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Official 2028 United Stated Presidential Election Thread (+Senate&House Elections)

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By:

blank When: 06 May 25 17:24

I think I layed him at 1,000

Pretty sure he ruled it out years ago, with his allies looking at a successor even in 2024. He has filed for re-election to the senate in 2030 though

By:

blank When: 06 May 25 17:29

Kemp's ruled out a 2026 Senate run despite GOP trying to get him to run, IG he thinks the 2026 midterms will be dire or he is looking at 2028.

By:

tobermory When: 06 May 25 18:07

Interesting. Kemp would need MAGA to completely implode, though couldn't rule that out lol

He would be the number 1 non MAGA Republican I think.

By:

tobermory When: 03 Jul 25 00:05

They added Zohran Momdani, who can't run as he was not born in the USA??

I can't see them refunding stakes on that, so may as well add someone else who is constitutionally barred.

By:

blank When: 03 Jul 25 00:53

I noticed that. He went to 1000 on the first day he was included but has started coming in a little as he generates headlines, and the layers don't have 1000x the capital that the backers have.

I guess it was a mistake by the Betfair traders and they didn't check he was eligible. They're probably not that informed. I asked for Rand Paul after his Iowa speech last month but they haven't added, but they have added Zuckerberg and Mamdani Lol, they have added a lot of names I request but it seems a lottery.

Still think Trump would be under 100 but it's probably cooled off a bit now he ended the talk about it.

By:

blank When: 03 Jul 25 02:01

Look at 'any other' in winning party, down to 15.5-18, but no obvious candidate for Musk's party in main market, a few of the celeb independents listed are more likely to run as dem, Massie probably not the one but that's probably why he has been added.

By:

tobermory When: 03 Jul 25 19:48

I guess it was a mistake by the Betfair traders and they didn't check he was eligible. They're probably not that informed

yep, that's it!

I suspect it was a cynical layer who got him added. Would it be that much of a headache to just void Mamdani bets at this point?

If Mamdani is left in there then Elon should be added too.

By:

tobermory When: 03 Jul 25 19:49

I saw Steve Bannon the other day saying Trump will have a 3rd term. That doesn't make it credible of course but the chatter about it continues.

By:

Ronaldmcdonald When: 03 Jul 25 20:04

It's not impossible for the constitution to be changed to allow the great Mamdani to run. Cenk Uygur has run for president before despite being born in Turkey. He argued that the constitution should not discriminate against naturalized citizens, and treat them as second class citizens, and he vowed to take the issue to the Supreme Court if needed.

By:

yak hunt When: 03 Jul 25 20:13

Jul 3, 2025 -- 7:49PM, tobermory wrote:

I saw Steve Bannon the other day saying Trump will have a 3rd term. That doesn't make it credible of course but the chatter about it continues.

Felons love in.

By:

blank When: 03 Jul 25 23:56

Cenk was never added on here. I thought his argument was that he could run for office but he couldn't serve if he won. Victoria Woodhull the first woman to run for president in 1872 was also ineligible to serve. I suppose using this argument then Mamdani can win the election he just cant serve as president.

Betfair probably aren't going to void unless someone complains and the longer it goes the less likely, it would probably help if his price keeps coming in because then any backers realising he is ineligible will just lay off rather than complain about him being listed.

By:

yak hunt When: 28 Jul 25 07:43

Betfair have Republican and Democrat Nominee markets up.

By:

blank When: 28 Jul 25 15:56

Oh cool. It looks like they've copied the names from Wiki.

By:

blank When: 13 Aug 25 16:31

Ivanka now added to RNom market

By:

Pokermonster When: 21 Aug 25 00:14

I'd like to see Tulsi Gabbard on the ticket as VP.

By:

Ronaldmcdonald When: 21 Aug 25 06:52

If Biden can give Obama a third term I suppose Ivanka can do the same for Trump.

By:

blank When: 21 Aug 25 08:22

But so can Jr, Vance, Lara, Eric and many others. It's plausible Ivanka wins but 50/1 outright is way too short. I'm on Poly so got some 250/1 for RNom which is more realistic.

By:

JerryHatrick When: 21 Aug 25 12:19

It will be an absolute annihilation again for the R's
The democrats are so hated it beggars belief. On the wrong side of every 80/20 issue
Their base is weirdos, freaks, pedos and criminals

Just look at this!

https://x.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1958139289134395523

By:

Escapee When: 21 Aug 25 12:31

I think maga loons will be going for a continuity candidate, backing all the sex offenders in the list will probably give a profit.

By:

Ronaldmcdonald When: 21 Aug 25 12:35

It just goes to show it is possible to win elections, even with terrible policies, but only by cheating on a massive scale. If Trump manages to make election honest again they will have no chance. Democrats want everything that makes it easier to cheat, computerized vote counting, mass mail in votes, including illegals in the census for apportionment, and they really don't want anything that makes it harder to cheat like voter ID, or paper ballots, or same day voting.

By:

JerryHatrick When: 21 Aug 25 17:00

NY appeals court voids the
nearly $500 million civil fraud
penalty against Trump

More pathetic lawfare reversed . The amount of money wasted trying to get Trump & all to no avail.
No wonder the democrats have the lowest polling figures ever

By:

Ronaldmcdonald When: 21 Aug 25 17:47

It took them long enough.

By:

JerryHatrick When: 21 Aug 25 18:08

President Trump will go on patrol tonight in the nation’s capital with law enforcement and military personnel at his side!

By:

edy When: 22 Aug 25 05:25

Was it the best and most impressive patrol by a true Chad that you ever saw, Jerry?

By:

Escapee When: 05 Sep 25 19:29

How's it going tobermory & blank? any more trades/positions?

Completed my 2nd trade on this market today.
I was very slow off the mark on Newsom and his BIG BEAUTIFUL tweets campaign, ummed and arred at 12.5, forgot about it for a week, went in at 8, and out today at 7.6

There's definitely a few almost cert trades a year in this market but I'm not paying enough attention.

USA - Presidential Election 2028 -- Election Winner

80 Runners £444,947 Matched

				98.2%	91%
£3.25	JD Vance	3.65	3.7	3.75	3.8	3.85	3.9	£203,848
		£88	£259	£40	£17	£103	£228
£83.25	Gavin Newsom	7	7.2	7.4	7.6	7.8	8	£49,920
		£350	£336	£78	£19	£86	£10
£3.25	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	17.5	18	18.5	19	19.5	20	£21,912
		£57	£57	£87	£34	£16	£11
£3.25	Pete Buttigieg	24	25	26	27	28	29	£19,423
		£7	£15	£31	£2	£94	£8
£3.25	Josh Shapiro	30	32	34	36	38	40	£12,354
		£24	£9	£14	£5	£28	£36
£3.25	Marco Rubio	32	34	36	38	40	42	£7,278
		£10	£15	£5	£6	£10	£12
£3.25	Ron DeSantis	40	42	44	48	50	55	£9,521
		£13	£55	£14	£67	£7	£19
£3.25	Gretchen Whitmer	38	40	42	46	48	50	£8,616
		£47	£12	£6	£2	£70	£22
£3.25	Ivanka Trump	36	38	40	46	48	50	£8,036
		£7	£6	£3	£118	£29	£5
£3.74	Donald Trump Jr.	42	44	46	48	50	55	£9,716
		£3	£9	£16	£25	£206	£67
£3.25	Andy Beshear	38	40	42	44	46	48	£5,041
		£14	£12	£5	£2	£15	£14
£3.25	Nikki Haley	50	55	60	65	70	75	£6,111
		£12	£17	£7	£5	£27	£5
£3.25	Wes Moore	38	40	42	44	46	48	£6,284
		£1	£25	£5	£5	£41	£30
£3.25	J.B Pritzker	46	48	50	55	60	65	£4,050
		£5	£1	£7	£2	£23	£8
£3.25	Tulsi Gabbard	90	95	100	110	120	140	£8,016
		£15	£22	£7	£1	£17	£5
£3.25	Kamala Harris	70	85	90	100	110	120	£4,799
		£3	£2	£12	£10	£4	£3
£3.25	Dwayne Johnson	85	90	95	140	150	240	£1,437
		£4	£6	£2	£20	£20	£1
plus 63 more runners not listed above, at odds of over 100

By:

blank When: 06 Sep 25 08:26

I'm laying almost everyone, some more than others. 80 runners currently, 130 in the 2024 market, at this stage in the 2024 market there was no Kennedy (traded 11), Ramaswamy (traded 11), D.Phillips (40), plus many others like T.Scott, Burgum, Shapiro, Lake, Dimon maybe, Manchin maybe. I expect a big field on both sides in 2028 with a lot of names to come.

Greens on GOP side, Youngkin, Carlson, Cotton, Kemp, Cruz, Bannon, Noem, Scott.. adds up to about 30/1
Decent greens on Dem side, Buttigieg, Beshear, Moore, Pritzker, Gallego, Khanna, Crockett, Raimondo... 7/1

By:

blank When: 06 Sep 25 08:51

I don't think there's much chance of Newsom going back to double figures in the next 6 months, he really is the focus, and he may go shorter, but longer term, 30% for Dnom and 13.5% for GE winner might look short come 2027.

By:

tobermory When: 07 Nov 25 07:37

Has Zohran Mamdani been removed from this market or am I blind and just can't see him in the list?

I layed him, but no bets settled..

A farce that he was ever added.

By:

Escapee When: 07 Nov 25 11:10

I can't see him in the list tober.

AFAIK, He's not born in USA and can't apply for the job, so a great lay.

I think they only partially settle this market on deceased runners.

Have you checked your voided bets?
If you got matched on him, you should see it on your account somewhere
https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/bettinghistory

By:

blank When: 07 Nov 25 15:03

Yes they have removed him and void bets after he has been in the market since June. Crazy, someone like me that is laying nearly everyone is including him in the book %, and I am laying others based on being able to lay off against him, without him I might have offered a tick lower odds on other runners. I think he just started hitting sub 200 after his win.

Only a farce he was added because they wouldn't add Trump or Musk before. They should all be added like they're all listed on Polymarket, which now has $112M matched to Betfair's £500K.

By:

tobermory When: 07 Nov 25 23:17

My guess is someone who backed Mamdani @1000 was - in the aftermath of the NYC result - boasting about their big green on social media when someone pointed out Mamdani cannot win.

Then they called Betfair and got it voided.

By:

tobermory When: 07 Nov 25 23:20

Can't see why AOC came in again, because Mamdani won? The NYC electorate must be the worst proxy for the national race.

Though perhaps it was a sign that Dems are not going to see sense and the moderates will not be able to stop them going further left.

By:

Escapee When: 08 Nov 25 13:19

Can't see why AOC came in again

Total guess, It's because she is perceived as being one of the younger, 'angrier', pro active, new generation democrats.

The old guard are losing/have lost the respect of the younger internet generations , it's just a matter of time, the writing is on the wall for them.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 08 Nov 25 13:25

Lots of folk always forget there is big right wing money
manipulating these markets.

Nothing better for right wingers than forcing AOC to
head of dem candy dates.

By:

blank When: 08 Nov 25 19:07

^^ one of the reasons I wanted Crockett added and have kept her green. Trump and the GOP love bigging her up but she is also popular with the dem base.

I've not really looked in depth at the VA and NJ candidates but some huge wins for dems there, and they were getting Moore, Shapiro, Buttigieg, Obama etc. to visit so I assume they're a lot more moderate candidates.

I've been surprised to hear a lot of commentators say AOC is going to explode when more people know who she is, I had assumed she was already a household name but I guess not.

By:

tobermory When: 13 Nov 25 20:23

The only people who are going to like AOC are those already into woke politics. I'd be surprised the average voter doesn't know who she is.

Crockett is a comedy candidate, the screensaver on her phone is a picture of her own face. And the there is the accent switch. I layed at 200 something and greened up now on her.

But Marjorie Taylor Greene is in the same category and is 1/4 Crockett price??? My 2nd biggest red.

And if those 2 airheads are contenders why isn't Nancy Mace in the market too

By:

tobermory When: 13 Nov 25 20:26

The Crockett accent switch is really funny

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DolvP-DmZVI

By:

Escapee When: 14 Nov 25 00:33

The Crockett accent switch is really funny

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DolvP-DmZVI

"Code switching", when someone switches accent, slang, or demeanour according to
the various cultural environments they mix in.
i.e. typically working in a mainly white office and socialising in mainly non white setting.

People who do this seamlessly are often above average IQ, empathetic, with good social skills and quick learners.

From my experience of being involved in lots of job interviews, a good code switcher makes a great employee when you need someone to own the task and deliver it.

By:

Ronaldmcdonald When: 14 Nov 25 00:45

Above average IQ

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bvawZkoF5yg
/

By:

Escapee When: 14 Nov 25 01:08

You post like a paid actor... or you worship an Orange billionaire or both.

Either way, your opinion, your scoffing, your repetitive "same sht different toilet" posts are just
irrelevant pink noise.

As Bush said "Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again."

No one clicks you links, no one laughs at your jokes, you don't even have a sense of humour.
All you do is post exactly like a paid actor would post and that's boring dull boring.

You're irrelevant.

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