie Smith......................14 - 15 Jamie Laing.......................130 - 150 Amount matched £431,551. Back 102.8%, Lay 99.2% Best high street prices for: Seventh Elimination - 2/5 Jamie, 7/1 Maisie, 7/1 Ranvir, 8/1 Bill, 33/1 HRVY Top Male - 4/5 Bill, 6/5 HRVY, 20/1 Jamie Top Female - 4/6 Ranvir, 6/5 Maisie Winning Gender - 2/11 Male, 7/2 Female |
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Monday morning after the seventh elimination - Ranvir Singh
Just before the show started, Jamie was trading 1.3s to 1.4s, Ranvir was 8.8 to back. Bill had shortened all day for elimination, low 6s matched Ranvir was matched between 10.5 (+£5 at 13 & £3 at 14) and 3 with LPM 3.7 Jamie, the other Bottom 2 (for a FOURTH time), traded between 1.6 and 1.2 with LPM 1.31 Bill had £6 matched at 4.1 & £32 at 5 (soon after the show started) but otherwise traded down to 6. LPM was 12 £4,779 matched on the market at suspension. The market reopened during the Sunday results show with more money matched on Ranvir but forgot to note the figures Maisie topped the leaderboard with 59, HRVY 53, Bill & Jamie 48, Ranvir 44 Bill - 2.8 pre show, 2.64 as first dance started, 2.4 during judges comments, 2.6 as scored / 2 - 2.16 just before second dance, 2.18 as dance finished, 2.46 after Shirley's criticism then 2.68, 2.46 after scored, LPM at suspension 2.5, opened low 2s last night HRVY - 2.6 pre show, trading 2.38 - 2.5 just before first dance (in pimp), 2.2 matched during dance, 2.6 during Craig's critique, then 2.7, 2.9 to 3 after scored / 2.5 pre second dance, 2.4 after dance, 2.3 after judges comments, LPM at suspension 2.5, opened around 2.3 last night before drifting Maisie - 11 pre show, trading 11 - 14 just before first dance, 10 during judges comments then 9s after scored / 9 - 11 before second dance, 8.6 as dance started, 7s matched during dance, 7.4 after scored, LPM at suspension 7.8 Ranvir had continued to shorten all day Saturday with a new low of 5 being matched. 5.6 pre show, 5.2 - 5.7 as first dance started, drifted to 6s during Craig's criticism / trading 7 to 8 before second dance, 9 as dance ended, then 11, 13 after judges had finished, LPM at suspension 16 Current prices: Bill Bailey..........................1.94 - 2 HRVY................................2.88 - 2.92 Maisie Smith......................7.2 - 7.4 Jamie Laing.......................75 - 95 (LPM at suspension 180) Amount matched £467,711. Back 102.3%, Lay 98.8% |
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Saturday morning of the FINAL
Current prices: Bill Bailey..........................1.78 - 1.9 HRVY................................2.9 - 2.92 Maisie Smith......................9.6 - 10.5 Jamie Laing.......................85 - 130 Amount matched £531,475. Back 103.1%, Lay 97.2% Best high street prices for: Top Male - 8/13 Bill, 6/4 HRVY, 33/1 Jamie Highest Scorer - 10/11 Maisie, Evens HRVY, 8/1 Bill, 33/1 Jamie Lowest Scorer - 1/3 Jamie, 5/2 Bill, 22/1 HRVY, 25/1 Maisie |
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Winner - BILL BAILEY
Dead Heat for 2nd - HRVY / Maisie Smith / Jamie Laing The final was one show and ran from 6pm to 8:25pm Shortly after my prices post on Saturday Bill was matched at 1.6 but then quickly bounced back out to 1.9s As we neared the show there was a sustained shortening in HRVY's odds 5pm - Bill 2.04, HRVY 2.5, Maisie 10, Jamie 100, £586,090 matched 5:59pm - Bill & HRVY both 2.2s 1st Dance - HRVY - trading around 2.1 2nd Dance - Jamie 3rd Dance - Bill - 2.32 pre dance, 2.12 after judges comments, 2.04 after scored 4th Dance - Maisie - trading 9s to 11s 6:43pm - after 1st round (Judges' Choice) - Bill 2.02, HRVY 2.4s, Maisie 10.5, Jamie 200, £632k matched 6:43pm - LINES OPENED (6 votes were available online) 5th Dance - HRVY - 2.4s pre dance, 2.64 after judges comments, 2.78 after scored, 3 a few minutes later 6th Dance - Jamie 7th Dance - Bill - 1.68 pre dance, 1.6 shortly into dance, 1.52 as dance ended then 1.4s then 1.3s as judges finished their comments, 1.2s after scored (HRVY now 5) 8th Dance - Maisie - now trading 20s after Bill's price collapse 7:20pm - after 2nd round (Showdances) - Bill 1.15, HRVY 9s, Maisie 20s, Jamie 250, £697k matched 9th Dance - HRVY - 8.2 end of dance, 6.6 after scored (Bill 1.23) 10th Dance - Jamie 11th Dance - Bill - 1.19 pre dance, 1.17 end of dance, 12th Dance - Maisie - 34 pre dance, 40 hit, 27 after judges comments 7:56pm - after 3rd round (Favourite Dances) - Bill 1.21, HRVY 6.8, Maisie 27 - 30, Jamie 210 - 600, £757k matched Bill, HRVY & Maisie all scored 88, Jamie 84 8:08pm - LINES CLOSED - last prices matched Bill 1.18, HRVY 7.4, Maisie 27, Jamie 460, final amount matched £793,654 Lowest & highest matched for Bill Bailey (highs matched pre launch show, lows matched during the final) 1.14 £1,152 1.15 £12,588 1.16 £9,802 1.17 £9,423 1.18 £20,998 1.19 £18,583 1.20 £20,255 1.21 £7,407 1.22 £6,552 --------------------------- 60 £180 65 £156 70 £79 75 £22 80 £22 85 £2 110 £4 120 £8 130 £21 Lowest matched for HRVY (lows matched at the beginning of the final) 2.04 £15 2.06 £799 2.08 £686 2.10 £2,875 2.12 £3,599 2.14 £593 2.16 £531 2.18 £719 2.20 £2,179 Lowest matched for Maisie Smith (lows matched during the first live show) 2.60 £90 2.62 £40 2.64 £725 2.66 £466 2.68 £1,091 2.70 £893 2.72 £340 2.74 £1,071 Lowest matched for Jamie Laing (lows matched pre launch show) 6.4 £4 6.6 £16 7.6 £8 8.0 £23 8.2 £230 8.4 £414 8.6 £324 8.8 £222 9.0 £226 Lowest matched for Ranvir Singh (lows matched leading up to the semi-final show) 5.0 £4 5.1 £40 5.2 £20 5.4 £160 5.5 £309 5.6 £76 5.7 £74 5.8 £205 5.9 £415 6.0 £472 6.2 £1,122 Lowest matched for JJ Chalmers (lows matched during the launch show) 17 £4 20 £18 21 £4 22 £4 24 £3 25 £47 26 £8 28 £43 29 £35 30 £59 32 £167 Lowest matched for Clara Amfo (lows matched during the fourth weekend show) 7.0 £41 7.2 £164 7.4 £206 7.6 £322 7.8 £28 8.0 £691 8.2 £1,015 8.4 £816 8.6 £887 8.8 £1,067 9.0 £1,029 Lowest matched for Caroline Quentin (lows matched during the first live show) 7.8 £4 8.0 £261 8.2 £151 8.4 £348 8.6 £96 8.8 £20 9.0 £151 Lowest matched for Max George (lows matched pre launch show) 3.7 £4 4.0 £4 4.6 £69 4.7 £26 4.8 £24 5.0 £20 5.1 £376 5.2 £115 Lowest matched for Nicola Adams (lows matched pre launch show) 5.5 £4 6.4 £30 7.6 £27 7.8 £46 8.0 £192 8.2 £39 8.4 £70 Lowest matched for Jason Bell (lows matched on the Saturday of the launch show) 8.2 £16 8.4 £84 8.6 £133 8.8 £28 9.0 £107 9.2 £97 9.4 £76 Lowest matched for Jacqui Smith 75 £2 80 £4 95 £6 100 £4 120 £12 130 £9 140 £4 150 £22 |
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Cheers Mr horse
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