Politics
NEXT PRESIDENT MARKET
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Fats, did you actually bet against Biden?
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Lol, ok Fats
 Dave, do any EU laws come into any possible legal action? |
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They’ll be along with their wheelbarrows to take the money to its rightful destinations any moment now.
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^^Don't know, but as there isn't anything such as EU gambling law I would doubt it, and also if bets were deemed placed in the provider's jurisdiction, it would be odd that the big gaming companies hadn't used that as a way to fight local licensing. eg Ladbrokes could just have said FU from GIB when the Germans and Italians got shirty.
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sorry i am unaware of anything such as EU gambling law, but happy to be set right
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Gambling is not AFAIK an EU competence but I used to deal with a guy from Leeds who was into coin-op. He had web-based fruit machines that ran of a server in Sweden, anyways I forget the details but there was a dispute that ended up in ECJ because of its extraterritoriality, anyways according to him the court decided that the service was operating out of Sweden and therefore the casino game was played in Sweden even if the punter was in a pub in the UK.
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Anyways all the Trump supporters on here are no doubt Brexitists and they will have no choice but to tramp up the steps of the hated ECJ if they want to get their hard-won winnings. All the talk will be in foreign too since English is being banned from the ECJ to punish the UK for Brexiting, the divils ha?
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Some services are legal in some EU countries and illegal in others, bookmaking is one and paying for sex is another, however, I believe that if for example, bookmaking is legal in Ireland and UK then the EU insists under single market rules that UK peeps could bet with Irish layers and vice versa. An EU state like France can ban betting exchanges and the ECJ will have nothing to say on the matter because that is a domestic matter. To complicate matters Betfair does hold a UK licence.
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talking of offshore gambling
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/paddy-power-owner-flutter-entertainment-hit-with-kentucky-supreme-court-penalty-120042837.html . Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.L), the owner of Paddy Power and Betfair, has been hit by a huge $870m (£642m) judgement by Kentucky’s Supreme Court, sending its share price lower on Friday. The court reinstated an award of damages against The Stars Group (TSG), the US gambling firm that Flutter merged with in 2018, in relation to offshore poker sites that TSG operated. The original award of damages dates back to 2015. |
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THERE IS ONLY GOING TO BE ONE OUTCOME HERE, TRUMP CAN'T LOSE. THIS IS A DONE DEAL, IF YOU BACKED TRUMP, SIT BACK AND WATCH THE SHOW. BETFAIR MADE A COSTLY MISTAKE. JUST IGNORE THE CLOWNS. WE GET THE LAST LAUGH.
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Do I get paid twice?
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Trump won the election by a landslide & received the most votes ever for any President in history - that is fact. Do people really believe that Biden then received more votes??? There has been blatant fraud that's gone on especially with the **** dominion voting machines & the truth is now coming out. I fully expect Trump to be inaugurated as President again on the 20th January & Betfair will then have to pay out to those who were on the back Trump or lay Biden for the Next President market.
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That’s an excellent opportunity to back Trump to be president at least up to 2025 if you a) believe he won the election, b) believe that this will be enacted by a process that remains highly opaque, to allow him to be inaugurated instead of Biden, you know the guy with 306 electoral college votes and c) think Trump will last out until 2025 without being deposed by the, by this point no doubt deeply disgruntled, deep state. I guess if you were worried about c) you could still cash out for a vast profit. What’s to stop you?
I’m risking further huge losses (to go with all the money I lost on Biden winning, as discussed up thread) by backing Trump to leave office next year. Call me conventional but I like 4 or so % returns on 1000-1 on shots. |
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I'm waiting until Jan 1 to lump on...
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I am just surprised that 30s Trump is still available on that market, surely a huge price following his inauguration in January. You are effectively betting on if his health will hold out to 2025. 30.0? Very strong chance he can make it.
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It’s actually been a ticklish market to trade as I’ve not wanted to get hugely exposed on Trump leaving this year, which has always felt very unlikely but difficult to call precisely with someone so unstable. So I’ve had backs of 2021 and of 2020 plus some lays of 2025, which don’t offer quite such a good return as backing 2021, obviously. As with yhtl, I’ll probably lump on further in the new year. Not one I mind having about 80% of my bank on. It’s not going to tie it up for very long.
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Laying 2025 seems a winner, bar a USA military coup.
Do you think a military coup is 30/1 or so likely? Nope, so any spare money seems to have a nice place to go for a few weeks with a 3% return. |
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But if Trump has indeed won as d-man and Northender are claiming?
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I guess they will be backing that 30s price with glee.
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.138799270
pp thanks for the Bank of Betfair link. 4% for a short-term deposit extremely generous in these times  |
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Going to be a race at midnite new years eve,
Hope betfair work on uk time,.... I suppose I should check Lol, ibas would love that one... |
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Fifteen million so far through the laundry...
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You do wonder who is betting on the other side. It's not like it's a prominent market like "Next President". Laundering perhaps, not being a criminal I don't know if that's easily possible. I do know 3% would be a price worth paying if you could.
Still, I'm looking forward to all the books and documentaries post Trump. It'll be like watching re runs of Cheltenham, on the races I backed the winners. I think there'll be plenty of choice early next year, once the rats have left the sinking ship. |
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How are other banks only able to offer 0.5% pa yet BF can offer 4% and you collect your money on January 20? It's incredible
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Wishy washy?
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The market should have been settled November 5th or whatever date all the networks projected Biden as winner. Anyone who wanted to moan about it could have been referred to the rules. This is the third time in the last 4 years I have seen a political market where Betfair have introduced additional or alternative criteria for settlement that was not in their market rules. I don't even bet on politics much so maybe there are other examples.
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The Theresa May debacle has to be in there with the shoddiest.
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Yes, there were 2 Theresa May ones! The PM after 2017 election where they insisted a queen's speech had to be passed before she was PM (which was not mentioned in the rules) and the date she would resign the leadership, which Betfair decided was when she ceased to be PM (again nowhere in rules) as Betfair were unaware you could be PM without being part leader (despite multiple historical examples). They were fortunate May eventually stayed on as leader as well as PM.
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This one looks really bad though because of the amount of money they have made on it. The stuff in the rules about consitutional factors delaying the outcome was clearly only applicable if the network projection was something like Biden 265-230 Trump, with a few states up in the air.
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Absolutely. However, I think this years Next President market has eclipsed that in the shocking manner of it's administration.
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Not betfairs fault you don't understand the word resign.
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The Next President market bred multiple (often ludicrous) conspiracy theories and gave false hope to many, who possibly had considerable sums involved. Some still believe there will be an outcome opposite to the market settlement.
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The point was when she would cease to be leader. She said - about May 23rd - she would resign on June 9th and continue as PM until a successor could be found. Betfair decided this meant she would be Tory leader until she ceased to be PM. This ignored the possibility that the leadership would be vacant between June 9th and her ceasing to be PM. As it was she was caretaker leader until Boris took over, but it was not at all clear for a couple of weeks.
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Betfair were obviously correct
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