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Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)
Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)
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Replies: 228
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Are you feeling alright?
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The difference in MTG pricing and Crockett pricing was because it had been reported that MTG was telling people she was going to run, Crockett only had reporting that she might run and the confidence behind it was weak. Any noteworthy candidate that runs usually goes under 100
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Just noticed the 'Will Trump run market'. I cant see there being much action, tying money up for nearly 3 years for less return than a savings account, unlike the outright markets you cant lay multiple runners to make it worth it.
A bit misleading too, he doesn't just have to run, he has to win the nomination and get the laws overturned so he is eligible. That's different to just running, no one disputes that Victoria Woodhull & Cenk Uygur ran for president but neither were eligible to serve. |
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The 22nd amendment wording is "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice". It doesn't say they can't run, or hold the office.
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How can I learn mind reading skills like you Escapee?
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The market thinks this Venezuelan thing is good for MAGA seemingly.
But how do we have Rubio coming in to 3rd favourite (from 32 -18.5) but Hegseth, whose idea it probably was, is not even listed. |
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What price would Hegseth trade at, considering he is one of the 4 or 5 most prominent cabinet members, and clearly very ambitious?
Surely well under 100, maybe close to Rubio price. |
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Got to have connections and history or
super recognition to trade low so early. If you fancy a punt then get him added and bet what you fancy for a rainy day. |
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He would easily trade below 100, he has more recognition than half the people that are below 100.
The average punter could not pick Pritzker or Shapiro out of a lineup, but they are seeing Hegseth's kick ass antics all over the news for months. People who would be Top 20 in the betting not being in the market at all is purely down to Betfair's chronic lack of knowledge of US politics. We have had a guy from Africa put in the market who then had to be taken out. One of the 1st questions I asked on this thread was where is Rubio when there were 50 people listed, now he is 3rd fav. I tried getting people added to a Tottenham manager market years ago,  , never again. |
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He would easily trade below 100, he has more recognition than half the people that are below 100.
The average punter could not pick Pritzker or Shapiro out of a lineup, but they are seeing Hegseth's Rambo antics all over the news for months. People who would be Top 20 in the betting not being in the market at all is purely down to Betfair's chronic lack of knowledge of US politics. We have had a guy from Africa put in the market who then had to be taken out. One of the 1st questions I asked on this thread was where is Rubio when there were 50 people listed, now he is 3rd fav. I tried getting people added to a Tottenham manager market years ago, , never again. |
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I think he would be similar to Noem. If he is to be added I hope it's to the outright and not the tumbleweed RNom market, any backer would probably have to go very short to get anything matched on the latter.
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He'd be a lot shorter than Noem.
Noem killed a dog. Trump just did her a favour in giving her a job for some reason. |
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I don't see it, not right now. Noem gets a lot more mentions in the media and in polling as a potential runner, Hegseth gets some but not as much. It's not going to be easy to have a runner go in under 100 on the outright, the GOP are a lot shorter on the outright now than their winning party odds (2.26), so any runner under 100 pushes that even lower and invites lays across all the GOP runners.
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Just had a look on oddschecker, 66/1 at Betfred the only place offering odds. I don't think he is listed at any of the US exchanges either, so now could be a good time to get matched at big prices but it probably only takes a couple of punters to like a candidate to push them to under 100.
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Probably not wise to big him up so bigly
Unless you intend to lay him. |
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Ideally I lay and back everyone. With Hegseth id certainly be a backer at 100+ and then we'd see how low he went.
Noem is no comparison. Her lowest price matched is 240. She shot her pet dog dead and dumped it in a ditch, and boasted about it! That was the end of her political career, she has no supporters at all. But Trump gave her a zombie career with some photo ops that will end in 2028. Hesgeth for sure would be below 100 and it's just annoying that people that would be in the top 25 or so are not in the list when there are dozens of novelty candidates. I really don't think these threads move the odds tbh. A lot of times for the '24 thread everyone here was in unison about the stupid odds of particular candidates but whoever was backing kept on going. |
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It's not going to be easy to have a runner go in under 100 on the outright, the GOP are a lot shorter on the outright now than their winning party odds (2.26), so any runner under 100 pushes that even lower and invites lays across all the GOP runners.
There are several GOP at sub 100 that should be layed now, so there would be plenty of room for Hegseth to be below 100. I just layed Rubio @18.5. He has 2 or 3% more of the book than he should. His surge seems entirely due to the supposed popularity of the Venezuela operation, which Hegseth is just as much at the forefront of. It makes no sense when Rubio is 18.5 that Hegseth would be 240. Rubio should be shorter yes, as he has a more substantial resume, but IMO he should be about 36 and Hegseth 65 ish. The Trump kids and Tucker also have about 5% of the book which is more than double what they should have. |
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There's a report on the Rubio odds surge, some think he is going to effectively be the president of Venezuela.
.https://www.thedailybeast.com/polymarket-surges-trump-goons-2028-odds-after-invasion/ I'm not too fussed about getting runners added here anymore, the absence keeps the short candidates short. Some of the short candidates have their fans definitely , I've layed them for a lot but they're still short. My initial thoughts with Pete was to be a backer at 800, 700, 500, 400, and a layer at 250 down to wherever he ended up. But I respect your opinion so would probably hold off on the lays above 150 now. |
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I see Pete H is in!
This thread has some influence maybe |
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Rand Paul and Spencer Cox next please.
Pete trading lower than Noem |
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You were spot on on Pete's price Blank!
last price matched 400  |
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and I backed him just then 600+!
I feel that's rather generous considering he's likely to be pretty prominent for the next couple of years and Trump seems to be keen on him |
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Pete was trading at 150-200 a couple of hours ago, 820-1,000 now.
 He's got tattoos all over his arms, not a contender IMO, but that ain't to say the market won't move him sub 50 at some point. Not for me, but Good luck on him. |
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My only action on him is a back at 1000. He might come in after everyone has layed off their greens.
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Backing candidates at 900- 1000 that will trade below 100 is the best way to win on this. I managed to do that in 2016 with Ryan/Romney and would have got the same from Beshear/Moore in 2024 if they'd had the 'mini primary' that Obama wanted.
I certainly didn't expect Hegseth to go that high so am stuck with an average of 400 odd, with just a few £ above 900. There is very little money on either side now so his price could fluctuate a lot. |
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Just needs the mad right wing money to come for him
and you'll be squids in. Kelly suing him could push his profile and see price decrease. |
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How can Rubio be single figures wearing those shoes?
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Looking towards mid terms
Democrat Emily Gregory will flip deep-red Florida House district that includes Mar-a-Lago, CNN projects Wow... |