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2024 USA Presidential Election
2024 USA Presidential Election
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I guess so Dave. However, if Trump party stands, all that would achieve is splitting the GOP vote. Come to think of it, maybe some normal traditional GOP members might vote democrat to ensure Trump cannot win any state. I could see the Democrats winning every single state in 2024 if Trump party stands.
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I was wondering, on this market...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178176964 If you were confident you would make it to 2024, as a long term tax free investment plan, it would be virtually impossible to lose by laying "Any Other" and backing the other two options at 100% or less. |
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4% over 4 years doesn't appeal
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Yes, I guess you would have to pick your moment in the future as you suggested earlier, perhaps when Trump announces a new party?
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Risk losing the bonus 4% of course
If you can lay all three, returning your cash, and getting the 4% profit, then it's a good start. |
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I had a look round other bookie/exchanges to see if anyone else offers the any other/independent option on their market but it seems only betbald do.
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Former President Donald Trump remains committed to reelecting Republicans and is not currently considering launching a third party, a senior Trump adviser said Sunday while noting that things could change.
From cnn |
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Ah, I wonder if he will feel the same way if he is convicted by the senate?
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Money for Biden today for next President, 5s across the bookies boards. Smarkets go 6.6 but I guess that won't last much longer.
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Former President Trump is still working to assemble a full legal team for his Senate impeachment trial, sources say, even as he has begun to craft a defense strategy with Butch Bowers, the lawyer who has agreed to represent him in the historic proceedings.
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Ah, Bowers. Hopefully he will not be remembered like his namesake who perished in the Antarctic battling impossible odds.
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..
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/2024-us-presidential-election-odds-kamala-harris-is-early-favourite-and-a-solid-value-bet-280121-171.html .. Dunno if he posts on here? |
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Paul makes some good solid points. The problem I have is that I don't want to tie up my money for four years in a market where you are not guaranteed to get a run. There is a strong possibility of either Biden or Harris being the Democrat nominee so why not just trade in the market as I have done? Set a target low and high price for both Biden and Harris then just keep an eye on the inevitable movements. As an example, when the Betfair market opened, I commented up thread that some of the prices were crazy. Harris went from 4.5 to 7.0 and back to 4.5 within an hour. Right now I am +774 Biden, +117 Harris, +74 Trump and level the rest.
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I think it is worthwhile looking round the non MAGA Trumpets contenders in the GOP. If they dump Trump (which they will eventually) a new younger contender could emerge, hopefully with time to build a decent campaign. I could see a person like that being very well funded.
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I have but one vote, and I will vote for..............O **** I have no vote in the USA so WFTF is this fred really worth, Nada, Nothing, Zilch, etc. So cut the BS and concentrate on the market, prejudice has no place in betting.
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I know who most of the golf tipsters were on betfair by forum name
But not Paul... Surely he must have done at some point as it seemed to be betfairs main pool of recruitment. |
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Done.... Been on forum.
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https://www.politico.com/interactives/2021/magazine-nikki-haleys-choice/
I think Nicki Haley is definitely a contender. |
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When you look around all the prices for the Republican nominee, admittedly a decision on that will be made in around three years time, I look at the Haley price of 9.0 and think to myself that could be value.
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What price will the Trump party be ?
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Then I look at prices for the Presidential winner outright and I see Donald Trump at 11.0. He couldn't win when he had everything in his favour, incumbency, voter suppression, the lot. What possible chance can he have of winning in 2024? No chance at all. Laying the current price of 11.0 is a safe tax free three year investment.
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The only reason Don is not president is because of CO VID and his poor handling of it .
Could well set up his own Party , might be 11 PP that is not even knowing if he will run 11 could well be a bet to lay IMVHO . |
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Republican party sh1t scared to say a word against him
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His next Move will be his Own social Media platform , like to hazard a guess at the followers he would have on that worldwide ? Toned down Trumpism , it might well be the place to be for many
whats more could certainly lead to funding any election campaign .  Don Trumpton is not a man to write off PP not imo anyway . |
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The only folks consistently mentioned in polls so far for the Republican nominee are Donald Trump, Donald Trump Junior, Mike Pence, Nicki Haley, Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz. If the Republican Party put up a candidate for the Trump extreme right of the party such as Trump, Trump junior or Cruz they will lose (Cruz they will lose- might hear that again in the future
 ) These candidates could win the nominee but would certainly be defeated by any democrat in the Presidential election as they have no appeal to moderate republicans or independents. That leaves...Mitt Romney- not getting any younger (but looks it), has failed before when nominee, doesn't appeal to extreme right wing. Mike Pence- A definite possible but again, has fallen foul of the extreme right wing of the party. Nicki Haley- One of the few who left the Trump administration with credit and before it was too late. |
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There are plenty of possible alternatives who are not tainted by the Trump era and hopefully some of them will be in the shake up.
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Republican party sh1t scared to say a word against him
this is true - Trump has an iron grip on the GOP. The initial boldness displayed by the likes of McConnell has all but disappeared - they have to do what he wants or he'll destroy them by starting another party. He's the only MAGA-type candidate who could mount a credible challenge to a Democrat president - people over here don't realise what a huge celebrity he was in the USA prior to 2016 - 10 years on prime time TV. Another MAGA candidate - like Jr for instance - just doesn't have the charisma or appeal. |
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^obviously the GOP ticket is needed for a MAGA candidate - an independent would just diminish the GOP vote and allow the Democrats an easy reelection.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-56035299
How Mike Pence became a villain in Trump world |
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1360715717058961409/photo/1
Enthusiasm for Trump dropping. |
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‘There’s Nothing Left’: Why Thousands of Republicans Are Leaving the Party
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/politics/republicans-leaving-party.html |
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I was looking through Republican Senators this morning to try and narrow down the possibles that may consider running for Republican nominee. First of all a short, long list, trying to rule out those that are mostly retiring or too old (didn't stop Biden though!). Obviously, plenty of of others out with these Senators may throw their hat in the ring, folks like governors, independents (Trump eg).
Dan Sullivan Tom Cotton Marco Rubio Rick Scott Todd Young Joni Ernst Jerry Moran Rand Paul Bill Cassidy Cindy Hyde-Smith Josh Hawley Steve Daines Ben Sasse Thom Tillis John Hoeven Kevin Cramer James Lankford John Thune Mike Rounds Bill Hagerty Ted Cruz Mike Lee Ron Johnson (23) Feel free to eliminate any from the list for any decent reason. Some links worth a look at... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators |
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If Trump doesn't run then Hawley looks like the poster boy for the MAGAs -a right wing Evangelical, strong conspiracy theory credentials - doesn't have to defend his seat until 2024 so can be a loose cannon until then.
But if he got the nomination he'd get wiped out by Biden. |
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Yep, Hawley is in that Trump bracket along with candidates like Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson.
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I think Cruz is too obvious a charlatan - Hawley might actually believe what he says.
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Look at Trump though, a three time bankrupt with a dreadful moral record, some very distasteful sexual allegations hanging over him and they still voted him in.
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Trump Emerges From Impeachment Trial With Sturdy Backing From GOP Voters
https://morningconsult.com/2021/02/16/trump-gop-support-impeachment-poll/ |
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Trump attacks "dour" leader McConnell
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56092781 Trump signals his intent to split the GOP in two. |
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Trump taking a wrecking ball to the GOP. McConnell's only himself to blame - had the chance to neutralise Trump but failed to take it.
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