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Marerfield by-election Market
Escapee
Escapee
17 May 26 14:11
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Date Joined: 27 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 10,546 | Blogger: Escapee's blog
Restore are pumping money into this, costing them about £1-2,000 a day.

You can back Labour & Reform for a guaranteed 3.5% profit... Free Money


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £201,455 Matched   



              100.9%   99.3%             
Labour    1.62 1.63 1.64   1.66   1.67   1.68   £123,284
        £117 £123 £124     £845 £20 £100  
Reform    2.74 2.76 2.78   2.82   2.84   2.88   £56,046
        £88 £198 £84     £47 £61 £22  
Restore Britain    26 28 29   30   32   34   £21,280
        £268 £665 £23     £17 £154 £200  
Green    270 300 320   440   450   470   £708
        £5 £3 £4     £2 £1 £10  
Conservative    680 810 1000   -   -   -   £68
        £1 £1 £57              
Liberal Democrats    800 810 1000   -   -   -   £70
        £1 £1 £57              
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Replies: 534
By:
Escapee When: 17 May 26 14:12
I wish betfair would put up a Voter turn out percent market for Makerfield
By:
DancingBraveTheBest When: 19 May 26 16:32
Robert Kenyon representing Reform UK......seems a very decent person.....hope he winsHappy
By:
PorcupineorPineapple When: 19 May 26 16:40
hope this one's been vetted properly
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 19 May 26 20:28
Reform UK has selected Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and former British Army as its candidate for the Makerfield by-election.
By:
Grenade1972 When: 19 May 26 20:36
how the hell can "restore britain" be 12/1???
By:
FOYLESWAR When: 19 May 26 20:42
lay em then ,must be free money^^^
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 19 May 26 20:45
Reforms Rob , Worked for 6 years in NHS.

Wouldnt bet restore at 120

I hope Burnham wins Get starmer out at least we might get 2 years of non chaos . What happens if he doesnt is the Question
By:
Escapee When: 19 May 26 20:50
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £392,568 Matched   



              101.5%   99.4%             
Labour    1.6 1.61 1.62   1.64   1.65   1.66   £205,981
        £501 £550 £436     £350 £88 £23  
Reform    3.05 3.15 3.2   3.25   3.3   3.35   £93,780
        £145 £147 £192     £238 £16 £16  
Restore Britain    11.5 12 12.5   13.5   14   14.5   £91,062
        £249 £418 £34     £11 £112 £40  
Green    250 270 300   500   630   650   £1,348
        £2 £2 £2     £4 £5 £7  
Conservative    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £207
        £1 £1 £96              
Liberal Democrats    810 850 1000   -   -   -   £191
        £1 £1 £103              
By:
Escapee When: 19 May 26 20:55
7.55% free money available

Selection 1× Odds  1.62 Stake £66.39 Return £107.55 Profit/Loss £7.55
Selection 2× Odds 3.2 Stake £33.61 Return £107.55 Profit/Loss £7.55
By:
everyone's a winner When: 19 May 26 21:05
might as well lay Restore at 13.5 for £100 and win £8 - 8% free money
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 19 May 26 21:49
I wouldn't back them at 1200 if betfair changed the system

I wouldn't back them at 12,000 if they changed it again
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 20 May 26 19:21
£143K traded on Restore Rebecca on Polymarket (compared to £51k on Burnham and £27k on Reform).  Come on Rupert & pals.  I'd like some spending money for my holiday
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 20 May 26 19:23
Hills only 4/1 Restore.  No wonder they are on sale for only 10% of their value four years ago
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 20 May 26 19:28
It's a win win.  I get some extra spending money for my holiday and Rupert gets some free publicity to set the wheels in motion
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 21 May 26 14:13
25
£119,074.06

19 today, Nearly a quarter of the Trades on Restore ,strange market
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 21 May 26 14:18
There's no possible gain from this meerkat for mad manipulator

Seems to have given up.

I thought refuk would have tried harder to make it look like
green had a shot, but that soon fizzled out.
By:
yak hunt When: 21 May 26 15:06
Had a lovely holiday in Cyprus and have come back to an absolute cracker of a by election market. First thoughts are in complete agreement with previous posters, a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Restore could easily stop any Reform chances but can't see any value at all in the current market, certainly can't have Labour at around 1.58.
By:
Cider When: 21 May 26 15:08
I really feel like your analysis deserves to go behind a subscription wall.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 21 May 26 15:17
Hope you were able to start funding your next holiday
on this market.
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 21 May 26 16:36
I think the money will return personally.  It's in their interests for it to drift as then they can back it at bigger prices and layers will have higher liabilities and be unable (because of Affordability Checks) or unwilling to keep taking them on.  I think they'll do better than perhaps most people think and can finish third.
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 21 May 26 16:39
Rupert's been down the pub today having a jolly and rousing the ground forces.  All work and no play makes Rupert a dull boy
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 21 May 26 16:49
They must have some big liabilities holding up general election markets
all over the place, it's just a month to wait here
so easy to take them on. Not so easy to build up liability
against them on 2-3 year markets.
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 21 May 26 17:03
Brian Rose did it, as did Angela Leadsom.  Suspect there's more money and some chance of (relative) success (there was none with the afore mentioned) behind this lot.  What we don't know is how Affordability Checks might play a factor in this (on both sides).  If they finish third they'll claim a massive success for a new party.  That I would think is their aim, and if throwing a few hundred k into the mixer helps on the betting front to get them to that point, then it might be money well spent.  There's a lot of money in rich private hands and nowt to spend it on.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 21 May 26 17:15
Oh absolutely the publicity is worth the cost... At the moment

But there will come a point were they will not
get value for money as folk will just laugh and lay it.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 21 May 26 17:16
Green candidate withdraws, family reasons, and greens
looking for new candidate.


A Green Party Spokesperson said “We wish Chris [Kennedy] the best and understand that family has to come first. As a party, we are re-opening nominations now because we believe people in Makerfield deserve a real choice at this by-election, and the Green Party will be standing to offer exactly that"
By:
Escapee When: 21 May 26 17:35

if throwing a few hundred k into the mixer helps on the betting front


I don't think it cost anywhere near that £amount so far in this by-election market.

My guess is less then £10k, maybe less than £5k

A) They are matching both back and lays so that cancels liability and costs
B) The ball park figure for average weighted volume is 20/1 so a £10k cost to a backer gives a £200k
liability to the layers.
£200k liability is easily enough to soak up all the small fry layers in this market.

So unless they are opposed by a big player, they can get the market to this position for £10k or Less IMHO.

By:
yak hunt When: 21 May 26 17:40

May 21, 2026 -- 3:17PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Hope you were able to start funding your next holidayon this market.


Not had a single bet on it so far.

By:
paulo47 When: 21 May 26 17:43
Had to google , but very much part of my adolescent playground -particularly club rugby union as a player and rugby league as a watcher , not to mention Wigan snooker hall . Defo in the past you wouldnt look past labour .
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 21 May 26 18:43
I thought refuk would have tried harder to make it look like

green had a shot,

Why would reform be punting into A market on BF to influence anybody

the only Politician I ever heard Mention BF was Alex Salmond RIP
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 21 May 26 19:20
The Green chap has pulled out

Chris Kennedy, a registered nurse and children's safeguarding specialist, has pulled out of the process due to "personal and family reasons", the party has confirmed.
By:
the old nanny ;-) When: 21 May 26 20:28
Rumours Mr Kennedy was Withdrawn by the Party , Strange carry on , Nominated and removed within hours Plain
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 21 May 26 22:44
Escapee It's not money just here of which £63k has been staked.  I doubt much of that is ping pong money myself.  It's also Polymarket and trad bookies
By:
CLYDEBANK29 When: 21 May 26 22:49
Musk can always sort out PM if he so desires.  Like popping down the pub and buying a round of drinks for him.
By:
Escapee When: 22 May 26 12:21
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £507,428 Matched   



              101.1%   99.3%             
Labour    1.49 1.5 1.51   1.52   1.53   1.54   £261,563
        £3 £54 £735     £554 £364 £200  
Reform    3.4 3.45 3.5   3.6   3.65   3.7   £111,857
        £135 £148 £112     £12 £21 £5  
Restore Britain    16 16.5 17   18   18.5   19.5   £132,012
        £312 £55 £16     £67 £38 £4  
Green    440 450 500   700   720   930   £1,548
        £1 £5 £21     £2 £3 £6  
Conservative    690 810 1000   -   -   -   £256
        £1 £1 £99              
Liberal Democrats    680 810 1000   -   -   -   £192
        £1 £1 £129              
By:
yak hunt When: 22 May 26 14:35
Reform price continuing to drift. There has to come a point where it's worth chancing them?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 22 May 26 15:35
It is *incredibly* shabby that the Green Party cited "family and personal reasons" for their Makerfield candidate dropping out, given it was actually in relation to sharing antisemitic posts.

Twitter

Shame on them.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple When: 22 May 26 15:36
Yeah. Awful from them. Need to be much much better.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 22 May 26 15:37
Are THEY pushing out reform to plug restore?

If we knew, we could take advantage.

We need a head to head, to confirm matters...
By:
GLASGOWCALLING When: 22 May 26 22:13
Reform said earlier that they ar going all out, throwing the kitchen sink at winning this by election, I wonder why they stuck with this fella when they could have put someone more high profile. ??
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