rebelfm

CHELTENHAM
12TH MARCH 2013
GOOD TO SOFT
VERY COLD SOME SLIGHT SNOW

TWO MILES NOVICE HURDLE

JEZKI (pos)

The real question of this race is which of the first three locked together has the most potential going forward. The winner Champagne Fever stole a bit of a march and dictated pace and although quickened well I doubt or at least there is a doubt  he would win if they broke from stalls. The much vaunted My Tent Or Yours raced well and looked to be going best from the second last but flattened out a bit so you have to question whether this track was suited to him, I think there are doubts and a flatter track like Haydock will probably suit him. Finally there is the younger Jezki who cruised up coming to the last where he made a right pigs ear of it landing on all fours but still quickened up and was staying on up the hill. His the one for me for the future particularly at tough tracks has won twice at Naas which I think always takes a bit of getting.

TWO MILES NOVICE CHASE

BALLY GREEN (pos)

You might say this was all about toughening it out after dropping a swede and one of the differences between Simnonsig and Overturn was that the former clobbered a few and paid no heed and the latter went to pieces when he smacked the third last. However for me the star of the race and the one I would follow closely is outsider and runner up Bally Green. Big imposing sort, jumped great throughout and in fact to my eye he was the most accomplished jumper in the field.  Has won over two and a half miles in Grade 3 company without being extended. He wouldn’t be the first gold cup winner to come out of an Arkle. Think of Kinging King beaten narrowly by a specialist and top class two miler in Well Chief back in 2004. Bally Green could follow suit. Remember KK didn’t tackle three miles plus over ny obstacle until the gold cup he won and his first run over three miles was the King G he won.

THREE MILES CLASS 1 GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE

LOCH BA (pos)

I think this young chaser is on a fair mark and needs to tackle a flat track I am not convinced this was his running and he didn’t seem to gert on with Cheltenham

TWO MILE CLASS 1 GRADE 1 CHAMPION HURDLE

HURRICAN FLY (neg)

A great winner coming back to regain the crown for the first time since the great Comedy of Errors and is the last winning 10 year old the enigmatic Sea Pigeon. Well all due respects to HF but to me he is not quite up to the SP class and with the welter of new kids emerging on the block both in Britain and Ireland I cannot see him winning many races next season so with reluctance I have to have him as a negative.

TWO AND A HALF MILE MARES HURDLE

SIRENE D’AINAY (POS)

The great  Quevega is peerless amongst her sex that’s for sure. But could we be seeing the emergence of a tough mare who didn’t have the mud she is used to and didn’t dictate the pace until about threequarters of a mile from home. She looks one to keep on one side and I would say this was no fluke run.

TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE

HOWARDS LEGACY (pos)

As I said in my Leicester spiel this horse is not an easy one to get on with and needs strong handling and in my book at this stage of their careers I would have a Coleman on this one before I had a claimer on. He was going OK in midfield until stoked along five out, down tools at four out and pulled up two out. Not his running and hopefully the assessor will  chalk him at around 130. Goes well in good ground and on flat tracks which are essentially galloping either right or left handed and remains a pos provided off a decent mark and with an experienced jockey.

CHELTENHAM
13TH MARCH 2013
GOOD TO SOFT
COLD SUNNY SPELLS

FOUR MILES NOVICE CHASE FOR AMATEURS

GODSMEJUDGE (pos)
I thought ran well just didn’t seem to stay this extreme trip. Didn’t really stay the 4 miles but was game and stuck to task looking like 3m5 would be within his scope. Jumps well and can pick up races off this 139 mark.

TWO MILES AND FIVE FURLONG NOVICE HURDLE

THE NEW ONE (pos as a chaser)

Might be being talked up as a champion for next season and was impressive with good turn of foot but I fancy him as a chaser with potential to win an Arkle one day.

THREE MILES NOVICE CHASE

GOULANES (pos)

Got himself into all kinds of traffic problems but ran with credit and might not be on a bad mark after this. Looks a decent handicapper in the making. Has developed into a very nice three mile novice chaser and one to keep an eye on seems best with sift ground.

TWO MILES CHAMPION CHASE

SPRINTER SACRE (pos)

It will take while before he gets caught up. Impressive in jumping only when flying at the fences was quite ordinary at his slower paces. Will obviously continue to be a stone ahead of the other two milers for a while including Simonsig.

TWO MILES FIVE FURLONGS HANDICAP HURDLE

BARBATOS (pos)

Ran a good race without likely to ruin his mark so one to keep a look out for. Has won at Aintree and his 137 adjusted mark over around 20f looks interesting. Was held up today and got too far off the pace but was hampered and got into bother when making a run and was eased from that point. Wins have come when held up.

TWO MILES JUVENILLE HANDICAP HURDLE

RUACANA (pos)

Eyecatcher without being too obvious I thought he looked good today. Half brother to Dr Finlay who has been reasonable to date over hurdles rated at one stage 105 but still a maiden.

TWO MILE CHAMPION BUMPER

PURPLE BAY (pos)

Looks a very good novice hurdler in the making next season. Dam was a winner at 3 in an Ascot maiden after a very good stab at the 1000 guineas when 6th of 18 and has thrown six winners from eight foals which is a pretty good rate. Swinging Sixties. Second dam won the Lowther and threw Moon Ballad (won Dubai world cup and Dante) very closely linked to high class hurdler and decent chaser Buena Vista

CHELTENHAM

14TH MARCH 2013

COLD SUNNY

TWO AND A HALF MILE NOVICE CHASE

DYNASTE (pos)

Jumped great but I am not entirely sure Cheltenham suits. He will stay three miles on a soft track and watch out for next season’s King George with him.

THREE MILE HANDICAP HURDLE

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (pos)

I continue to be convinced that he is best on a less undulating track. I didn’t think he got up the hill that well and looked a little bit uncomfortable. Hurdled well at speed for a novice and off this mark there will be a decent handicap over three miles to be had.

TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG GRADE 1 CHASE

CUE CARD (pos)

Great round of jumping and blew some very good horses away. Of all the five championship races (some say this isn’t but two and half mile chase is a specialist department and needs to be recognized as such) Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre look the ones most likely to retain their crowns next season.

THREE MILE CHMPIONSHIP HURDLE

OSCAR WHISKY (neg)

Looked absolutely cooked and he comes out this side of October represents a decent lay even at his second home of Aintree. But of course what do I know other than what my own opinion tells me.

TWO MILE FIVE FURLONG HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

SHOEGAZER (pos)

Stayed on well without getting too much air time after a mistake hen beginning to hake headway definitely didn’t help his cause and as such others will have impressed the handicapper more. Comes out a pound down at 145 which looks very fair.

THREE MILES ONE FURLONG AMATEUR RIDERS HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 2

NOTHING STOOD OUT

THREE MILES SEVEN FURLONG HANDICAP CROSS COUNTRY CLASS 2

SACREE TIPY (pos)

Excellent first effort on the novelty course. Could make up into something reasonable at this discipline and maybe give the North a chance of competing with Ireland at this event.

CHELTENHAM

15TH MARCH 2013

TWO MILE JUVENILLE HURDLE grade 1

OUR CONOR (pos)

Brilliant. Looks like and has a fantastic neat hurdling technique comparable to the great Buck House. I will be amazed if Our Conor doesn’t win the champion next year and I think he has the scope to make a chaser despite being essentially a flat bred horse there is some stamina and chasing in amongst his blood. Never ahs a Triumph been won with so much ease and this was a high class running. Might prefer the mud but I would say his action does not mean he will be inconvenienced by fastish ground. Best novice at the meeting.


TWO MILES HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (pos)

Decent hurdler with plenty of nice form in the past and ran a sound race ready to win soon. Stays 20f and seems suited by undulating courses. 138 is slightly off his last winning mark of 134.

THREE MILE NOVICE HURDLE GRADE 1

AAIM TO PROSPER (pos)

I had him as a positive coming out of a decent event at Doncaster and he won at a reasonable price when tried over the three miles.  My view is and was that this is a high class novice and he hurdler fine today. He is a high class handicapper over long distances on the flat, you do not win back to back  Cesarewitches the second of which was off 9-10 nearly two stone more than you carried in your first victory (Giving Countrywide Flame a stone and half almost by the way) if you do not stay at a fast pace. So what went wrong today? Well forget about an out of sorts Nicholls yard, they still had plenty running well they just haven’t got the same firepower we are used to, the rain would not have helped as his best runs are on good ground. But most importantly his wins have all come on big galloping tracks. So let’s hope he has a fair mark coming out of this, say 127 and let’s keep the faith for another race hopefully a decent spring handicap.

THREE AND A QUARTER MILE CHASE GRADE 1 GOLD CUP

NOTHING

THREE AND A QUARTER MILE HUNTER CHASE

BACKSTAGE (pos)

Although pulled up in the Foxhunters, stacks of them did for some reason or other. Not a bad run and on better ground at Aintree could do well although in the GN I would think the scouse version of this event more appropriate.

TWO AND A HALF MILE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE CLASS 2

NOTHING

TWO MILE HANDICAP CHASE CLASS 1 GRADE 3

HIS EXCELLENCY (very tentative pos) 

Although a faller I thought he was going ok without being hard driven and so he is a tentative positive. Although after four days of this I am getting a bit fatigued so this one might look like a crackers call. Was a very good juvenile hurdler in Ireland winning the grade 2 event over xmas 2011. Needs a fast run 2 mile chase.