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When will B/f settle presidency market?
When will B/f settle presidency market?
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Replies: 2,073
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Dave, I'm going to find you a magnifying glass so you can read my username with precision.
And politicspunter, I'm going to find you one too. X |
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*bringing down the procedures of the 12th in case of bad faith*
but where it goes from that very dark place is, imo, anyone's guess - not simply straight to Pence, a fight so big it's only been seen once before. |
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And if someone wants to say I'm talking crazy - ofc I am, the whole thing is fking insane - that doesn't mean it can't happen. It's a very, very long shot - but it's there.
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Once again, though FXDUX is not saying what I want to hear, I don't understand why people aren't just appreciating the time and effort he is putting in.
It is his opinion and he has made that quite clear. I have found it interesting to read. Is Pence value at 1000? Probably. If the same series of events happened 1000 times would there be a time Pence became POTUS? Will I be backing him? No Make your own decisions, but take FXs info and do what you want with it. No reason to slate him for giving factual info. For me the whole US system is very confusing. I even know somebody who has lived in the USA for 20 years and still doesn't understand it. |
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Remarkable back up again.
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Rightwing libertarians everywhere telling everyone there's an alternative view to everything,amazingly they are 99% white middle aged/older disaster capitalists...who could deny that!!
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For those who don't know it - The Lincoln Project - is a US-PAC run by high-profile Republicans (mostly Advisers, Lawyers, Strategists) opposed to Trump and many of his policies, these people actively opposed Trump in the 2020 election by running ads and campaigning against him and were very successful given their inside knowledge of and insider-status as GOPers.
On October 20 they wrote an editorial in the Washington Post (here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/lincoln-project-oped-republicans-stand-up-for-america/ ) In the context of where we are now, consider the following line and specifically the highlighted wording: "Some of you have chosen. You are already at work on this lawless and amoral project, litigating in the states to suppress the vote. Many of you are planning to replace slates of electors to win another term for Trump. Many of you are planning to snatch an election victory from the people by any means necessary." |
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/lincoln-project-oped-republicans-stand-up-for-america/
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ffs
lincoln-project-oped-republicans-stand-up-for-america/ |
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When these people write they are writing to a small but highly influential group - GOP insiders. These are the ones who are publicly leading the way inside the GOP against Trump. They are not looking for mass appeal, to feed in to established stories. They write about what's actually going on - and they know because they are inside the rooms where it happens.
That's why those words should not be taken lightly - because this is going on. |
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"Planning to replace slates of electors"
That is the nightmare - the path is clear, it's been aired publicly by Don Jr., but evidently has been discussed and gamed out inside GOP strategy meetings. From Trump's talk in the buildup to the vote to his more pointed ones since he's lost conventionally, the immediate firing of Esper (Defense, important), Barr's unprecedented instruction to prosecutors asking them to investigate potential fraud (first time it's ever happened before an official result - prompting the resignation of the head of the Election Crimes Diviion, and... Pence bulldozing straight through any hint of times past when stating, in effect, that Trump would be continuing as President for another term. Can they do it? Yes, definitely they can try. Doesn't mean they eventually will / there'll come a point when it can't be sustained. But until then, it's all up-in-the-air, except two contradictory things, 1) Biden has won the Conventional Electoral College, 2) Trump is planning on staying. Square that Circle. |
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Good luck to anyone pitching all their hope and Shekels on the 12th
The settlement of this market does not depend on who the next inaugurated President is. Once all votes and recounts are finalised the market may be settled imho and the market winner will be declared as Biden |
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WD
That is was I thought but now I'm not so sure. I've found some of the above posts excellent and thought provoking (some nice insults to!). This is an interesting read: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/ that discusses many of the issues mentioned on here and helps in explaining Trump's tactics and strategy. Trump’s strategy for this phase of the Interregnum will be a play for time as much as a concerted attempt to squelch the count and disqualify Biden votes. The courts may eventually weigh in. But by then, the forum of decision may already have moved elsewhere. The interregnum allots 35 days for the count and its attendant lawsuits to be resolved. On the 36th day, December 8, an important deadline arrives. At this stage, the actual tabulation of the vote becomes less salient to the outcome. That sounds as though it can’t be right, but it is: The combatants, especially Trump, will now shift their attention to the appointment of presidential electors. If nothing else I've learned a new word. |
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betfair allows for ignoring faithless electors in their rules. Essentially their market is 'who wins the election' even though it's called 'who will be next president'
so even though that will be a Trump strategy for stealing the elction, Biden will ultimately be settled by B/F (given he's too far ahead in key States for states' vote counts to flip outcomes) |
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Another reason why betfair aren't settling - they don't want "betfair says biden wins" publicity in the US imo. Disgrace.
Flutter also held its position as top US online operator - a key growth market for the company in recent years following the US legalisation of online gaming in 2018. Flutter said it held 46% of the online sports betting market via its FanDuel and FoxBet brands in the period, and 29% share of US online market overall. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britons-broke-records-bet-nearly-095444061.html . |
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/us/politics/voting-fraud.html
When are Betfair going to stop leaning into this crackpot, far-right nonsense? It's absolutely deranged. Over a week on now and there has not been one single successful legal challenge to the voting, they haven't managed to overturn a single vote, they haven't won a single court case since the result was confirmed. |
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There are gazillions of instances of fraud.
So much so, its taking a while to compile. |
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Ah right, they must be keeping it all secret then instead of making the whole nation aware.
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Much like Hunter's laptop, it's being suppressed.
Big tech and MSM working together to stop news being reported |
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He's gone.
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Ignore the pleb.
It's difficult to be patient but at the same time there are good opportunities to be had in the various markets still open. I've laid Trump at 42s today getting +61% of the vote share. |
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Don't spend that £2 all at once
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It's just not fair! I have had £50 sitting at 22s on that market which was just about to be matched when along came you, fats and Donny to hoover up all the prices
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Still 5.5k on Pelosi before
my lay gets taken... Tick tock |
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Being greedy at 22s
 . 40-50s is more than adequate  |
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It was at 22s and 23s and being matched before the hoover arrived
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Probably Timber backing that
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I’m already maxed out. The only think I’ve been topping up on has been the Biden over 75m votes market. Which they ought to have settled by now.
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Naw Fats, Betfair only settle markets that Trump has won...
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Reps are paying 25k for
Info on fake votes 1.5 million going to cost a few bob |
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Do they pay on Republican fraud votes?
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That seems uncertain, but
how would they know for sure which way somebody had actually voted. |
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https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1326578199661322241
Ivanka Trump decides that the media can project the winner of a state. Time to pay up, Betfair. |
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https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1326621635747713027
Another one! |
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Betfair are only settling markets if Trump wins them.
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It really is mental.
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Mr Trump ain't done he's not conceded, so therefor Sloppy Joes isn't yet the president elect
The media are giving him the win which is even more comical as they can't do no such thing, they have to certify it through the electors, there's a process I find it pretty disgusting on their part (the media) that they are stoking possible chaos |
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You don't need Trump to concede for Biden to be president-elect
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