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NEXT PRESIDENT MARKET
NEXT PRESIDENT MARKET
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That’s not to say that there wasn’t fraud and serious malpractice in this election
There was , it was fundamentally flawed in its very process |
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Total Bosman
Date Joined: 15 Dec 04 Add contact | Send message 15 Dec 20 13:37 Joined: 15 Dec 04 | Topic/replies: 8,617 | Blogger: Total Bosman's blog So many angry people on Twitter are arguing that the market was Next President and so it can’t be settled until the next president is in place. By their own literal interpretation Next President would mean the 46th President, and the only person that cannot be is the 45th President, Donald J Trump. brilliant |
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He could resign, (irony intended) leave office,
change mind and be sworn back in, claiming the title of potus46 just to wind up sleepy joe and create lots of work for usa printing trade. Meanwhile the MAGAs would get mega payouts on next president and Guiliani could unleash the kraken against betfairs crack usa law team... I suspect there's more chance of lfc becoming next POTUS, but it's been a funny year, innit |
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Republicans in all swing states plus Nevada and Arizona voted Trump in defiance of the stolen vote. Though their votes won't count, they nullified the electoral college vote today, and the election will now be decided without the electoral college.
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Wrong
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I realize you do need your safe space and hence try to escape to an alternative reality, but the elections are over. Biden won. Trump lost.
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The sooner you come to that realization, the less hurt you will feel come January 20th. The less mental gymnastics you will have to do to somehow explain why Biden became President of the United States through the electoral college after all.
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interesting philosophical question though, when was the election decided?
was it when all those votes were cast for Biden? was it when the votes were counted and the EC projection for Biden went above 270? Was it when the first or second recounts in Georgia saw Biden maintain his win? Was it when multiple Trump lawsuits, calling for Democrat votes in black cities to be flung out, were deemed baseless? Was it when Trump's attackdog Bill Barr said there was no evidence of widespread fraud? Was it yesterday when the EC voted Biden 306 to 232? Will it be in January when Pence reads out the result? (looking forward to that one) Will it be on Jan 20th when 46 is inaugurated? personally, I think it was decided when the vote from Milwaukee was returned  |
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It was probably decided about a month before the election.
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Katies input was sorely missed during the election and post election
But a fine replacement fot timmy and cider and the other nutters |
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when Trump caught Corona wasn't a good luck, for a man who spent all year saying it wasn't real. "Let them drink bleach" cannot have helped him win many moderates. Economy in the toilet not helpful.
Still got to be a real fk up not to win as incumbent. Most incumbents win. |
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Reminds me of the story from a Celtic-Rangers derby. Bertie Auld of Celtic had his leg broken. When they asked Bertie when he knew his leg was broken he replied "When I saw John Greig running towards me".
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I think it was when he beat Clinton by cheating
his fate was sealed Still a chance he gets chucked and killary takes over... |
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^^
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The rules certainly condtradict the tittle of the bet, "Next President". The bet should have been titled, "Electoral Collage vote winner". Possibly two different options.
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Same thing , so no problem
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Maybe you want to vote now on who will be next president ?
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* bet now
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Have a one that pays out on inauguration
A second one that pays out on ec votes ? |
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Yes that’s possible . Who wants to bet now on who will be inaugurated ?
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Ah yes, the electoral college winner could meet his maker pre inauguration I guess.
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It’s a process, isn’t it, which is why Betfair needed clear rules and to stick to them, because otherwise you could make an argument for various pos n the process being the key and market closing one. I’d say Biden isn’t actually president until he’s sworn in but the election has been over for ages and it would be silly to run a market on the basis of waiting for inauguration, so Betfair didn’t, although they also didn’t run it on the basis they specified, which was rather an odd call.
On the issue of the pandemic being bad luck for Trump, I think this was an occasion where politicians mostly made their own luck. Several have handled the pandemic at least well enough to have gained in popularity, which is by no means even necessarily the same as handling it particularly well. Trump, however, handled it spectacularly badly, both in terms of policy and presentation and while I thought he’d have lost anyway before the election, looking at it now, that probably did cost him victory. That’s the thing about being really terrible at politics though. |
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If you base it on electoral collage votes you have to be sure those votes are correct
That’s what betfair did , well done . |
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BF were in no way ready for a wildcard like Trump. Normally you'd have the concession once you cannot reach 270 EC votes and we'd have had a nice quick settlement. Made up fraud claims has complicated the market, but BF did ignore their rules. Instead of projected EC votes in the rules, perhaps it's time to make dec 14th the official time to settle.
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Electoral Collage vote winner
Is the electoral collage something that US school children do in Art class? |
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We will await with interest Betfairs 2024 Presidential market and the attached rules.
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The American voting system is a collage of all the individual states
And they have different colours and different rules |
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California Institute of the Arts nailed on...
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One point about the page displaying the market - it had below the participants several small paras of search engine key words and there would have been plenty of space for the market rules rather than having them in a separate pop-up.
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Would like to know what people with bets placed on trump would do if trump does keep his position. I think he will win in the end.I was set to win over £2000 and I had a pot of just under £2000 if he got between 240 and 269 votes plus others. I will want paying out.
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^^You agreed to betfair's terms and conditions, which means you agreed that the market rules were the basis of the bet.
The rules stated that the winner was the candidate with the most projected electoral college votes as a result of the election, so you won't get paid even if trump states a coup. |
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*stages a coup
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Cant see how Betfair can changed what you bet on. All they should have done was refund all money and say bets unsettled in time frame. As we stand Betfair have nominated biden as next president when it may not be the case.
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The market wasn't who would be inaugurated as President. It was who would receive the most projected Electoral College Votes. That was Biden, the Betfair rules were very clear on that point.
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Just out of interest what would happen if trump pulled out and biden dropped dead and Harris was next president. Or Trump won but dropped dead and pence was signed in ? It's not over until the horse crosses the line.
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