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SPOTY thread.

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Replies: 757
By:
seanvice
When: 05 Aug 09 15:07
rubbish, its a great comeback story. She has had a kid, another injury and olympic heartbreak again. She would be showing true British grit to come back from that :)

She would struggle to beat an ashes winning well performing Freddie, a USOpen winning Muzza. But lets say if both her and Ennis won in Berlin I would say Paula would come ahead of her.

Anywayz, nothing much to lose at 210/1 average odds to win and 30/1 for top 3. Worth a tickle.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 07 Aug 09 19:57
ALL ABOARD THE JESSICA TRAIN....FAT FREDDIE HAS ONE GAME TO WIN ASHES..BUTTON CAR NOW CARP....MUZZINATOR PLAYS US OPEN AFTER JESSIE HAS WON HER GOLD..PURFECTO...
By:
sofiakenny
When: 07 Aug 09 19:57
ALL ABOARD THE JESSICA TRAIN....FAT FREDDIE HAS ONE GAME TO WIN ASHES..BUTTON CAR NOW CARP....MUZZINATOR PLAYS US OPEN AFTER JESSIE HAS WON HER GOLD..PURFECTO...
By:
Boxman
When: 08 Aug 09 19:06
jessica ennis for me , athletes always do well in this comp
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 09 Aug 09 04:41
Boxman 08 Aug 20:06
jessica ennis for me , athletes always do well in this comp




Do they? How often does an athlete win in a year that is not an Olympic year? I have not checked but I would guess it is less than 5%.
By:
Boxman
When: 09 Aug 09 08:02
ok recent Athletics winners in a non olympic year include

Paula Radcliffe - 2002
Johnathon Edwards - 1995
Liz McColghan - 1991
Fatima Whitbread - 1987

Its quite possible Jessica Ennis will be the only British Gold medalist at the Worlds Championships coupled with a pretty face and the story of how she missed last years olympics via injury will make her a bit hit with the GBP

The opposition
Button - may not even win WC and if he did the GBP dislike the greedy overpaid racing drivers
Murray - May win the US Open and even if he did would anyone outside Scotland vote for him
Flintofff - Not even playing in the 4th test , would need to have a MOM performance in 5th test and win the match to have a chance.
tom Daly -Surely would win the young SPOTY not the main event

Be interesting to see what price Ennis will be to win the Heptathlon when books show their prices

Note she may also compete in the 100m hurdles if Heptathlon goes well so even more in the public eye

See this recent link about her

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/more-sport/2009/08/09/ennis-will-rule-world-peters-115875-21583416/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/5989044/Jessica-Ennis-feeling-on-top-of-the-world-ahead-of-the-Word-Championships.html

Of course she needs to win Gold to have a chance but if she does win Gold next weekend i expect her to be a short priced fav for SPOTY
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 09 Aug 09 09:06
More than I would have guessed, thanks boxman. About 25%, surprising.
By:
the muppet moans
When: 09 Aug 09 11:11
Just looking at the prices now - I would make Ennis single figures atm - she will probably be around 2/1 ish for the Heptathlon - built into that has to be the chance of injury and things going pear shaped in 1 event out of the 7.



the muppet moans 10 Jul 09:21
It was three years ago that I sat down and looked closely at the BBC Sports Peronailty award and came to a conclusion that the books had overlooked one person who had a chance of becoming World Champion in their discipline - that was Zara Phillips and she duly went on to win both and we were rewarded at 66/1 & 80/1. Well I have been looking very closely over the last week and think I have found another ripe candidate - step forward Jessica Ennis.
One thing to note is that the Athletics World Championship in Berlin will be on the BBC and Ennis will be heavily featured having missed out on the Olympics last year with a career threatening ankle injury - so there's the big sob story! She has come back this season with huge promise and holds the world best result for the heptathlon and is breaking PB's left right and centre - she has even had to change her take off foot in the long jump to protect her ankle - and thats akin to learning to write with the other hand!
Ennis's chances are looking good - with World Championship silver medallist Lyudmila Blonska kicked out of the sport for failing a second drugs test, last summer's Olympic silver medallist Hyleas Fountain unable to qualify through the American trials, and 2008 world champion Carolina Kluft announced today she will definitely not compete. There are still a couple of athletes to fear but I can't see her going off bigger than 3/1 for the event and built into that price is the fact that anything can happen in a heptathlon.
So who is the main competition -
Jenson Button is a worthy favourite but it didn't help Hamilton last year and there is still an outside chance he could lose the World Champs.
Andy Murray I think blew any real chance he had by not winning Wimbledon - OK he still has a chance to win the US Open the final grand slam of the year but I really don't think he is very popular with Joe Public.
Mark Cavendish - I simply think any cyclist will need an Olympic year to stand a chance.
A Cricketer - if England win the Ashes with someone putting in a stellar performance then they stand a very good chance - I just can't see it
A Golfer - if someone wins the Open from the UK then they will stand a good chance but you would be better off simply backing them to win the Open!
There are other protagonists but I think Ennis IF she wins in Berlin will be a top candidate - she has a great personality and the price in my opinion is wrong - I had £100 at 100/1 over the last week and the best price is now 66/1 at Ladbrokes - at this stage I would still be happy to stake £100 at 40/1 and above.
By:
Boxman
When: 09 Aug 09 11:22
you've got a nice price on Ennis there muppet man

Im sure you will be glued to the tv next weekend will you lay any before the heptaphlon to lock in some profit or wait and see how things unfold during the weekend?
By:
seanvice
When: 09 Aug 09 13:57
tom Daly -Surely would win the young SPOTY not the main event

Will get nomed for the main event imo, already won young persons 2 years ago. Plus no rule saying you cant win both.
By:
Huggy
When: 09 Aug 09 18:46
A bit of a move for Paula Radcliffe at 80/1 why the big move.
By:
gresty241
When: 09 Aug 09 19:15
world athletics probably but ain't she doubful for that race

http://www.morethanthegames.co.uk/athletics/095466-marathon-favourite-mikitenko-confirms-world-championship-withdrawal
By:
seanvice
When: 09 Aug 09 19:33
coz I tipped her :)
By:
christrinder
When: 09 Aug 09 20:36
coz I tipped her :)

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
By:
jimmy69
When: 09 Aug 09 23:06
Have you tipped any winners on your blog yet? I can't see any...lol
By:
christrinder
When: 10 Aug 09 05:59
Cabrera E/W at 100-1 for the Bridgestone wasn't bad this week. :)
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 Aug 09 17:24
What price Jessica if she takes the gold?
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 Aug 09 20:06
CHOO CHOO CHOO....ITS THE JESSICA ENNIS TRAIN!!!!!
By:
Boxman
When: 15 Aug 09 20:16
with SPOTY it will all be down to how the BBC present the nominees on the night

Jess has a great story with the injury and golden comeback so all is in place for her to win now (hopefully!!!)
By:
Boxman
When: 15 Aug 09 20:25
cant believe her price is holding up at 5's

The only possible opposition if England do not win the Ashes is j.button and he's odds against in a place to even win the motor racing champs

Maybe she will hit favouritism on monday morning when shes splashed across the front page of the daily newspapers as Britains newest golden girl
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 15 Aug 09 21:38
Has Murray ceased to exist Boxman?
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 15 Aug 09 21:42
No, wait. I have located him. He's in the final of that masters thing :-)
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 Aug 09 22:30
An English hero to win the ashes is a small threat..however Nadal aint up to speed and is playing on his least favourite surface..Fed has just had twins and tanked last night...Murray looking awesome on his best surface..he is the biggest danger to Jessica..Buttons car now appears to be carp.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 Aug 09 22:32
oh and if Paula wins the marathon...that would be mega.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 15 Aug 09 22:36
They call it a snickers nowadays. She should turn professional. They get a whole selection box
By:
Boxman
When: 16 Aug 09 07:26
Even if murray wins the US Open can you really see people south of Scotland voting for him?

Admittedly he has slightly improved his image (personality) but enough to overcome a pretty young gold medalist with a great comeback story

I doubt it but you never know!!!
By:
sofiakenny
When: 16 Aug 09 07:41
if he wins us open he becomes first brit male since the year dot to win a singles major.....i put that way higher than Jess' win.
By:
Boxman
When: 16 Aug 09 09:40
yes i agree in terms of achievements but this is a popularity vote not an achievement vote
By:
sofiakenny
When: 16 Aug 09 10:16
i think Murray is popular....certainly more high profile than Jess.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 16 Aug 09 10:16
Boxman 16 Aug 08:26
Even if murray wins the US Open can you really see people south of Scotland voting for him?

Admittedly he has slightly improved his image (personality) but enough to overcome a pretty young gold medalist with a great comeback story

I doubt it but you never know!!!






Strange things happen with phone votes. The Scottish vote clinched it last year and the Welsh vote the year before that. Both unexpected winners. Do not under estimate the apathy/intelligence of the English when they fail to pick up a phone and be charged for the privilege.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 16 Aug 09 10:17
I talk a lot of sense, btw. :)
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 16 Aug 09 14:30
Murray wins the US he wins Spoty barring a matchwinning display from Fred at the Oval.

If neither, it becomes less simple ;-)
By:
christrinder
When: 16 Aug 09 15:39
Paula Radcliffe has just won the New York Half Marathon. Participation in the World Championship Marathon is not confirmed, but I think likely. I have had a further £100 @ 66-1 on her on SPOTY (to go with my 50-1 on Ennis and 200-1 on Daley).

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
By:
johnnyrant
When: 16 Aug 09 20:09
the muppet moans 10 Jul 09:21
It was three years ago that I sat down and looked closely at the BBC Sports Peronailty award and came to a conclusion that the books had overlooked one person who had a chance of becoming World Champion in their discipline - that was Zara Phillips and she duly went on to win both and we were rewarded at 66/1 & 80/1. Well I have been looking very closely over the last week and think I have found another ripe candidate - step forward Jessica Ennis.
One thing to note is that the Athletics World Championship in Berlin will be on the BBC and Ennis will be heavily featured having missed out on the Olympics last year with a career threatening ankle injury - so there's the big sob story! She has come back this season with huge promise and holds the world best result for the heptathlon and is breaking PB's left right and centre - she has even had to change her take off foot in the long jump to protect her ankle - and thats akin to learning to write with the other hand!
Ennis's chances are looking good - with World Championship silver medallist Lyudmila Blonska kicked out of the sport for failing a second drugs test, last summer's Olympic silver medallist Hyleas Fountain unable to qualify through the American trials, and 2008 world champion Carolina Kluft announced today she will definitely not compete. There are still a couple of athletes to fear but I can't see her going off bigger than 3/1 for the event and built into that price is the fact that anything can happen in a heptathlon.
So who is the main competition -
Jenson Button is a worthy favourite but it didn't help Hamilton last year and there is still an outside chance he could lose the World Champs.
Andy Murray I think blew any real chance he had by not winning Wimbledon - OK he still has a chance to win the US Open the final grand slam of the year but I really don't think he is very popular with Joe Public.
Mark Cavendish - I simply think any cyclist will need an Olympic year to stand a chance.
A Cricketer - if England win the Ashes with someone putting in a stellar performance then they stand a very good chance - I just can't see it
A Golfer - if someone wins the Open from the UK then they will stand a good chance but you would be better off simply backing them to win the Open!
There are other protagonists but I think Ennis IF she wins in Berlin will be a top candidate - she has a great personality and the price in my opinion is wrong - I had £100 at 100/1 over the last week and the best price is now 66/1 at Ladbrokes - at this stage I would still be happy to stake £100 at 40/1 and above.



Take a bow, son. Take a bow :)
By:
the muppet moans
When: 16 Aug 09 20:17
Perhaps I should start charging for tips again! - only joking lol!
By:
sofiakenny
When: 16 Aug 09 20:25
great work muppet...i only got on board at 14-1...low as 2-1 with billies 7-2 best available now :)
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 16 Aug 09 20:42
Murray won that Masters fing. I wonder if he could win that US Open fing?
By:
seanvice
When: 16 Aug 09 20:51
Right, forgetting a Muzza US open win or a match winning performance from Fred. Because if either happens I think they both beat the athletes comfortably.

Does Paula beat Jessica in the vote if Paula can win next weekend? Paula might be the better story if anything to be honest, although Jessica is so damm likable and will also have mass appeal to middle England, especially if she is given some good coverage on the night.

Anyway I dont see on what planet Paula is a 66/1 shot for this. She is what??? 5/2 for the world title. Do people expect her to still be double figures even if she wins next weekend?? 66/1 is a crazy price.

I have myself 1.2k green on Jessica due to the great tipping earlier in this thread but cant help topping up my 8k green on Paula, dont forget she still has New York in November.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 17 Aug 09 09:54
Jess is from Sheffield, and this year's event is being held in Sheffield. Not to say she's weighed in already but that has to be another plus. Ennis will beat Radcliffe in popularity contest every time imo. Can't see her failing to finish in top 3. Biggest dangers are Murray and Flintoff but threat based on 2 very tough assignments for that pair.
By:
seanvice
When: 17 Aug 09 12:51
great point about it being held in Sheff, didnt clock onto that, will be a big plus.

However I dont agree that Ennis is certain to beat Paula in a vote, Paula is much more well known, and has a great story if she wins. In terms of what is a greater feat, I would say Paula winning again at 35 is more impressive than Ennis.

If Paula wins I dont think there should be too much between them in price.
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