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By:

stu When: 16 May 13 14:27

5 year trend analysis would put each half dead level, which is surprising.

By:

bexley When: 16 May 13 14:34

watched the rehearsal clips and Norway stands out a mile for me still. Managed to get decent sums on it for top 3 in this semi at around 1.5. Biggest best so far this year. Wish me luck

By:

bexley When: 16 May 13 14:34

bigeest bet*

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 14:39

May 16, 2013 -- 2:27PM, stu wrote:

5 year trend analysis would put each half dead level, which is surprising.

Maybe down to the juries.
When did they come in? 4 years ago?

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 14:47

Splitting it into 3rds, the effect of a late draw does seem to be more pronounced.

2012 3/4/3
2011 4/3/3
2010 2/3/5
2009 2/5/3
2008 3/1/6
2007 4/2/4
2006 1/4/5
2005 3/2/5
2004 0/5/5
2003 3/2/5
2002 5/1/4

Total - 30/32/48

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 14:50

Though less so in the last 4 years. The juries did come back in 2009

The last 4 years - 11/15/14

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 14:52

May 16, 2013 -- 6:24AM, Henry VIII wrote:
With Germany in the first half and Denmark in the second and with their gold special effects ending Denmark look a likely pimp slot for the organisers.

I will give odds on that Denmark will get the pimp slot. If the organisers want to end the contest in a spectular way then an act that has pyros, glitter, a crowd pleasure etc. will most certainly get the slot then a ballard. Failing that I will give evens that Denmark is placed 21-25.

By:

RMB © When: 16 May 13 14:57

Denmark being pummeled, looking good.

Wish I'd got that 4.5-5.5 now.

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 14:58

Yes. Specials markets always spot on

By:

RMB © When: 16 May 13 15:08

Hopefully it's news that it did splendidly in SF1. I can't lose though, as if it wins, I win money, if it loses, it's good news for a lot of good people on here.

By:

bearcub When: 16 May 13 15:13

Sycophant

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 15:17

RMB is on his happy pills today

I doubt there are any leaks. Some people are saying it topped the jury vote. Based on what I am not sure.

It went to 1.8 ish after the draw and is 1.8 ish now.

By:

bearcub When: 16 May 13 15:21

And i'm on my grumpy pills

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 15:23

no change there

By:

bearcub When: 16 May 13 15:24

I blame hems

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 15:26

You can't today. He's not here

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 15:28

There was a leak the other year stating that Tom Dice for Belgium won the semi-final and after the results were revealed after the final he did in fact won the semi-final. Who knows Denmark could have won the jury vote but it just could be a wild guess that someone is putting out. I wonder who could have won the pv?

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 15:36

Russia, if I had to have a bet

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 15:42

Well its bound to get high marks from the rest of the soviet block and also get dispora votes too from others so could well be top or top 3 there.

By:

hemsby When: 16 May 13 16:06

May 16, 2013 -- 3:24PM, bearcub wrote:

I blame hems

By:

hemsby When: 16 May 13 16:07

May 16, 2013 -- 3:26PM, five leaves left wrote:

You can't today. He's not here

I'm never far away

By:

hemsby When: 16 May 13 16:10

Cheers for the data on the draw effect Fig.I suppose things will look quite a bit clearer when we get actual Trap numbers rather than simply 1st/2nd half.Also what kind of song precede/follow our fancies.

By:

popking When: 16 May 13 16:26

I have laid Norway for top 3. I still don't think it has the crossover appeal to score high on televotes, and I am unconvinced the Juries will place it above Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Iceland, Israel etc.

I may be wrong, and it's not a huge bet but it looks a value lay to me.

I cannot decide which to lay in the Q market. It is 6 for sure + 4 from 8 for me.

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:33

May 16, 2013 -- 2:58PM, five leaves left wrote:
Yes. Specials markets always spot on

Whenever I see an odds on favourite in a market i get slightly nervous as it reminds me of Susan Boyle in BGT a few years ago. Susan Boyle was the scolding burning hot odds on favourite to win BGT and on the day of the final some newspapers were claiming that she will win it. She didn't win but came second and runner up to a dance troupe who wasn't a favourite. One newspaper stated that a punter bet £7000 on her to win. I bet he wasn't happy to lose.

By:

RMB © When: 16 May 13 16:34

That dance group were Diversity and they were deserved winners.

By:

popking When: 16 May 13 16:35

Corby, there are plenty of favourites at Denmark's price that get turned over on specials. It happens every year.

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:36

I rather like Diversity and am glad that they won

By:

SUNSHINE HEAD When: 16 May 13 16:36

when was the last odds on fav to get beaten in an ESC?????????? I cannot remember a single one in recent years

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:38

I think Lordi wasn't favourite to win in 2006. I can't remember anyone else or odds on to be honest.

By:

SUNSHINE HEAD When: 16 May 13 16:38

its quite a long time since host nation successfully defended its crown - so system is to lay host nation and back first 2 faves every year just prior to the first semi

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 16:38

Drip Drop was very short

By:

SUNSHINE HEAD When: 16 May 13 16:38

started to lengthen when the crout money came in

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:38

yeah i know drip drop was favourite but being first on i think didn't help its chances

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 16:39

The French guy was short too.

By:

SUNSHINE HEAD When: 16 May 13 16:39

no odds on

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:39

i am interested to find out where the ex yugo countries will give their votes to this year. Will they give it to the east or will they vote for the west.

By:

SUNSHINE HEAD When: 16 May 13 16:40

I did him so unfortunately remember

By:

five leaves left When: 16 May 13 16:40

True. Not sure it matters. Plenty of odds on shots have been beaten in these shows

By:

Corbyguy When: 16 May 13 16:40

too me it all comes down to excellent vocals and sound on the night.

By:

popking When: 16 May 13 16:43

There were never such short prices faves at ESC until the last few years. The fave was usually 3-1 or 4-1 at least. Now, with the explosion of the internet and social media, it's meaning songs perceived with big chances become much bigger favourites than previously.

Sure it turned out to be true with Rybak, Loreen - but not so with a couple of others, even if they were not quite so short.