Racecaller08

The Arthur Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth day of the Galway Festival which kicks off on Monday 25th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive but it has been a good race for punters recently with 4 of the last 5 winners being very well backed.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-14
5yo: 3-8-49
6yo: 4-8-59
7yo: 1-9-46
8yo: 1-4-24
9yo: 1-0-8
10yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 5 or 6: 7-16-108
All other ages: 3-14-100

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 6-5-64
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-25-144
Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 6 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing approximately 31% of the total runner. They have also accounted for 4 of the last 5 winners.
Top Weight: 030066P002 (0-2-10)
Horses carrying a penalty (1-4-9) have a decent record, gaining 1 win and 4 places from just 9 runners.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-3-31
Horses rated 120 to 130: 7-18-124
Horses rated 119 or less: 1-9-53
7 of 10 winners were rated between 120 and 130, though they represented almost 60% of the total runners, so that is hardly a strong trend.
In recent years it has swung towards higher rated runners, with 3 of the last 4 winners being officially rated 130 or higher.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts (exception was runner-up in previous year's Galway Hurdle on last hurdles start)
8 of 10 winners won or placed on their last hurdles start
10 of 10 winners posted their highest hurdles RPR on one of last two starts
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 times over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 7 to 13K (but no higher)
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
5 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): PF0 (0-1-4)
Tree Care Hurdle winner (Oneeightofamile): 21 (1-1-2)
Three.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Johnny McGeeney): 71300 (1-1-5)
Wellingtonbridge Novice Hurdle winner (Redera): 1 (1-0-1)
Ladbrokes.com H’cap Hurdle winner (Princeton Plains): 0040304 (0-3-7)
Grimes Hurdle winner (Captain Cee Bee): 662 (0-1-3)
www.thetote.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Jack Cool): 40P0 (0-1-4)
London Southend Airport EBF Handicap winner (Silk Hall): 06 (0-0-2)
Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov Hurdle winner (Oilily): 00 (0-0-2)
HotelMeyrick Novice Hurdle winner (Force Of Habit): 07 (0-0-2)
Gerry Igoe Land Drainage H’cap Hurdle winner (Redera): 05F (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in Three.ie handicap hurdle at Punchestown, finishing 413
3 of 10 winners ran in the UAE Handicap at Curragh, finishing 436
2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ulster Derby, finishing 52
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 20
5 of 10 winners had run in a flat or NH race at previous Festival

Trainers
Pat Flynn (1-1-2) has saddled Bahrain Storm to finish 1st and 2nd in the past 2 years.
Dermot Weld (1-1-13) and Noel Meade (1-1-18) have also both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Donald McCain (1-0-1) and John Kiely (1-0-2) have both trained the winner once in past 3 years.
Trainers who have saddled multiple placed runners in the past 10 years include Thomond O’Mara (0-2-3), Jessica Harrington (0-2-5), Dessie Hughes (0-2-5), Willie Mullins (0-2-5), Tony Martin (0-2-5) and Eddie O’Grady (0-2-6).
British based trainers (1-1-11) have gained 1 win and 1 place from their 11 runners.

Price
6 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) were priced 7/1 or shorter and came from the first 3 in the betting. However there have been some big upsets in this race too, with the other 4 winners going off at 16/1, 14/1, 33/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-4-10) have won the race twice in the past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 5 or 6
•    Carrying 10-7+
•    Horses carrying a penalty do well
•    Horses officially rated 130 or higher have done well recently
•    Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts
•    Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
•    Won or placed on last hurdles start
•    Run in past 55 days
•    Had prep run on flat last time (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)
•    Previously run in no more than 15 hurdles (winning 2 to 4)
•    Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
•    Ran at last year's Galway Festival

The Betfair Summer Double First Leg International is a 7F class 2 handicap which takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 23rd July, on the supporting card of the King George. Trends point towards 4 or 5yo who are still improving and ran well at Royal Ascot.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (http://tinyurl.com/3nuq76q):

Age
3yo: 1-5-33
4yo: 7-9-92
5yo: 2-9-55
6yo+: 0-7-57
9 of 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have a poor record, failing to win this race in past 10 years despite accounting for over 24% of the total runners.

Weight
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-5-10
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 3-8-47
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 2-8-73
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 4-9-107
Top Weight: 430032008103 (1-5-12)
Half the horses allotted to carry top weight have made the places.
Horses carrying a penalty: 0941009040050095410204 (2-5-22)
Horses carrying a penalty priced 12/1 or shorter: 4104050954124 (2-5-13)
7 of the 13 penalised runners that were sent off 12/1 or shorter made the places (with a further two finishing 5th)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 4-14-79
Horses rated 93 to 99: 5-12-89
Horses rated 92 or lower: 1-4-71
9 of 10 winners have been officially rated 93 or higher
In past 3 years 11 of 12 places filled by horses rated 96+.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed last time
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (both exceptions did so on second or third last start)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 race last time (exception won a class 3)
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions placed in a race worth 40K+ that season)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times on turf that year
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F (1 exception was beaten a short head in Bunbury Cup on previous start & other gained only win in 6F group 3)
8 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or higher (both exceptions had won a class 3 and finished 2nd in a class 2 Ascot handicap)
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K+
10 of 10 winners contested a class 2 h’cap worth over 30K that season

Big Field Form
6 of 10 winners had won a race with 16+ runners
The 4 exceptions had all finished in first 5 in 28 or 29 runner handicap at Royal Ascot. Clearly this is a race where you want a horse that has proven it can run well in a competitive big-field handicap.

Other Races
Last season's winner (Castles In The Air): 306008 (0-1-6)
Bunbury Cup winner (Brae Hill): 19004 (1-1-5)
Buckingham Palace Stakes winner (Manassas): 78237 (0-2-5)
Bet365 Handicap winner (Kingscroft): 000 (0-0-3)
Victoria Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 0000 (0-0-4)
Newcastle Totesport Handicap winner (Imperial Djay): 0060 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners (last 4) ran in Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 0520
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 410
3 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 9U0
3 of 10 winners ran in the Bunbury Cup last time, finishing 120
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Challenge Cup, finishing 08
9 of 10 winners contested a handicap at that season's Royal Ascot (4 Buckingham Palace, 3 Royal Hunt Cup, 1 Brittania, 1 Wokingham)

Trainers
Mark Johnston (1-1-13), Richard Fahey (1-0-1, who won the race last year) and George Margarson (1-0-5) are the only 3 trainers with entries to have won the race since 2001.
Kevin Ryan (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 representatives make the places.
David Simcock (0-1-3) saddled the 2nd and 5th in 2010.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at Newbury)
Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-6-90
Horses drawn in middle: 2-1-33
Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 4-20-90
There is a slight preference towards horses drawn high but nothing too significant.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off between 7/1 and 14/1
Favourites (0-3-13) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings and only 3 of the 13 (joint) favourites have made the places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5 (especially 4yos)
•    Carrying a penalty
•    Officially rated 93 or higher
•    Had 3 to 5 turf starts in 2011
•    Ran in past 40 days
•    Posted highest RPR last time out
•    Won a race this season
•    Won over 7F
•    Won at class 2 level or higher
•    Won or placed in a handicap with 16+ runners
•    Ran in a handicap at Royal Ascot (ideally Buckingham Palace)
•    Ran in Victoria and/or Bunbury Cup this season
•    Priced between 7/1 and 14/1

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, run at Ascot on the 23rd July, is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, it was historically a good acid test for Derby winners however this year’s Derby winner, Pour Moi, is not entered to run. It still looks a high class renewal and should be a truly memorable event.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years, http://tinyurl.com/6bwtlw6:

Age
3yo: 2-2-14
4yo: 8-6-41
5yo: 0-7-25
6yo+: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby earlier that season.

Gender
All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions won the Hardwicke by over 3 lengths on previous start)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
That season
Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (Rewilding): 25711 (2-1-5)
Highest placed Derby finisher: 1355 (1-1-4)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 81 (1-0-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding): 2203 (0-2-4)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 76953 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Arc winner (Workforce): 31 (1-1-2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 27 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 5-1-17
British-trained runners: 4-14-62
French-trained runners: 1-2-8
Other: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-12) and Michael Stoute (3-4-14) have both trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years, and the last 4 winners were trained by one or the other.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-4-14) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 5 of his 14 runners make the frame.

Price
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.48 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4
•    2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
•    Run in last 50 days
•    Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke last time out)
•    Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at trip)
•    Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
•    Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time
•    Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2010
•    Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
•    Priced shorter than 7/1

The Darley Irish Oaks takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 17th July. The last 2 renewals have gone to British-trained runners and there looks to be a strong raiding party coming over again this year, headed by the Epsom Oaks winner, Dancing Rain.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years http://tinyurl.com/6eqyanp:

Age
Race for 3yos

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners finished in the first two last time out (7 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (1 exception was 2nd in Epsom Oaks)
9 of 10 winners ran in the last 45 days
6 of 10 winners (last 5) finished in first 2 in a group 1 (4 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)

Other Races
Epsom Oaks winner (Dancing Rain): 1121 (4-1-5)
Record of horses placed in the Oaks: 0244033151349 (2-3-13)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Wonder Of Wonders): 2 (0-1-1)
Noblesse Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86424 (0-1-5)
Ribblesdale Stakes winner (Banimpre): 86240 (0-1-5)
Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes winner (Banimpre): P4 (0-0-2)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpre): 347606 (0-0-6)
6 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 112211
3 of 10 (3 of last 5) ran in the Musidora, finishing 241
2 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly last time, finishing 41

Trainers
Irish trained runners: 5-8-79 (non-O’Brien Irish runners: 2-1-48)
British trained runners: 4-9-31
French-trained runners: 1-1-2
Aidan O’Brien (3-7-31) has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of this race and the record of his first string in the past 10 years reads 3-3-10.
Jim Bolger (1-0-8) is the only other trainer with an entry to have won this in the last 10 years.
Mahmood Al Zarooni’s (0-1-1) only runner in this finished runner-up last year.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 3 in the betting & priced 5/1 or below.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.90 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Finished 1st or 2nd last time, in past 45 days
•    Won over at least 1M 2F
•    Finished in first 2 in Epsom Oaks
•    Finished in first 4 in the Musidora
•    Won or placed in a group 1 (or having first run in G1)
•    Trained by in France or GB or by Aidan O’Brien
•    From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 5/1)

Trends selection: Dancing Rain

The Weatherbys Super Sprint was first run in 1991, and it is presently restricted to 2yos which were sold or bought in as yearlings by public auction at "specified sales", or as 2yo up to and including March 1st, 2011, for £47,500 or less before July 1st, 2010, or for £50,500 or less after June 30th, 2010. The weights carried are determined by the sale price of the horses, with one pound deducted for every £3,000 the sales price is below £50,500. The minimum weight is 7st 12lb. Richard Hannon has trained 7 of the 19 winners of this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age
Race for 2yos

Gender
Colts: 4-12-122
Fillies: 6-9-110
Fillies have a slightly better record, having won 6 of the last 10 from slightly less than half the runners.

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 6.4 to 8.6
9 of 10 winners were by a group winner (exception was sired by Chevalier who ran only 3 times and was 2nd in a group 1)
8 of 10 winners (last 8) were by a sire that won or placed in listed/group race as a 2yo (2 exceptions were by sires that were unraced as 2yos)
10 of 10 winners were born before the 18th April

Weight
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 1-1-19
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-6-66
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 6-9-112
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-5-35
No strong trend on weights, though all 10 winners carried at least 8-1 or more, with only one horse managing to carry 9-0+ to victory.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their racecourse debut
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners had their last run in past 35 days
9 of 10 winners had previously won a race over 5F
0 of 10 winners had won over further than 5F
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (4 of 5 exceptions had not run in a listed/group race yet)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 over 5F at Windsor or Newmarket

Other races
National Stakes winner (Pyman's Theory): 11 (2-0-2)
HSBC maiden winner (Signifier): 1 (1-0-1)
Empress Stakes winner (Lily's Angel): 7 (0-0-1)
Lily Agnes winner (Lily's Angel): 6 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mary, finishing 568
2 of 10 winners ran in the Norfolk Stakes, finishing 15
2 of 10 winners won the National Stakes at Sandown
6 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (3 Queen Mary, 2 Norfolk, 1 Windsor Castle)

Trainers
Richard Hannon (4-4-45) has trained 7 of the 19 winners of this race since it began. He has saddled 4 of the last 8 winners and had a finisher in the first three in 8 of the last 10 renewals.
Ed McMahon (1-1-2) has saddled 2 runners, 2nd in 2005 and the winner in 2010.
Tim Easterby (1-2-11) has gained a win and 2 places from his last 11 runners while Brian Meehan (1-0-8) has also saddled the winner once since 2000.
Kevin Ryan (0-3-15) and Bryan Smart (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 runnings.

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 6: 4-4-60
Horses drawn 7 to 12: 2-5-60
Horses drawn 13 to 18: 3-6-60
Horses drawn 19 or higher: 1-6-52
No massive draw bias in the past 10 runnings, though 4 of the last 7 winners came from stall 1 or 2.

Price
7 of 10 winners went off at 9/1 or lower.
Not a strong trends race on prices with the winners’ price in past 5 years ranging from 2/1 to 20/1 to 100/1.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 4.00 since 2000.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Sired by a group winner with a stamina index of 6.4 to 8.6
•    Born before 18/04/2009
•    Carrying 8-1 to 9-0
•    Had 1 to 5 career starts & ran in past 35 days
•    Finished in the first 3 on debut
•    Won a race over 5F (but no further)
•    Won a group or listed race (or yet to run above class 2)
•    Finished in first 2 in a 5F race at Windsor or Newmarket
•    Ran at Royal Ascot
•    Won National Stakes
•    Trained by Richard Hannon or Ed McMahon