rebelfm

31/12    Utt       
Shutthefrontdoor    WON 1/5    WON 9/2    Up £47
Go Annie             8th        Down £10
Landersons Star (n)    6th        Up £10
Lovely muck            6th        Down £10
Sawpit Supreme            2nd        Down £10
Bally Sands            P    WON 5/1    Up £40
Salto Chisco            2nd    WON 11/10Level

9/1    Donc        
Handazan (n)            3rd        Up £10
Ussee    2nd        Down £10
Soudain    4th            WON 3/1    UP £10
Conquisto            2nd        Down £10
Gores island            4th        Down £10

30/1    Leic       
Special robbon            2nd        Down £10
Module                    4th        Down £10
Topaz Collanges (n)    U        Up £10
Seeubob              2nd        Down £10
Sawpit Supreme            WON 5/1        Up £50

4/2    Donc       
Call me a star            WON 2/5        Up £4
Aaim to prosper            2nd    WON 13/8Up £6
Ruben cotter            F        Down £10
Mrs robinson            4th        Down £10
Itiswhatitis           
Tannerman            7th        Down £10

9/2    Utt       
Lowparklad            6th        Down £10
Getiton                    4th        Down £10
Sandynow            2nd        Down £10
Le bacardy            WON 8/1        Up £80
Scholastic            10th        Down £10
Starsky des mottes (n)    4th        Up £10

19/2    Weth       
A southside boy            WON 6/1        UP £60
Riskier (n)            6th        Up £10
Solis (n)            3rd        Up £10
Seeubob    4th            WON 11/4    UP £17.50
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Gandalfe            3rd        Down £10
Howards legacy            P        Down £10

6/3    Downptk       
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My belle annie            U        Down £10
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Betellingyoualie    2nd        Down £10
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Jezki                    WON 11/4    Up £27.50
Bailey green            P        Down £10
Loch ba    5th        Down £10
Sirene dainey           
Howrads legacy            P        Down £10

13/3    Chelt       
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Goulanes            2nd        Down £10
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Ruacana    6th        Down £10
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Our conor           
Manyriverstocross    4th        Down £10
Aaim to prosper            2nd        Down £10
Backstage            2nd        Down £10
His excellency            4th        Down £10

20/3    Warwick       
Priest island            Now chasing       
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Awbeg massini   
       
4/4    Aintree       
Ruacana           
The new one           
Bold addition           
Astracad (perth)           
Bathelezi   
       
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Bailey green            4th        Down £10
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Soll           
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Red courtier           
Seeubob           
Tuffstuff
           
15/4     Newcastle       
Princess phenny            4th                    Down £10
Salvatori fury            6th     WON 3/1    2nd WON 9/2 Up £45
Titus bolt            WON 5/2                    Up £25
Grand maestro            6th    WON 4/1                Up £10
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A southsideboy            WON 8/1                    Up £80

21/4    Winc            
Sound investment           
Fair trade (n)             U        Up £10
Solstice son
           
22/4    Ponte       
Heskin                  10th            Down £10
Gabrielthethug            4th        Down £10
Riptide                WON 12/1    UP £110

25/4    Newcastle       
Eastern impact      3rd        Down £10
Derby to dubai           
Poetic dancer
           
13/5    Doncaster       
Mutajelly    2nd        Down £10
Howzthefamily    WON 4/1        UP £40
Knight owl    3rd        Down £10
Bartack            WON 6/4        UP £15

28/5    Ballinrobe       
Sizing india           
Rebel fitz           
Good decision           
Desert hall   
       
27/5    Ballinrobe       
Modista          WON 3/1    Keep on there’s more    UP £30
Shahoola           
Totally centre
           
31/5    Epsom       
Liber nauticus           
Well acquainted           
Tres coronas           
Penitent           
Ighera   
       
3/6    Leicester       
Rundell           
Whaleweight station           
Archive           
Bajan bear
           
11/6    Worc       
Dardenella           
Frontier Vic           
Je T’Aime           
Tornado Bob
           
16/6    Carlisle       
Autumn Tide           
Salvatore Fury           
Little Jimmy Oddsox           
Forced Family Fun           
Silkenny           

WORCESTER
GOOD TO FIRM
11TH JUNE 2013

DARDANELLA
Ran second in debut in good paced bumper on fastish ground.  On the pedigree would look more a longer term prospect as there is plenty of stamina but ran with a lot of promise. Whilst this may prove a poor event you would like to think she could go well against her own sex somewhere or other.

FRONTIER VIC
First signs of any real progress today when staying on nicely without being unduly knocked about in 2 mile novice event. Had a sigle bumper outing last season when clearly backward and soon outpaced. Had two hurdles spin before today including a sketchy effort at Towcester. Much better today, looked like might need a bit further or a bit more juice in the ground (probably more the latter than the former) but enough here to suggest that he can win a novice some time soon.

J T’AIME
Probably the most likely of today’s eyecatchers to win. JT is very nicely bred being a half sister to the more than useful Invisible Man who was highly rated at OR145 at his peak winning class 3 events. Generally at his best on good ground and 20 furlongs plus including a victory ahead of Swing Bill and also won a decent event worth €12000 when well backed in late summer at Galway. Started her career with a well backed odds on shot but could only finish a onepaced third in a bumper. Then ran much better but again third in a Towcester bumper. Up in trip to 20f and over the sticks (brush hurdles) took a bit of time to find a rhythm but ran with increased confidence and staying on in good style but still a bit of a remote second. She looks a staying hurdler / chaser in the future but showed plenty enough today to suggest will be picking up novice events in similar company with 20 furlongs the minimum trip.

TORNADO BOB
One of my favourites from when I had him as an eyecatcher when within December 2010 at Uttoxeter. He then went on to win next run at Leicester before a very ueful runner up in a class 2 event at Aintree. That lead to his trainer putting him up for the Neptune at Cheltenham ehere he was pulled up and his form deteriorated from there. This was not helped by a welter of a rating at OR145 and gradually the assessor relented and bit by bit he had come down to OR130. Stuck pieces on him for the first time and gambled on at kelso last time out. After a reasonable start jumping went to pot. However at the subsequent enquiry the trainer stated that the poor run was attributed to loosing a shoe. Put all that behind him with a commanding front running performance where hurdling of these brushes was spot on. If the handicapper doesn’t take a strong view on things he can follow up and is in with a good chance if he takes his turn at Ffos Las on 20/6

CARLISLE
17TH JUNE 2013
GOOD TO FIRM

AUTUMN TIDE
Half brother to a Autumn Blades who was a OR99 rated winner of the seven furlong Earl of Grosvenor which is a Chester festival handicap and also a brother to another of today’s eyecatchers Little Jimmy Oddsox. Galley Girl is a full sister to AT and she won a group 3 juvenile race at Ayr. The third dam won the Irish 1000 guineas and the champion Irish 3yo Entitled is in the family. AT a late foal so entitled to be behind many of these other two year olds today but had clearly shown something back at home on this debut when nibbled at from 28/1 to 16/1. Showed some speed from the two furlong stick but was too far back when getting head around this racing palaver to be a factor and was eased down inside the distance. Good education and sure to have learnt. There looks enough in her performance and pedigree to suggest can be wining in maiden company. She looks one to keep an eye on.

SALVATORE FURY
Was a positive when I saw him run very encouraging race at Newcastle in April off OR54. He has shown gradual and significant improvement since I have been following him (although did not appear to appreciate Hamilton’s 6f when 5/7), was backed in a Beverly seller when second out of a favourable low draw and then looked well suited to Carlisle when  running on well after being given a lot too do finishing 4/10 in a bunch finish. Was always worth persevering with and won at 3/1 when taking it up at the distance. Followed up when being mugged at the post when second at Hamilton before today’s very smooth victory under a well timed Joe Fanning ride.  He took the shortest route and waited for the leaders to ease off the rail which enabled SF to surge through for a cosy win looking capable of winning again off this mark. A s a three year old entitled to continue to improve.

LITTLE JIMMY ODDSOX
Brother of Autumn Tide discussed above and has a very decent 6 furlong to mile pedigree. Took a bit of a walk in the market today from 8/1 out to 10/1 and looked like he got a bit of an easy today when 5/9 over 6f at Carlisle. Has not won since being very well backed in a Wolvo sprint in autumn 2011 off OR75 having won previously when again well backed at redcar. Now down to OR61 and likely to slip a little further after today on the face of what appears a moderate performance. Has been tried in all manner of gubbings. Has run well at redcar on several occasions and 6F looks best trip on a straight gallop. His mark looks good, I thought he ran well today being right up there till eased when not quickening at the furlong stick and when there is a bit of cut later in the season would be expecting him to at last pick up a small sprint.

FORCED FAMILY FUN
Well backed today from 5/1 down to 7/2. Held up a bit but once urged to challenge the leading trio had flown giving FFF no chance and the oddly named gelding was allowed to saunter home in his own time without undue punishment. He looks like he will need a reasonable amount of cut in the ground to be competitive and had his tongue tied back so might have a bit of a breathing thing going on. Raced off OR66 which is close to his last winning mark of OR65 so some room for optimism. His last win was over 10f at Nottingham in a nursery last year. He was ridden much closer to the pace that day than today and won without being put under too much pressure. This three year old campaign started with a couple of Kempton AW efforts, neither was much cop and may not be that much at home on poly. Then bizzarely tried to make all over 14 furlongs at stiff Sandown with fairly predictable consequences at the quarter mile marker. Today was a more encouraging run which is unlikely to have been even an amber warning light on the handicapper’s radar. Suits 10f possibly up to 12f but a bit of cut would help.

SILKELLY
Wore a hood with those things over the ears all through parade and during the race so clearly bit of a skittish filly. Acted up going out the ring 9tugging and bouncing around like an unbroken mustang) threw jockey emerging from the parade ring and continued to get into a bit of a stew which would have had her hyper before going in the boxes. Pulled hard in the race and led till weakened from 2f out and finished a fairly remote 5/10 and an uneasy favourite in the ring. She did though show some very nice pace and you would think that she can will fair races off this OR75 if they can straighten her out. Took a good while to get herself sorted as a two year old being well beaten on her first couple of runs at Ponte and Ripon. But showed good pace when 5/13 and then won in style making all and beating a subsequent winner by an easy two lengths on her final effort of the season at Thirsk.  Started this season off well with a game victory over seven furlongs at Musselburgh.  On her pedigree (full sister to Izzibizzi) it suggests she will be bestt suited by seven furlongs.

BALLINROBE
SOFT
MILD EVENING

9 Furlong 3yo Maiden
MODISTA
Half brother Handwoven ran well in a juvenile event at Leicester later in the week. Another half brother Elhamri was a moderate grade but consistent sprinter on the all weather in sprints.  Race run at good gallop and M got left a bit as was slow away. This was a very nice debut as got left a bit early but then finished fast behind a very experienced O’ Brien one in King Of The Romans. Think she can win a maiden but I would like to see her step down in rip a bit get covered up and then use the sprint pace her pedigree says is in there somewhere.

9 Furlong Fillies race
SHAHOODA
Looks very high quality and looking at her running in the Cheshire oaks earlier in the month where I am not convinced the track really suited I can see her turning that form around in time. She quickened up nicely when shaken up. Second home has since been beaten so that knocked the form a touch, however that filly is a bit of a mudlark and the prevailing going that night was fast ground. S has won on The Curragh when beating O’Brien’s Hanky Panky (since then was fancied and not disgraced when 7/15 for the Irish 1000 guineas this year) S was slow into stride tonight, not really at home on these tight turns at Chester so was held up till produced just after halfway to get into contention but was eased from the distance when beaten. Has entries in the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks. I like the former for her.

20 furlong Maiden Hurdle
TOTALLY CENTRE
They were using brush hurdles by the look of them if that is worth noting, not sure myself. He was not always that fluent and hurdled a bit carefully. He was driven up to challenge long time leader going out on the final circuit and quickly assumed dominance looking the winner from before two out. Still green but with plenty of scope looking the sort to be better on good ground. Only his fourth time out over sticks.

BALLINROBE
HEAVY
SUNNY EVENING

2 mile maiden hurdle
SIZING INDIA
Entered here for his first run over the hurdles in a maiden event and jumped fine in the main. Ran well but looked in need of run as has been off the track for some time now. He was  probably inconvenienced y the deep ground.  I had seen him win well on his debut across in England over two years ago in a bumper he looked a very nice sort and I noted that evening as follows  ‘The Nicky Henderson trained debutant Sizing India looked a very useful sort in the paddock, decided to ship The Champ en route to the start, raced a bit greenly but when produced from 3f out he showed smooth acceleration and won in the manner of a very useful recruit. Looks more a hurdler than a chaser, at 6 years old he needs to get going and he could prove very useful in next year’s novice hurdle events. As such I am sure we will see him out again soon, perhaps even the champion bumper at Punchestown where he must have a good chance. Wherever it is he ends up next he is going to follow up in a bumper. The reason for such a delay for his racecourse appearance was that he was never right last year due to worms and casting. ‘ He did go over to Punchestown and led into the straight but couldn’t quicken finishing a not bad fifth. A couple of good novice hurdlers and chasers came out of that bumper so not a bad quality at all.  So this was an encouraging return after two years off, he has plenty of ability but is an 8yo with only two races in the book so must have had training setbacks since 2011.  I think he can win a maiden.

17 furlong Beginners Chase
REBEL FITZ
Very good second race over the larger obstacles tonight after a succeful and high class hurdling campaign marks RF as a positive going forward. A bit early in the season to start thinking about champions but he went like a dream from what I could see, he hammered them into the ground and was eased right down to a walk with Barry Garraghty having either applied superb judgment or he could have been mugged as the result from being 20 lengths clear over the last to holding on by half a length. Exaggerated tactics, but you ask yourself did Gerraghty think his horse had gone a bit? He did suffered cut to off hind which looked only superficial plus he didn’t look lame after the race. He was very good as a hurdler and in fact won last year’s Galway Hurdle which makes you think a bit chase there in the late summer might end up being on the agenda. The trainer was bullish after the event marking out the festival as a probable but another step up in chasing class was the next step planned sometime in late June / early July.

19 Furlong Handicap Hurdle 0-116
GOOD DECISION
Top weight and went for much of the race but when looking likely to take a hand approaching two out went out quite tamely to finish fourth. In truth his best runs have all come with ground good or on the fast side so he clearly looks like he is not at home in the mud. I thought he looked capable of doing OK off this 116 mark but has not won off more than 90. General goes better fresh and has had two quick runs now. Expect to see him in the late summer and hopefully off a lower mark, he has run very well off 113.

EPSOM
GOOD TO SOFT
VERY SUNNY AND WARM
Mile and half a furlong group 3 Princess Elizabeth race for fillies and mares
IGHRAE
Out of Frond. Started life in 2yo maidens in GB with little success. Switched to France and has wintered wellwinning listed Longchamp mile event with a bit of cut. Then beaten in a group 3. Missed kick and tracked in on rails in rear and was a bit off the pace at the top iof the hill. In a strong run race looked to have little chance as still not produced coming into tattenham corner when he looked a bit green coming down the straight and not totally at ease with the camber. But was quickening without getting to challenge the elader. This was a very encouraging run for a 3yo and looks likely to stay further or run better on a less undulating course and/or better ground. His half brother although no more than fair did stay 10f indicating that a run over that trip might be optimal.

10F HANDICAP class 2
TRES CORONAS
Missed the kick and settled at the back in a strongly paced handicap. He quickened up best of field being switched wider to get some room and stayed on well. Has had a 6 pound hike for recent good runs and has been in very good form recently going up the handicap as a consequence from 76 to 89. Best form with some cut in the ground.

8F Group 3 Diamed Stakes
PENITANT
Bit careful arounf tattenham corner but when shaken up got going showed very good pace. Ahead of him Producer and Gregorian were mucking about boring into each other and at least one of this appeared a bit doggish. As Producer weakened P had to thread through gaps and did so readily. Beaten in Dubai on seasonal reappearance and was beaten after being prominent for much of the way in Lockinge. Clearly retains plenty of ability and is a genuine sort always worth considering in Group 2 / 3 company over a mile where there is a bit of cut.

12 Furlong Group1 Oaks for fillies
LIBER NAUTICUS
Having won the Musidora this very inexperienced filly was expected to run close in the Oaks. Way hard driven from 3 out and responded but weakened from a quarter of a mile out and was eased down a touch to finish 5th. Looked to be better suited by 10f. However damline contains Conduit and Hard Top plus Oaks winner so it would be a surprise is she doesn’t stay a mile and a half. There is still strong pace in the line with guineas winner. So I would be much more disposed to back her ovedfr 10f and not sure if the going didn’t contribute a little to her run. The Musidora form was franked when third home Woodland Aria went on to comfortably land a Leicester Conditions race a few days after the Oaks which I saw when I went to Leicester.

7 Furlong Listed Surrey Stakes for Three Year OIds
WELL ACQUAINTED
Not totally at home on these undulations as is a long striding filly but still managed to get up in this listed event. Out of Stunning Rose. This was her second win at Epsom but her secong in Group 3 Sommerville at Newmarket as a 2yo stands out as her best run. I think she is ideally suited by a galloping track sure as Newmarket and good ground would be to her advantage.

LEICESTER
GOOD
SUNNY AND WARM

10 Furlong three year old handicap class 4
RUNDELL
decent effort off OR 80 stayed on well. Won Bath maiden at seond time of asking as a 2yo and his first run as a 3YO was a good runner up in a warm event at York over similar trip. Bit unluck at York and this again looked a good event for its class. Fair prospect.
2 yo Maiden Stakes over 6 Furlongs
WALEWEIGH STATION
Nice debut looking a tidy sort quite forward and would expect him to win possibly at a slightly less demanding track

Mile Maiden for three year olds
ARCHIVE
Very decent first effort and would expect more from her particularly against her own sex.

7 Furlong class 5 handicap
BAJAN BEAR
Been off for eight months and this was a likeable run in third which augers well. Can win off this mark of 68.

DONCASTER
13TH May 2013
Good to Firm
Strong Headwind nice and dry mild for time of  year

MUTAJELLY (strong pos)
This was a strong maiden for three year olds. The winner had run fourth in the Wood Ditton (which is form working out well) the second home was a strong finishing newcomer Stableford (nicely bred 10f horse in the making from Highclere family) and useful stablemate to M in the form of Defendant who was green in the paddock and seemed to fail to see out this mile (looks more a 6/7f horse on pedigree) Mutajelly had raced closer to the leaders on his debut in the Wood Ditton when holding every chance till fading and finishing a 3 length fifth. A very creditable effort in a strong race. Today was ridden with a lot more restraint and was settled in mid division. Produced what looked far too late and was easily the quickest going home when produced to be fourth. He clearly has plenty of speed. He is brilliantly bred being a half brother to 2000 guineas winner Makfi and is closely related to Authorise. I am sure this classy looker will make listed with time and I would not be surprised to see him in 9f/10f races.

HOWZTHEFAMILY (watch)
This was a strong 2yo maiden. Only three turned up. The favourite was the only one to parade well. The other two were skittish and spooked by the wind. In fact H was particularly bad in the paddock. The favourite in the race was confidently ridden and in fact for a three runner event the pace was pretty good really so not a cat and mouse affair. H was outpaced early but got himself  in with a chance approaching the distance but failed to quicken off this strong pace and came home tenderly ridden to be beaten 10 lengths. He looks the sort to do OK in nurseries in time. But is still very green and dam side has a bit more stamina than sprint so perhaps once tried over 7f later in the year might do well. In the meantime i will keep an eye on him and hope he sorts out his temperament.

BARTACK (???)
An exciting class 4 miler for 3 year olds was won narrowly by Derwent who was running for the first time since being gelded. Cracking finish coming home with Grandorio an evens favourite racing on a penalty but well in on next handicap rating finishing third and my eyecatcher B losing by a head in second. B looks an awkward one to find right as has been a photo finish loser on last three runs. Watching it today even though it was only a head I never thought he was bearing down on the winner enough to take the race. If he was a greyhound you would almost think he was a bit of a dodgepot. However it could be that the winner was particularly genuine and battled on.  Tricky one to call so I will watch his next run with interest.

POETIC DANCER (pos in right conditions)
Just touched off in decent class 3 company over 7f at Doncaster today. Raced off  85 today which is a fair mark for her.  She managed to win a Newbury maiden and then showed gradual improvement in nurseries until winning one off 84 again at Newbury this time over 7f. Was poor handicapping as a 3 yo and then had a short winter campaign on the all weather  when never disgraced but never in the frame.  Back on the turf after a five month back and a market springer down to 8/1 she led until close home with the pair a comfortable 3 lengths clear. This was a decent ride by claimer Ryan Tate with this more progressive tactic suiting her as she hasn’t got a lot of acceleration but gallops at a decent speed over this 7f.  Capable of winning off this mark 2 from 2 at Newbury is possibly significant  but more so is her good to firm form of 3/14, 1/15, 6/15 1/12, 2/14

PONTEFRACT
22Nd APRIL 2013
FOOD TO FIRM
Sunny with a strong breeze

HESKIN (pos)
They didn’t look a great set of maiden 2yo fillies with only three standing out in the paddock being H, Mops Angel and Lady Liz. There was money for Duffield’s Hello Beautiful  (encouraging first run in second) and  Shellys Choice was not unfancied (tied up late after looking to feature n finish suggesting the stamina sapping hill here had got to her. It is H that I think has the most potential going forward. Looked well but obviously the run would do her good. She went down fine but was slow into stride and took some stoking up to get her running and once she did she showed plenty of resolution and clearly cottoned on to what was expected. I am sure she will come from this and win next time up. Half sister to Tagula Knight who is not a bad sprinter winning winning generally in class 4 off near top weight on undulating tracks probably preferring a bit of cut. She is also half sister to Suited And Booted a class 3 handicap winner who was best on fastish ground over 7f to a mile. Sire speed adds to the conclusion that she will do fine this spring and ids a March foal so no maturity issues in early season to worry about.

GABRIEL THE THUG (watch)
This was a dreadful race really. Dorfman was sweating and nervy in the paddock and was reluctant going down and then was pulled out due to a spread plate! Noble Bull was kicking and bucking in the paddock before hand clearly celebrating the liberty of recently being relieved of his gonads although ran on for second, or was it plodded through the beaten pair in the final furlong? GTT sweated up and looked agitated  and I think ran his race before he was in the stalls to an extent.  He did look like he needed a test when third at Kempton over 10f so a step up to 12f looked in his scope and off 70 looked a more than reasonable mark. However if he has a temperament problem then winning is going to be difficult and so is best watched. 

RIPTIDE (pos over  timber)
Longest race on the flat calendar the Pontefract Marathon over  close on two and three quarter miles trip. This was knicked by a brilliant ride by Freddie Tykicki on Kazbow. However my eyecatcher was Riptide who was well behind at halfway and looking like going nowhere but stayed on very well to pick up into second was eased a bit close home and finished third. He looked very well in the paddock and a return to fastish ground three miles over hurdles can see him back winning again. His last mark of 103 looks very fair indeed. Some commentators believe he has some temperament issues but I didn’t see any of that today. He looks a bit one paced but that doesn’t mean he cannot win again.



WINCANTON
21ST APRIL 2013
Good to Firm
Nice mild spring day

SOUND INVESTMENT (pos)
This was a fair bovice hurdle over 2m4 and SI looks one for the future and will stay further than this trip. He hurdled smoothly and was always in command  pushing on from approaching two out to win as he liked. He had just the one bumper as a 4yo and is progressing nicely over timber. Won on soft ground at Taunton when a bit novicey and then was a shade disappointing in a class 3 event at Fakenham. Today’s win represented progress and clearly is at home on fast ground so perhaps it is the going that is the key to him. Can still win races during the summer despite more weight. 
HATTERS RIVER (leave alone now he’s won)

He was a positive for me to follow when I saw him run well but looked like he needed the run when  a close up 6th in reasonable Doncaster handicap. He then ran well to be 2nd next run at 4/1 just outpaced close home over 20f, then blundered away chance when looking the winner 2 out and finished 3rd at 11/2 at Newbury. Today’s win was a grinder when it looked like he had it in the bag  from 2 out. He hurdled better today and he stayed the 22f OK. It could be that he is a wait with horse in truth as finds little when ahead. He has done well to win as has gone up the weights a bit and probably will go up more after this win. Still a nice SP 5/1 and having got a win out of him I think following up will be hard and he’s style of running doesn’t do my heart much good!

FAIR TRADE (neg)
I thought this was an unsatisfactory race in many ways for future opportunities and the winner  of this maiden I think will struggle to defy a penalty. However he has a lot of decent flat form and was thought highly enough by connections when with David Elseworth to have a crack at the 2000 guineas where he was not disgraced when 10th beaten 9 lengths. Was also fourth in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury and third in the Group 3 Jim Joel Stakes at Newbury all as a three year old.  Form on the flat deteriorated a bit and was off the track for all his 4yo campaign indicating something amiss and OR went right down. Not fluent in opening two hurdle races but flat pace made sure he was in with a shout finishing placed. Slipped under radar when bumper races opened to allcomers during the freeze meant that he was a group class speedster against genuine NH plodders and he scooted in off levels.  Was then easily beaten returning to timber and with today’s race a bit of a farce I do not think we have learnt much about FT and in fact I think he will be over-rated under priced and therefore a decent lay option.

SOLSTICE SUN (pos)
Yet another slow early paced bumper making it difficult to see future winners in this sphere but acts as an obvious window for future hurdler. I though the second placed SS looks a real good prospect going forward. He’s only a four year old and showed plenty to like about his stamina and pace today coming out the pack and gaining on the winning favourite. He is half brother to the very useful  Karasenir who was rated 137 over hurdles last season and won novice chases at Uttoxeter and  Stratford. Karasenir won a listed novice hurdle at Kempton.  Karazhan is another half brother and his form figures are 2111 with plenty of promise in that 5yo who has won his only start over timber. So clearly plenty of ability in the family. Definitely promise in bumpers but a really nice prospect for the future. His brothers seemed best at 2 miles but one of them stays 2m4. There is a preference for good ground and none of the brother have won on extremes with soft being as bad as they won on.

AYR
20TH APRIL 2013
Good if on the fast side a bit
Sunny dry

COVERHOLDER (too high in weights)

This was a quite reasonable level of handicap as a class 3 race over two and a half miles. He ran really well today being in midfield until produced from about a mile out to take closer order. Had every chance two out but weakened a bit in the final quarter of a mile to finish only about five lengths off the winner. He is basically a very good hurdler in terms of technique  and has improved leaps and bounds this season. Was a difficult ride in his early efforts where often refused to settle his early races were also littered with jumping errors. Because of this he found himself on a pretty decent mark of 70. And with the soft and heavy ground he prefers(or seems to) he ran up a five timer mainly over around 2 miles. He did win over 20f but he slammed a field of four finishers winning easily so was not really tested at the tight Bangor track. He then found himself racing off 117 and running with credit on galloping or stiff tracks on good or fastish ground over too far. So in conclusion I still think there will be more races over hurdles for C but I think he needs a bit of cut and around 2 miles to be honest. I saw him win easily at Wetherby in February and was impressed how smoothly he took command in a race where the fourth home followed up with a win so clearly not a bad race. But at the moment I think 116 is about 6lbs higher than I would lke to see him. He has had eight runs since December so perhaps a freshening up and a return in the autumn in softer ground would be sensible.

CHANGING TIMES (neg)

The champion novice chase was won by Rajdhani Express but the main focus is likely to be on CT tipping up. However he had made mistakes before in the race so it was not a complete surprise when another blunder led to unseating his jockey. He had done similar in the Jewson, was not fluent when last in the Scilly Isles and even his early novice chase runs had been littered with blunders. So on the basis of a high OR of 152 (he was top rated today so looked reasonably treated in a close to levels race) and the fact that he is not a good jumper I think he may well represent a decent laying opportunity as sentiment may blind odds takers to the facts.

COURT MINSTREL (pos)

The Scottish Champion hurdle is a limited handicap and was won with absolute ease by the well ridden but clearly talented CM. He was a very decent bumper horse last year winning a couple of small events at Ludlow which gave confidence of a good run in the Aintree champion bumper won by the very good The New One with Mytentoryours in second. CM was very respectable fourth with plenty of good novice winner in the future behind him (for example hatrick winning Minella Fortfitness). Has then gone on to win novices on goodish ground at Plumpton and Cheltenham as well as what looked an encouraging close up third to Dodging Bullets (who has since been let down but breaking bloodvessels). Clearly needs good ground but after today will be significantly higher than his 141 OR. However I was very impressed today and think there is more to come over hurdles when he meets good or fastish ground.

CONQUISTADOR (Continues to be a pos)

Had him as a positive when I saw him chase home Overturn when he looked a very competent novice chaser. After that he was a disappointing second at a tight track (kelso) when hampered in a three runner event (bet that takes some doing, as we used to say in greyhounds would find trouble in a solo).Followed up with very easy win at more galloping Southwell but not at very rewarding odds of 1/2. He was then entered in a class 2 very valuable novice handicap chase when he was a decent third but a little bit disappointing without there being an obvious problem as seemed to jump pretty well and the course should have suited as was a galloping circuit. Today he jumped them into the ground and was a very impressive winner. He was a rewarding 5/1 which makes a good return. Looking at his form the common trends are stick to minimum trip, pretty well acts on any but good ground is a clear bonus, appears to be better on left handed galloping tracks. If he isn’t jacked too far in the weights from current 138 (perhaps max 145?) and then is a proposition.

GODSMEJUDGE (pos)

After seeing GMJ run so well at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Chase I felt that at a stiff track and soft ground he would get 3m5 but would struggle to get 4 miles. I thought that his entry in the Whitbred was his likely target and felt that he had a great chance in that race. However then being entered in the Scottish Grand National on good fastish ground at the flat galloping Ayr track would put far less stress on his stamina than Cheltenham in the mud would do. As such he was confident choice and at a returned 12/1 was superb value in my book. He galloped really well today and in fact his jumping became better and better as the race went on having been a bit scruffy on occasions on the second lap today. He is only a seven year old so has lots of scope to be even better. Started life in points in Ireland where he won his third effort in a moderate event. Didn’t do too badly over timber winning at Huntingdon and Uttoxeter. Much better over fences including very good win in heavy ground over 3m2 at Warwick beating the useful Keppois Hill. Also a less than length second in grade 3 class 1 handicap over 3m5 against seasoned handicappers in very valuable Warwick event. Had the grand National winner 46 lengths behind him that day when GMJ was getting a stone and was only 5lbs worse off with Auroras Encore today. In conclusion GMJ is improving fast, at seven you would image his sometimes sloppy jumping willimprove, his 139 mark might be under some pressure now but he can shoulder even more. He needs good ground on a flat / easy track to stay 4 miles but at short of that say 3m5 he will be fine a more stamina testing track. He is an early entry into next year’s GN and there are worse options.

NEWCASTLE
15TH APRIL
GOOD GOING
VERY WINDY CAUSING STRONG HEADWIND DOWN THE STRAIGHT

PRINCESS PHENNY (pos)

Opening race runners in the two year old maiden were all newcomers with several looking very green in the paddock. However the front four finished well clear of the remainder and they looked a precocious bunch. The first two, Pigeon Pie and PP quickened better than Robynelle and Lexicon Rose but the latter pair still look quite good at this stage in the season. It was though the runner up PP who caught the eye for future races. Her dam was never tried over short trips and she had enough ability to win over a mile and a half at Downpartick. The second dam is closely related to Pharaohs Delight who won G1 Phoenix stakes and was third in the Nunthorpe as well as the L’abbeye. Red Rocks a multiple group winner including the Breeders Cup turf again shows plenty of class in the stock. With an eye to jumping the family includes Medicinal who was a decent chaser finishing third in a grade 3 event and being rated 144 at his prime. Was third in two group 2 races on the level over 10f. PP looked in fine condition  in the paddock today. Well backed 5/2 favourite. Raced green being pulled to run against the rails.  But showed plenty of resolution under pressure picking up to almost mug winner on the line. Plenty to like about this filly who has enough speed in the family to suggest a run soon over the minimum at a stiff track will suit. Stable in fine form at the moment so expect a quick follow up as this early foal (Feb) will have gained from this experience.

SALVATORE FURY (pos)

A class 6 sprint handicap for three year olds did not look too promising but there were a couple here who had run well recently Edith Annie had won at Redcar ahead of Megaleka  (disappointing sixth and seventh today suggesting it was a weakfish race)and Jofranka (won well today) had been very promising second at Catterick.      So plenty in it who looked straighter than my eyecatcher  and third home SF. A gelding out of Nocturnal  who only raced over 5f and in truth appeared to struggle over even over that trip to stay but was rated 96 after only three efforts as a three year old, She has produced a listed runner up from only eight foals to date. The family has plenty of sprint speed in it but many looked good over a mlle.  Missed the kick today  and was dropped in being held up. Had a bit of an awkward head carriage looking like he was distracted easily. But he stayed on in good style over this 5f trip looking like he needed 6f and I think capable of winning a minor event off this OR 54 which is well down on this AW rating of 62. This rating was based on a good 6th over 7f here followed up by and even more encouraging  second over 6f on the AW both in nurseries. Didn’t seem to stay 7f when tried over that trip again and then blew chances mucking about at the start at Musselburgh followed by hating the mud at Redcar. His quirky nature may well suggest that blinkers might help his concentration. He looks a fair option over 6f off this 54OR and on decent ground. I think he is most likely to pop up somewhere like Musselburgh or Hamiliton and hopefully with some headgear.

TITUS BOLT (pos)

In form trainer Richard Fahey won this in a driving finish with Going Grey and it looked a competitive event. However the fourth home TB and fifth home Regal Swain both made eyecatching late progress. The latter probably was the most flashy but it is Jum Golie’s TB who I will be looking out for going forward.  TB’s family has some interesting members including the winner of a grade 2 juvenille hirdle and the Oaks heroine Sariska. There is plenty of stamina in there in the form of Ascot Gold Cup placed Compton Ace and winner of Cesarawitch and Irsih St Leger. So on the basis of pedigree he looks made for NH with enough in there to suggest would benefit from 20f over sticks. He was settled in midfield on the outer today as the main pack lobbed along a bit and the frontrunner had gone for gold and had a massive lead coming into the straight. However in this wind it is hard to hold on to such a long lead and he was reeled in about two out. As a consequence the race was not run at a strong pace and this did not suit TB. He made smooth progress from 2 out and was given a considerate ride not being knocked about at all to finish a very close fourth home. He had already run over timber and is very promising over obstacles clearly showing enough at home to be entered into the Scottish triumph hurdle at Musselburgh where he finished 5th as such his OR over sticks of 110 might make it difficult to land a handicap but he is an unpenalised novice so surely he can pick one of those up in Scotland? Continues to look well treated on the level off 58 which is not far off his winning mark on firmish ground at Windsor (battled well that day after being held up) He has been visored in the past but hasn’t worn one for ages and in fact doesn’t seem to be worthwhile. In short TB looks an interesting proposition on firmish ground over 10f and can win a novice hurdle.

SIZE (pos)

The seven furlong maiden was a funny event. There were two runners  Big Johnny G (6 runs and won today) and Nurpur (8 runs and well beaten today)  with bags more experience than the rest.  It was one of the newcomers Size who caught the eye. He is a four year old gelding having blinkers on for his debut so you would image he has been a right handful getting broken. He dwelt in the stalls and was soon behind but was bussled up to get on the rails as a bit of a distraction. He settled then and was moved to the centre of the track to make an effort approaching 2 out.  He quickened fine and looked to be able to give the much more experienced Big Johnny G a fight for it close home. But he ran green or hung about in the final furlong. He is a strong sort of horse and looked to need the run as was a bit burly to my eye. He is nicely bred by and Eclipse winner out of a line which has produced recent listed winners and placed in Lowther and Albany group races. The winner was rated 75 today so off levels you would hope Size might come in on say 72 and if so when he is eligible to do so I think a mile handicap will be in his scope. However  at the moment I will pass on his temperament and just put it down to greenness for now.


A SOUTHSIDE BOY (watch)

He was a good positve when I saw him run with promise over 2m at Wetherby earlier in the season appearing to need a further trip over hurdles. He then followed up very profitably over 20f at Ayr returning at 6/1. He appeared on the flat today in a class 6 handicap over a mile and a half. He led or disputed the lead till outpaced from about two out. He tried to stretch them today but the pace was never really enough to put most of the field in difficulty and coming into the straight there looked at least half a dozen ready to pick ASL up. It was still a fair effort, he looked in good shape today and may well run a good race if put back over hurdles but for me he is a watch for the time being.

STRATFORD
13TH APRIL 2013
GOOD GROUND
Weather OK in general but couple of brief showers

URCALIN (POS)

Won a couple of bumpers in France on good ground but was hammered in the mud so it is clear that his horse is unsuited by mud and goes well in good ground. Started hurdling in a fair event at Sandown where he was looked after in heavy ground. Ran well with considerable promise. Improved next run again at Sandown this time ridden closer to the pace and held every chance but just couldn’t quicken in the soft ground to finish fourth. His dam was very decent in France winning four times. She has produced good horses in the past winning good races at such as Auteuil.There are very good horses in the family including Haul Knight a group 2 winner and third in Champion Stakes. Also very high quality hurdler Flown (won Supreme novices’ and second in the Christmas hurdle). Followed up when running on much better ground, being held up and produced from 3 out to join issue on run to the last and quicken nicely to win well. Looks a decent one on good ground, will probably be best suited by the minimum trip and restraint but in the right conditions looks capable of shouldering a penalty successfully.

RED COURTIER (STRONG POS)

Saw him run very well at Warwick last time out and was a very strong positive to follow up. Is a useful flat horse and his hurdling is neat suggesting capable of much better even over a longer trip. Was very impressive today winning with plenty in hand and  suggesting that he will be winning again. His 9/2 was a great price.

SEEUBOB (WATCH)

Have been waiting for him to run over short of 3 miles for some time. He was a positive when I saw him run at Leicester finishing second off 123. He then ran with credit again over a slightly longer trip than ideal when I saw him run at Wetherby. Stepping up to 3m2 at the tough Carlisle course and despite looking the winner two out weaken to be fourth. He then  met better ground than the soft or heavy he had to endure to date, was put over a sharp track and over a furlong shy of three miles. The combination did the trick as expected and not a bad price being backed down from 7/2 to 11/4. He still looks like he has a bit in hand but I am not sure how much. A seven pound penalty and 130 might just be beyond him so after this win I will reluctantly but him as a watch now.

TUFFSTUFF (Hurdler to watch out for next season)

What looked a good bumper with previous winner at Bangor and good runner up under a penalty  to subsequent Aintree  champion bumper fifth, was a little disappointing as fancied Baltimore Rock fell away after leading for much. Irish Cavalier was a debutante who was fancied but didn’t really quicken up. It was another new boy  who caught the eye with a fast finishing third having been taken care of in the early stages of the race. Tuffstuff looks the typre to do well wen put over hurdles looking classic NH in conformation and I will be backing him when put over timber. However these bumpers are often falsely run and he looks like he will need a gallop so whilst he looks made to follow up from this encouraging first run I would not be backing him in bumpers.  Life Line did not make the track. Only Balludaily made the frame in points. However the third dam Deep Line is very well bred being sister to Granville Again and Morley Street. Close family includes Hand Inn

FONTWELL PARK
11TH APRIL 2013
Soft dead ground after heavy overnight rain
Not too cold and overcast little wind

SERIOUS MIXTURE (pos)
SM led for much of the race and hurdled really well in this two and a half miles novice hurdle but never really stretched the field and was a bit of a sitting duck  when picked off approaching the last by the very experienced in this sphere hot favourite Seebright. SM was reported as having finished tired and in truth the going was very difficult to get through today.  On balance though I think SM stays this trip fine but I would like to see him pushing on at a faster pace next time out as has the ability to pick up a reasonable novice event. Good strong looking ex Irish pointer who I think will be OK over fences in due course but in the meantime can win over hurdles based on this effort.

HOWARDS LEGACY (needs good ground so remains a pos)
This looked a good novice chase with the Paul Nicholls’ horse Bucks Bond, a dual chase winner on tight tracks Camden as well as HL pitting wits. It developed into a right slog going home between C and BB with the latter just prevailing. HL was one I had liked a lot when he won a good novice at Leicester. Having seen him run two times before this run I had formed the opinion that this is a difficult horse to ride as has his quirks. But today his jumping was very poor jumping with little confidence and although never looking like he was going to fall he was losing so much ground at each fence that  Aidan Coleman had little choice but to pull him up rather than risk injury. Whilst he has ability and you have to be wary that he could slot in sometime, I would have left him alone because this was a step back from his excellent Leicester grade 3 win. However as I noted in my Leicester and Cheltenham spiel  this horse needs good ground, a strong jockey and 3 miles. This sapping ground was all against him and he is still worth perservering with in the summer.

BELLOSGUARDO (worth a look so a slight pos)
This was not a bad race for a grade 5 16f handicap hurdle with the rapidly improving Goochypoochyprader skipping clear from the turn into the straight to win with style and clearly this 6yo is a step ahead of the handicapper being at the top of his form. She beat off several combatants and it was the staying on Bellosguardo who stood out as the most likely future winner given continues off a 94 mark in this grade. He finished in good shape and is clearly fitter now from his exertions at Chepstow. I think he looks like he will be better on good or faster ground ov er perhaps two and a half miles trip.

SEVEN NATION ARMY (pos)
Super looking grey gelding who came to GB after a useful Naas bumper third. Made all in htis bumper and quickly put them to the sword 2 furlongs out. He looks a very good hurdler in the making and can win bumpers off a penalty.

JOLLYS CRACKED IT (pos)
Well bred being a half brother to the very high class Crack Away Jack. Built on his first run fourth today with a very encouraging runner up to such a high quality bumper winner. He quickened fine but was eased a bit when it was clear Seven Nation Army had the race won.

AINTREE
6TH April 2013
Good
Sunny 

UTOPIE DES BORDES (pos)

Has some very useful French form including when winning a grade 3 chase at Auteuil over 2m6 in very soft ground and then the 4yo championship grade 1 over same CD in heavy ground. She then won a couple of moderate novice events for mares at Doncaster and Sandown before stepping up in trip and fifth in the A Bartlett at the festival behind the very classy At Fishers Cross. Dropped down in class and ran with great credit today to finish a staying on second. However I think the faster ground may have counted against her and so will be better when the ground is softer. I saw her win at Doncaster where she beat a very decent one in Call Me A Star where she quickened we. Of the others the fancied pair Dodging Bullets (saw him drop out tamely in the Supreme when it was reported that he had breathing difficulties and bled) again bled today and Up And Go was soon beaten. The winner Ubak had been promising in good races before this but it was still a bit of a shock that he galloped well clear of the field today.

BAILY GREEN (pos over 20f + on soft ground)

Was a positive out of the Arkle but ran very poorly today when being pulled up. Jumping was nowhere near as fluent as it was at Cheltenham and having never been able to get competitive was pulled up soon after halfway. Has had a busy season being on the go from May when winning Rosscommon novice chase. Then extending winning run to seven before good placed efforts in grade 1 and grade 2 events before the Arkle. All his best form has been with plenty of cut, appears to me to have a round action indicating a pronounced preference for cut and his running may well have been in part going related.  However things went wrong from the first fence blunder so the going cannot be entirely to blame. Still a positive and will give him plenty of room after such a good race in The Arkle. Of the rest Bryan Cooper rode a good race on the outsider Special Tiara and his skill is hardly news, Overturn jumped really well today in contrast to Cheltenham and the better ground was probably a contributory factor.

AFRICAN GOLD (POS)

This meeting is setting up any return to racing for Big Bucks as Solwhit and At Fishers Cross are viable alternatives. Solwhit was again very impressive winning at he liked today. However the standout for me was the novice African Gold stepping up to take on the experienced horses after some good efforts this year in novice company. Last time out was a highly respectable runner up to At Fishers Cross having won modest events at Doncaster, Wetherby and twice at Newbury emphasizing that flat galloping tracks are probably optimal all in soft or heavy ground. Was up with the pace throughout today and looked to be taking a hand in the finish when still close up at the second last. However appeared to weaken from the last giving the impression that three miles stretches him a bit too far and that a 2m6 may prove his preferred trip as all wins over hurdles have come from20 or 21 furlongs. Cracking horse and sure to go on next season. His dam was unraced. The family has some decent runners over the sticks including Calling Brave (2nd in Challow Hurdle and winner of the Pendil Novice) Farmer Brown (winner of grade1 Galway Hurdle) and Farmer Jack (winner of the Aon Chase). 

LOCH BA (bit high in the weights off 137 at moment)

Had him as a slight pos from Cheltenham when I felt the nature of the course caught him out. Not a bad fifth today racing fine and certainly better than at the festival. He is 12 pounds above the last winning mark  and my guess is would need to come below 130. Flat tracks suit and this sharp course should have been OK on the basis of two Kempton wins. Acts on any going. Has won over a more testing three miles as well as over 2m5 on a sharp one so the trip was no problem. Is only seven so plenty of time.

SOLL (pos)

Couple of errors at tricky fences (Canal Turn and Chair) but apart from that this was a very good run over these fences by an eight year old being up with chances until weakening from two out to finish a creditable seventh was more eased when held so I am not saying he didn’t stay so is one to watch for next season’s event. Was no mug in Ireland winning points and then opened account when still trained in Ireland at Newcastle over hurdles, returned home and then won over fences at Punchestown and Down Royal. Bought down when well fanciedin the national hunt chase over 4m at 2012 festival behind today’s third Teaforthree. Probably asking a bit for one of limited experience to have a go at the Hennessy (decent eighth and only beaten 5l by Teaforthree getting only 4 pounds) and then last of the finishers in a real Welsh Grand National slog. Won a class 3 easily at Sandown before grand national effort. I thought he jumped the fences well in general but just got a bit tired.  Very promising young staying chaser and worth following.

LE BACARDY (too high in the weights off 130)

Was a strong positive after I saw him run well in fourth at Uttoxeter. He then followed up off 120 over the 2m1 trip which suits at Newbury coming in at a rewarding 8/1. Went right up in the weight after to 132 for the Imperial when finished seventh without really threatening to get involved. Down to 130 but similar story in this conditional jockey’s event holding a bit of a chance two out but failed to quicken. Not a bad handicap hurdler but needs to come down a fair way to be considered and my guess would be 125 could be attractive.


PURPLE BAY (Pos as a hurdler)

Was an eyecatcher at Cheltenham as a hurdler for next season. Followed up promising fifth in the champion bumper with a very good fourth in grade 2 event at Aintree. Ridden up with the pace looked the winner coming into the straight but when hit the noise of the crowd was clearly spooked and ran green in the final quarter mile. I doubt he would have won if keeping straight but would obviously have gone closer. Well bred for the game and has plenty of pace.