Specials
ESC 2012 rehearsals...
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it* ffs
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Don't think I have ever been in disagreement with you so frequently over so many songs/artists leaves. Moldova isn't a patch on last year though its well performed and it doeasn't come close to the Romanian 'vibe'.
I think like Keth akoe has alluded to it may take a chunk out of the Jedward vote coming just before. Its just a bit 'mad' like the usual twins performance |
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and yes JO its a very good heat I think but there are some standouts. Filling the last 3 or 4 slots on offer is extremely difficult so I won't be trying
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I'm almost at the 'conspiracy theory' stage with Norway and Tooji . Why am I getting matched at 40+? Someone know something I don't
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someone been saying Tooji can't sing...i read it somewhere, i think it was a former contestant.
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CYPRUS,GREECE,ROMANIA,DENMARK,ICELAND,FINLAND...i'd have those 6, then it just gets too difficult deciding who's pooh smells the sweetest.
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I take back my remaining 3 or 4 spots up for grab from semi 1 comment I'm only willing to say Denmark Iceland and Romania are surefire qualifiers. After that probably Moldova
Wouldn't want Greece Russia or Cyprus at these prices at all |
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Russia is surefire for me, as previous I think it wins the televote easily and jury points will be spread evenly enough to see it top 3 in the semi and top 10 in the final. I dont see it as a winner but as a trade in the outright and top 4 markets.
That gives me Romania Denmark Iceland Russia and Moldova as sure fire qualifiers. Montenegro San Marino in the definite nos. So theres plenty of competition for the next 5 places. I see both Johnny and Daniel are agin Russia, the reason I am more upbeat is that on its first 300 views on youtube it had 118 likes and 60 dislikes most songs struggle for 20 likes and 118-60 beats 116-0 so its the ultimate marmite. |
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JO I just have that nagging doubt telling me that this landslide for Russia on televote for the grannies isn't as certain as most think. I'm more certain of its terrible jury placing.
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I said I was going to do a Daniel and lump on one song from each semi to qualify for £5k or so. It will be Romania in this semi and have already got close to a couple of thousand on at average 1.1
Get both right at these odds and I will have an extra £1k to play with for the final. Mad or what?  I'll wait and see what price I get on the night for the remainder. |
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Very brave Bex. Certainly not my sort of bet. My last 1.1 back ended in distaster, so the best of luck mate.
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As for Moldova I think it's better than last year.
Then again I love this type lunacy. For me it's a better song than last year, which was an ok rock type song, brought to life by the inspired crazy staging that we've come to expect from Moldova. This these song I really like even without the staging. I think Keith is right that it will take votes from Jedward and I have to say from Romania too. Having said that I'm sure Romania will qualify with plenty to spare. |
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..and tbf Be we tend to disagree on these shows more than we agree on them. So no surprise our opinions differ so much this year.
We did ofc agree on Azer last year and Turkey the year before. There must be one we agree on this year  |
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Bex*
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This years song*
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There must be one we agree on this year Can't think of one, really
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 I hope not for your sake. |
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So can he sing?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=azBDiRt-GcQ#! dont see why they figure an acoustic version of this type of song is a good idea. Put me off the song a little but its an irrelevance |
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He has a pretty decent voice to my ears, but I agree I'm not sure what acoustic version of upbeat popsongs tell us.
I certainly wouldn't be backing Euphoria on Loreen's acoustic version. |
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Germany Bex? (my 2nd biggest green now and closing on Spain)
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In saying that I dont have any strong backs not even Iceland or Romania that I mostly bang on about.
I advised those to a few friends as a trade or small ew when they were at 40/1 and 90/1 on here so most are happy but I wouldn't be telling anyone to back anything this year with any confidence |
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Wouldnt go steaming into 1 shortie bex just to say youve done it. The question you should ask is as ever "does the price represent value in light of my assesment of its chances" if the answer is yes then you back.
For me there were a few yesses? today Montenegro no @1/6 Romania yes @1/10 and Russia top 10 @ 1.65 as well as a few probablies Will Russia shorten from 12/1 win and 3/1 top 4 probaly yes. So rather than 1 bet of £6k on a 1/10 you end up with 15 lots of £400 at shortish prices last year I had 2 short priced good things turned over France top 10 @1.4 and Russia @ 1.6? though I did get out of France had that been my £5k bet and lets face it 1.4 was attractive I couldnt have got out of it and would have lost. I guess my advise is dont get into a position you might want to get out of, god I sound old  |
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Same here Bex.
I have a nice green on Sweden, a very nice green on Germany and a very very nice one on Spain, but I'm less confident that I'm getting value on any of them than I was about Azer or Turkey the year before. I'm in the lucky position for it to be a profitable year whoever wins this year. Unless I balls up from her. But obviously hope one of the 3 I named win. |
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from here*
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What I may have done wrong is to have put osme money down now. But if people are waiting for everything to be 'alright on the night' I was concerned it might be 1.03 or something. As I stated 1.1 seems generous as now I have heard her sing live a couple of times she seems very capable.
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I guess they all seem good things until they lose. I just didn't want to aftertime and was interested to see if anyone was/is going to come forward and say they won't qualify
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If I had done the same thing in last years semis my 2 selections on the same sensitivity analysis would have been Azerbaijan and Denmark who both finished second. I suspect Azer could have been less than 1.1 and Denmark around those odds
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i'm pretty sure Romania will qualify BUT eurovision is eurovision and anything can happen...i wonder what price this was to qualify... Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life (Sweden)... just take a look at the thousands in the audience loving it !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5P1neQKN-1k |
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I'm not a 1.1 better myself but Romania did come second to Sweden in one of the big polls and I covered them in the o/r on the basis of that. But as Milan says this is ESC.....
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that Anna Bergendahl not qualifying was really quite unbelievable...there must have been some pretty p!ssed-off people around at that time.
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I believe it was 1.1 Milan.
Was it genuine 1.1 tho? As a song I'd say yes. As for allies I guess not. And that's what Bex is betting on I'm assuming. |
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"if Romania wasn't in the first 9 out I can honestly say I still wouldn't be getting nervous for envelop 10"...you little liar you
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you'd be fecking sh1tting yourself
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oops would add a back of Serbia top 10 @1/3. Youre right by going in now you get the price, but I think as a medium for backing shorties I would prefer BGT simply because by the time theyre short you have all the evidence.
I think all bets should be relative to your turnover on the event for example I think Daniel has about 100k tied up in the markets with a biggest bet of £5k-£10k so his biggest bet would be 10% of his bank. I adopt a similar strategy albeit on a smaller scale. which means that you can cope with an unexpected setback or two without it doing a massive amount of damage. |