rebelfm

AINTREE
4TH April 2013
Good to Soft
Cold a bit overcast but dry

RUACANA (remains a pos)
I had him down as a positive from the Fred Winter but not too strong to be fair and coming out of it I think with cut in the ground and a tight track he will win handicaps next season. He hurdled fine today and was close enough to Flaxen Fair at the end to suggest he ran better here than he did at Cheltenham so perhaps sharper tracks will be to his advantage going forward. As ever the four year old Cheltenham form did not hold up here and it is as likely that the exersions take their toll on these young horses however the winner L’unique had done all his running at the tight Aintree and Kempton tracks and to me it is clear the winner really suits those sorts of circuits. Clearly R is the best of Farrasheena’s six foals produced to date. R was moderate on the flat and rated 88 winning over 12f on good and soft ground in handicaps. Best runs tended to be on tight tracks with a second at Chester and a very good third in the feature Edinburgh Cup at Musselburgh. Has gone well since being put over hurdles winning at Catterick (expected to be suited by track) and Chepstow (not always fluent) and then a very decent third to the brilliant Our Conor in graded juvenile event at Leopardstown over Christmas. Not particularly suited  by track or weights against unexposed sorts in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival. But still fair 7/24 when first time visored. Siblings are a modest bunch out of a mare who was lightly raced but rated 95 having a fair third in Ascot maiden over a mile.  Black Malkin won moderate events over 7f, Dr Finlay was successful in stayers handicaps on the flat but is still a maiden rated 100 over timber, Freckenham is a dual winner in sprints on the flat rated 78and a couple of platers suited by a mile or sprints completes those that have made it to the track. The second dam produced some reasonable stock including a third in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and Nashville a successful point to pointer.  The family includes Quenns Vase and Fillies’ Mile winners as well as a second in a listed Galway handicap hurdle.

FIRST LIEUTENANT (watch)
I like this horse and the discussions as to to future options next season will go on and on. My feeling is that he looks a live King George as will stay the trip well at that tight track but I am still not convinced he is a Gold Cup proposition. I also think the proximity of Minorah and the fact that I thought Solviaco Conti is not the finished chasing article yet casts some doubt on the voracity of this race as a guide to the really big ones next year. IN short FL is a super horse which is obvious from his record, however my gut feeling is that whilst he will always be competitive I think he is caught between stalls a little and only represents a watch from a betting perspective.  His dam Fourstargale was a fiar bumper winner on two occasions before going to the paddocks. The second dam Sea Call was very decent over both fences and hudles including winning listed events The family include Mister Bosun who is no mug. FL’s full sister Ballyadam Gale has not shown much in two bumpers and ran in the pack in her first efforts over the sticks. His half sister by Flemensfirth is similarly of little account in the two contested novice hurdle efforts to date.

THE NEW ONE (wait till he chases)
A superb winner of the Neptune at the festival when I had him as an eyecatcher for the future but with fences in  mind. Stepped up in class against the best hurdlers bar Hurricane Fly and Binocular he ran with great credit going down in a driving finish behind Zarkandar by about a neck.  He still looks a chaser to me though. His dam Thuringe was third in a listed fillies hurdle at Auteuil so good quality. Her dam has plenty of jumping in the family including La Cagrotte who was successful six times. Closely related to Easter Day who was second in this season’s Challow Hurdle and ran in the last today.

BOLD ADDITION (pos)
An eight year old with little miles on the clock who ran in today’s Foxhunter at Aintree today but was not completely at ease over these GN fences coming down at Beechers which was not a complete surprise.  Has a good strike rate of 6 wins from 13 runs prior to today. He has only once been unplaced in all those runs. Previously trained by P Nicholls and gained five of his wins there. Starting off with a bumper victory on his debut at Aintree. Took a bit of time to get his act together over timber but broke his duck when going up in trip to 20f despite making errors on sixth time of asking.  Progressed from there by winning three on the bounce and was then a runner up at Cheltenham in a class 2 hurdle. Switched to chasing and was a fair second on his debut. Changed trainers to go hunter chasing and won first time up after a 15 month absence from the racecourse when jumping well and winning easily at Sandown. Followed up by winning a Foxhunter trial stakes at Warwick in facile manner. Clearly a very useful recruit to hunter chase scene but  I do not see him as a GN type with next year’s Cheltenham Foxhunter a real possibility. His mother Kaldina won twice as  a three year old and was also placed in listed events so had ability but has not produced much over sticks to date and the family is quite moderate.

ASTRACAD (neg except at Perth)
Astracad had a slow introduction to hurdles taking time to get his act together but eventually won on his fourth effort at Hereford despite not being entirely fluent . Followed up and again was not straight forward being unbalanced swerving a bit under pressure.  He was good enough though to win the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham which is a difficult race to win so clearly has plenty of ability. Ut the subsequent OR  140 anchored him a bit after that and his less than perfect technique compounded the problem of too much weight.  Switched to jumps he then picked up a debut win at Perth but could not step up to tougher fences at higher grade tracks and even when he won at Cheltenham was not fluent.  He was then upped to 145 over the fences as a consequence of that win . Ran in this Red Rum Handicap over the 2m last season and was a very good second but was not foot perfect. A return to Perth last spring though showed him to good effect and in he came again. Very lightly raced this year and was a well backed fourth at Cheltenham when blunders didn’t help his cause and was then a detached 7th in a valuable event.   He was a bit fiddly at his fences today and fell 7 out emphasising his lack of ability despite being a fast horse. One to lay I would say over the larger obstacles except when at his preferred option of Perth.

HIS EXCELLENCY (leave alone)

Was sold at Doncaster August 2012 horses in training event after winning on the flat hurdles and chases in Ireland. The dam has four progeny including Leg Spinner who has won £183k including decent runs over timber. Also in the family is  Ashka who was third in the listed Salsabil Stakes. HE started life on the flat for John Oxx and was a bit backward as a two year old. He then went handicapping as a 3yo winning a minor event but continued to show signs of temperament and maybe a lack of resolution. Switched to the jumps and George Elliott and in his races there occasionally showed this slight impression that there was a mental thing going on.  He did show plenty of ability and his hurdling technique was improving to the extent that he was good enough to win a good class grade 2 event for juveniles at Leopardstown.  Flushed with success the step up to perhaps the top Irish juvenile event Spring Hurdle was attempted but HE was thrashed and then outpaced in the Triumph which ended his hurdling a career which has a bit of a disappointment. Sent chasing  in early summer and was successful twice at Kilarny including in a handicap. Was then thrashed in the Galway plate and almost  immediately was packed off to Doncaster where went through the ring for 30 grand and is now with David Pipe. Won a novice chase at Cheltenham soon after but has not won since. Although exaggerated waiting tactics almost paid off when less than a length back in second in the grade 2 Kingmaker Novice Chase at Warwick. Ran twice at Cheltenham since at the festival beaten in the Arkle plugging on to reach the frame which was not bad and then falling when making progress after being held up in the Grand Annual. These marked him down as a slight positive. Blinkers are thought to have offset the temperament issue so likely to be a prerequisite he needs to be either racing over 20f of a well run big field over 16f. Suits being held up, looks a very tricky ride indeed and probably acts on any going. Raced in the 2m4 grade 1 Manifesto novice chase and his tail was swirling around like a propeller, I am not saying he didn’t respond well to the whip but he didn’t make any progress at all once asked for an effort. His jumping was chancy on many occasions. So in conclusion  too flakey to back.

BUTHELEZI (positive modest summer handicap hurdles)

In the closing handicap hurdle Bluthelezi tried to make all but was quickly swallowed up. Will be one to keep an eye out for in summer handicap htdles. Started off on the flat with very promising second despite running green at Newmarket . Followed that up by landing the odds with comfortable Yarmouth maiden win where there was a bit of cut and still ran green. Clearly the success of a bit of time to mature and a few months rest he  was viewed as being on a good mark when turning to nursery handicap duties and landed a gamble at Doncaster. Didn’t seem at ease with the heavy ground when closing 2yo career off at Newmarket. Gamely won seasonal bow as a 3yo on fastish ground at HQ before excellent second in listed company over 10f. Went into group racing with third in Princess of Wales’s Stakes and then fourth in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. Form then tailed off a bit was was well beaten in the St Leger and then in the  Noel Murless.  Had a light season on the flat last season as a 4yo with only two runs and neither were that great. Left john Gosden to go to Ferguson’s yard for jumping. Made all on his debut over the sticks at Aintree when a bit novice as could be expected. Stepped up to try to take on the very useful subsequent Supreme Novice     Hurdle winner Champagne fever at Leopardstown but was easily beaten However bounced back on a tight track to win on his preferred good ground at Catterick with ease. Clearly goes well for the claimer Jack Quinlan.  His breeding is very much flat orientated as the mother Ntombi won three including a listed stakes. Second dam is half sister to Pharcan a group 3 winner and Raah Alghan a group 2 winner. B represents a positive in summer events when not over-tried.

DONCASTER
10TH JANUARY 2013
Good to Soft

2 MILE CLASS 4 JUVENILLE HURDLE

HANDAZAN (neg)

Was a fairly strong 9/4 favourite in a competitive looking 11 runner event won by debutante Calculated Risk. Handazan is the first foal of Be My Guest  mare Handaza. Raced on the flat when trained by John Oxx in Ireland where he showed an aptitude for handling soft and heavy ground where he appeared well suited by a mile and a half. Won his maiden by wide margin cantering clear from an Aiden O’Brien trained evens favourite. Not disgraced when tried in listed company and beaten only 2 lengths into fifth place. Took pretty well to hurdles when bought over by Alan King this season. His first three runs have been in fair company and was second twice at Chepstow and Cheltenham including a decent Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle trial runner up but has twice been held by Far West. His win came in between at Aintree ahead of a fair sort in For Two. However he has never been too fluent often hitting plenty of timber during all his races. In today’s race he was close up throughout and was under fairly heavy driving from about five out. He was held when putting in a clumsy jump two out and although jumped the last better was eased from what looked to be a reasonable third place seeming sure to hold fourth but was picked up for fifth. His rating of 133 makes him one to avoid on a handicapping basis and seemed to  lack pace when challenged today He had been in the van for a long term and the fact is that first and second today came from off the pace so it could be that the leaders had just gone a bit too fast. Either way Handazan does not look a Triumph horse, his jumping is still too sketchy to be reliable and this race today did not look a particularly high quality renewal. As such I would avoid taking an interest in Handazan in future races until we see a bit more consistency in his hurdling.

2 MILE CLASS 5 MARES MAIDEN HURDLE 4YO+

USSEE (strong positive)

Although this was won in a great battle between long odds on Eleven Fifty Nine and Henderson improver Definite Ruby it is the third home and 6/1 second favourite Ussee who caught the eye as a future winner.  Second foal she is the half sister of Montbazon who was second in the Aintree champion bumper and was fourth beaten two lengths in last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. Ussee is a striking mare and has won best turned out in her two outings this season. She hurdles well and was not best suited by today’s muddling pace. She was challenging throughout and led on the run to the third last. She was headed approaching the last and stayed on at the one pace. She looks like she will be suited by tight tracks but she will probably need a longer trip than this. I think a handicap mark of around 110 is probable and a step up to 2m4 and further will I think see her in the winning circle in handicaps if the mark is as envisaged or lower. She looks to have ability and a sound attitude. Her breeding points to her achieving much better than this third place in the future. Definitely one to keep an eye out for.

3 MILE TWO FURLONG CLASS 4 NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE 5YO+

SOUDAIN (pos)

This was not a very good novice event with two fallers and all scruffy at their fences from time to time. The seven year old  Soudain comes out in my view as the better of the six as a longer term prospect. Won his maiden in the mud at Hexham over three miles winning easily but lost concentration at the last and made mistake. 117 mark was too high over hurdles and has now run three times over fences. Ran with promise over too short a trip on debut and then followed up when winning the Lincolnshire national over 3 mile five jumping well in pieces for the first time. Ran a bit too freely as well and was restrained today and seemed to lack concentration leading to several mistakes. However when allowed to stride out his jumping was decent for a novice. Difficult to assess on the 111 mark as I think if you could bank on his jumping was better he would be worth serious consideration. Looking at that Market Rasen win I thought the fact that he was allowed to stride out in general it meant that his jumping was on the whole pretty good. The pair were well clear and although he idled a bit entering the straight, he buckled down well after the last to reassert and win well. Clearly stays 3m4 plus and if off 111 is worth backing in soft ground.

2 MILE 3 FURLOND CLASS 4 NOVICES CHASE 5YO+

CONQUISTO (pos)

The main thoughts on the  result will likely be based on the impressive victory by Overturn en rouote to a shot at the Arkle which he looks very likely to go close in and I think would be good fancy. However it was the runner up Conquisto that I liked today. Never gave up and jumped economically and was often as good as his illustrious opponent. He was beaten 25 lrngths but was eased down from a fair way out and was not given much more than a school. The pair were about a fence clear of the rest. Conquisto is a half brother to Peterborough Chase and Charlie Hall winner Deep Purple. Fair on the flat winning a class 4 handicap here at Doncaster. Highly rated over hurdles at 135 and has twice run well in the Swinton at Haydock without winning it. Duin’t seem to stay 2m4 over hurdles although only tried over the trip once and that was at the sharpish Perth. Looks even better over fences after a facile Doncaster debut victory and today’s excellent run against one of the very best two mile novice chasers of this season. His mark of 142 would look good in  a top two mile handicap on a flat track such as Haydock or Aintree as his jumping is unliklely to be exposed by more experienced opponents.

2 MILE 3 FURLONG CLASS 4 HANDICAP HURDLE

HATTERS RIVER (strong pos)

Big field and the race run at a good pace. The one to be on in the future is the well backed (6/1 third favourite from 9/1) Hatters River who was held up in midfiled for the first mile and a half and his hurdling was occasionally a bit less than fluent. Produced and made smooth headway to hold every chance approaching two out. Gap on stands rails closed and he was switched to the far side. However it looks like he needs the running rail to hold concentration and he was bought back. Lost plenty of ground as  a consequence of the two switches, staying on without being knocked about to be 6th beaten three and half lengths. Tongue strap seems to have helped and looks one to back in handicap company next run. A novice and on a fair 97 mark. Didn’t look like he stayed 3 miles when tried over the trip at the sharp Taunton circuit in November. I thought 2 and a half mile held up looked optimal for him.

2 MILE 3 FURLONG CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE 5YO+

GORES ISLAND (pos)

Quietly fancied 5/2 second favourite seven year old Gores Island was the one I kept an eye on today as his 115 mark looked very fair based on his win at the corresponding fixture last year in the novices event. Plus a promising chase debut at Newbury. Not always fluent today but considering level of inexperience jumped well today and definitely better than on his debut. The winner Back Bob Back was a very good winner jumping extremely well. Gores Island was the only danger to the winner approaching two out but was not as tidy as others over these fences and the momentum was temporarily knocked out of him. He still stayed on to be beaten just over four lengths was no bad effort from by far the most inexperienced chaser in the field. He won one of his two hurdles over a stiff two miles at Towcester and although has been campaigned around this two and a half mile mark, I would be keen to back him off this 115 mark in decent ground over a stiff two miles.

2 MILE OPEN NH FLAT RACE Class 6

GRAND GIGOLO (wait)

Out of the same family as Voy Por Ustedes and has apparently shown promise at home. Acted up in the preliminaries a lot and his race was run before he got ontl the racecourse. He did show some potential as having been held up to settle forced his was into the race but he was spent half a mile out and come home in his own time. He looks a smart sort, neat in build and looks the type to prefer good or faster ground. He needs to mature but I think he has the ability to pick up a bumper in time.
DONCASTER 9/1
USSEE                    2    0

WARWICK
20TH MARCH 2013
HEAVY
VERY COLD

HORSES OF NOTE

POSITIVES OR PREVIOUSLY NOTED

THREE MILES ONE FURLONG HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 4

PRIEST ISLAND

There is not too much in the pedigree to suggest an awful lot. The only sibling who made the track was Ley Preacher who stayed 3 miles but was not really that good being best placed as third in a modest Sedgefield maiden. However the second dam did produce a decent 2m4 handicap chaser in River Unishion who was a regular over the Aintree grand national fences for the John Hughes and Foxhunters. Also won fair handicaps including at Newcastle and was a multiple winner of low grade flat races over two miles in Ireland.  Very few miles on the clock and off 107 without a win to his name PI ran a decent race being eased when beaten at the last today having been right in the thick of it two out.  His hurdling was naturally a bit hit and miss but when he got it right he was decent so with a bit of expected improvement in technique you have to feel that there is more from PI.  There are those who think he may not stay this sort of trip but the pedigree suggest he has every chance of doing so and his sire is doing well this year over the jumps. My view is that he would probably be better over a shorter trip and that soft ground will suit, On the basis of being not so exposed and that he didn’t really get a hard time of it I would expect PI to open his account most likely in a handicap.

TWO MILES NOVICE HURDLE CLASS 4

RED COUTIER

This is a particularly well bred horse to be going novice hurdling with his mother having won the Group 2 Sun Chariot stakes and was second in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes.  There is a lot of stamina in the family such as a runner up in the Sagaro Stakes. He was not too bad on the flat concentrating on two mile handicaps and was successful on the polytrack at Kempton twice.  Had not been seen on the track for 19 months so clearly something had gone amiss . Was switched from Paul Cole to Venitia Williams. This was a very promising debut, looked like he would be in need of the run based on the absence although to be fair looked in pretty good nick to me in the paddock. He hurdled very well for his debut and was always close up just being run out of it after the last by the more race sharp Don’t Do Mondays. RC tended to be kept to good or fastish ground on the level or the poly and it is probably the case that he will be much more at home on good ground. Sure to stay further and can build on this especially on tightish tracks.

TWO MILE BUMPER

COURT APPEAL

Was useful in points in the Antrim area with two wins and second in his last three efforts over the three miles before heading over for the Brightwells sales. He is bred out of a point to point family. The dam didn’t race but a mare produced by her was placed over hurdles and won points. Sandmoor Chambray is also out of the family and he was very good over 10 furlongs on the flat. He won on his debut today but it was in workmanlike nature and I think he will be better over a longer distance when he goes hurdling. Looks a scopey sort with the frame to chase and I think  he will do fine when sent hurdling .

TWO MILES FIVE FURLONG  MAIDEN HURDLE CLASS 5

AWBERG MASSINI

I saw Awbeg Massini race at Uttoxeter in February  when attepting to make all but being beaten into second place to subsequent handicap hurdle winner Fourovakind (won off a OR of 120) when it looked to me as if AM waited when in the lead and was hauled in quickly on the run in. Today’s race was a good maiden event won by Cloudingstar on his hurdling debut being half brother to Flemmingstar out of the same family as Carvills Hill so has the connection to imply ability and the second favourite whose hurdling disappointed again today being Lone Ranger finished a remote fifth but backed on the basis  of some very useful French form including a 1m6 listed race win on the flat at Deauville. AM raced today with more restraint than at Uttoxeter and with a tongue strap for the first time Always prominent took the lead three out but was never really in command and was soon beaten approaching the last to be bit of a disappointment in fourth as was a well backed even money favourite today.. He hurdles a bit big but very safe and his timing was good with claimer Michael Byrne giving him a nice ride (worth his three pounds I would say). Went through the ring at Cheltenham Brightwells April sale last year for 20,000 having won a point in Ireland. He is brother to useful hurdler Aughaloor who picked up a couple of fair novices and his best run was when fourth in the big grade 2 novice hurdle race at Naas and was then fancied before being hampered and pulling up two out in a festival handicap hurdle at Pinchestown. He wasn’t seen after that. He was well suited by 2m4 and looked like he was going to satay three miles at Punchestown. AM is closely related to Irish Arkle and multiple chase winning mare Rosenaire who was herself the dam of two winners. There are Kings Stand and Chester Vase winners in the close family. AM clearly has ability and will stay three miles. He looks the sort to make a chaser one day but in the meanwhile it is probable that he will be better on good ground and kept to ‘summer’ jumping. I think the tongue strap probably helped his breathing (which  is suspect apparently) a bit but I think the lack of a win is probably in his head and some blinds will not go amiss. I think Michael Byrne clearly gets on fine with him and I would like to see him retain the ride and have AM as a strong  positive when conditions etc prevail.

THREE MILES FIVE FURLONG HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 4

POWER PACK JACK

I had him down as a positive needing a tight track, preferable right handed  and good going over three miles. So to see him over 29 furlongs in the mud going left handed didn’t inspire me to follow the heavy backing to make him a 6/4 favourite. To be fair he was much the better jumper of the four runners for much of the race and did look to have the race in his hands before going out like a light with five furlongs to run. His previous form over this sort of marathon has often ended up in a similar result so I feel that unless the criteria I felt ideal when I saw him run a good second at Leicester prevails he is not worth backing.

CHELTENHAM
12TH MARCH 2013
GOOD TO SOFT
VERY COLD SOME SLIGHT SNOW

TWO MILES NOVICE HURDLE

JEZKI (pos)

The real question of this race is which of the first three locked together has the most potential going forward. The winner Champagne Fever stole a bit of a march and dictated pace and although quickened well I doubt or at least there is a doubt  he would win if they broke from stalls. The much vaunted My Tent Or Yours raced well and looked to be going best from the second last but flattened out a bit so you have to question whether this track was suited to him, I think there are doubts and a flatter track like Haydock will probably suit him. Finally there is the younger Jezki who cruised up coming to the last where he made a right pigs ear of it landing on all fours but still quickened up and was staying on up the hill. His the one for me for the future particularly at tough tracks has won twice at Naas which I think always takes a bit of getting.

TWO MILES NOVICE CHASE

BALLY GREEN (pos)

You might say this was all about toughening it out after dropping a swede and one of the differences between Simnonsig and Overturn was that the former clobbered a few and paid no heed and the latter went to pieces when he smacked the third last. However for me the star of the race and the one I would follow closely is outsider and runner up Bally Green. Big imposing sort, jumped great throughout and in fact to my eye he was the most accomplished jumper in the field.  Has won over two and a half miles in Grade 3 company without being extended. He wouldn’t be the first gold cup winner to come out of an Arkle. Think of Kinging King beaten narrowly by a specialist and top class two miler in Well Chief back in 2004. Bally Green could follow suit. Remember KK didn’t tackle three miles plus over ny obstacle until the gold cup he won and his first run over three miles was the King G he won.

THREE MILES CLASS 1 GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE

LOCH BA (pos)

I think this young chaser is on a fair mark and needs to tackle a flat track I am not convinced this was his running and he didn’t seem to gert on with Cheltenham

TWO MILE CLASS 1 GRADE 1 CHAMPION HURDLE

HURRICAN FLY (neg)

A great winner coming back to regain the crown for the first time since the great Comedy of Errors and is the last winning 10 year old the enigmatic Sea Pigeon. Well all due respects to HF but to me he is not quite up to the SP class and with the welter of new kids emerging on the block both in Britain and Ireland I cannot see him winning many races next season so with reluctance I have to have him as a negative.

TWO AND A HALF MILE MARES HURDLE

SIRENE D’AINAY (POS)

The great  Quevega is peerless amongst her sex that’s for sure. But could we be seeing the emergence of a tough mare who didn’t have the mud she is used to and didn’t dictate the pace until about threequarters of a mile from home. She looks one to keep on one side and I would say this was no fluke run.

TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE

HOWARDS LEGACY (pos)

As I said in my Leicester spiel this horse is not an easy one to get on with and needs strong handling and in my book at this stage of their careers I would have a Coleman on this one before I had a claimer on. He was going OK in midfield until stoked along five out, down tools at four out and pulled up two out. Not his running and hopefully the assessor will  chalk him at around 130. Goes well in good ground and on flat tracks which are essentially galloping either right or left handed and remains a pos provided off a decent mark and with an experienced jockey.

CHELTENHAM
13TH MARCH 2013
GOOD TO SOFT
COLD SUNNY SPELLS

FOUR MILES NOVICE CHASE FOR AMATEURS

GODSMEJUDGE (pos)
I thought ran well just didn’t seem to stay this extreme trip. Didn’t really stay the 4 miles but was game and stuck to task looking like 3m5 would be within his scope. Jumps well and can pick up races off this 139 mark.

TWO MILES AND FIVE FURLONG NOVICE HURDLE

THE NEW ONE (pos as a chaser)

Might be being talked up as a champion for next season and was impressive with good turn of foot but I fancy him as a chaser with potential to win an Arkle one day.

THREE MILES NOVICE CHASE

GOULANES (pos)

Got himself into all kinds of traffic problems but ran with credit and might not be on a bad mark after this. Looks a decent handicapper in the making. Has developed into a very nice three mile novice chaser and one to keep an eye on seems best with sift ground.

TWO MILES CHAMPION CHASE

SPRINTER SACRE (pos)

It will take while before he gets caught up. Impressive in jumping only when flying at the fences was quite ordinary at his slower paces. Will obviously continue to be a stone ahead of the other two milers for a while including Simonsig.

TWO MILES FIVE FURLONGS HANDICAP HURDLE

BARBATOS (pos)

Ran a good race without likely to ruin his mark so one to keep a look out for. Has won at Aintree and his 137 adjusted mark over around 20f looks interesting. Was held up today and got too far off the pace but was hampered and got into bother when making a run and was eased from that point. Wins have come when held up.

TWO MILES JUVENILLE HANDICAP HURDLE

RUACANA (pos)

Eyecatcher without being too obvious I thought he looked good today. Half brother to Dr Finlay who has been reasonable to date over hurdles rated at one stage 105 but still a maiden.

TWO MILE CHAMPION BUMPER

PURPLE BAY (pos)

Looks a very good novice hurdler in the making next season. Dam was a winner at 3 in an Ascot maiden after a very good stab at the 1000 guineas when 6th of 18 and has thrown six winners from eight foals which is a pretty good rate. Swinging Sixties. Second dam won the Lowther and threw Moon Ballad (won Dubai world cup and Dante) very closely linked to high class hurdler and decent chaser Buena Vista

CHELTENHAM

14TH MARCH 2013

COLD SUNNY

TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICE CHASE

DYNASTE (pos)

Jumped great but I am not entirely sure Cheltenham suits. He will stay three miles on a soft track and watch out for next season’s King George with him.

THREE MILE HANDICAP HURDLE

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (pos)

I continue to be convinced that he is best on a less undulating track. I didn’t think he got up the hill that well and looked a little bit uncomfortable. Hurdled well at speed for a novice and off this mark there will be a decent handicap over three miles to be had.

TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG GRADE 1 CHASE

CUE CARD (pos)

Great round of jumping and blew some very good horses away. Of all the five championship races (some say this isn’t but two and half mile chase is a specialist department and needs to be recognized as such) Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre look the ones most likely to retain their crowns next season.

THREE MILE CHMPIONSHIP HURDLE

OSCAR WHISKY (neg)

Looked absolutely cooked and he comes out this side of October represents a decent lay even at his second home of Aintree. But of course what do I know other than what my own opinion tells me.

TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

SHOEGAZER (pos)

Stayed on well without getting too much air time after a mistake hen beginning to hake headway definitely didn’t help his cause and as such others will have impressed the handicapper more. Comes out a pound down at 145 which looks very fair.

THREE MILES ONE FURLONG AMATEUR RIDERS HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 2

NOTHING STOOD OUT

THREE MILES SEVEN FURLONG HANDICAP CROSS COUNTRY CLASS 2

SACREE TIPY (pos)

Excellent first effort on the novelty course. Could make up into something reasonable at this discipline and maybe give the North a chance of competing with Ireland at this event.

CHELTENHAM

15TH MARCH 2013

TWO MILE JUVENILLE HURDLE grade 1

OUR CONOR (pos)

Brilliant. Looks like and has a fantastic neat hurdling technique comparable to the great Buck House. I will be amazed if Our Conor doesn’t win the champion next year and I think he has the scope to make a chaser despite being essentially a flat bred horse there is some stamina and chasing in amongst his blood. Never ahs a Triumph been won with so much ease and this was a high class running. Might prefer the mud but I would say his action does not mean he will be inconvenienced by fastish ground. Best novice at the meeting.


TWO MILES HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (pos)

Decent hurdler with plenty of nice form in the past and ran a sound race ready to win soon. Stays 20f and seems suited by undulating courses. 138 is slightly off his last winning mark of 134.

THREE MILE NOVICE HURDLE GRADE 1

AAIM TO PROSPER (pos)

I had him as a positive coming out of a decent event at Doncaster and he won at a reasonable price when tried over the three miles.  My view is and was that this is a high class novice and he hurdler fine today. He is a high class handicapper over long distances on the flat, you do not win back to back  Cesarewitches the second of which was off 9-10 nearly two stone more than you carried in your first victory (Giving Countrywide Flame a stone and half almost by the way) if you do not stay at a fast pace. So what went wrong today? Well forget about an out of sorts Nicholls yard, they still had plenty running well they just haven’t got the same firepower we are used to, the rain would not have helped as his best runs are on good ground. But most importantly his wins have all come on big galloping tracks. So let’s hope he has a fair mark coming out of this, say 127 and let’s keep the faith for another race hopefully a decent spring handicap.

THREE AND A QUARTER MILE CHASE GRADE 1 GOLD CUP

NOTHING

THREE AND A QUARTER MILE HUNTER CHASE

BACKSTAGE (pos)

Although pulled up in the Foxhunters, stacks of them did for some reason or other. Not a bad run and on better ground at Aintree could do well although in the GN I would think the scouse version of this event more appropriate.

TWO AND A HALF MILE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 2

NOTHING

TWO MILE HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

HIS EXCELLENCY (very tentative pos) 

Although a faller I thought he was going ok without being hard driven and so he is a tentative positive. Although after four days of this I am getting a bit fatigued so this one might look like a crackers call. Was a very good juvenile hurdler in Ireland winning the grade 2 event over xmas 2011. Needs a fast run 2 mile chase.

DOWNPATRICK
6TH MARCH 2013
GOOD
BRIGHT CRISP LITTLE WIND

TWO AND A QUARTER MILES MAIDEN HURDLE

THE CRAFTY BUTCHER (tentative positive)
Didn’t look a bad bunch. The one I take out of this is the Michael Horigan Limerick trained favourite The Crafty Butcher. Clearly he needs a left handed track as was never really comfortable on the bends today and as a consequence came wide into the short straight and had little time to pick up at all. He looked well in the paddock and in fact got the best turned out awarded to him. He has been placed in the majority of his races but he has had 12 runs now without success. Ran in five bumpers last season with going down by a nose to Our Vinnie (who won a grade 3 at Limerick over Christmas and is rated 142 so a pretty useful novice). His best run to date over hurdles was at Cork when second to Blossom Gate when ridden by Ruby Walsh over two and half miles. But has met decent novices such as odds on Road To Riches when fifth again at Cork but over three miles.  So in conclusion TCB has ability, probably suited by slower ground than today, this sort of trip is fine but needs to go left handed.

TWO AND A QUARTER MILES MARES MAIDEN HURDLE

MY BELLE ANNIE (pos)

Despite this being a moderate field of mares My Belle Annie could not have been much more impressive ridden handy took it up coming down the hill to the second last and had the race in the bag before the short uphill straight. Had a couple of bumper runs for experience last season.  Chucked in the deep end on hurdling debut when running in good company (winner Rising Time had previously won a 50 grand bumper at Fairyhouse) at Listowel when fourth in unsuitable heavy ground. She was thrashed over Christmas by Our Vinnie when third in a Grade 3. But that was over an unsuitable 3 miles in heavy ground. On better ground ie soft she was a close up third to Royal Flight. So in short I think she is capable of following up this spring under a penalty given good ground and this sort of trip.

TWO AND A QUARTER MILES NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE

NOTHING OF NOTE OTHER THAN IF PATRICK O’BRADY TELLS YOU A HORSE IS GOING TO WIN DON’T BACK AGAINST IT

The opening of the renovated Downpatrick was led by a great speech by Monaghan man and trainer of Derby and National winners Patrick O’ Brady. Snatches of his talk were ‘Who would have thought we’d have had carpets in the bar here at Downpatrick’. He also made sure everyone present was fully aware that his horse Khan Tengri was going to win for sure. At the time of the advice he was 12/1 and he finished up at 13/2 win going away from them by more than four lengths. He then took over the winner’s circle with craic and verse.

TWO MILES AND A QUARTER HANDICAP HURDLE

BATTLEMOUNT (slight pos)

Strong fancy Battlemount was soon beaten having been produced from the back to be competitive about threequarters of a mile out. When the pace quickened he had little answer and came home a poor fifth in his own time. He has bits and pieces of form generally in the mud and run his best races at Clonmel over two miles. On 84 and only a six year old you would imagine he can pick up a small handicap when conditions suit. However if his OR is an indicator of his potential you could not see this maiden picking up anything other than a handicap.

TWO AND A QUARTER MILES HANDICAP CHASE

BREFFNI GAEL (just about a positive).

No horse appeared to want to win this race as many either idled badly when in contention or fell when ahead. As such I will just about side with Breffni Gael who as held up and was produced spot on by Niall Madden but was left clear when favourite and leader Coolking fell 2 out. BG then idled lost concentration and fell at the last! She has won between the flags (runner up is rated 91 over timber) and is only seven so the 74 mark for the right race looks comfortable. Not one to trust implicitly but has a bit of ability if she does have a question mark over her attitude and seems to need kidding by excellent amateur Derek O’Connor (she had to come back after idling on PTP win)

TWO AND THREEQUARTER MILE MAIDEN HUNTER CHASE

BETELLINGYOUALIE (pos)

It was Cork v Down from the second last but this time the laurels were for Ulster.  But the much fancied Antim horse Oneforetheroad Mac failed to make much impression. Difficult to know what to make of the tight finish. You would have thought if the local winner General Mccreevey was well thought of he would have been a bit shorter than25/1. He had previously won three points including two at Kirkistown but not in what looks like exalted company. On the other hand the much lighter raced Cork runner Betellingyoualie has not been out of the first three in his last seven runs including picking up a similar event at Clonmel in February which followed a maiden win from subsequent PTP winner Moss Grove. In my view the seven year old Betellingyoualie has the ability to win more hunter chases and if fairly treated by the assessor say less than 100 can graduate to handicap chasing as I would say his jumping is pretty tidy. 

TWO AND A QUARTER MILE BUMPER

BALLY LONGFORD (pos when hurdling)

Great finish between three high quality amateurs as Nina Carberry just pushed favourite Noel Meade trained Benemeade home from Derek O’Connor ridden Michael Horigan trained The Job Is Right and Paddy Mullins ridden Bally Longford. It is the third home that I have as a positive. Looks a hurdler / chaser to me but will take time as not a natural jumper based on initial pointing form. Has had two PTP and the second was particularly interesting having been second looking like the winner till bade mistake lost him the race but was only beaten two lengths by Copper Birch who has done well in England over hurdles this year rated 134. Bally Longford was only beaten two lengths by that over three miles.

LEICESTER
FEBRUARY 26TH 2013
Good to Soft
Cold day bit gloomy
TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 5
KNOCKDOLIAN (tentative pos)
This was not a bad event of its sort. The winner  Be Mt Deputy is a big tall raw thing and I was a bit surprised to see how well he jumped and even more so how he battled back to win oncve headed over the last. So he should logically be my eyecatcher here. Well he isn’t because they were packed close up at the last and I would have thought if he had asserted they would have been out like the washing so there were a few held up merchants who probably didn’t quicken as well as expected. Particularly Caulfields Venture who had been held up and produced to have every chance approaching the final fence but just didn’t kick on even under quick vigorous ridding. Oddjob who finished second wandered a bit on the run in suggesting either getting tired or is a bit iffy and was showing a lack of resolution. The one I have me eye on for the future for this race is the mare Knockdolian. She was raced on the inner throughout, close up to the pace. Jumped inconsistently in the main but got better as the race went on. Still up with a chance to get a blow in approaching the last she did not run on but was not given a hard race to finish 6th with these six well clear of the remainder. Has had a few runs on the flat and once finished second in a minor handicap when exaggerated waiting tactics failed for the 11/10 fav. She tried her hand at hurdles and was pretty hopeless . However she looks more a chaser and her first effort was OK with today being a step in the right direction. I think she is worth support whilst she improves and might pop in at a decent price one day.
THREE MILES HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 4
POWER PACK JACK (pos)
Only half the field got around the rest fell which made it a bit of a muddle of a race. One of the fallers was the fair sort Nomme De guerre who was on his fourth run following enforced absence  out since 2010. He was pretty good back then and I had thought today might have seen a further step in the right direction. However he did look beaten when falling three out. The winner was Franklin Roosevelt who looked a good sort in the ring and was ridden confidently. He did however struggle to reel in the long term leader and my view is that FR did not have the turn of foot anticipated. I do think the runner up Power Pack Jack showed a bit of a return to the form which saw him win the class 3 Cumberland Chase in 2011 and his rating now of 101 is handy based on his two victories in the past of  109 and 97. All his best form has come running right handed and today ran in a manner suggesting can win when good to soft conditions and RH exist. In fact just as he did today just met a young one on the upgrade. The pair finished well clear.
TWO MILE HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 4
GANDALFE (pos)
This was run at a decent clip with the winner Milgen Bay making most and jumped well in the main. These tactics thwarted Coolbeg’s efforts to follow up on last season’s success in this same race but he made excellent ground to hold every chance on the run to the last but the winner just had an extra hand in the stamina stakes. The one for me to take oiut of the race was third home Gandalfe. He had not been on the track for a year before his comeback started this winter. He looked in great condition. Was well fancied and jumped well in the main bar on slight mistake around halfway, came to look a serious challenger on the way to the last but just failed for a bit of race sharpness to finish an unhurried third.  Previously had finished second a very good novice chase at Sandown and was then given a 125 mark which was a real stopper. However worse than that was a complete brake put on his career over fences when all over the place with his jumping in December 2011 at Kempton.  He has slid down the weights now and 107 looks very winnable. He has had a lot of problems with his jumping and there is no doubt that this  is his main detraction, however he did look to have improved in that department today and perhaps over 2m4 he will at long last break his duck probably on goodish ground. So a tentative positive.

THREE MILE CLASS 3 RUTLAND WATER NOVICE CHASE
HOWARDS LEGACY (pos)
The Musical Guy was a pending when I saw his last run here in January and another race of promise and blindfolds were the order of the day. He looks a super chaser in the making, clearly stays this sort of trip but needs to take his jumping up another level. He showed a bit of improvement today but not enough to elevate him to positive territory just yet. It’s getting near to backing zone perhaps he needs one more clear round in a handicap and I can see him picking up a novice event over this sort of trip soon. The biggest disappointment was the well backed and good class Volador who looks really smart has been rated 135 over hurdles but just cannot jump well over chases and to be frank he looks out of his depth requiring a switch back to hurdles before he gets injured. The winner looks very good indeed. Howards Legacy was a bit tetchy in the parade ring and despite being seven almost looked a bit green. He is a smashing looking chaser not too big framed but well muscled.  I thought he jumped well and was bought through to lead approaching two out and then just motored clear. Idled a bit when bored and had to be shaken up on the run in which allowed the runner up to be a flattering length and a bit behind. He had been beaten in a close race by the very progressive opening Batsman on his previous race at Wincanton and looks a novice capable of defying a penalty. It will be interesting to see what the assessor does to his 129 mark with handicaps in mind as that is the field with the likelihood of bigger fields that he will benefit from.  He is in the early closing events at the festival so will get 7lbs hike I suppose for the win in those races. The main two are the Kim Muir but he is also in the novices handicap over 2m4 and it is that one I like him at for Cheltenham. I think he could do will in that. He needs a top jockey as I think he is a bit of a trickey ride, he looks nicely balanced and I can see him going well at Cheltenham.
THREE MILES MAIDEN HUNTER CHASE CLASS 6
NOTHING OF ANY GREAT NOTE
I have to admit to being underwhelmed by this race which I would guess might have been a mistake as the winner Robin Will soon put this lot to the sword in facile manner. He had been rated 118 over hurdles following a runner up position in a moderate maiden. He beat the less experienced French Canadian (hot fav at evens today) who must have shown something as was 11/8 on his debut when second. Quite what benchmarks they have at a stable which last had a winner in 2008 is beyond me but clearly they have and clearly he is OK but clearly the benchmark is not reliable enough for the sort of odds he ends up being! The third Schindlers  Prince didn’t do as well as I thought he would. Built on a line through his last Irish form that would put him about 88ish.

TWO AND A HALF MILE HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 4
GREAT AUCHTRACHENE (pos till reassessed as can win under a 7lbx)
Old stager Ballyman ran a game race from the front but was beaten for stamina on the run in looking all over what he is a Plumpton specialist and I would put no-one off backing him when he goes back there sometime soon on a mark south of 80 in a class 5.  Greats Auchtrachene  was well ridden by Neol Fehily and could not have won easier coming off the pace to overhaul the old man on the run in but a shade cosily. I think this was a bit of a soft race in truth and I would think he will find it hard getting an easier race of this sort. Clearly not at home in the mud but allowed to slip down the weights a stone because of two PU which in hindsight more than a touch generous. His French form was OK and included a good ground win which in France must be like a road.  You would think that sneaking him in quickly under only a 7lber on goodish ground right handed might just be the order of the day whilst he is clearly in good heart and on a good mark. So my eyecatcher from this one is the winner but only if they get him before reassessed as I would guess he will be up that stone again to 119! Refusal ran another honest race in third and always does his best but just cannot seem to win. Because of this he holds a solid mark and whilst I am confident he will pick a race up in time and that off this 105 mark you will always get a run for your money I cannot put him in as a positive. The joint favourites were both disappointing especially Quinte De Chatelet who is down to 104 in the weights from 125 but the high was from his hurdling form and to be honest I cannot have him chasing as to me he cannot jump and he chucked his jockey early today.  Avenging Ace the other fav and a PTP winner in Ireland was no mare than fair today and finished fourth. The final horse of note was fifth home Jasperito who was a bit unlucky getting into trouble a few times and eased a bit to come home as he liked when the race had gone from him.  Managed to win a three mile hurdle at Perth and has only had the three efforts over fences where his jumping is improving and it would be no great surprise if he managed to land a small handicap off this 88 mark which looks very fair.

WETHERBY
19TH FEBRUARY2013
Soft
Bright sunny day
TWO MILE CONDITIONAL KOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 5
A SOUTHSIDE BOY (pos)
Handicapper still hasn’t caught up with winner Coverholder who was completing a fourtimer. Held up in mid division made smooth progress to lead approaching two out and won still looking to have a little in hand.  Although you could say he may yet have another win in him I think eventually the assessor will catch him so I will leave him out. The race was not run to suit Prickles who I had seen win in good style at Uttoxeter on New Year’s Eve She likes to dictate matters and was not allowed that today as was hustled along having to press for the lead. She went out too tamely for this to be her form and whilst she has had a fair jack up in the weights I would not be negative and take her on with a lot of confidence in subsequent races. Second home Solway Dandy was unlucky in running on his handicap debut and could very well pick up a handicap soon but it was the German bred A Southside Boy who looks on to back in the future. Slowly getting the hang of things over hurdles after three novice events came into handicap territory off  79 which looks more than fair. Previous flat form included a handicap win over a mile and half at Hamilton Park in the mud. Showed tenacity to win but took a good while to show any ability on the level suggesting in a slow learner but has some pace. On the basis of this more promising staying on fourth I would say he needs further than this with at least 2m4 required. His hurdling was nowhere near perfect and there were a couple of clangers today but is definitely going in the right direction. His only win was under Tom Eaves which suggests to me he could well do with more experienced jockey especially in these early days. Has only been ridden by claimers to date.

TWO MILES FOUR AND A BIT FURLONGS NOVICE CHASE CLASS 4
RISKIER (neg)
This was not a satisfactory race at all with more than half the field of 11 falling and the unfortunate sight of Shinrock Hill perishing. The winner was Marie Des Anges who jumped fine and skipped clear. Quite what she beat and the circumstances of the victory would not make her a clear winner in the future and shouldering a penalty in novice chases difficult. Probably better suited to handicaps I would say. The one I watch for the future as a laying option is third home Riskier. He was prominent for much of the race and kept out of the trouble as a consequence. Looked to be the only challenger entering the straight but was out jumped from three out and finished tired. His jumping was very sketchy and spends a long time in the air. Whilst safe enough looks too careful and I cannot see him picking up many more chases going forward off this 109 mark. I think he is better over a two mile trip but this is the third consecutive race where his jumping has been his Achilles heel so he looks to me a lay and with recent form figures of 2211323 he is always likely to trade shorter than his ability dictates.

TWO AND THREEQUARTER MILES HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 4
SOLIS (neg)
The seven year old Forty Crown still looks a bit of an awkward sort but battled on well to prevail from the veteran Leac An Scail who still retains plenty of jest. My eye though was caught by Solis who looks a lay going forward. Although  11 places from 45 runs with two wins probably says it all. Both those wins were off 93 (raced off 95 today) and was ridden by Ryan Mania at Cartmel and Perth. In truth  Cartmel is the one track I would be wary taking him on as both runs at that idiosyncratic  track where about his best and Cartmel often throws up a specialist. In the meantime his hurdling is too big so will always be open to being outpaced by nippier jumpers. Has been campaigned on the flat with not a sniff of success, well beaten in sellers over timber and has played up at the start before.

THREE MILES ONE FURLONG HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 3
SEE U BOB (pos)
Good class but small field feature race. The hot favourite Good Order was outjumped and was beaten coming into the straight with the winner  No Secrets making all and dictating well. However  it remains the Johnjo O’Neill Trained See U Bob who is still a positive for me. I had said enough as to his past performances after I saw his run at Leicester. In terms of today he again looked to have a real chance going to the last having been held up but did not quicken enough. It was still a good effort  I am not saying he doesn’t stay this sort of trip but his wins have all been around the two mile mark and maybe  a large field handicap over that sort of trip off around 123 with a bit of cut is required. I think he will be best over a flat track and I remain positive. Today’s 6/1 was a decent each way as I was always convinced getting at least the money back at quarter the odds.

TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICE HURDLE CLASS 4
WHISPERING GALLERY (pos)
This was a very nice hurdle race indeed with the first three home being good quality and no excusses so I would expect the form to work out. Whilst the winner was super impressive and rates the eyecatcher it is likely to side with the inexperienced ex Irish pointer Marken who continues to improve and ran very creditably finishing fourth in such company being competitive for much af the race. Bobowen and Diese Dynamo ran creditable second and third by Whispering Gallery looked a class apart here showing stamina and jumping ability which marks him out as a future top grader. He is in a host of Cheltenham races and on the basis of two facile wins out of two hurdle efforts you question why is he at such long odds. Some might point to one clumsy jump two out today but the error did not knock his momentum in the slightest. If we assume he can jump which I believe he has shown he can, the only question is what about consistency at a fast pace. Well we will just have to see. But what about class? On the flat in 2009 he won first time out as a three year old for Mark Johnson. He then won a class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting on fastish flat ground,  As a four year old was second in the listed Fred Archer Stakes,  won a listed race at Windsor before running second in the group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot by a short head. His final race on the flat was winning a £400,000 Group 3 at Meydan over two miles.  I think he will be even better when raced over three miles over hurdles . Could be decent each wayer at the festival and I think the Albert Bartlett is his best option.

TWO MILE HANDICAP CHASE  CLASS 4
JACK THE GENT (neg)

They went a decent clip and in general they were a fair mob with the winner a stocky grey jumping fine and wining in workmanlike but with a bit in hand. However the runner up caught the eye as one to lay. Form figures of 422 would have him chalked up on the low side I would say but his jumping is so erratic especially when at a fair clip as to make him one to leave alone. One win in 18 which was a novice hurdle says plenty. Still a novice over the larger obstacles and likely to remain so

TWO MILE NEWCOMERS NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE
FIDDLER ONTHE HOOF (pos for long term)
It didn’t look that inspiring when I looked at the card with twelve horses who had never seen a point to point let alone raced under rules due to contest the final race of the day. In fact they looked a very nice set with some looking bumper quality and others clearly for the future. The winner Diamond King just pulled right away showing an excellent turn of foot and clearly well prepared by McCain for this racecourse bow. Cost €85,000 and is well bred for the game. Of the others Willpower looked a smart sort and bred for NH being closely related to useful Noble Price. Showed up in a handy position throughout but just didn’t go the same pace as the winner. I think he will prefer faster ground. The one that I liked the most was Fiddler Onthe Hoof. Full brother to hurdler Songsmith he looked like he has plenty of scope to make a hurdler and probably in time jump fences. Went very well today if a bit green. Hampered after getting into contention approaching 2 furlongs out and come home unhurried to be a promising 5th. Can win a bumper but will be much better when sent jumping in due course. Looks sort to stay further than 2 miles as brother won good event at Newbury over 19f.

UTTOXETER
9TH FEBRUARY 2013
HEAVY
COLD DRY TILL DRIZZLE FOR LAST RACE
TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG CLASS  5 MAIDEN HURDLE
LOWPARKLAD (slight pos)
Given the going it was no surprise that this was run at a slow pace with the leader Awbeg Massini making most and jumping economically. I thought it wasn’t a bad race and the odds on favourite Fourovakind was well ridden by James Banks being produced with a well timed run to lead on the run in for a comfortable victory. Of the remainder I thought the six year old Radio Nowhere ran a promising race in fourth hurdled tidily but either didn’t like the mud or didn’t stay the trip I think it was more the latter than the former and I would expect a decent effort over the minimum trip. The eyecatcher from a positive if tentative vote went to Lowpark Lad who was coming back from a 811 day absence. According from all records this was his first run under rules having turned up for two Irish points and raced with credit particularly when relinquishing lead and battling back to win 4yo gelding event. He didn’t look in bad shape really but was rusty / novicey over the early hurdles but soon got into his stride and without really being pushed got into the contention at the fourth last. He came to hold every chance approaching 2 out but failed to quicken and did not really pick up when the pace changed. He was left to come in his own time. Sure to come on for this and I would think he will stay further particularly on better ground. An encouraging run however after being off the course (where!)  for so long you have to have a nagging doubt about how robust he actually is.

TWO MILES CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ CLASS 5 SELLING HURDLE
GET IT ON (pos)
Sedate gallop for this seller. Bridal Madic who was having his racecourse debut hurdled poorly and was soon detached. Stow and Get It On were by far the better technical hurdlers. The winner Stow was bought for thick end of 11 grand and he won readily looking the sort to step up from this seller having good form in class 3 events. It is the runner up who I liked the most from a future perspective. Get It On travelled well and hurdled well throughout keeping close tabs on Stow until the run to the last where he then looked tired. I think he will be seen to better effect on better ground and can pick up a seller but could well progress to becoming a fair handicapper. Has won twice at Market Rasen over the 19 on soft and good ground and has won over hurdles rated 122 in the past compared to today’s 116. On both occasions was held up and goes well for Paul Maloney.  I thought he looked close to his best today, met a useful seller opponent in Stow who has won multiple class 3 events and a small field in heavy ground over a trip short of his optimum would not have suited. One to keep an eye out for when conditions are in his favour.

TWO MILES FIVE FURLONG CLASS 5 HANDICAP HURDLE
NOTHING POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE
This was a moderate race run at a steady pace. Landenstown Star was a negative from my visit here on new years  eve and never looked like being a worry to being laid win (5/1) and place till the cows came home. Switch to hurdles appeared to be on a sort of confidence builder but from my perspective I didn’t think he showed much aptitude for the fight when the pace quickened approaching  3 out where he had every chance but plodded in from there to finish sixth of the thirteen. It wasn’t a hopeless run by any means but I still think he can be laid with confidence in subsequent efforts and a chased mark of 98 still looks around 10lbs off competitive. Of the remainder the ex Jim Bolger Galway winner Leyland was a bit disappointing as I thought he had form to suggest a competitive effort. However Wilson Renwick was showing him going past the jamstick first time and Leyland soon wilted when the pace was upped. He really didn’t seem to stay this trip in the mud and he might be better on better ground. His hurdling was a bit sketchy to say the least and as such I would leave him alone despite promise. In short the winner I Know The Code quickened up well off top weight to win readily, the Bogeyman ran prominently hurdling OK but seemed not to see out the trip to finish third, Petroupetrov ran in snatches and did fine to finish second but was caught out in my view by change of pace and once got going stayed on as such I think he could do with a three miler. Nuisance was very disappointing and was never going well, Sacco Doro didn’t seem to want to run was left at the start benefited by the slow pace and got into the pack again around half way but was soon cooked so the effort had probably drained him, one to avoid really. Lindongrove tried to make all and stayed on resolutely once picked up which showed good attitude.
THREE MILE CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE
SANDYNOW (pos)
Top race of the day and despite some fears that with several out and out front runners in the field giving the possibility of them ‘cutting each others throats’, this was run a decent but not crazy pace which meant this was a pretty fair test. The horse to take out of this was the faller at the second last Sandynow. Held up at the rear early on he was steadily produced from halfway and was on the heels of the leaders from four out. He looked all over the winner when coming between horse to take second approaching 2 out. The leader jumped markedly left over the obstacle and Snadynow looked unsighted pitched too steep and threw his jockey when buckling. Never really down was soon back in his stride and leaped the last riderless. Clearly nonetheworse for a bit of a soft fall and I would not hold this against him at all. This was his fourth ever chase is still a novice and this 102 mark is very fair. His jumping in general was much improved today and I would suspect he would be chalked out further in the odds because of this fall and some perception that his jumping is poor. I think he stays this trip and acts in this ground. He represents a decent chance next run. The winner Rebeccas Choice came from behind and benefited from Sandynow’s fall. Refitting of cheekpeices probably helped but not guaranteed to repeat trick! Second home was the old mudlark Mark the Book who was the cause of Sandynow’s fall in the main and stayed on for minor honours. Of the rest I though Mohi Rahrere (ran well in last year’s Midland Grand National) went fine till weakening about 6 out and was pulled up when pulled up 4 out  so not the best preparation if aiming at another tilt next month, Kilsascan is on a really decent mark of 90 and keeps running very well over these three mile and a bit races in the mud. Not necessarily a good win bet but when conditions are on his side off this sort of mark will always give you a good run for your money usually getting placed. Finally I thought Kilcommon Pride jumped well today. I think the 111 rating is a bit high, he does stay this trip but the deep ground is not in his favour he really needs soft at worst.
TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG CLASS 4 HANDICAP HURDLE
LE BACARDY (pos)
I thought they went a decent clip given the conditions in this event. My positive would go to the ex French debutant Le Bacardy who is in the main bred for the flat but has some fair form in France being 5th in an Auteuil  listed event before switching successfully four times in claimers. He wore headgear more often than not in France and raced today in cheekpeices. Entered at 120 in todays handicap which might have  been a bit stiff based on his form and I thought might drop a couple of furlongs to getr a better chance of lasting home. Acts on soft ground and like many French horses enjoys a bit of mud as that is about all the jumpers seem to encounter over there. Held up as usual and jumped fine getting into a strong position approaching 3 out just not quickening or lasting home as well as some but still a pretty decent GB debut suggesting he will pick up handicap hurdles in due course. Of the rest the runner up Hassadin looked very genuine if a touch one paced, Radmores Revenge ran well to be a staying on third and the winner Barrakilla raced wide on the better ground or ground which was not so cut up as the inside and asserted from being prominent approaching last to win easing down. Looked a fair performance in truth. Bound For Glory  didn’t hurdle that well and looked to me not to be that keen on the mud, Gud Day is about a stone too high in the weights off 118 and I would say definitely needs good ground having said that ran OK today just needs a  bit of respite from the assessor and the elements.
TWO MILES MARES CLASS 4 HANDICAP HURDLE
SCHOLASTICA (pos)
In my view the jockeys of the other runners let Lee Edwards get away with murder today and gifted his mount Dirty Deal a long and  soft lead which they never really got to grips with. Edwards took maximum advantage and played a waiting in the lead job dictating the pace brilliantly. Having establish a long t[lead he let the mare have a breather down the backstraight and this let the field take closer order. He then let her down again entering the straight and she zipped away for a comfortable victory. The main casualty of this was the best mare in the race Scholastica. She was caught flatfooted and just couldn’t get near Dirty Deal from approaching the last after trying to recover from an error two out which was vital to her chances. But to her credit she buckled down to finish second. She has now run well on all three races here. She opened her account first time up in a bumper and showed plenty of pace including a decent effort behind the progressive potentially high class Shutthefrontdoor beaten eight lengths in an Ascot championship bumper. Thumped a field of novices over course and distance to win second hurdle, was then a creditable third in listed event at Haydock. Off this 115 she can be considered very fairly treated and I think she will be better over further. Her final bumper was an excellent fifth in a very valuable Newbury event which had today’s 147 rated feature handicap at Newbury (Your Tent Or Mine) in the line up. I think flat tracks will suit her best and a sounder surface will also benefit. She is one to keep on your side in handicap events as 115 looks soft to me.

TWO MILE CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE
STARSKY DES MOTTES (neg)
Not a bad event with the winner Greywell Boy running well and showing good genuine attitude to come back from a defeat looking error to  get up readily on the run in. This led me to make the runner up Starsky des Mottes a negative as I thought he looked a bit ungenuine and so lay material in the future. That lack of tenacity is vital over the jumps. Of the remainder I thought Ballywhat ran well but jumping let him down a bit and that coupled with a 10lbs weight rise without winning a race must be very frustrating for Kim Bailey, he has been going well in his recent races but 120 is difficult for the assessor to justify.  AnayTurge ran with credit but his 7lbs hike to 117 did for him in my opinion.

DONCASTER 4TH FEBRUARY 2013

GOOD
VERY WINDY
2MILES MARES NOVICE HURDLE CLASS 4 4YO+

CALL ME A STAR (long term positive)

This was not a bad novice with the expensive French import Utopie Des Bordes made a short priced favourite. She won in fairly good style and looks a resolute sort but is very diminutive and I wasn’t that taken by her really. Of the remainder Terr Du Vent ran really well until a mistake at the last and was eased down a bit from there hopefully her ongoing OR will reflect on proximity to the 127 rated runner up and not the winner 146. I would say she looks a handicapper and off 115 would be fair. September Blaze also ran with much credit and she can win. However the most striking for me was second home  Call Me A Star. I think there are more hurdles for her to win as a novice especially if there is more of a gallop as it was a bit muddling today which I do not think suited her at all. But she is made to chase in my book and I think she is one for the future in that respect.

2 AND A HALF MILE CLASS 5 MAIDEN HURDLE

AAIM TO PROSPER (strong pos)

A very hot maiden for staying sorts which had several with good credentials but in the end revolved around three very good novices locked together coming to the last. The winner was the most NH of the lot Minella Forfitness who had picked up a bumper last year and ran well at Ascot earlier in the sason. Clearly a decent recruit and this may prove to be highly influential in the way the big staying novices are dolled out at the various festivals.  The second home was the progressively raced November Handicap winner here in the autumn Zuider Zee who also looks decent. However I was very impressed with the third home and multiple Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper. Hurdled well in the main but still open to more improvement as you would expect and was going best of the lot on the run to the last but was squeezed right out of it when making his run by Minella Forfitness edging across. This hampering I think was the difference between winning and losing and in any case if raced over further such as three miles will take all teh beating. A very nice horse and looks the part for hurdling in the long term towards the top og the staying hurdling tree.

THREE AND A QUARTER MILE NOVICE CHASE CLASS 4

RUBEN COTTER (pos)
Yet another excellent event staged by Doncaster as a replacement fixture for the loss of racing we experienced in January. The  winner looks a very decent staying chaser of the future. Although had a weight pull with the game runner up Vintage Star I felt the winner was a fair bit off top fitness and therefore sure to come on for this effort. He jumped very nicely throughout and showed stamina and resolution when lasting home to my eye a shade cosily. I am sure he can defy a penalty in similar company and would not be at all surprised to see him take a decent order in this years staying novice chasers. He would be rated on my estimation around 133.

TWO MILES LISTED HURDLE

Nothing to be noted other than Darlan looked classy until his distressing fatal fall. On a day when Mujamead met a similar fate in a class 5 handicap it showed that no Mr Henderson it is not always the good ones who die on the track. It will be interesting to see how Ms Balding tackles the big issues such as this one as she said she would one short week ago on Saturday’s Morning Line. I have been involved in racing animals long enough to know what happens but it is a bit of a bodyblow when you witness it yet again.

THREE MILES HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 5

MR ROBINSON (pos)

The stand out here was Mr Robinson who I thought ran a very promising race after a 82 day absence. Stayed the three miles and looks on a fair mark off 87 going forward.

TWO MILES THREE FURLONG HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 5

IT IS WHAT IT IS (slight pos)

A tricky race this one to dissect as a lot seemed to run in snatches including the slight positive and well backed runner up It Is What It Is. He is a very under-exposed 6 year old in any case and came here off 76. I thought in general he jumped OK if open to obvious improvement. If he retains this mark he must have a good chance particularly if in a novice handicap. Seemed suited by this trip but may stay a bit further based on this run.

TWO MILES THREE FURLONG HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 5

TANNERMAN (slight pos)

Another big field and another difficult race to examine. However I thought Tannerman could do better if raced in the future a bit closer to the pace. He was out with the washing for much and made plenty of late progress. He has done well in sellers at tight tracks so perhaps a return to those conditions in handicap company off this 95 or in the right conditions off levels might be the may forward .

LEICESTER
30TH JANUARY 2013
Heavy
Very Windy

2 MILES FOUR AND A HALF FURLONG CLASS 5 NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

SPECIAL ROBON (Pos)

To say this was an eventful race is a bit of an understatement. The hot favourite ridden by AP McCoy ducked lest and the first and deposited his rider on top of the fence and slightly hampered a few of the runners. This gifted an early soft lead to the gambled on Special Robon. He then jumped very well and straight throughout the race and still had the advantage turning into the straight when Liam Treadgold forgot which of the four fences were dolled off and raced around what would normally be the forth last rather than the final open ditch. As such Special Ribon has an RO against his name. The question is would he have won if his rider had been more attentive to the traffic signs? Some might have him down as a definite winner without a penalty but I think Treadgold was getting a bit serious about him entering the straight so there has to be some doubt. What is certain is that this was a significant improvement in his jumping and that means he is likely to improve on his current rating and therefore represents a positive in similar events. I wasn’t entirely sure he liked either the tightish bends or the fact he was going right handed therefore I would feel more confident is he was on a galloping left hander like say Ffos Laas or even Warwick. His form in France suggests that this heavy ground would not have been too much of a plus and I think he is best suited to two miles. His current mark of 99 compared to his GB entry point of 122 suggesting he is on a decent point. So Special Robon represents a positive, would be of interest to me if kept to his current 99 by the assessor, over around the 2 mile mark on goodish ground, ideally on a galloping left hander but this last stipulation may be shown as nonsense as there is only a flimsy bit of evidence to support such.

2 MILE CLASS 4 NOVICES’ CHASE

MODULE (strong pos)

A facile victory by the 1/3 favourite underlines the potential shown in previous efforts. However the manner of his jumping and how he cleared through the gears to pull clear without being asked any questions by Paddy Brennan suggests that Module will step up significantly in grade and looks a serious festival contender. I think he will stay 2m4 and given the standard of the Arkle this year my guess is he will be pitched into the Jewson unless under-rated by the handicapper (i.e. less than 153) which would then make the Centenary or possible. However in my opinion in the case of the handicap options ( and at the probable 150+ rating would get into the weights) I think a very strongly run event with a big field such as the Grand Annual would be the one I would really consider backing him in as his jumping looks very proficient and he will have no problem to my eye seeing out the fast gallop at the stiff Cheltenham track. Has a hurdle victory at headquarters to his credit and beat useful Colour Squadron at Newbury over fences.

2 MILES AND FIVE FURLONG CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE

TOPAZE COLLANGES (neg)

Has been on top form before coming here of a 41 day absence. He looked to me to be a bit behind and gave me the impression that he wasn’t completely wound up today. His OR has gone up from 95 to 104 during this winter and  looks challenged to win at this mark. However has had a good run in the last couple of months being only once out of the first two with gaining wins in heavy ground with headgear on and making all/most at Towcester and Lingfield with Noel Fehily doing particularly well on him. Is a far better chaser than the form he has shown over hurdles (is rated 10lbs better) despite not always jumping entirely fluently. Tried to make most as usual today but was not travelling great from about 4 out and coming into the straight the white flag was up and he was eased down to come home in his own time putting in a poor jump in between times at the second last. It could be argued that he is on a fair hurdle mark and his experience coupled with tactics / blinkers applied would be interesting.  Personally I would take him on until his mark moves down a bit to say 97.

3 MILES CLASS 3 HANDICAP CHASE

SEE U BOB (strong pos)

This race was won in good style by a very progressive novice Buddy Bolero on his handicap debut and looks a very useful staying novice chaser. In fact this looks a very good event as the fourth home Dashing George came out the following Saturday and picked up a decent Sandown handicap. However it was See U Bob who caught the eye. He hasn’t won for almost two years, but that win was in the Grade 2 Webster Cup Chase over 20 furlongs at Navan. Most of his winning throughout his career has been in the mud and again today he looked like he relished the ground. His form over fences in Ireland led to a 148 OR and so the 123 for this classy chaser looks a real opportunity. He has taken a bit of time to acclimatize to GB by the look of it, but now he is ready to pop in off this mark and is one to watch. He was held up early and some of his jumping over the first couple of leaps were not that fluent however as the pace increased his jumping really came together and I think he is ready to win off this mark.

3 MILES CLASS 4 NOVICE CHASE

THE MUSICAL GUY (wait)

Lovely big chasing sort closely related to Foxhunter hero Lovely Bud. Looked particularly well in the paddock. Had previously been well beaten by the runner up Abnaki over hurdles where he was a bit clumsy. In fact he struggled to land races over timber and his handicap mark started to go up without having done much. I am not suggesting that is why he has been switched to fences but to me he will be better over the larger obstacles. First run was a fair second at Folkestone but didn’t look completely fluent. He came to Leicester on what looked a fairly good chance of winning. However a mistake at the second last cooked his goose and he was fifth home. He looks to be one who is going to take some time to get his jumping together but when he does his current mark over this sort of trip would be at his mercy. He jumps reasonably fluently in the main and travels very well but there were several jumps which he got wrong which knocked him back a bit although they were not enough to rally threaten to part the jockey. His looks and bloodlines suggest he will make his mark but there is enough downside at the moment to keep him in the pending tray.

2 MILES CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE

SAWPIT SUPREME (continue to be pos)

She was a positive going into this race after a second at Uttoxeter in December and she was part of a fair each way mares’ double for me with a 7/1 and a 11/1 on USSEE at Ludlow. Not bad as they were both second, even better if they had won! Sawpit has run with credit but these two races have been in small fields and his two wins have been where there has been double digit fields. Especially when over this 2 miles she needs to make sure there is decent pace as she doesn’t really quicken but I think she benefits from being covered up as I stated in December as the wins have been when held up a bit. She does see out 20 furlongs but I would like her off this mark covered up in a 10 plus field. Not asking much! She ran pretty well today and was a clear second jumping well as is a solid jumper.