Specials
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12 Oct 09
10:27
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01 Mar 03
Hope nobody minds a new updated version of Johnnyrants earlier thread.
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Replies: 2,390
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Agree with a lot of that rtb, not sure that Nat is 'immensely likeable' !
Ali can be a great dancer, has all of the natural ability and technical ability required. It looks to me as tho she still feels awkward and slightly shy when on the floor ie not got that confidence that Alesha had. Plenty of time for that to come. |
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a great write up,roger...best i've seen on here in a long time.
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and johnny too :)
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good post, agree with butch cassidy comments, must admit I didnt like her at first but she could have a decent journey, improving and poss gaining support, wouldnt rule out top 5 finish
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Tuffers should be 1.8.
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"..... and I think Joe Calzaghe will be here for a long time still yet."
Ah...yes....well...um..... Anyway, Bruno (I think) nailed it last night. There's Ricky W and his partner who are consistently great and then the rest, none of whom, bar Jade / Ian who are improving or consistent. Pretty dire year so far, but it could all change is someone in the pack just got their fingers out! |
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let's make this the new, default, ongoing Strictly thread.
From what I've gleaned via Twitter, Tuffers is doing a samba, Ricky Groves, American Smooth. Anyone got the inside track on any of the others. There was another AS Tess confirmed during interview on Sat night but I forget who it was. |
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But the final show is never about who is the best dancer. Lisa Snowden had 40/40 points in both dances, the judges praised them to high hevean. But the publc still voted her third.
The final show is a popularity contest with couples who can at lease dance a bit but not necessary be the best dancer. Whittle and Bastian will be in the final show, it a guess who the third will be. Anyway, Bruno (I think) nailed it last night. There's Ricky W and his partner who are consistently great and then the rest, none of whom, bar Jade / Ian who are improving or consistent. |
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Jo Wood - samba
Jade - samba Tuffers - samba Ricky Groves - AS |
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Mincey Chris - ASS
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Ali - AmSm
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unless I'm mistaken this coming Sat's dances are the last on the traditional rota of 12, but if you add up the remaining weeks, the six dances they won't have done only gets us as far as week 12. Anyone know what they'll be doing in the semi-final, week 13, which will be the final 4 couples? In previous series it has always been the remaining dances they've not danced plus the Argentine tango, but if they've danced all the dances, will it be a case of them getting to choose their favourite from the series - but wouldn't that mess up the final when they usually get this luxury?
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perhaps they will do the Charleston and the Lindy Hop like they do in DWTS :D
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the only thing with there being 2 more dance choices is that would create too many, so I can only think they're going to do another compulsory dance in the semi to accompany the AT that is something new...?
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would they do anything out of the ordinary (different/special) when they are in Blackpool? They've been making a big thing about that, but I thnk that is 3 shows away.
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good point - they could have something new up their sleeve for that.
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The Okie Cokie?
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Conga
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the rowing boat dance to 'Oops upside your head'
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:8} the shame at the memories
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Good write up for The Cat on entertainment odds. Should me odds on :|
This years final of Strictly will be a 3-couple affair, we repeat, a 3-couple affair, assuming none of the couples drop out between now and the December 19 final. Its a little known fact that since series one this has always been Strictlys intention but Jimmy Tarbuck, Kelly Brook and John Sergeant all put a spanner in the works due to their premature exits from the competition in the last three series. It was only Tom Chambers last minute reprieve in the semi-final that turned last years final back into a 3-couple dance off following John Sergeants withdrawal earlier in the series. This is vitally important to factor into considerations because the format of the final effectively means regardless of the standings on the judges leaderboard, the contestant with the biggest public following is assured of outright victory, as shrewd punters were quick to latch on to last year once Tom Chambers escaped elimination in the penultimate week. Unless there is a last minute tinkering of the format, the final will see the 3 couples judged by the panel, thus creating the usual judges leaderboard. The public will then vote, and the couple who is bottom overall will be eliminated. In the event of a tie, the winner of the public vote will progress to the final 2 which means even if the public favourite is last on the judges leaderboard, he or she is guaranteed to go through to the final 2. The final 2 is a straight head-to-head based on the public vote, so we can deduce from all this that the publics favourite will win the final regardless of how the judges award their points in a 3-couple final. With this in mind it is our belief Phil Tufnell is the publics favourite. This is all supposition of course but it makes the case for backing him a strong one. If the Cat is topping the public poll and continues to do so, the only thing that can stop him winning the series outright is an unfortunate points permutation among his rivals forcing him into the bottom 2. In the final 7, this is hugely unlikely. In the final 6, its hugely unlikely but slightly more likely than the final 7. In the final 5, its unlikely but slightly more likely than the final 6. We see his greatest hurdle being the final 4, a.k.a. the semi-final on December 12 potential D-day for Tufnell supporters. Heres how he could be ousted, based on a hypothetical scenario, and its worth noting there is only one permutation we can think of that would force him into the bottom 2 if he is top with the public and this is it: Ricky Whittle (judges) 4 + (public) 2 = 6 Ali Bastian 3 + 3 = 6 Jade Johnson 2 + 1 = 3 Phil Tufnell 1 + 4 = 5 The worry with the above hypothetical is that the judges scores ranking and public score ranking look to us more or less how they might look should these four couples make it through. In Phils favour is the fact he can dance both ballroom and Latin very competently, and he is improving, so hes not guaranteed to be propping up the leaderboard. It is also worth asking, does the show want a third cricketer to take the Strictly crown? And would a show that has made such a fuss about weighting it towards being a dancing contest, be happy about someone winning again who might not be the best dancer but is the most entertaining and hence the publics favourite? Its open to debate but its not impossible some contrivance could take place to ensure the sort of scenario outlined above does befall the Cat, and there are many who believe something not dissimilar brought about the exit of Gethin Jones in series five, while Austin Healey could have topped the public vote at the last four stage last year and also found himself in the dance off. In the semi-final one of the dances will presumably be an Argentine Tango. The case for the Cat will be even stronger if he gets the difficult-to-score-highly-in Jive, Rumba and Paso Doble out the way before that key semi-final comes around. But when you look at the current best prices of Ricky Whittle at 11-10 and Phil Tufnell at 11-1 it really is a no-brainer that the Cat is still a fantastic price and demands backing. |
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Its a great write up Squares.
My only issue is finding evidence that Tuffers is infact polling top. I am 100% positive he is popular but the whole of that arguement is based on him topping the poll! |
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Yep, a very good write up.
I doubt Phil is topping the vote atm. Well not every week anyway because unlike Coleen in DOI, he dosen't need the public vote every week. I suspect Ricky G topped it the 2 weeks he went last and produced a couple of hugely entertaining routines. Jo maybe top this week,, because she was near the bottom , so needed the vote and Brendan's strop will have helped too. The important thing is whether he's top when there are 7,6,5 ... left, when he'll need the public vote. I reckon the public will vote to keep him in at that point. Whether they'll vote him the winner, up against better dancers, in the final, is another thing all together. |
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Its pretty standard stuff but he's on the money nevertheless and at least he can be bothered to maintain a write a blog, inlike I would be able to do haha. Rob, the bloke who writes the posts, certainly seems to have a good grasp on things.
Its good for debate and shows even the really good players of the strictly markets still find different angles. For example I wasnt really thinking about Laila topping the week she did, in highesight a great spot, and something which I was kicking myself for (so much easier for the 9's to be given in ballroom). And so strongly tipping the over 31.5, which even though I backed, I didnt to the extent I backed the overs for Ali's salsa. Obvoiusly there is also stuff in the blog I completly disagreed with, for example the anaylsis of bottom scorer last week. I couldnt be having Jo in a million years, and thought it was between Joe and Craig (which it turned out to be). Certainly better than the guy who does it for the racing post. Tipping an 11/4 shot that should have been trading at 20/1 (Ali for top scorer) in the post blog last week was certainly not his finest hour. Although I dont want to critise too much as he did tip up Rav at 9/1 and he mainly writes sensible stuff, although I dont think he has quite grasped the show as much as the regulars on here. |
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Rav, lovely bet :-)
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Yep, I was on Rav that week. Although the winnings fell just short of the money I lost backing him on the outright LOL.
Rav for winner my biggest mistake this year, also Jo for elimination in week 2. Most bets I have made relating to scorers have gone perfectly this year (although the markets in them seem to be drying up :( |
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I was on him (along with tuffers on Kittens train) but jumped off
and backed him for elimination 9/1 freds, got a similar one for this week ;) |
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the bottom 2 has been tough to call so far this series. I was convinced Craig would be in bottom 2 last Sat, and also made the mistake of under-estimating Jo Wood's following. With Jo doing a samba you've got to expect her to be bottom with judges this Sat which could help her avoid bottom 2 again. Going by what Anton said during live show, he and Laila will also be doing a samba, and given his woeful fast Latins, Laila could struggle again.
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I reckon Laila would be due a samba, she had 2 ballrooms in a row in week 3 and 4.
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Tuffers a tricky samba
philtufnell Katya got me doing some tricks in the samba today hope I don't drop her it could happen #strictlytuffers less than a minute ago from Echofon |
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Jo Wood - samba
Jade - samba Tuffers - samba Laila - samba Craig - samba Ricky Groves - AS Ali - AS Zoe - AS Chris - AS Just leaves Ricky W & FatNat...? Both are doing the AS according to wikipedia. |
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AS' would make sence for them as they both had Latins in week 3 and 4.
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I thought RW was doing the samba and nat AS.
Could be wrong tho, |
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Nat definitely an AS.
She said to Tess, apparently. No firm news on RW. |
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So Jo nailed on for bottom.
RW or Ali top. |
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beat me to it fll - not as much value angle as I see it after last Sat's near things. Maybe Zoe can get in shake up for top score (esp. after her appearance in dance off and judges over-marking as a result), and samba could be Jade's dance. At the bottom it's Jo vs Craig, unless Anton creates another bad routine danced badly, but even then you'd expect Laila to get more pts, like last Sat cos she's considered a class above on back of her ballroom.
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Ricky G's AS looking good.
Not sure about the song tho. |
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Weds night bleedin fashion night these days :( ffs
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Ricky W looked like he's doing the AS, unless that was filmed last week.
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