Jr tied with Vance.

2028 National Republican Primary

• Donald Trump Jr. — 30%
• JD Vance — 30%
• Ron DeSantis — 9%
• Nikki Haley — 6%
• Vivek Ramaswamy — 5%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 5%
• Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 1%
• Marco Rubio — 1%
• Tucker Carlson — 1%
• Greg Abbott — 1%
• Brian Kemp — 1%
• Glenn Youngkin — 1%
---
• Someone else — 5%

@MorningConsult
| 12/6-8 | n=994

I followed it non stop in 2024 and made £48K, would have been £60Kish if Kamala won, guess it works out about minimum wage over 4 years though, and I may have gotten lucky with a big green on Kamala before the Biden debate.

I'm already in deep here that I will have to follow it again or have money tied up for a long time, I've been laying almost everyone, with 70ish runners to be added about 90% of the current field is probably priced too low IMO, which is why I'm trying to get runners added when they're hot, DJT would be a good addition.

BeShear looks like he will run, not sure about Gallego but he has a good profile. Rahm Emanuel the first Dem that is reported to be exploring a run, not heard of him but former Obama chief of staff.

I'm not sure why the Reps have a significant edge in the winning party market, 1.75R/2.32D, 57%/43%. Dems actually slightly ahead on other sites and with 4 years to go and no incumbent it looks 50/50. It would probably work out to be backing the dems at odds on when 4 years of lost capital returns is taken into account though, so no value.

I followed it non stop in 2024 and made £48K, would have been £60Kish if Kamala won, guess it works out about minimum wage over 4 years though

That's fantastic though Blank! You can't really look it at as an hourly wage, as betting is fun and I'm sure you have other markets and other income.

I won 600 odd and I didn't really see how I could have scaled it up much by betting a lot bigger, as the best value i got would typically be £2 bets on candidates with low liquidity, when £2 was all that could be matched at the price.

To win big you have to take strong positions on the current odds of the main candidates where the money is, and be right most times. OR build huge greens on no hopers at 900+ that then become contenders. The latter could have worked out for me on Beshear & Moore but then Biden nixed the mini primary.

Yes you are right. I shouldn't be disappointed, my biggest market to date. When the market first started I was thinking of the £2BN+ 2020 market and hoping for the same matched, if 2024 had another billion and half matched I think I would have doubled or trebled my profit.

I tended to group some of the main candidates together the first few years, I knew some of their odds had to be wrong but I didn't know which. I think around 3 years out Trump and DeSantis were evens dutched and all the republicans were 1.5, the winning party market was about 1.75 I think, so I'd lay every republican and then a couple of months later back them back at 1.7+, (I could have also hedged in winning party market). Then repeated the cycle when it ebbed and flowed every few months.

I don't know what to take from the Trump JR polling. He isn't going to run against his pick Vance. There was an Emerson poll last month that had Trump Snr on 23%, similar to what Jr is getting so they're likely interchangeable.

I think the LA fires have done for Newsom?

He is getting blamed, really squirming when trying to defend himself. No one on the left bothered to defend him much.

He missed his chance I think. Should have just challenged Biden at start of primaries.

Elissa Slotkin to give the Dem response to Trump's State of the Union address

Trump Snr now listed at billy mountains, 5/1 second favourite, C'mon Betfair get him up!

He should be added now he has expressed interest. Betfair should be facilitating betting on candidates in which there is interest, not getting involved in moral/ political stances. He is listed on US regulated sites and now UK ones.

Depends on where the mad right wing money takes it.

I'd expect sub 20 to begin.

I'd probably be a backer at above 100 to start with. My guess would be 20-50. I think it is all bluff but he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

he might keep it going for a few years so he doesn't appear a lame duck.

yes he will want to continue to strike fear into the hearts of republican lawmakers

That must be it. They should have a magic button similar to cashout that lets people back 'any other' more easily, that way instead of people backing Trump at 5/1 on oddschecker they could back him at the same price on here, and get all the other candidates to be added included in their bet.

The $markets market

Donald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
No 1.12
Yes 7.4

...But Betfair should nonetheless really add Trump to the election market.

i still say it should be who will be potus on 21/01/2029

AOC is 2nd favourite 

I never wanted to get involved with this again but am over £500 red on her

Now wish I'd layed all the 1000s when they were 600-900

Betfair should put Trump in the market, he's declared his intention to run and he's got the power to suspend the constitution so he's got a greater than zero chance.

Last time I asked about Trump they said they're not going to add him because he is ineligible, sounded quite definitive, they probably should have stated that right away.

Still loads of names they could add which would automatically push up the prices on everyone currently listed. Raimondo, Bannon, Abbott, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Byron Donalds, Jared Polis, Cooper, Stefanik, Burgum, Jamie Dimon. Layers are at the mercy of Betfair adding names.

Can't believe I could lay Bernie Sanders at sub 200. He will be 87 years old in 2028.