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Murray should make the Wimbledon final now. Unless he chokes
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Alex the old wrinkled retainer 10 Jun 12:41
It is all about the odds. Button at odds on before Wimbledon is too short and Murray at above 5.0 is too big. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. I am good at his don't you know. ;) |
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**this
Button drives at Silverstone before Murray hits a ball at Wimbledon though. So maybe the odds are about right now. |
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Go for a good outsider. (6,6)
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mcoy??
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Not too good at crosswords are you gresty? ;-)
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Quite a result that the Muzza has gone from 5.2 to 3.0 without hitting a ball at Wimbledon.
He us perhaps a bit short now - although a few early round wins will not doubt see him shorter. |
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Any thoughts on the Murray price here gents?
He is now 2.9 for SPOTY To cross reference he is 4.0 to win Wimbledon and 1.7 to make the final. If he wins Wimbledon he is 1.2 for SPOTY I think - maybe a touch shorter. What if he makes the final and loses - what do we see then - maybe 2.4 with the US Open to come? And what if he goes out in the next game - out to maybe 10's? |
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Asparagus Man 29 Jun 22:55
Any thoughts on the Murray price here gents? He is now 2.9 for SPOTY To cross reference he is 4.0 to win Wimbledon and 1.7 to make the final. If he wins Wimbledon he is 1.2 for SPOTY I think - maybe a touch shorter. What if he makes the final and loses - what do we see then - maybe 2.4 with the US Open to come? And what if he goes out in the next game - out to maybe 10's? I don't think that you are too far off but we differ a little. - Maybe 1.83 if he wins. - Should go shorter if he just makes the final and I agree with 2.4. - Out in next game and he won't drift as far as 10.0. Maybe he will go slowly out to 6.0 not forgetting that £28k has been traded on him so far, so any drift will be slower than it would be with a smaller volume. Button still has some racing ahead of him but I cannot see past these two for the winner market at the moment unless the cricketers pull a rabbit out of the hat in the Ashes. |
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The money on the book seems to indicate that people think he is a lay at shorter than 2.9. I agree with that money and that is exactly what I am doing, ie feeding in lay bets at various odds shorter than 2.9.
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My learned friend advises me that I ought to revise downwards my 1.83 estimate.
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Yep on reflection I agree he might not go as far as 10's if he loses tomorrow but I stick by my 1.2ish estimate if he wins it.
First Brit to win Wimbledon for seventy odd years versus someone who has a good car all of a sudden this year = only one winner imo. |
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Why not just back him to win Wimbledon at just over 4. Surely the better bet.
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because he might lose an epic and still win spoty
1.2 would be massive, imo |
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Two bites at the Spoty cherry fll. Win either and he walks it. Don't think either price is fantastic mind
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five leaves left 30 Jun 12:02
Why not just back him to win Wimbledon at just over 4. Surely the better bet. Aha, for a very good reason Mr 5 Leaves. I am responding to your post only as a little bird, ( a tall Irishman) tells me that you are a smart specials cookie. Murray odds are always too short, as were Hamilton's last year. (Note the use of the apostrophe.) Plus he will not win Wimbledon. If I have been of assistance then that is very good. ;) |
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i have murray a four figure winner in my book,
i am finding it to hard to lay him at varying odds this week between 2.7 and 3. |
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carpet1 01 Jul 19:48
i have murray a four figure winner in my book, i am finding it to hard to lay him at varying odds this week between 2.7 and 3. Ooo, what red are you sitting on with the field? |
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And are you Scottish carpet?
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No carpets in Scotland. Just cold stone floors
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i have one looser button but have bet to 34% mind you thats probably above you to work that out.
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Clearly
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Tis hot at the moment. I have a few looser buttons myself
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If Freddie inspires England to the Ashes, Murray wins the US Open and Button wins F1, what prices would they all be?
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dean macey 1/2
button 7/1 murray 8/1 freddie 9/1 |
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Murray sub 1.2 cuban. But he looks some way off yet. I suppose US is usually his best event
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Murray is current best price 4.5 to win the US Open so anything significantly above that for SPOTY looks good to me. Looks like he hit 8/9 over the weekend from the graph so well played those that picked that up. Sadly I was away.
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People only care about wimbledon (nap)
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Win the US, win spoty fll.
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Thank you AM ;-)
Sadly I'd forgotten to remove a back at 5. beforehand lol |
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Think Murray might drift a bit yet George depending on how others do before the US Open starts.
Also the Masters tournament is at the back end of the November and starting this year it is at the O2 so there will be more UK interest and at prime time just before SPOTY - could be useful for Murray. |
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Cav top 3?
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Is 2.62 a really good price for this?
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No. Shocking price.
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I thought not ;-)
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It was three years ago that I sat down and looked closely at the BBC Sports Peronailty award and came to a conclusion that the books had overlooked one person who had a chance of becoming World Champion in their discipline - that was Zara Phillips and she duly went on to win both and we were rewarded at 66/1 & 80/1. Well I have been looking very closely over the last week and think I have found another ripe candidate - step forward Jessica Ennis.
One thing to note is that the Athletics World Championship in Berlin will be on the BBC and Ennis will be heavily featured having missed out on the Olympics last year with a career threatening ankle injury - so there's the big sob story! She has come back this season with huge promise and holds the world best result for the heptathlon and is breaking PB's left right and centre - she has even had to change her take off foot in the long jump to protect her ankle - and thats akin to learning to write with the other hand! Ennis's chances are looking good - with World Championship silver medallist Lyudmila Blonska kicked out of the sport for failing a second drugs test, last summer's Olympic silver medallist Hyleas Fountain unable to qualify through the American trials, and 2008 world champion Carolina Kluft announced today she will definitely not compete. There are still a couple of athletes to fear but I can't see her going off bigger than 3/1 for the event and built into that price is the fact that anything can happen in a heptathlon. So who is the main competition - Jenson Button is a worthy favourite but it didn't help Hamilton last year and there is still an outside chance he could lose the World Champs. Andy Murray I think blew any real chance he had by not winning Wimbledon - OK he still has a chance to win the US Open the final grand slam of the year but I really don't think he is very popular with Joe Public. Mark Cavendish - I simply think any cyclist will need an Olympic year to stand a chance. A Cricketer - if England win the Ashes with someone putting in a stellar performance then they stand a very good chance - I just can't see it A Golfer - if someone wins the Open from the UK then they will stand a good chance but you would be better off simply backing them to win the Open! There are other protagonists but I think Ennis IF she wins in Berlin will be a top candidate - she has a great personality and the price in my opinion is wrong - I had £100 at 100/1 over the last week and the best price is now 66/1 at Ladbrokes - at this stage I would still be happy to stake £100 at 40/1 and above. |
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excellent work mm :)
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Good post mm
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rory is 100 (for £2) for spoty
and 28 for the open :) |
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Stage 1 completed - Button loses,England bad start at the Ashes and Ennis wins the 100m Hurdles and the HJ at the UK athletics trials
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