Politics
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26 Nov 20
11:26
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Date Joined:
20 Mar 18
Don't think there is any doubt that Sadiq Khan will win but there are some interesting betting markets worth a look.
Betfair- winner only. Khan 1.26. Brian Rose 7.8. Shaun Bailey 13.5. Others 200 and up.
Smarkets...
Khan to win on first preferences? Yes 2.98. No 1.31.
To finish 2nd- Shaun Bailey 1.26. Brian Rose 7.6
Brian Rose runs a you tube London site with apparently over 2 million subscribers and it's claimed is making rapid progress in this election. It seems strange to me that he is clearly favoured to finish ahead of Bailey in the Betfair market but is 7.6 to do so in the Smarkets market?
Betfair- winner only. Khan 1.26. Brian Rose 7.8. Shaun Bailey 13.5. Others 200 and up.
Smarkets...
Khan to win on first preferences? Yes 2.98. No 1.31.
To finish 2nd- Shaun Bailey 1.26. Brian Rose 7.6
Brian Rose runs a you tube London site with apparently over 2 million subscribers and it's claimed is making rapid progress in this election. It seems strange to me that he is clearly favoured to finish ahead of Bailey in the Betfair market but is 7.6 to do so in the Smarkets market?
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Replies: 175
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Interesting character, I wonder
if he posts on here? I guess you are betting on the vaccine working, removing his anti lockdown pitch. Big potential to be a protest vote if tory can't win. |
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Head to head betting doesn't always
follow outright chances. |
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Paddy Power now go..
Khan 1.2 Rose 5.0 Bailey 10.0 Seems to be a lot of money coming for Brian Rose. |
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Maybe they are putting him in doubles
with trump for 2020, |
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There is some mad stuff going on in that Presidential market.
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Nothing madder than a David icke
type being 4/1 to be mayor of London. Not saying if its right price or not, just the thought of it. |
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baileys already landed the 999 shot of been able to repeat the impossible and run a more dog whistle racist campaign than zac noldsmith
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Surely not?
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Hartlepool elected a football
mascot in a monkey suit called H'angus... So anything really is possible |
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and a bloke dressed as a chicken has been running the country for 12 months
must be something in it |
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A lot of money last couple of days for independent candidate Brian Rose. He was as low as 5.0 but is now 7.0. If folks think he has a chance of turning over Sadiq Khan (a big ask) they would be better backing Brian Rose to finish 2nd in Smarkets market- 2021 London Mayoral Election 2nd Place, where Brian Rose is priced at 7.8 and is a more realistic reflection if he is going to be competitive.
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Will we see the money bring
down the price to create impressiin he is competitive, as seemed to be case in usa election with trump? |
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Impression, lol I am not Priti patel
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Will need to wait and see more relevant opinion polls in the new year. The ones for the cancelled 2020 election are next to useless now. Brian Rose has potential but I can't see him winning it.
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Voting in London will reflect Voting across the UK in 20 years time ,Be nothing to do with Parties will be purely on Candidates standing .
As mayor many very unhappy with Khan . But he has a core 15 % vote regardless . |
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The euro elections show how soft the tory
vote can be if a protest exists. I guess Labour is solid(ish) for Khan. Not living in London I dont know how this is playing out. My nearest Xmas card to London is Waltham Abbey, so I have no feedback, other than here and twitter. |
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politicspunter,
I've little doubt that some of the prices you have highlighted will represent value and there may be a possibility to structure bets to all but guarantee a profit from those existing prices. Furthermore, I haven't yet looked into these markets, nor the rules, nor even the electoral procedures in any detail and I should probably do so before commenting... However, I would presume that it could be entirely reasonable for people to consider Rose to have a higher probability of winning than Bailey but a lower probability of finishing second (most probably behind Khan)? This could be the case, if, for example, Bailey was considered likely to obtain slightly more 1st preference votes than Rose but significantly less likely to pick-up 2nd preference votes from eliminated candidates than Rose in a run-off against Khan. A somewhat simplistic artificial example, for simple souls like myself, to consider, might be the winner of a contest amongst 3 dice (A,B and C). Presume all of the six faces of die A were marked with a 5; all of the six faces of die B were marked with a 2; and die C had five faces marked with a 1 and one face marked with a 6. Presume a fair contest (throw and roll), other than the unusual markings. Die A would have a 5/6 probability of winning. Die C would have a 1/6 probability of winning. Die B would have a 0/6 probability of winning. However, Die B would have a 5/6 probability of finishing second (Die A 1/6, Die C 0%). |
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to prove how people can be hoodwinked who only get snippets of politics at election times
about a month ago my mate reading bits in the gaily mail was telling me how sean bailey was going to smash khan in london mayor election, i asked him how much he wanted in a dtraight bet,before explaining khan was a shoe in, must of done a bit of homework because last week told me what a foooking idiot that bailey is  |
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As Donny mentioned earlier, the London tory vote can be soft. I can't see any way that Bailey can win and probably most tory voters feel the same. Also, there is no way I can see all "other" candidate supporters switching to Bailey in order to turn Khan over. However, I could see everyone uniting behind an independent candidate if they thought he had a chance of beating Khan. Now, Rory Stewart could have filled that role before he withdrew from the race earlier this year. I can't rule out Brian Rose replacing him as the independent anti Khan candidate.
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Well, 4.9 is now being matched on Brian Rose on the exchange. This seems a short price to me but it hasn't stopped the flow of money supporting him.
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This is becoming wierder by the minute. Rumour control says that the tories are considering chucking Shaun Bailey and throwing their lot in with Brian Rose instead.
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Tories giving up London, lol
That doesn't play out well long term |
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East london will be on top
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bailey making a fool of himself again ,faking city halls coat of arms on mail he,s sent out to homes warning of council tax rises
he really is such a fooooking clown,time someone give him a slap |
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I can see him being removed by the Conservative Party.
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Mayor of London candidate Brian Rose fined for lockdown breach
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55796176 |
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London mayoral voting intention:
Khan (LAB): 51% (+2) Bailey (CON): 25% (-3) Porritt (LDEM): 8% (-2) Berry (GRN): 6% (-3) Reid (WEP): 4% (+4) Gammons (UKIP): 2% (-) via @RedfieldWilton , 06 - 08 Mar Chgs. w/ 14 Jan |
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Gamble gone astray?
Can we now expect sustained manipulation of Bailey price? Or better still gammons 4 London! |
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It's a wild betting market, over £2m matched already.
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400k on rose! Including 6 quid at 1.01
Not even in poll? |
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There has been some truly crazy stuff going on. I think I have done ok out of it but I am maxed out now.
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https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place
. Free money. Back Bailey, lay Rose. Two months to wait for guaranteed payout. |
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Bailey must be the worst candidate for London mayor that Tories have ever fielded. He hasn't realised he's running for Mayor of London, not Mayor of Hertfordshire. Londoners don't fall for the sort of rubbish he spouts.
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He sure is. However, in the market in the link, to finish 2nd, he is as near a certainty as can be. It's also a certainty that Rose won't beat him. As I say, it's free money.
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London mayoral voting intention:
Khan (LAB): 53% Bailey (CON): 28% Berry (GRN): 7% Porritt (LDEM): 7% Gammons (UKIP): 2% Reid (WEP): 1% via @OpiniumResearch , 17 - 20 Mar |
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https://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-landslide-london-mayor-election-evening-standard-poll-b925519.html
. Sadiq Khan set for a landslide and may be re-elected mayor in first round of voting, says Evening Standard poll |
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2% gammons,can I get on ew first 5?
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Dunno, but he should do ok in Hammersmith (I'll get my coat).
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And Newham?
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