rebelfm

AYR
20TH APRIL 2013
Good if on the fast side a bit
Sunny dry

COVERHOLDER (too high in weights)

This was a quite reasonable level of handicap as a class 3 race over two and a half miles. He ran really well today being in midfield until produced from about a mile out to take closer order. Had every chance two out but weakened a bit in the final quarter of a mile to finish only about five lengths off the winner. He is basically a very good hurdler in terms of technique  and has improved leaps and bounds this season. Was a difficult ride in his early efforts where often refused to settle his early races were also littered with jumping errors. Because of this he found himself on a pretty decent mark of 70. And with the soft and heavy ground he prefers(or seems to) he ran up a five timer mainly over around 2 miles. He did win over 20f but he slammed a field of four finishers winning easily so was not really tested at the tight Bangor track. He then found himself racing off 117 and running with credit on galloping or stiff tracks on good or fastish ground over too far. So in conclusion I still think there will be more races over hurdles for C but I think he needs a bit of cut and around 2 miles to be honest. I saw him win easily at Wetherby in February and was impressed how smoothly he took command in a race where the fourth home followed up with a win so clearly not a bad race. But at the moment I think 116 is about 6lbs higher than I would lke to see him. He has had eight runs since December so perhaps a freshening up and a return in the autumn in softer ground would be sensible.

CHANGING TIMES (neg)

The champion novice chase was won by Rajdhani Express but the main focus is likely to be on CT tipping up. However he had made mistakes before in the race so it was not a complete surprise when another blunder led to unseating his jockey. He had done similar in the Jewson, was not fluent when last in the Scilly Isles and even his early novice chase runs had been littered with blunders. So on the basis of a high OR of 152 (he was top rated today so looked reasonably treated in a close to levels race) and the fact that he is not a good jumper I think he may well represent a decent laying opportunity as sentiment may blind odds takers to the facts.

COURT MINSTREL (pos)

The Scottish Champion hurdle is a limited handicap and was won with absolute ease by the well ridden but clearly talented CM. He was a very decent bumper horse last year winning a couple of small events at Ludlow which gave confidence of a good run in the Aintree champion bumper won by the very good The New One with Mytentoryours in second. CM was very respectable fourth with plenty of good novice winner in the future behind him (for example hatrick winning Minella Fortfitness). Has then gone on to win novices on goodish ground at Plumpton and Cheltenham as well as what looked an encouraging close up third to Dodging Bullets (who has since been let down but breaking bloodvessels). Clearly needs good ground but after today will be significantly higher than his 141 OR. However I was very impressed today and think there is more to come over hurdles when he meets good or fastish ground.

CONQUISTADOR (Continues to be a pos)

Had him as a positive when I saw him chase home Overturn when he looked a very competent novice chaser. After that he was a disappointing second at a tight track (kelso) when hampered in a three runner event (bet that takes some doing, as we used to say in greyhounds would find trouble in a solo).Followed up with very easy win at more galloping Southwell but not at very rewarding odds of 1/2. He was then entered in a class 2 very valuable novice handicap chase when he was a decent third but a little bit disappointing without there being an obvious problem as seemed to jump pretty well and the course should have suited as was a galloping circuit. Today he jumped them into the ground and was a very impressive winner. He was a rewarding 5/1 which makes a good return. Looking at his form the common trends are stick to minimum trip, pretty well acts on any but good ground is a clear bonus, appears to be better on left handed galloping tracks. If he isn’t jacked too far in the weights from current 138 (perhaps max 145?) and then is a proposition.

GODSMEJUDGE (pos)

After seeing GMJ run so well at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Chase I felt that at a stiff track and soft ground he would get 3m5 but would struggle to get 4 miles. I thought that his entry in the Whitbred was his likely target and felt that he had a great chance in that race. However then being entered in the Scottish Grand National on good fastish ground at the flat galloping Ayr track would put far less stress on his stamina than Cheltenham in the mud would do. As such he was confident choice and at a returned 12/1 was superb value in my book. He galloped really well today and in fact his jumping became better and better as the race went on having been a bit scruffy on occasions on the second lap today. He is only a seven year old so has lots of scope to be even better. Started life in points in Ireland where he won his third effort in a moderate event. Didn’t do too badly over timber winning at Huntingdon and Uttoxeter. Much better over fences including very good win in heavy ground over 3m2 at Warwick beating the useful Keppois Hill. Also a less than length second in grade 3 class 1 handicap over 3m5 against seasoned handicappers in very valuable Warwick event. Had the grand National winner 46 lengths behind him that day when GMJ was getting a stone and was only 5lbs worse off with Auroras Encore today. In conclusion GMJ is improving fast, at seven you would image his sometimes sloppy jumping willimprove, his 139 mark might be under some pressure now but he can shoulder even more. He needs good ground on a flat / easy track to stay 4 miles but at short of that say 3m5 he will be fine a more stamina testing track. He is an early entry into next year’s GN and there are worse options.