2021 London Mayoral Election

Vote for Binface! You know he is a better candidate than those diddies

Laurence Fox represents the silent majority. The entire 5% to 10% or so of the population that makes up the silent majority (though he would naturally take a lesser vote as some of the silent majority would vote for other parties)

Don't vote for him for Fox sake!

5% of Londoners polled can't remember how they voted in the EU reffy

Of those Londoners polled, the highest proportion thought Khan would work best alongside the UK government out of the prominent candidates

Source?

savanta comres

Thank you very much! Must be shy leavers who thought "prefer not to tell" is too boring a choice.

"Prefer not to say", sorry.

prefer not to say was 3%

I know.

Found the poll thanks to you.

The two poll stats I quoted are a rather damning insight into the level of intelligence that is now prevalent in London...

The don't remember thing I wouldn't put too highly and see it as too damning. It could legit simply be people who thought the other option was too boring.

As for the other one: Yeah, that one seems truly astonishing at first thought, but then....Labour voters, am I right? What do you expect?

A large proportion of the population don't follow politics, or the news in any meaningful way. That result in London even surprises me though.

Smart people undoubtedly lean towards Tories. The Conservative party needs to be careful though to not overplay their hand on things like the supposed culture war, or there could be a shift like has happened in the USA. Where the Grand Old Party, the Party of American Exceptionalism, has allowed itself to become a bizarre cesspit of stupidity in the hunt for pleb and misfit votes. It's tragic to see.

"He (Brian Rose) will be lucky to get 2% of the vote."

I think he'll get more. He's the second most bet on candidate at betfair at half a million pounds. I can't believe that's all him. Everyone who has bet on him is likely to vote for him if they have a vote. Plus he must have some genuine youtube followers. And everyone who picks him as first choice won't choose Khan as second choice, because Khan is the most likely opponent if Rose survives to the second round, and voting for Khan as second choice would then damage their chances. So I question whether Khan's position is as strong as everyone says it is.

May 4, 2021 -- 10:17AM, Arbu wrote:

"He (Brian Rose) will be lucky to get 2% of the vote."I think he'll get more. He's the second most bet on candidate at betfair at half a million pounds. I can't believe that's all him. Everyone who has bet on him is likely to vote for him if they have a vote. Plus he must have some genuine youtube followers. And everyone who picks him as first choice won't choose Khan as second choice, because Khan is the most likely opponent if Rose survives to the second round, and voting for Khan as second choice would then damage their chances. So I question whether Khan's position is as strong as everyone says it is.

What percentage of the first preference vote do you think Brian Rose and Sadiq Khan will achieve?

Maybe first round: Khan 30%, Bailey 24%, Rose 8%
Second round: Khan 40%, Bailey 36%

I think it will be...

Khan 45%
Bailey 26%
Rose 1-2%
Others 27%

The prankster chap might get 3rd.

London Mayoral Voting Intention:

Khan (LAB): 48% (-3)
Bailey (CON): 29% (=)
Porritt (LDM): 8% (=)
Berry (GRN): 7% (-1)
Fox (REC): 3% (NEW)

Via
@OpiniumResearch
, 28 Apr - 3 May.
Changes w/ 7-10 Apr.

Difficult to know how any particular minor candidate is faring because some polling companies have an annoying habit of prompting for some of them and grouping the rest under "other candidate". Some cracking betting markets on this event though on both main exchanges.

Indeed... ask what you want to hear in
the answer!

We want to know how Binface is polling!

Over 1% by most polls.

Bizarre reading twitter threads how
important first choice is to some folk.

Hopefully! Look at that poll today, you would think that Fox is miles clear of the rest but he almost certainly isn't. In fact, as they prompted specifically for him by name, 3% looks pretty poor. Now if they had prompted for Binface instead of Fox, I wouldn't have been surprised in the least if he had also got 3% or thereabouts.

London Mayoral Voting Intention:

Khan (LAB): 43% (-4)
Bailey (CON): 31% (+5)
Berry (GRN): 10% (+1)
Porritt (LDM): 5% (-2)
Fox (REC): 3% (-1)
Rose (LRP): 2% (-1)

2nd Round:

Sadiq Khan 59% (-7)
Shaun Bailey 41% (+7)

Via
@YouGov
, 2-4 May.
Changes w/ 1 Apr.

Binface twitter message


https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1389570722134204418?s=19

Gammons and Mandu Reid are on 1% leaving 4% for others.

Make your vote COUNT

That "others" percentage total has doubled from 2 to 4 in a month. It must be either the prankster or the Count.

May 4, 2021 -- 10:45AM, politicspunter wrote:

I think it will be...Khan 45%Bailey 26%Rose 1-2%Others 27%

Maybe you're right. It seems so strange that the odds on Rose to win have been so short. But perhaps it is just him who's responsible for that. He stands to lose a huge amount of money on this endeavour.

Rose has been backing himself in order to shorten his price dramatically, then using that as an election tool, announcing he was second favourite to Khan. Some of on here have been actively involved in that market, laying Rose prices.

I wonder why the odds at smarkets have been particularly low. I would have thought that Rose would have chosen betfair if he wanted to make it look like he was second favourite. Maybe he's betting at high street bookmakers who are then hedging themselves out at smarkets.

Rose has also been betting at Smarkets in the multiple London Mayoral markets they have.

https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share

This one in particular has been pretty crazy for smaller amounts.

He has been betting at all the major high street bookmakers also.

The sheep pile on because they don't understand.

Same as trump backers, even after
he had lost, even during his attempted
coup.

This is the beauty of politics betting, real value can be found if you just do some studying.

Politics betting is like a throwback
to early days on betfair.

has the soppy bailey finally  worked out that johnson doesnt want him to win,he wants to remain the only tory who can win in london,gawd if an unelectable idiot like bailey can win,anyone can win ,diminishing johnsons achievement

London Mayoral Voting Intention:

Khan (LAB): 41% (=)
Bailey (CON): 29% (+1)
Porritt (LDM): 8% (=)
Omilana (IND): 6% (+1)
Berry (GRN): 5% (-1)

Via @SavantaComRes, 29 Apr - 4 May.
Changes w/ 13-19 Apr.

The prankster!!!

YouTuber
@NikoOmilana
, whose flagship policy is to tell Boris Johnson to 'shush', polling in 4th place here, ahead of the Greens...

Not far from lib dems in some polls

Could be fun at the COUNT

theres a good article  by robert hutton today getting out and asking londoners why they wont vote tory,
snippets include sick of hearing johnson /tory.s banging on about brexit,hartlepool,red wall,ridiculed for giving eastern european students jobs as nanny,s

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14862719/londons-old-street-sealed-off-by-police/

LONDON’S Old Street has been sealed off by police after a man was stabbed outside Moorfields Eye Hospital.

Traffic in the area is at a standstill and the Hospital is asking people not to attend their A&E while emergency services deal with the incident.

Cops say they were called to Old Street Roundabout at 5:40pm to reports of a stabbing.

Pictures show a huge police presence with cordons hung along and across the street.

Meanwhile video from above shows tens of cars in gridlock traffic after Great Eastern Street and Old Street Roundabout were shut.

Cars are reportedly backed up all the way to Kings Cross.

Drivers on social media have said they are sitting in "hell" with some stuck in standstill traffic for "well over an hour."

One witness wrote on Twitter: “Massive stabbing outside Moorfields eye hospital.

“Old bill have closed all the roads. Traffic is now seriously f**ked up.”

In a statement Moorfields Hospital said: "Please do not visit our A&E at City Road.

"The area is currently blocked off by the police due to an incident in the area.

"If you have an eye emergency, sudden sight loss or injury, please log on to speak to one of our doctors online first."

A MET police spokesperson said: "A man has been taken to hospital with stab injuries.

"His condition is not thought to be life threatening.

"Enquiries are ongoing."

ffs, go and start another Covid thread you clown

London Mayoral Voting Intention:

Khan (LAB): 40% (-4)
Bailey (CON): 29% (-6)
Porritt (LDM): 8% (+3)
Berry (GRN): 8% (+2)
Fox (REC): 3% (+3)

Via
@PanelbaseMD
, 4-5 May.
Changes w/ 2016 (Party Vote)

Make your vote COUNT


Reall wish I had a vote, best UK election
for ages.

Me too. A brilliant and varied bunch of betting markets with some fantastic characters amongst the candidates. If Binface beats Piers Corbyn I will be COUNTing the readies

https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads
.

This is the market.

"The sheep pile on because they don't understand."

Yes, but once they've piled on, they're going to vote for him aren't they? Assuming they're in London. That's why I think he might not do so badly. They probably don't admit to pollsters that they're going to vote for him.

Most won't have a vote in London mayor
Same as they couldn't vote in usa
election.

May 6, 2021 -- 10:10AM, Arbu wrote:

"The sheep pile on because they don't understand."Yes, but once they've piled on, they're going to vote for him aren't they? Assuming they're in London. That's why I think he might not do so badly. They probably don't admit to pollsters that they're going to vote for him.

Arbu, I have tried to explain to you. The money on the Betfair market is mostly a combination of Brian Rose own stakes and guys like me who have been laying the ludicrously short odds. How many of the transactions in that market are people that support Rose and also qualify to cast a vote for him? Besides, even if they have backed him and qualify to vote, doesn't necessarily mean they will actually support him on the ballot.

Just read about the boiler room
plug 3rd hand and jump in
, telling their mates and
spamming the bet elsewhere
hoping to get others involved.


Then, when it's over, you can
read their thoughts, if they
don't just come back as somebody
else, with 20 odd posts in 10 years
or so.

Brian Rose has personally paid off the rest of my mortgage with this market.  I'd vote for him if I lived in London on that basis alone..

BINDEPENDENCE DAY

make your vote COUNT

has laurence fox got a vote yet ?

May 6, 2021 -- 8:40PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

BINDEPENDENCE DAYmake your vote COUNT

I will be gutted if he finishes last. Certain he won't though

i voted binface, he has at least one vote

Good to see you back again jollyswagman , you were missed

i would have voted for you lfc if it was possible

. that made me chuckle , good man

Yourself , Dr Crippen , anxious , maybe akabula
All these fine and good posters are all drifting away :( .......

May 6, 2021 -- 8:53PM, jollyswagman wrote:

i voted binface, he has at least one vote

The money is in the post

Binface on twitter....


START THE COUNT.

plunge on Shaun

Khan out to 1.04 on rumours of
Labour apathy...

39 — 37 Khan bailey

Still some counting

Must be conservative areas counted early  , astounding drop in percentage

did laurence fox get any votes ?

May 7, 2021 -- 6:04PM, morpteh mackem wrote:

did laurence fox get any votes ?

No I boxed his ears off.

Count Binface lost against Brian Rose it seems

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

Count Binface in 9th place after day one of COUNT with 12,098 votes (1%)

As long as he beats Piers Corbyn

https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads
.

Binface currently leads Corbyn, 12,098 to 10,285.

Stop the COUNT


https://twitter.com/Realheadcase1/status/1390394431942139904?s=19

Managed to lay a bit more rose
at 1000.

Seemed wrong not to, Dec at 10pm?

1.01 gubbed on rose for 6 quid

Count Binface
@CountBinface

THE COUNT IS AT THE COUNT.

Count Binface
@CountBinface

THE COUNT IS AT THE COUNT.

Reason for the delay here at the City & East - staff found three unopened boxes of votes after everything else had been counted


Lol

All filled in already for Trump?

Why you can trust Sky News
Sadiq Khan has been re-elected for a second term as London mayor.

He triumphed over Conservative Shaun Bailey, gaining 1,013,721 first preference votes compared to his nearest challenger's 893,051.

Mr Khan received 192,313 second preference votes, with Mr Bailey picking up 84,550,

This meant Mr Khan won by 55.2% to Mr Bailey's 44.8%.

Enjoy.

Quick settlement too!

Faster than the much delayed announcment


COUNT The winnings!

#LondonMayor2021

SADIQ KHAN wins 2021 Mayor of London election.

Khan - 1,013,721 (38.8%)
Bailey - 893,051 (34.2%)
Berry - 197,976 (7.6%)
Porritt - 111,716 (4.3%)
Fox - 47,634 (1.8 %)
Count Binface - 24,775 (0.9 %)

Turnout: 2,609,393 (47%)

Rose 31,111

Efficient markets eh?

Not in politics, not anymore

The Payout on first preference votes for Khan is wrong.

The winner is shown as falling into the 40% to 44.99% bracket, but the actual figure is in the 35% to 39.99% range

Somebody will tell them and they will
sort it.

Unbelievable that Sean Bailey got so many votes,he was a complete loon..

Slightly more % than zac.

I don't like Khan anyway another wooden centrist... but that Bailey was appauling...

We don't have an elected mayor
in Durham.

They wanted to link Newcastle, gateshead
Sunderland and Durham and areas
in between, but couldn't get
agreement ( I think Gateshead caused
it to be scrapped)

Government then looked at lots of
elected mayor's controlling budgets..

Who knows what will happen.

Labour have just lost Durham council now tory they lost 21 seats..

We've had independant councillors
for years here where I live.

Local battle was lib dem v indys.

Labour has been split for years
Not just by ideology but by pettiness.

Should be fun now, and hopefully
our indies can get stuck in,
and do some good.

Count Binface for President!

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/count-binface-london-mayoral-elections-sadiq-khan-laurence-fox-shaun-bailey-b979357.html
.

London mayoral election amount spent per vote:
@CountBinface
40p
@SadiqKhan
42p
@sianberry
44p
@ShaunBaileyUK
48p
@LuisaPorritt
£2.24
@Gammons4London
£3.14
@LozzaFox
£8.02
@BrianBRose
£13.69
(Shaun Bailey spent most: £428,765, but got £10k deposit back)