rebelfm

LEICESTER
30TH JANUARY 2013
Heavy
Very Windy

2 MILES FOUR AND A HALF FURLONG CLASS 5 NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

SPECIAL ROBON (Pos)

To say this was an eventful race is a bit of an understatement. The hot favourite ridden by AP McCoy ducked lest and the first and deposited his rider on top of the fence and slightly hampered a few of the runners. This gifted an early soft lead to the gambled on Special Robon. He then jumped very well and straight throughout the race and still had the advantage turning into the straight when Liam Treadgold forgot which of the four fences were dolled off and raced around what would normally be the forth last rather than the final open ditch. As such Special Ribon has an RO against his name. The question is would he have won if his rider had been more attentive to the traffic signs? Some might have him down as a definite winner without a penalty but I think Treadgold was getting a bit serious about him entering the straight so there has to be some doubt. What is certain is that this was a significant improvement in his jumping and that means he is likely to improve on his current rating and therefore represents a positive in similar events. I wasn’t entirely sure he liked either the tightish bends or the fact he was going right handed therefore I would feel more confident is he was on a galloping left hander like say Ffos Laas or even Warwick. His form in France suggests that this heavy ground would not have been too much of a plus and I think he is best suited to two miles. His current mark of 99 compared to his GB entry point of 122 suggesting he is on a decent point. So Special Robon represents a positive, would be of interest to me if kept to his current 99 by the assessor, over around the 2 mile mark on goodish ground, ideally on a galloping left hander but this last stipulation may be shown as nonsense as there is only a flimsy bit of evidence to support such.

2 MILE CLASS 4 NOVICES’ CHASE

MODULE (strong pos)

A facile victory by the 1/3 favourite underlines the potential shown in previous efforts. However the manner of his jumping and how he cleared through the gears to pull clear without being asked any questions by Paddy Brennan suggests that Module will step up significantly in grade and looks a serious festival contender. I think he will stay 2m4 and given the standard of the Arkle this year my guess is he will be pitched into the Jewson unless under-rated by the handicapper (i.e. less than 153) which would then make the Centenary or possible. However in my opinion in the case of the handicap options ( and at the probable 150+ rating would get into the weights) I think a very strongly run event with a big field such as the Grand Annual would be the one I would really consider backing him in as his jumping looks very proficient and he will have no problem to my eye seeing out the fast gallop at the stiff Cheltenham track. Has a hurdle victory at headquarters to his credit and beat useful Colour Squadron at Newbury over fences.

2 MILES AND FIVE FURLONG CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE

TOPAZE COLLANGES (neg)

Has been on top form before coming here of a 41 day absence. He looked to me to be a bit behind and gave me the impression that he wasn’t completely wound up today. His OR has gone up from 95 to 104 during this winter and  looks challenged to win at this mark. However has had a good run in the last couple of months being only once out of the first two with gaining wins in heavy ground with headgear on and making all/most at Towcester and Lingfield with Noel Fehily doing particularly well on him. Is a far better chaser than the form he has shown over hurdles (is rated 10lbs better) despite not always jumping entirely fluently. Tried to make most as usual today but was not travelling great from about 4 out and coming into the straight the white flag was up and he was eased down to come home in his own time putting in a poor jump in between times at the second last. It could be argued that he is on a fair hurdle mark and his experience coupled with tactics / blinkers applied would be interesting.  Personally I would take him on until his mark moves down a bit to say 97.

3 MILES CLASS 3 HANDICAP CHASE

SEE U BOB (strong pos)

This race was won in good style by a very progressive novice Buddy Bolero on his handicap debut and looks a very useful staying novice chaser. In fact this looks a very good event as the fourth home Dashing George came out the following Saturday and picked up a decent Sandown handicap. However it was See U Bob who caught the eye. He hasn’t won for almost two years, but that win was in the Grade 2 Webster Cup Chase over 20 furlongs at Navan. Most of his winning throughout his career has been in the mud and again today he looked like he relished the ground. His form over fences in Ireland led to a 148 OR and so the 123 for this classy chaser looks a real opportunity. He has taken a bit of time to acclimatize to GB by the look of it, but now he is ready to pop in off this mark and is one to watch. He was held up early and some of his jumping over the first couple of leaps were not that fluent however as the pace increased his jumping really came together and I think he is ready to win off this mark.

3 MILES CLASS 4 NOVICE CHASE

THE MUSICAL GUY (wait)

Lovely big chasing sort closely related to Foxhunter hero Lovely Bud. Looked particularly well in the paddock. Had previously been well beaten by the runner up Abnaki over hurdles where he was a bit clumsy. In fact he struggled to land races over timber and his handicap mark started to go up without having done much. I am not suggesting that is why he has been switched to fences but to me he will be better over the larger obstacles. First run was a fair second at Folkestone but didn’t look completely fluent. He came to Leicester on what looked a fairly good chance of winning. However a mistake at the second last cooked his goose and he was fifth home. He looks to be one who is going to take some time to get his jumping together but when he does his current mark over this sort of trip would be at his mercy. He jumps reasonably fluently in the main and travels very well but there were several jumps which he got wrong which knocked him back a bit although they were not enough to rally threaten to part the jockey. His looks and bloodlines suggest he will make his mark but there is enough downside at the moment to keep him in the pending tray.

2 MILES CLASS 4 HANDICAP CHASE

SAWPIT SUPREME (continue to be pos)

She was a positive going into this race after a second at Uttoxeter in December and she was part of a fair each way mares’ double for me with a 7/1 and a 11/1 on USSEE at Ludlow. Not bad as they were both second, even better if they had won! Sawpit has run with credit but these two races have been in small fields and his two wins have been where there has been double digit fields. Especially when over this 2 miles she needs to make sure there is decent pace as she doesn’t really quicken but I think she benefits from being covered up as I stated in December as the wins have been when held up a bit. She does see out 20 furlongs but I would like her off this mark covered up in a 10 plus field. Not asking much! She ran pretty well today and was a clear second jumping well as is a solid jumper.