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2021 London Mayoral Election
2021 London Mayoral Election
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Replies: 175
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Source?
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savanta comres
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Thank you very much! Must be shy leavers who thought "prefer not to tell" is too boring a choice.
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"Prefer not to say", sorry.
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prefer not to say was 3%
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I know.
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Found the poll thanks to you.
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The two poll stats I quoted are a rather damning insight into the level of intelligence that is now prevalent in London...
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The don't remember thing I wouldn't put too highly and see it as too damning. It could legit simply be people who thought the other option was too boring.
As for the other one: Yeah, that one seems truly astonishing at first thought, but then....Labour voters, am I right? What do you expect? |
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A large proportion of the population don't follow politics, or the news in any meaningful way. That result in London even surprises me though.
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Smart people undoubtedly lean towards Tories. The Conservative party needs to be careful though to not overplay their hand on things like the supposed culture war, or there could be a shift like has happened in the USA. Where the Grand Old Party, the Party of American Exceptionalism, has allowed itself to become a bizarre cesspit of stupidity in the hunt for pleb and misfit votes. It's tragic to see.
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"He (Brian Rose) will be lucky to get 2% of the vote."
I think he'll get more. He's the second most bet on candidate at betfair at half a million pounds. I can't believe that's all him. Everyone who has bet on him is likely to vote for him if they have a vote. Plus he must have some genuine youtube followers. And everyone who picks him as first choice won't choose Khan as second choice, because Khan is the most likely opponent if Rose survives to the second round, and voting for Khan as second choice would then damage their chances. So I question whether Khan's position is as strong as everyone says it is. |
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Maybe first round: Khan 30%, Bailey 24%, Rose 8%
Second round: Khan 40%, Bailey 36% |
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I think it will be...
Khan 45% Bailey 26% Rose 1-2% Others 27% |
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The prankster chap might get 3rd.
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London Mayoral Voting Intention:
Khan (LAB): 48% (-3) Bailey (CON): 29% (=) Porritt (LDM): 8% (=) Berry (GRN): 7% (-1) Fox (REC): 3% (NEW) Via @OpiniumResearch , 28 Apr - 3 May. Changes w/ 7-10 Apr. |
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Difficult to know how any particular minor candidate is faring because some polling companies have an annoying habit of prompting for some of them and grouping the rest under "other candidate". Some cracking betting markets on this event though on both main exchanges.
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Indeed... ask what you want to hear in
the answer! |
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We want to know how Binface is polling!
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Over 1% by most polls.
Bizarre reading twitter threads how important first choice is to some folk. |
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Hopefully! Look at that poll today, you would think that Fox is miles clear of the rest but he almost certainly isn't. In fact, as they prompted specifically for him by name, 3% looks pretty poor. Now if they had prompted for Binface instead of Fox, I wouldn't have been surprised in the least if he had also got 3% or thereabouts.
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London Mayoral Voting Intention:
Khan (LAB): 43% (-4) Bailey (CON): 31% (+5) Berry (GRN): 10% (+1) Porritt (LDM): 5% (-2) Fox (REC): 3% (-1) Rose (LRP): 2% (-1) 2nd Round: Sadiq Khan 59% (-7) Shaun Bailey 41% (+7) Via @YouGov , 2-4 May. Changes w/ 1 Apr. |
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Binface twitter message
https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1389570722134204418?s=19 |
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Gammons and Mandu Reid are on 1% leaving 4% for others.
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Make your vote COUNT
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That "others" percentage total has doubled from 2 to 4 in a month. It must be either the prankster or the Count.
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Rose has been backing himself in order to shorten his price dramatically, then using that as an election tool, announcing he was second favourite to Khan. Some of on here have been actively involved in that market, laying Rose prices.
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I wonder why the odds at smarkets have been particularly low. I would have thought that Rose would have chosen betfair if he wanted to make it look like he was second favourite. Maybe he's betting at high street bookmakers who are then hedging themselves out at smarkets.
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Rose has also been betting at Smarkets in the multiple London Mayoral markets they have.
https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share This one in particular has been pretty crazy for smaller amounts. |
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He has been betting at all the major high street bookmakers also.
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The sheep pile on because they don't understand.
Same as trump backers, even after he had lost, even during his attempted coup. |
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This is the beauty of politics betting, real value can be found if you just do some studying.
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Politics betting is like a throwback
to early days on betfair. |
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has the soppy bailey finally worked out that johnson doesnt want him to win,he wants to remain the only tory who can win in london,gawd if an unelectable idiot like bailey can win,anyone can win ,diminishing johnsons achievement
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London Mayoral Voting Intention:
Khan (LAB): 41% (=) Bailey (CON): 29% (+1) Porritt (LDM): 8% (=) Omilana (IND): 6% (+1) Berry (GRN): 5% (-1) Via @SavantaComRes, 29 Apr - 4 May. Changes w/ 13-19 Apr. The prankster!!! |
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YouTuber
@NikoOmilana , whose flagship policy is to tell Boris Johnson to 'shush', polling in 4th place here, ahead of the Greens... |
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Not far from lib dems in some polls
Could be fun at the COUNT |
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theres a good article by robert hutton today getting out and asking londoners why they wont vote tory,
snippets include sick of hearing johnson /tory.s banging on about brexit,hartlepool,red wall,ridiculed for giving eastern european students jobs as nanny,s |