rebelfm

Off to Catterick tomorrow. I haven’t been there for a couple of years and although hardly a very inspiring card I am looking forward to having a good look around again.

First race is a five furlong maidens stakes for two year olds. The best of the runners with form is Superplex (April foal) who was a beaten favourite last time out having run a fair second when building on his debut. But still runs green and although will probably prefer this sharp five from a stamina perspective, will need to break sharp to win (given as lay of the day Fav). Of the others with form Nameitwhatyoulike (February foal) has shown no speed in three runs, Dolly Danca (May foal) is going the right as has shown speed in both of her races to date and Duke of Aricabeau (February foal) well bred in comparison to most and looks to be in need of a bit further and this sharp five is unlikely to serve him well. There is one colt amongst the newcomers who is the January colt Ralphy Boy who is from the sprinty ‘silca’ line so could be quite good (1st 11/4). The new fillies to racing are Elsie Tanner ( a middle distance bred April foal from the Old Vic line which implies soft ground preference), a March foal Look Here’s Lady (looks a decent sprinty sort with plenty of listed winning relative so one to watch) and Minniehaha (cheap May foal who is sprint bred).

A 1m6 selling stakes has a couple which stand out on OR but neither looks out of their class. Summerlea comes out best in but this is based on Irish forms and this is his first effort over here after an absence of several months which hints that there has been training set backs in the recent past. He has run his best race to date over this distance on firm ground in Ireland (that means you only sink slowly if you stand still long enough) at Tip. I think he remains best watched. White Deer who is also well in has only won his four races over around a mile so why after forty odd efforts try this trip. Mark is coming down so maybe looking at a class 6 so let’s watch to see if they try to be prominent and clock a time over the mile and then slot in over a mile somewhere in the future. Remember he has won at class 4 and 5. Capable Guest (3rd) is not badly in and is now on his 98th run which is some going. Has been running pretty well and this is a race he ran very well in last year. Perhaps if raced a bit closer to the pace he can win this. Silent Lucidity looks pretty useless and has multiple efforts over this sort of trip without looking likely to win in class six handicaps, has won a seller way back in his three year old season. You can afford to watch this one win whenever that may be. Just Observing has his first go at this trip having run very well recently over 18 furlongs over the hurdles at Market Rasen and with a fixture due there in a couple of weeks could well be lined up for there. However this is a drop in class for him on the level, has run ok in the past but is on the downgrade and probably best kept to the jumps, cannot see him having much of a chance today. Bring Sweets has had a couple of hurdles efforts including in a good class 3 seller and winning at Wetherby. Has some fair efforts on the fibressand over 1m4 and was third when hampered over course and distance in a three year old seller. Not without a reasonable chance and as a comparative youngster at four open to more improvement than most. The other four year old is Wingnaprayer who looks absolutely useless and his pedigree does not scream stayer.

Five furlong handicap class 5. A proper sprint with everyone a distance winner and a fair sprinkling of CD. I think this track brings out specialist speed merchants so looking at the CD first. However Ridley Didley is more at home coming off the pace and has won at several galloping tracks. He is in good form only up a few pounds for that win and clearly cheekpieces helps to settle as he tended to be too free as such is an interesting runner. Kyzer Chief has had a funny career, won over CD a month ago but seems to have been anchored by the four pound rise in the weights. Spirit of Coniston has had 102 runs in his career and is a three time winner here but is a class 6 horse and I think there are better handicapped more progressive horses in this race. Bahamian Ballet is very much a light of former days and it was a long time ago that he won over CD. The youngster in the field is four year old Ignatieff who has fallen to an OR 9 pounds below his last winning rating. This is his first run at Catterick and  previously had won at Mussleburgh and Thirsk so this track may suit him. Has plenty going for him today. Lucky Art[/b[b]](1st 7/2) has been mixing turf and sand with success until being run out of it last time out at Beverley. Has run with credit over CD but has yet to win here. Wicked Wilma has not been that successful off this mark, not run that well over CD and cannot see her winning today.

Class 4 handicap over six furlongs. Only one CD in the field today. Legal Eagle (likes to bowl along and won this race last year off 5lbs less. Good run when last over a sharpish six and better without clobber on. Has a definite chance today but I am not a fan of the cheekpeices on him to be honest). All other runners have won over this trip. Top weight Bonnie Charlie had some excellent Group 3 and Listed form as a two year old and progressed to good runs in the Prix Eclipse and Horris Hill Stakes. This led to a quite high handicap mark but this has bit by bit coming down but first run of the season wasn’t that great and may still be a bit off his best. I think he still has a good handicap sprint in him this year probably at a stiffer track over the six. Viva Ronaldo is another to have run with credit in group company as a juvenile. Appears to have hit hard times as has slumped to battling out middle order handicaps on the sand. Pedigree suggests he is better over seven. Roker Park appears to be better served by stiffer tracks but has run well at that odd course Chester. Excusez Moi is pretty well exposed and looks a bit under the handicapper’s thumb . Not won for more than two years which I doubt is likely to change anytime soon. Caranbola was a decent two year old filly finishing second by a neck in the listed Hillary Needler Trophy at Beverley. Has turned into a Beverley staple of late and might find this track too sharp for her.


The Im4 maiden stakes attracted some modest sorts. The oldest being the six year old mare called Rosie Raymond. She is jump bred and has been hopelessly outpaced in bumpers and  maidens holding no optimism of a closer effort today even in this company. December is of even less potential looking absolutely useless. There are two four year old Jersey Joe (tried in a couple of bumpers and three maidens but hold no promise at all) and Tasman Tiger ( useless). This really leaves the race to the two three year olds. Good Faith (may prefer the extra half mile but has shown such low ability that it is difficult to see the necessary improvement to win) this leaves King Of The Celts (1st)as the only possible winner on the basis of consistency, relative ability and stamina to say this trip. Really cannot lose and any price better than ¼ offers value.

The class 6 handicap over six furlongs is a seller bar the auctioneer. Ursus is the only CD winner in the field (is now back on the 53 mark he won on CD last summer. Has been racing over the sticks in most recent runs without any success. Recent flat form has not been that encouraging). There are two other course winners, Babyshambles (2nd 8/1) (all six wins have been over five but on an OR of 58 looks attractive and his running style now seems to suit a sharp six so has a chance especially as has shown form here) and Red Hot Momma (may well be better over seven). Three other horses have won over six furlongs these are top weight Boy The Bell (is in good form and recent fast finishing over an inadequate five here with only a small penalty makes him a shortlist entry) Welcome Approach (useful on the polytrack and suits a stiff track) and This Ones For Eddy (another who appears to be better suited by stiffer tracks). Of the others North Central[/b[b]](1st 5/1) is very interesting as was favourite being beaten a length in this race last year and is now off a mark 8lbs lower, is improving since seasonal reappearance and last two runs have been encouraging over too short or too stiff tracks to keep weight down. Could well be a plot this. Red Rhythm is in his first handicap for Micky Hammond. Mark of 59 is about right but be cautious as bled last run when odds on.

Class 5 handicap over seven furlongs. We have three CD in the race today. Noufoud (twice a close winner here however return run over CD was very poor and that gives doubts as to being in the right form to win today), four year old Ellies Image (a specialist over this CD but has had three poor runs the first of which there seemed to be something amiss when last running over CD) and Dhhamaan (blinkers applied does the trick and has won exclusively over the seven especially on fast tracks but has not won on anywhere near this mark since doing well in three year old claimers ages ago). Thinking has also won at Catterick  but seems better over the six. There are seven others who have won over this trip. Cyflymder (better on stiff tracks), Island Chief (appears to be better over a mile), Powerful Presence (badly handicapped on turf), Lindoro ( sharp sevens suit and ran well at a stiff track last run emphasising well being not to be lightly dismissed), Gemmas delight (best left as not running that well at the moment) Silly Gilly (about 6lbs too high in the handicap) and Crocodile Bay (probably better suited by a mile). The other two are Our Boy Barrington (much better over the mile) and   Call Of Duty (another miler)

How did we do £10 level (EW IF 20/1 OR HIGHER)and £5 f/c when more than one selected. Balance £145.35 profit on the day


Race 1 1st 11/4 (27.50)
       2 unplaced (-20)
       FC x6  (-30)
       Lay fav (10)
Race 2  3rd fav (-10)
        1x unplace (-10)
        FC x2 (-20)
Race 3  1st 7/2 (35)
        2x unplaced (-20)
        6x fc (-30)
Race 4 1x unplaced (-10)
Race 5 1st 1/9 (1.15)
Race 6 1st 5/1 (50.00)
       2nd 8/1 (-10)
       2xFC 41.55 (202.75)
Race 7 1x unplaced (-10)

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