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Marerfield by-election Market

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Replies: 534

By:

yak hunt When: 26 May 26 15:05

Restore appear to have picked a very strong candidate, whilst Reform have picked a real howler, who has a history of truly vile social media abuse towards women. The tories also have a decent candidate but don't really count as possible winners. The right vote is horribly split whereas Labour are almost getting a free run. A disgraced replaced Green candidate, LibDems don't count, no George Galloway or similar. Labour are rightly clear favourites here.

By:

yak hunt When: 26 May 26 15:16

NEW: Reform UK's Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon said in 2019 that he did not vote for Brexit

"Anyone who thinks I love Trump, voted Brexit... is wrong... I woke up the day after Brexit **** myself to what was voted for"

By:

yak hunt When: 26 May 26 15:16

Shyting.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 26 May 26 15:28

He's not very complimentary to women either

By:

yak hunt When: 26 May 26 17:24

May 26, 2026 -- 12:57PM, Stevo wrote:

latest poll showing a close fight between Labour and Reform1. seems illogical to me, because this should be an easy win for Reform based on demography, Brexit vote share etc. Surely the simple fact that it is Burnham isn't going to change that in the vast majority of cases. Labour are Toxic, full stop.2. the betting is following the same pattern as for Trump v Clinton and the Brexit vote - ie, a complete red herring

Reform price out to 4.0 and more now.

By:

Escapee When: 26 May 26 17:31

UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election

6 Runners £743,580 Matched

			101%	98.4%
Labour	1.37	1.38	1.39	1.41	1.42	1.43	£369,617
	£400	£700	£9	£10	£61	£266
Reform	3.9	3.95	4	4.2	4.3	4.5	£149,872
	£11	£350	£48	£229	£222	£26
Restore Britain	25	26	27	28	29	30	£220,682
	£355	£89	£20	£69	£305	£68
Green	550	800	810	1000	-	-	£2,856
	£24	£10	£5	£23
Conservative	690	810	1000	-	-	-	£318
	£1	£1	£421
Liberal Democrats	810	960	1000	-	-	-	£235
	£1	£10	£457

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 26 May 26 19:20

I read on twitter....

So pinch of salt, but seemed a decent sauce

Refuk polling is down on that poll and they have restore
higher than poll.

By:

lapsy pa When: 26 May 26 19:58

A lot of scrutiny as it is just a single election rather than the multitude of the local elections, no hiding place.Just if he gets through on those tweets it would be a poor reflection on the electorate.

By:

barstool When: 26 May 26 20:06

Cos he is good with sinks.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 26 May 26 21:29

I'm not sure why greens are coming back in, lol

They've said they intend to run a very limited campaign.

Struggling to beat binface.

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 13:48

Apparently Blair has had a big piece published today by the non labour supporting The Times.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 27 May 26 14:04

A post found by the Telegraph from Robert Kenyon, Reform’s Makerfield candidate, saying Russia was “ within its rights” to invade Ukraine

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 27 May 26 14:05

Cider not read bliar rant, nor various take downs.

By:

the old nanny ;-) When: 27 May 26 15:04

Restore may well install Burnham as PM , If labour do win the votes lost by Reform to Restore will be interesting

By:

diabolicalliability When: 27 May 26 15:13

Good chance of GE

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 27 May 26 15:14

Refuk candidate is a joke, him and frog face apoear
to be in hiding.

By:

PorcupineorPineapple When: 27 May 26 15:30

Any time Farage appears he just gets asked about who he's working for so he's keeping Johnson company in his fridge for the last fortnight or so.

By:

yak hunt When: 27 May 26 16:40

Reform still drifting, 4.5 now. Is there a price that is worth taking on them? Their chances seem to be floundering daily.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 27 May 26 16:44

I'd think they become backable on evidence they
have a chance. I had Burnham at 1/6 so would have been
likely 6/1, but they've mucked it up a bit.

Still 2nd favs, but, 10/1 value, today?

Dunno,...

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 16:50

yak hunt • May 21, 2026 3:06 PM BST
Had a lovely holiday in Cyprus and have come back to an absolute cracker of a by election market. First thoughts are in complete agreement with previous posters, a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Restore could easily stop any Reform chances but can't see any value at all in the current market, certainly can't have Labour at around 1.58.

By:

yak hunt When: 27 May 26 16:56

If they go to 6.0 plus, I think I will have to have something on them.

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 16:57

^ Goal posts move, only in last week or so questions rightly being asked about a certain £15 million and fairly devasting tweets(might be ignored/not known by some )in the last couple of days,they were bound to drift in the light of those.

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 16:57

I think if people are voting for restore, they are predominately either voting for them or not voting at all. restore is very much a twatter thing.

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 16:59

No idea what you are talking about lapsy, what are fairly devastating tweets? (or a certain £15 million)

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:01

Not much shifts as quickly at the positions of politics punter.

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 17:03

I'll tell you exactly what i'm talking about Cider, you threw a snide one in at 4.50pm re Yak Hunt.

Not deserved as the parameters changed in his 21st of May post to today,says a good deal about yourself to bring it back up.

By:

Escapee When: 27 May 26 17:04

@Cider, Who do you think will win?

Who do you think is value?

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:05

What parameters have changed? obviously you're not going to go for over a month of a run up to a by election with nothing changed. reform getting smeared = no offers at 1.01. I have no idea what you are specifically on about though.

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 17:09

Do you not think more questions have been asked of Farages £15 million OR Kenyons tweets since the 21st of May?(noted you left the date out Yak Hunts post,why?)

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:10

I don't have a position on the outcome currently. I am red on Burnham to be next pm, so arguably I have a proxy position on it.

If the market is taking reform out as it thinks restore will be pulling votes away, I think that is wrong. It's a different demographic broadly, though maybe a few votes impacted. But obviously there are multiple variables in this one.

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:11

I still don't know what you are talking about. I don't use twatter, fyi

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 17:14

The reason for the price change between the 21st-27th. Why did you quote Yak Hunt?

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:15

What is the reason for the price change iyo? It's like pulling teeth lol

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:17

If you're talking about Farage's gift when he wasn't a MP, that was public before he won the local elections easily. True, they are wringing the story for all it's worth, but politics punter knew about that already, I assume.

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 17:18

They are the two reasons imo in the last week.

Why did you quote Yak Hunt?

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:19

Because he's trying to pretend he didn't make the post last week.

Normal people would explain why they have changed their mind, politics punter acts as if it was someone else using his log in

By:

yak hunt When: 27 May 26 17:24

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258666142

New market on here, betting without Labour.

By:

lapsy pa When: 27 May 26 17:25

In your head maybe? Looks to me he is just talking about the election and asking is that the end of the drift?

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:26

you don't have to agree with me. are you his bf or summat?

By:

Cider When: 27 May 26 17:30

Trying to pretend that the two posts are congruent doesn't do you any favours. If you think 1.58 is too short, then the opposite side must be too big. Now he's saying the opposite's sides are floundering daily. Clearly 1.58 wasn't too short was it, but let's pretend I never wrote that.